Reasonable-Village — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.9%

Resolved

350

Trades

784

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 10-21 22:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Other

79% 75% +$1

Crypto

16% 85% +$0

Politics

3% 50% $0

Sports

1% 75% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 16?	4	$105	52	52	+0	No	+$0	07-16 11:32
will wti dip to 45 by june 22 2026	4	$93	47	47	+0	No	$0	06-26 13:58
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 16?	5	$91	45	45	+0	No	$0	07-16 23:25
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on July 4?	5	$75	38	38	+0	No	+$0	07-03 15:50
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on July 23?	3	$73	36	36	+0	No	+$0	07-23 03:33
will bank of america say growth 5 times during earnings call 20260710144833029	5	$70	35	35	+0	Yes	$0	07-14 11:33
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?	3	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-27 20:47
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 3?	4	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-02 18:16
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	4	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-11 12:00
solana above 90 on july 7 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-07 05:09
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 16?	4	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-16 03:46
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?	3	$59	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-13 09:54
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on July 2?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-02 21:02
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 12?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-12 04:19
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C or below on June 27?	3	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-26 21:00
wti closes above 72 on july 14 2026	2	$58	29	29	+0	Yes	$0	07-14 20:03
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 13?	3	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-12 10:18
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C or below on July 14?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-13 17:40
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 28?	5	$58	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-27 23:47
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-27 19:15
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 26?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	06-26 12:05
bitcoin above 62k on july 23 2026	2	$57	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	07-23 06:41
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 12?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-12 09:05
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 8?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-08 08:35
bitcoin above 56k on july 15 2026	2	$57	28	28	+0	Yes	+$0	07-14 10:14
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 17?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-17 02:05
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on July 4?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-04 17:38
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 17?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-16 22:02
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 30?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	05-29 16:51
will bitcoin dip to 50k june 22 28 2026	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-28 00:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 22:11:41	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x919af7…
10-06 13:45:58	Will D.C. United win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x6420d3…
10-06 13:45:03	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xbb4a2d…
10-05 04:10:23	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6e795e…
09-21 03:18:13	Will D.C. United win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xef3466…
09-03 16:44:27	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xfa2531…
09-03 16:43:13	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xcf91ba…
09-03 16:42:01	Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x961f7f…
09-03 16:40:49	Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x64fafd…
09-02 19:04:28	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x52e0ae…
08-27 12:59:27	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0xf25c96…
08-14 02:36:33	Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x9855dd…
08-12 05:45:31	Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x34eb84…
07-23 16:03:36	will wti dip to 55 by july 20 2026	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xc62f9b…
07-23 15:35:18	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on July 23?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x758df5…
07-23 15:19:09	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or higher on July 23?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x8223b6…
07-23 15:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 23?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xd23f25…
07-23 11:19:09	will wti dip to 55 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x8e2859…
07-23 10:15:27	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or higher on July 23?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x70e03a…
07-23 06:41:13	bitcoin above 62k on july 23 2026	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xa23649…
07-23 06:04:12	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 23?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe4a6a2…
07-23 03:54:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 23?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdfe78c…
07-23 03:39:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 23?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xebc025…
07-23 03:33:28	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on July 23?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0xac81bf…
07-23 02:31:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 23?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7667c7…
07-22 23:50:13	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on July 23?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x8bcc56…
07-22 23:01:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on July 23?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xa8eb75…
07-22 21:34:37	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 23?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x7c092c…
07-22 21:28:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 23?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$10	0x793244…
07-22 21:27:58	bitcoin above 72k on july 23 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xfea2d4…
07-22 18:32:03	bitcoin above 62k on july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0x46f942…
07-22 15:40:39	bitcoin above 72k on july 23 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x9e70e5…
07-22 14:06:10	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 23?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe01c23…
07-22 13:18:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 23?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xa69eb3…
07-22 10:53:24	bitcoin above 62k on july 22 2026	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xd03135…
07-22 10:45:01	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 23?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xbce14d…
07-22 10:41:55	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 23?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x0405bf…
07-22 09:28:15	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or below on July 22?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xedb767…
07-22 07:06:16	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on July 23?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xbb8a9a…
07-22 05:39:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 23?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xa103aa…
07-22 03:14:34	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or below on July 22?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xf42dca…
07-22 01:19:45	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on July 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbbd152…
07-22 01:14:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on July 22?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x3858e9…
07-22 01:06:28	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 21 20260717052446994	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$20	0xff139c…
07-21 23:57:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on July 22?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8c0e6b…
07-21 22:10:01	nyc air quality index below 100 by july 21 20260717052446994	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x3bb50c…
07-21 21:34:09	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 22?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x395bd5…
07-21 18:15:34	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9c204d…
07-21 18:03:42	bitcoin above 62k on july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xedce83…
07-21 17:52:01	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x9c3c84…
07-21 17:42:03	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x72f43f…
07-21 17:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x94259f…
07-21 16:14:52	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 22?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xd3393a…
07-21 14:39:42	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x910511…
07-21 14:34:13	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xaf5ac8…
07-21 14:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$22	0x35b220…
07-21 14:25:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x810623…
07-21 12:04:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x1190fb…
07-21 08:27:25	ethereum above 1700 on july 22 2026	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x25fe6e…
07-21 08:09:51	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$18	0xe2a5f9…
07-21 05:51:22	ethereum above 1700 on july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x45733c…
07-21 00:48:28	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 43°C on July 21?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5ceeea…
07-21 00:36:22	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 43°C on July 21?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x318136…
07-20 20:48:24	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 43°C on July 21?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x67eb30…
07-20 18:25:10	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 37°C on July 21?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd647c9…
07-20 15:51:45	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 37°C on July 21?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbcbeb0…
07-20 10:46:37	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on July 20?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x580688…
07-20 10:45:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xa532ff…
07-20 06:21:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on July 20?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x8954c4…
07-20 04:55:25	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x303e99…
07-20 03:13:13	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 19	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xba231f…
07-20 01:42:04	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 19	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x92178a…
07-20 00:26:57	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 19?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb7e26b…
07-19 23:55:46	will bitcoin reach 68k july 13 19 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xef6b32…
07-19 22:19:33	will bitcoin reach 68k july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xe7ee45…
07-19 21:39:31	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 19	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x7cdc33…
07-19 19:07:31	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 19	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x9336ac…
07-19 16:30:24	solana above 90 on july 20 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x53ec04…
07-19 11:11:57	solana above 90 on july 20 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x28bb4f…
07-19 05:50:31	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 20?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xcad0df…
07-19 05:50:27	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 20?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x13c725…
07-19 05:00:04	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on July 19?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x27f2b3…
07-19 04:10:28	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 20?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x564795…
07-19 02:48:19	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 19?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x037903…
07-18 21:38:21	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on July 19?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x33a668…
07-17 21:06:27	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on July 18?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xa7327c…
07-17 20:59:04	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on July 18?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x50d7bd…
07-17 15:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 18?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x81a120…
07-17 13:08:28	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on July 18?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x36baee…
07-17 09:14:04	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x8df26b…
07-17 09:10:55	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on July 18?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x8d8809…
07-17 08:20:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 18?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6fd7d9…
07-17 07:38:19	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on July 18?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc2d321…
07-17 05:20:03	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xc8af04…
07-17 05:14:31	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xadf712…
07-17 03:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x653174…
07-17 03:16:24	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xb6a85d…
07-17 03:15:12	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x38240e…
07-17 02:08:48	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 17?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x97820a…
07-17 02:05:46	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 17?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x9a3181…