Haunting-Thought — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$4

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

118 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$884

$1.20K lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$44

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-28 22:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

46% 100% +$2

Politics

31% 100% +$2

Crypto

16% 100% +$1

Tech

7% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+55	$39	50¢	$27	-$12	10-20 09:02
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+16	$16	99¢	$16	+$0	10-28 22:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$94	47	47	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	3	$85	43	43	+0	No	+$0	08-14 18:09
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$85	43	43	+0	No	+$0	10-03 04:41
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$80	48	48	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 10:50
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	1	$48	48	0	+48	Yes	+$0	09-22 15:45
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	09-16 03:37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$47	47	0	+47	No	+$0	09-14 18:56
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	1	$47	47	0	+47	Yes	+$0	09-03 16:14
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$43	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	08-20 17:15
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$43	44	0	+44	No	+$0	08-17 00:27
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$43	43	0	+43	No	+$0	08-15 06:56
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$42	43	0	+43	No	+$0	08-05 12:39
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$39	55	0	+55	open	—	10-20 09:02
Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	3	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	08-31 16:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	05-30 23:58
Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	05-13 03:44
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	08-28 05:14
will hyperliquid dip to 28 in march	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	03-31 03:27
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	07-31 01:37
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	1	$16	17	0	+17	No	+$0	06-29 10:48
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	06-30 02:59
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	10-28 22:05
will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	07-31 21:15
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	04-29 06:37
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$0	09-30 07:37
will bitcoin reach 97pt5k in september 2026	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$0	09-29 15:00
will solana dip to 40 in january 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	01-23 15:11
will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	2	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	04-20 08:06
will ethereum dip to 1000 in january 2026 651	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	01-11 06:03
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	06-26 11:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 22:05:08	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x35ff78…
10-20 09:02:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	55	71¢	$39	0x80354c…
10-05 10:50:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	48	84¢	$40	0x18b815…
10-05 04:14:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0x2f9284…
10-03 04:41:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xbdbbeb…
09-30 19:35:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x7cb3dc…
09-30 07:37:38	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x6cc9c2…
09-29 16:25:02	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xb8bdf1…
09-29 15:00:20	will bitcoin reach 97pt5k in september 2026	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x760952…
09-27 05:54:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	43	99¢	$42	0x6fffdf…
09-26 16:05:53	will bitcoin reach 97pt5k in september 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2b7d20…
09-22 15:45:24	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x057c1a…
09-16 03:37:33	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0xe2d103…
09-14 18:56:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x305b01…
09-07 13:03:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0xc72ac7…
09-05 17:33:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0x95ace0…
09-03 16:14:58	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x11b51a…
08-31 16:00:01	Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7b5915…
08-31 14:49:52	Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5b0622…
08-28 05:14:09	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x4abcc5…
08-27 02:27:00	Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2b5583…
08-23 17:21:31	Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in August?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0e752b…
08-20 17:15:28	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0xeaa6b8…
08-17 00:27:28	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0x8e3f1b…
08-15 06:56:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0xeaa5bb…
08-14 18:09:04	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb8f0b6…
08-14 17:15:15	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x530cb2…
08-09 22:21:21	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0x5bc727…
08-05 12:39:32	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	43	99¢	$42	0x9d54b2…
08-03 17:52:53	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x720216…
08-03 14:16:38	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3f5938…
07-31 21:15:15	will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x009e3e…
07-31 01:37:21	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x783370…
07-30 21:20:18	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb17825…
07-29 23:57:24	will nvda reach 224 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xbddb17…
07-29 03:38:03	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc0c3cd…
07-26 02:20:43	will spy reach 770 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x26f0d4…
07-26 00:12:07	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x82c9f2…
07-24 22:05:30	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x712294…
07-24 18:43:51	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6001eb…
07-24 08:49:51	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x7fb371…
07-24 07:59:36	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x20cb9f…
07-23 23:41:15	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7b1fea…
07-23 01:15:37	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x40bafd…
07-22 19:33:51	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5c21c5…
07-21 16:47:51	will ethereum dip to 1300 in july 2026 715	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x0c547c…
07-21 00:56:18	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3a2c3e…
06-30 02:59:31	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x65f2d5…
06-29 10:48:26	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0x8b3a75…
06-27 08:50:52	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x84ee90…
06-26 11:46:55	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3caae1…
06-26 11:33:07	will openais valuation hit low 700b by june 30	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xce65c7…
05-30 23:58:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x60598a…
05-24 23:36:35	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x36cee6…
05-17 07:08:42	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdf4f63…
05-13 03:44:39	Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xc14367…
05-11 02:18:31	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd0592d…
05-10 22:07:42	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1f0841…
05-10 10:10:14	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1984af…
05-10 08:55:15	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x6ca260…
05-10 06:18:02	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x07da44…
05-08 10:53:58	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe692a2…
04-29 06:37:24	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xe5c1b1…
04-26 23:50:36	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf0f706…
04-24 19:42:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2a9c6c…
04-23 21:18:46	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x04e96f…
04-22 09:26:10	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x75288f…
04-20 08:06:02	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc3103d…
04-19 23:37:34	Will Solana reach $130 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xbe38db…
04-19 13:19:28	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x497374…
04-19 01:18:50	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7e5118…
04-17 22:00:06	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x25ab95…
04-16 21:24:52	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x02e14a…
04-16 18:59:48	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0c5b78…
04-15 15:48:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb51769…
04-14 12:04:47	Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xa54028…
03-31 03:27:07	will hyperliquid dip to 28 in march	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xf6908c…
03-29 05:26:04	amzn above 260 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf09c79…
03-26 12:37:59	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdab8a0…
03-25 10:44:43	will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb933de…
03-21 19:43:41	will ethereum reach 3000 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd853b5…
03-19 14:24:37	googl above 350 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe5bb68…
03-19 04:02:47	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 712	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x84ed0b…
03-17 02:09:45	nvda above 220 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaa7616…
03-16 00:27:01	will xrp reach 3pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x2b03c5…
03-13 11:26:17	will xrp reach 3 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x33f293…
03-11 21:49:59	aapl above 320 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x05f241…
03-11 04:15:31	will moonshot have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x763a78…
03-10 02:59:13	will tesla be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1cc83b…
03-08 01:13:45	bank of england increases interest rates after march 2026 meeting 393	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x90d62e…
03-06 17:56:31	amzn above 260 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0cf7fb…
03-06 01:58:19	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa924ed…
03-04 07:32:35	will tesla be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x89d40b…
03-03 07:25:21	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe37306…
02-24 11:58:48	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1e3afe…
02-23 10:54:30	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x23e3a0…
02-21 19:43:48	will gold gc hit high 6400 by end of february 581 221 834 595 555	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcb0ff3…
02-21 04:46:18	will silver si hit high 170 by end of february 258 575 377	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x5b6362…
02-14 23:34:25	nflx above 140 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc82723…
02-13 15:58:13	will ethereum reach 3400 in february 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x583b45…