Natural-Start — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

179

lifetime

Volume

$14.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$83

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 05-08 04:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

64% 100% +$0

Sports

32% — —

Crypto

2% 100% +$0

Politics

2% 100% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bad bunny video becomes most viewed sb halftime on youtube in 1st month	7	$2.7K	1,606	1,106	+500	open	—	02-17 08:38
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 125m and 150m views in its first 7 days	29	$2.1K	1,087	1,087	+0	open	—	02-14 09:32
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get at least 150m views in its first 7 days	3	$2.1K	1,056	1,056	+0	open	—	02-12 16:41
highest temperature in hong kong on april 22 2026 29c	1	$1.2K	1,197	0	+1,197	open	—	04-22 13:50
highest temperature in dallas on april 21 2026 62 63f	1	$1.2K	1,185	0	+1,185	open	—	04-22 03:31
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 27?	1	$900	901	0	+901	open	—	04-27 06:54
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 27?	2	$571	298	298	+0	open	—	04-27 13:37
highest temperature in istanbul on april 23 2026 17corhigher	1	$300	300	0	+300	open	—	04-23 15:08
dji up or down on february 26 2026	3	$292	200	200	+0	open	—	02-26 16:47
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 27?	1	$272	273	0	+273	open	—	04-27 14:53
grok memecoin wallet hits 1m before april	1	$200	209	0	+209	open	—	03-27 19:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$200	206	0	+206	No	+$6	05-08 04:27
lol blg jdg 2026 03 08	2	$122	124	0	+124	open	—	03-08 12:33
lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20	3	$122	123	0	+123	open	—	03-20 15:27
nvda close above 175 on march 23 2026	3	$122	122	0	+122	open	—	03-23 19:59
will 01xyz reach 5b in total volume by march 31 2026	6	$114	149	0	+149	open	—	03-06 06:15
highest temperature in milan on march 25 2026 17c	1	$111	111	0	+111	open	—	03-25 19:46
highest temperature in madrid on march 23 2026 17c	1	$111	111	0	+111	open	—	03-23 17:34
highest temperature in london on april 3 2026 16c	1	$111	112	0	+112	open	—	04-03 16:37
highest temperature in london on march 23 2026 15c	2	$111	111	0	+111	open	—	03-23 17:11
will taylor swift attend super bowl lx	1	$100	128	0	+128	open	—	02-08 18:33
highest temperature in moscow on april 8 2026 5c	1	$100	108	0	+108	open	—	04-08 13:06
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	03-29 20:08
will anthropic run an ad during super bowl lx	1	$100	103	0	+103	open	—	02-08 18:55
will gavin newsom attend super bowl lx	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	02-08 18:22
will apple be said at the super bowl 315	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	02-08 18:57
highest temperature in buenos aires on february 18 2026 35corbelow	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	02-18 20:22
will toyota run an ad during super bowl lx	1	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	02-08 18:56
highest temperature in moscow on april 7 2026 7c	1	$96	103	0	+103	open	—	04-07 14:07
highest temperature in sao paulo on february 18 2026 35corhigher	1	$57	57	0	+57	open	—	02-18 20:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 04:27:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x980fca…
05-08 04:27:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x47f011…
04-27 14:53:36	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	273	100¢	$272	0xd0f931…
04-27 13:37:52	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 27?	No	SELL	298	92¢	$273	0xd06d3e…
04-27 12:56:34	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 27?	No	BUY	298	100¢	$298	0xb3d12d…
04-27 06:54:52	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 27?	No	BUY	901	100¢	$900	0x00636f…
04-23 15:08:34	highest temperature in istanbul on april 23 2026 17corhigher	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xaa260f…
04-22 13:50:20	highest temperature in hong kong on april 22 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	1,197	100¢	$1,196	0x11018b…
04-22 03:31:54	highest temperature in dallas on april 21 2026 62 63f	Yes	BUY	1,185	100¢	$1,183	0x8135c9…
04-15 06:13:54	highest temperature in tokyo on april 15 2026 24corhigher	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4ca4b7…
04-08 13:06:15	highest temperature in moscow on april 8 2026 5c	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x750523…
04-08 12:52:27	highest temperature in moscow on april 8 2026 7c	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x34991b…
04-07 14:07:25	highest temperature in moscow on april 7 2026 7c	Yes	BUY	103	92¢	$96	0x666ccb…
04-07 12:08:41	highest temperature in moscow on april 7 2026 9c	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xb5f06e…
04-06 11:56:51	highest temperature in tel aviv on april 6 2026 24corhigher	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6fa5a7…
04-06 11:56:35	highest temperature in tel aviv on april 6 2026 23c	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9e087c…
04-06 11:56:21	highest temperature in tel aviv on april 6 2026 21c	Yes	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0xc84122…
04-06 11:36:39	highest temperature in moscow on april 6 2026 7c	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xd453a6…
04-06 11:06:33	highest temperature in moscow on april 6 2026 9c	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x61aeed…
04-06 10:02:01	highest temperature in moscow on april 6 2026 11c	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc6b3f9…
04-04 03:38:13	highest temperature in seoul on april 4 2026 17corhigher	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbac284…
04-03 16:37:11	highest temperature in london on april 3 2026 16c	Yes	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0x6373a9…
04-03 15:49:15	highest temperature in madrid on april 3 2026 24c	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5c81d6…
04-03 15:48:23	highest temperature in madrid on april 3 2026 25c	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x49af1b…
04-03 15:48:13	highest temperature in madrid on april 3 2026 26corhigher	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4b91b7…
03-30 09:54:04	highest temperature in lucknow on march 30 2026 39c	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7e6343…
03-30 09:53:56	highest temperature in lucknow on march 30 2026 38c	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x32e52d…
03-29 20:08:50	Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x204627…
03-29 20:08:44	Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xad387e…
03-29 20:08:18	Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x1406b8…
03-28 13:01:55	Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x1647f6…
03-27 19:07:19	grok memecoin wallet hits 1m before april	No	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x778d3e…
03-27 13:35:31	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xc1edb9…
03-26 18:32:03	Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x31d795…
03-26 10:43:29	Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbf588b…
03-25 19:46:39	highest temperature in milan on march 25 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x8fcf9a…
03-24 19:15:45	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	16¢	$4	0x53865a…
03-24 09:17:41	nikita bier out as head of product at x by march 31	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xf35ecd…
03-24 05:21:05	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0xc9acb2…
03-24 05:20:35	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	14	55¢	$8	0xd089ae…
03-23 20:29:09	highest temperature in toronto on march 23 2026 2c	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x820ad9…
03-23 20:19:07	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x69349a…
03-23 20:01:15	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x5edef3…
03-23 19:59:39	nvda close above 175 on march 23 2026	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa73111…
03-23 19:59:11	nvda close above 175 on march 23 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xaf999f…
03-23 19:58:05	nvda close above 175 on march 23 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xfec245…
03-23 19:54:51	aapl close above 250 on march 23 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd5f4db…
03-23 18:27:29	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 23 2026 31c	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x81841d…
03-23 18:26:19	will crude oil cl hit low 40 by end of march 777 183 974 725 949 716 258 533 859 313 659 847	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xdbd285…
03-23 17:34:07	highest temperature in madrid on march 23 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x510926…
03-23 17:11:05	highest temperature in london on march 23 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf996ed…
03-23 17:07:05	highest temperature in london on march 23 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xc97e02…
03-23 14:45:07	Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa50d5b…
03-23 10:08:51	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x51dcbf…
03-23 05:06:49	will mrbeast hit 119 billion views by march 31 988 776	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x97a11c…
03-23 04:44:43	will mrbeast hit 118 billion views by march 31 749 928	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x12df69…
03-23 04:43:53	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xff9d12…
03-20 19:59:47	will pltr close between 150 and 152 week march 20 2026	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x8d5da4…
03-20 19:59:31	tsla above 365 on march 20 2026	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xec8041…
03-20 19:59:19	will pltr close between 150 and 152 week march 20 2026	Yes	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0x55635e…
03-20 19:58:57	tsla above 365 on march 20 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd425fc…
03-20 19:50:03	highest temperature in toronto on march 20 2026 10c	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7cbf0c…
03-20 19:49:57	highest temperature in toronto on march 20 2026 11corhigher	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf21ea0…
03-20 19:40:39	highest temperature in nyc on march 20 2026 60 61f	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb7864f…
03-20 19:40:27	highest temperature in nyc on march 20 2026 62forhigher	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1e99b6…
03-20 19:40:15	highest temperature in nyc on march 20 2026 58 59f	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcf40ef…
03-20 19:35:19	Will Daylight launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x27d78a…
03-20 15:56:53	highest temperature in atlanta on march 20 2026 70 71f	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa28115…
03-20 15:27:21	lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20	G2 Esports	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x19b6ab…
03-20 15:23:05	lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20	G2 Esports	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x1b0296…
03-20 15:22:55	lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20	G2 Esports	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x9f6218…
03-19 20:36:41	Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x86689d…
03-19 20:34:13	Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x6aed3d…
03-19 20:32:55	highest temperature in atlanta on march 19 2026 72 73f	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x99332c…
03-19 20:32:43	highest temperature in atlanta on march 19 2026 74 75f	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x87993f…
03-16 14:26:27	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game2	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x77e055…
03-16 14:24:57	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game2	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xa6a300…
03-16 14:19:51	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game2	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x816b3c…
03-16 14:06:35	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game2	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xb47aeb…
03-16 14:01:15	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game2	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xd032e8…
03-16 13:39:33	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game1	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf8f4bf…
03-16 13:35:41	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	14	80¢	$11	0xdf7dc2…
03-16 13:32:55	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game1	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x088750…
03-16 13:30:29	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game1	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x210067…
03-16 13:29:03	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game1	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x891dc4…
03-16 13:27:59	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game1	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x0835a5…
03-16 13:23:37	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16 game1	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x4df95f…
03-15 19:02:45	will mrbeast hit 117 billion views by march 31 hzzm 934	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3c1ee9…
03-12 21:13:45	highest temperature in london on march 12 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x400426…
03-12 21:09:15	atp tien sinner 2026 03 12	Jannik Sinner	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xacbee8…
03-12 21:06:57	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xce05cd…
03-08 12:33:41	lol blg jdg 2026 03 08	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0x85aa7a…
03-08 10:57:49	lol blg jdg 2026 03 08	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xf23d2c…
03-07 10:45:11	lol jdg wb 2026 03 07	JD Gaming	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0x84e8db…
03-07 10:39:05	lol jdg wb 2026 03 07	JD Gaming	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x6ffa5c…
03-07 10:37:53	lol jdg wb 2026 03 07 game2	JD Gaming	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x1cacde…
03-07 10:32:39	lol jdg wb 2026 03 07 game2	Weibo Gaming	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x247ed5…
03-07 10:30:55	lol jdg wb 2026 03 07 game2	JD Gaming	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x365599…
03-06 06:15:51	will 01xyz reach 5b in total volume by march 31 2026	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x0d9c28…
03-04 16:57:03	will mrbeast hit 115 billion views by march 31	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf76a3d…