Polite-Menorah — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

13.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$113

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 08-10 19:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

81% 8% -$52

Tech

9% 0% -$10

Sports

5% 50% +$61

Politics

4% 0% -$4

Crypto

1% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-10).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+44	$5	3¢	$1	-$4	08-05 19:52
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	+62	$5	1¢	$1	-$4	08-05 19:52
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+198	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	08-05 19:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	2	$10	19	+19	No	-$10	07-19 17:27
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	1	$5	65	+65	No	-$5	08-10 19:21
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	1	$5	62	+62	open	—	08-05 19:52
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	1	$5	198	+198	open	—	08-05 19:52
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts first half	1	$5	28	+28	No	-$5	07-19 17:28
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	1	$5	26	+26	No	-$5	07-19 17:26
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$5	71	+71	Yes	-$5	08-05 19:59
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	1	$5	15	+15	Yes	+$10	07-19 17:26
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	1	$5	12	+12	Under	-$5	07-19 17:28
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	67	+67	No	+$62	07-19 17:25
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	1	$5	44	+44	open	—	08-05 19:52
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$5	24	+24	No	-$5	08-05 19:55
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$4	11	+11	No	-$4	05-11 21:29
Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	1	$4	14	+14	No	-$4	08-10 19:21
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 3pt5	1	$3	13	+13	Under	-$3	07-19 17:28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	04-29 11:05
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	04-29 10:52
will trump say job 15 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421449	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	-$2	08-05 19:46
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 1?	1	$1	5	+5	Yes	+$4	04-30 19:37
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 1?	2	$1	10	+10	No	-$1	05-01 02:21
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 30?	1	$1	50	+50	No	-$1	04-29 10:43
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 30?	1	$1	55	+55	No	-$1	04-29 10:57
will airbnb say international during earnings call 20260803163357339	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	-$1	08-05 20:05
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$1	500	+500	No	-$1	08-08 19:45
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	1	$1	500	+500	No	-$1	04-30 21:32
will airbnb say world cup during earnings call 20260803163357338	1	$1	6	+6	Yes	-$1	08-05 20:05
will the earnings call not air 20260803163357344	1	$1	104	+104	No	-$1	08-05 20:04
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$1	333	+333	No	-$1	08-08 19:45
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 30?	1	$1	20	+20	No	-$1	04-29 10:42
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 30?	1	$1	15	+15	No	-$1	04-29 10:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 19:21:46	Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0xddc26c…
08-10 19:21:33	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	8¢	$5	0x74469c…
08-08 19:45:43	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x936d0e…
08-08 19:45:39	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x068c6e…
08-05 20:05:23	will airbnb say fiscal 10 times during earnings call 20260803163357336	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x41d801…
08-05 20:05:14	will airbnb say world cup during earnings call 20260803163357338	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x3532cf…
08-05 20:05:09	will airbnb say international during earnings call 20260803163357339	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x1e6fcc…
08-05 20:05:06	will airbnb say boutique during earnings call 20260803163357340	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3f7391…
08-05 20:04:57	will airbnb say social media during earnings call 20260803163357342	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x61dd02…
08-05 20:04:53	will airbnb say holiday during earnings call 20260803163357343	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x154f5d…
08-05 20:04:47	will the earnings call not air 20260803163357344	Yes	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0x567e21…
08-05 19:59:15	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xdcf1a8…
08-05 19:55:42	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x605689…
08-05 19:52:54	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	3¢	$5	0x272f89…
08-05 19:52:48	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x6d12e2…
08-05 19:52:27	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x8d35c5…
08-05 19:46:24	will trump say job 15 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421449	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xb8d822…
08-05 19:45:53	will trump say racist or lebron james during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421456	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x027b61…
08-05 19:45:45	will trump say stock market during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421457	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xa7a67e…
08-05 19:45:32	will trump say bitcoin crypto or cryptocurrency during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421460	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x97ee52…
08-05 19:45:24	will trumps remarks not air 20260803153421461	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x3bdc47…
07-19 17:29:16	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd4baa0…
07-19 17:29:04	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x42754b…
07-19 17:28:54	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x3e295a…
07-19 17:28:42	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xb302e9…
07-19 17:28:06	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts first half	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xb6f3ea…
07-19 17:27:40	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xab9a43…
07-19 17:26:40	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x1f992e…
07-19 17:26:30	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x8b0490…
07-19 17:26:03	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xedc7e3…
07-19 17:25:27	Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	67	7¢	$5	0xd115d4…
05-11 21:31:25	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x40022a…
05-11 21:29:45	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x6140f1…
05-01 02:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x86fce7…
05-01 02:20:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x919ad5…
04-30 21:32:04	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc8e3b9…
04-30 19:37:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x3e32f1…
04-30 19:12:40	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x89bdc1…
04-30 19:12:38	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xdddc1c…
04-29 11:09:22	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x37d10c…
04-29 11:05:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x19f223…
04-29 11:05:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xa27074…
04-29 11:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x7573d3…
04-29 11:02:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xbe189c…
04-29 10:58:36	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on April 30?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xa7ef51…
04-29 10:58:08	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xc19c9e…
04-29 10:57:02	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0xf08191…
04-29 10:56:58	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x26613d…
04-29 10:52:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x548e2a…
04-29 10:43:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x61c9a6…
04-29 10:42:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa4b225…