Bowed-Nickel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

63.8%

Resolved

349

Trades

408

lifetime

Volume

$470

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 10-26 15:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 98 days

Categories

Other

61% 62% -$14

Sports

20% 70% -$7

Crypto

15% 73% +$1

Politics

4% 15% -$9

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+5	$1	22¢	$1	+$0	09-16 20:59
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+2	$1	58¢	$1	+$0	09-28 15:35
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+7	$1	14¢	$1	$0	10-13 20:48
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	+8	$1	9¢	$1	$0	07-29 21:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-08-29?	2	$9	6	6	+0	Yes	+$3	08-30 00:31
Will CD Los Chankas win on 2026-05-23?	2	$8	42	42	+0	No	-$2	05-21 00:24
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	1	$6	9	0	+9	Yes	+$3	06-19 05:16
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?	2	$6	6	6	+0	No	+$4	09-03 20:51
Will CD Los Chankas win on 2026-05-17?	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$2	05-17 06:39
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	2	$5	7	0	+7	No	-$5	06-21 20:24
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-19?	2	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	05-20 00:17
mlb stl tor 2026 08 01	1	$4	4	0	+4	Toronto Blue Jays	+$0	08-01 21:27
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	1	$4	5	0	+5	No	-$4	06-22 19:24
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	09-30 17:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	4	$3	450	324	+126	No	-$1	06-17 22:34
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-07?	1	$3	12	0	+12	No	-$3	05-07 21:46
Will Argentina win on 2026-09-30?	1	$3	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	09-30 19:48
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	1	$3	8	0	+8	No	-$3	05-06 19:04
Will "Coyote vs. Acme" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?	1	$3	6	0	+6	No	-$3	08-27 07:45
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics	1	$3	3	0	+3	Athletics	+$0	08-26 03:21
mlb ari cle 2026 08 01	1	$3	3	0	+3	Arizona Diamondbacks	+$0	08-02 02:28
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox	1	$3	3	0	+3	Chicago White Sox	+$0	08-26 00:33
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees	1	$3	3	0	+3	New York Yankees	+$0	08-27 01:42
Will Argentina win on 2026-10-03?	3	$3	2	1	+1	Yes	+$0	10-03 04:12
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	2	$3	2	2	+0	Yes	+$1	05-20 21:00
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	2	$3	4	0	+4	Yes	+$1	06-22 06:14
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	2	$2	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	09-22 11:50
atp paul bergs 2026 10 13	2	$2	2	2	+0	Tommy Paul	+$0	10-14 13:31
US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina	2	$2	2	2	+0	Elena Rybakina	+$0	09-11 03:06
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	06-22 05:25
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu	2	$2	1	1	+0	Alexander Zverev	+$0	10-09 08:24
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$2	3	0	+3	No	-$2	10-04 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Up	+$2	09-22 14:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 18:40 UTC	1	$2	4	0	+4	Up	+$2	09-16 18:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 15:55:44	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe8f8c4…
10-25 16:06:54	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x80cc35…
10-25 02:59:27	Pelicans vs. Nuggets	Pelicans	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9f6486…
10-24 19:28:32	Will Cusco FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xaa5296…
10-24 19:25:41	Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x165d24…
10-21 21:56:41	Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xc514fb…
10-21 17:57:05	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x59dc3c…
10-21 17:10:17	Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf4e09b…
10-21 00:20:27	76ers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x1c13bd…
10-20 15:14:18	Almaty Open: Rei Sakamoto vs Karen Khachanov	Karen Khachanov	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb41d83…
10-20 00:41:14	Commanders vs. 49ers	49ers	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xca149a…
10-18 00:20:33	Will FBC Melgar vs. CD Garcilaso end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x289422…
10-17 16:54:36	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x0774ff…
10-17 10:57:05	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xe27d0a…
10-17 10:53:09	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x5dd3cc…
10-16 21:55:21	Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-10-16?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x8469c3…
10-15 08:36:40	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x0450cb…
10-15 08:36:26	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0xd5b8b0…
10-14 22:49:46	Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-10-07?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x52ba3e…
10-14 19:42:40	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xdac8af…
10-14 19:21:51	Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xfde034…
10-14 13:33:12	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xfd7b1c…
10-14 13:31:56	atp paul bergs 2026 10 13	Tommy Paul	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0x018803…
10-14 12:26:26	atp paul bergs 2026 10 13	Tommy Paul	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xd06d97…
10-14 00:34:06	Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x631ff1…
10-13 20:48:36	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xff6eef…
10-13 11:11:59	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik	Alexander Zverev	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xeacbd6…
10-13 06:56:19	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik	Arthur Gea	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x157fae…
10-12 06:14:39	U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0xefe72b…
10-12 06:14:12	Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x5a07b4…
10-12 06:13:18	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x9a0158…
10-10 20:38:25	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xfdcaa8…
10-10 18:37:19	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xab8ce9…
10-10 18:05:51	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x564604…
10-10 14:42:55	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xded9c4…
10-10 12:25:12	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Vallejo	Tommy Paul	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xaa0760…
10-09 23:46:49	Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x7a45b6…
10-09 18:53:11	Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-10-09?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x30db60…
10-09 08:24:04	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu	Alexander Zverev	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa24181…
10-08 11:00:45	Set 1 Winner: Luca Van Assche vs Yunchaokete Bu	Luca Van Assche	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xb847b7…
10-08 10:12:08	Set 1 Winner: Luca Van Assche vs Yunchaokete Bu	Luca Van Assche	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5c46b6…
10-08 09:34:18	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Nicolas Mejia	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x74e7fc…
10-08 05:49:56	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu	Alexander Zverev	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x79fbb8…
10-07 10:31:03	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yibing Wu vs Michael Zheng	Yibing Wu	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x4a179c…
10-07 04:08:20	Will Chile win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x6abe4f…
10-07 01:51:42	Will United States win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x8585d7…
10-06 19:18:06	Will Messi score 1+ goals vs. Benin?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x676299…
10-06 15:43:32	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x22291e…
10-06 09:56:09	Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x32eae6…
10-04 23:45:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x415042…
10-04 12:14:34	Will Germany win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf995d8…
10-04 11:34:31	atp zverev djokovi 2026 10 04	Alexander Zverev	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x231d49…
10-04 03:34:10	Will United States win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x174423…
10-04 01:35:23	wta bartunk sabalen 2026 10 03	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x25f0b8…
10-04 01:27:11	Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x281a6d…
10-03 18:18:54	Will Canada win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x13aabe…
10-03 16:18:51	Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xcf2ced…
10-03 16:14:00	Will England win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x69d447…
10-03 04:12:48	Will Argentina win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x7c3769…
10-03 00:56:15	Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x97bf36…
10-03 00:55:57	Will Argentina win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x4896a3…
10-02 21:26:14	China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva	Elena Rybakina	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xacfd26…
10-02 21:04:00	Will Argentina win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xedcaf5…
10-02 21:03:33	Will Brazil win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd15dd3…
10-02 11:24:09	China Open: Yunchaokete Bu vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xcc55ad…
10-02 11:18:21	China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva	Elena Rybakina	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x68ebe1…
10-02 11:16:48	China Open: Renata Zarazua vs Aryna Sabalenka	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x41df88…
10-02 03:19:03	Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3cbf71…
10-02 01:38:35	atp zverev shang 2026 10 01	Alexander Zverev	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xe5e918…
10-02 01:34:23	Will Haiti win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe8c85d…
10-01 18:50:21	Will Denmark win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7d6c1f…
10-01 06:48:11	atp buse halys 2026 09 29	Quentin Halys	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x06faaf…
10-01 06:37:36	atp buse halys 2026 09 29	Quentin Halys	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9b7acf…
10-01 01:59:30	atp zverev norrie 2026 09 29	Alexander Zverev	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x34856e…
10-01 01:13:53	Will Germany win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x2a3b43…
10-01 01:10:38	atp nishiko tiafoe 2026 09 29	Frances Tiafoe	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x3f3943…
09-30 19:48:44	Will Argentina win on 2026-09-30?	Yes	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xed4d8c…
09-30 17:29:17	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x31e036…
09-30 17:20:29	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-30?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xd2d7c4…
09-30 17:17:56	Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-09-30?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x497001…
09-29 21:13:14	Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xbb437c…
09-29 21:12:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x049d8b…
09-29 21:02:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x53acab…
09-29 14:36:30	Will Egypt win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x18f750…
09-29 12:18:11	atp medvede rublev 2026 09 29	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xc97ed9…
09-29 00:15:39	Eagles vs. Bears	Eagles	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xba9010…
09-28 15:35:48	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x2d10d0…
09-28 15:15:18	Will France win on 2026-09-28?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5303c2…
09-28 09:46:18	Will Japan win on 2026-09-28?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xc1c480…
09-28 01:19:57	Rams vs. Broncos	Rams	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x8a87e7…
09-26 22:21:42	Will Mexico win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xf273c7…
09-26 22:20:36	Will Germany win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x35c775…
09-26 21:16:06	atp doubles ruudzve bublnak 2026 09 26	Ruud/Zverev	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xff40be…
09-26 20:50:59	Will United States win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x8048fd…
09-26 18:29:09	atp alcaraz fritz 2026 09 26	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x86ee13…
09-26 07:01:51	atp zverev minaur 2026 09 26	Alexander Zverev	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xdc4132…
09-25 22:00:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x066db7…
09-25 21:57:30	Will Europe win the 2026 Laver Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x08a8ba…
09-25 21:01:20	atp doubles alcamen bublfri 2026 09 25	Alcaraz/Mensik	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x4acc9a…
09-25 10:50:59	Will Brazil win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x83be8e…