Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$296

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

77.5%

Resolved

689

Trades

3,702

lifetime

Volume

$19.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$58

10 positions

First seen

2026-06-05

last 08-22 10:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

57% 64% -$304

Sports

37% 63% +$9

Politics

5% 39% -$1

Tech

1% 50% +$1

Crypto

0% 75% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+13	$12	100¢	$13	+$1	06-12 22:44
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+13	$11	99¢	$13	+$2	06-12 22:43
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+13	$13	98¢	$13	$0	06-12 07:45
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+13	$5	68¢	$9	+$4	06-12 07:45
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+13	$11	35¢	$5	-$7	06-12 22:44
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	+2	$1	96¢	$2	+$0	07-15 18:33
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	+2	$1	88¢	$1	+$0	07-15 18:33
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	+2	$1	86¢	$1	+$0	07-15 18:33
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+2	$1	68¢	$1	$0	07-15 18:33
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	+2	$1	63¢	$1	$0	07-15 18:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	103	$1.2K	1,146	61	+1,085	No	+$15	07-15 19:16
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	88	$988	1,020	0	+1,020	No	+$32	06-12 21:48
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	86	$887	1,020	0	+1,020	No	+$133	06-12 21:48
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	86	$862	1,020	0	+1,020	No	+$158	06-12 21:48
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?	75	$855	838	37	+801	No	+$17	07-16 00:40
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	55	$605	610	0	+610	No	+$5	06-12 14:00
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	60	$602	620	10	+610	No	+$24	06-12 14:00
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	21	$561	530	50	+480	No	+$14	07-17 16:48
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	58	$413	615	5	+610	No	+$205	06-12 14:00
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	15	$383	384	0	+384	No	+$1	07-17 16:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	35	$363	386	97	+289	No	+$56	07-16 16:11
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	86	$316	1,020	0	+1,020	Yes	-$316	06-12 21:48
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	20	$297	274	35	+239	No	+$9	07-17 17:46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	17	$297	268	30	+238	No	+$1	07-16 16:11
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	12	$287	288	0	+288	No	+$1	07-17 16:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	15	$287	264	25	+239	No	+$1	07-17 17:46
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	70	$257	290	75	+214	No	+$57	06-08 13:22
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	13	$247	243	5	+238	No	+$1	07-16 16:11
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	58	$241	624	13	+610	Yes	-$231	06-12 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 2?	138	$234	534	516	+18	Yes	-$207	07-02 07:32
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	12	$234	239	0	+239	No	+$5	07-17 17:46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	24	$219	309	70	+239	Yes	-$139	07-17 17:46
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	31	$218	201	20	+181	No	+$2	06-12 16:15
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	36	$179	95	85	+10	No	$0	06-12 16:09
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	31	$152	405	165	+240	Yes	-$61	07-16 16:11
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	24	$144	186	5	+181	No	+$45	06-12 16:15
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	24	$144	158	0	+158	No	+$15	06-12 22:11
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	7	$141	100	92	+8	No	+$11	08-22 10:50
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	20	$134	258	29	+229	No	+$126	07-17 17:46
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	25	$132	158	0	+158	No	+$27	06-12 22:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-22 10:53:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x70668c…
08-22 10:50:45	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xe89e97…
08-22 10:50:45	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x3069fd…
08-22 10:50:24	Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	42	91¢	$38	0x8d50d5…
07-18 09:03:37	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x862523…
07-18 09:03:33	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xce0459…
07-18 07:41:58	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xae6e32…
07-18 07:28:33	Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xa055ab…
07-18 07:28:33	Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x48f06d…
07-18 07:18:03	Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	No	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0xf35ecd…
07-18 07:18:03	Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?	No	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xb4a847…
07-18 06:10:07	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x4db2a8…
07-18 04:30:04	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x01e9af…
07-18 03:27:51	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	66	1¢	$1	0xb84bab…
07-18 03:26:21	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0x966fe5…
07-18 03:18:30	Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-07-17?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x9b3592…
07-18 03:11:51	Will FC Juárez vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xf14064…
07-18 03:11:51	Will Club Puebla win on 2026-07-17?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xcc454f…
07-18 03:09:00	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	66	1¢	$1	0x7fe572…
07-18 03:07:30	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0x94ecdf…
07-18 03:05:45	Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-07-17?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xfec775…
07-18 03:05:45	Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x93118f…
07-18 03:05:39	Los Angeles FC leading at halftime?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xfa51cc…
07-18 03:05:39	Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Draw at halftime?	No	BUY	4	63¢	$2	0x809671…
07-18 03:05:39	Los Angeles Galaxy leading at halftime?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3e5f2a…
07-18 02:18:10	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0xa5ec54…
07-18 02:17:28	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xb9fce5…
07-18 02:13:18	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x75a4cb…
07-18 02:12:49	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb05e23…
07-18 01:35:49	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	62	1¢	$1	0x4d0511…
07-18 01:34:18	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x49057b…
07-18 01:25:01	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x7150b4…
07-18 00:17:36	Will Londrina EC win on 2026-07-20?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x3cabfa…
07-18 00:13:45	Will Londrina EC win on 2026-07-20?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xeb6bb5…
07-18 00:13:45	Will Londrina EC vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0xb2ced8…
07-17 23:44:58	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0x36a25c…
07-17 23:43:28	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0x40cabc…
07-17 22:36:01	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 125m and 130m?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xfe6d03…
07-17 22:36:01	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 115m and 120m?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xa587ce…
07-17 22:36:01	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 130m and 135m?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x1c07e9…
07-17 22:24:25	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	32	2¢	$0	0xb6224a…
07-17 21:28:46	Will CD Garcilaso win on 2026-07-17?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xe783bb…
07-17 21:28:46	Will CS Cristal win on 2026-07-17?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x55debe…
07-17 21:28:46	Will CS Cristal vs. CD Garcilaso end in a draw?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x1cebcc…
07-17 20:47:33	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf37bab…
07-17 20:47:33	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd42744…
07-17 19:08:18	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0xdc3a42…
07-17 19:06:48	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0xfeb683…
07-17 17:46:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xd82060…
07-17 17:46:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x7aef1a…
07-17 17:46:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x612332…
07-17 17:46:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x40189e…
07-17 17:46:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x232605…
07-17 16:50:19	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x3085f7…
07-17 16:48:49	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xc010e8…
07-17 16:48:49	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x8f3ec5…
07-17 16:48:48	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xf81d0e…
07-17 16:48:48	Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x4af6d5…
07-17 16:48:48	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x0be8a5…
07-17 16:48:04	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 130m and 135m?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xd4a9f7…
07-17 16:48:04	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 125m and 130m?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xbc4d36…
07-17 16:48:04	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 135m?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x7c1706…
07-17 16:48:04	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 115m?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x62f4b3…
07-17 16:48:04	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x22e491…
07-17 16:40:13	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x1fd7d7…
07-17 16:38:43	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xbfa461…
07-17 16:38:43	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x84595b…
07-17 16:38:43	Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x62fa56…
07-17 16:38:43	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x328f24…
07-17 16:35:22	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	SELL	51	3¢	$2	0xdc8380…
07-17 16:35:07	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0xa481cf…
07-17 16:34:57	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x1a557d…
07-17 16:34:45	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0x80ba49…
07-17 16:33:51	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x15342a…
07-17 16:33:15	Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xf684c3…
07-17 16:33:15	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x9b938a…
07-17 16:33:15	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x8b6f3a…
07-17 16:33:15	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0x2b8859…
07-17 16:22:48	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x8cbc79…
07-17 16:20:39	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x071e9f…
07-17 16:20:34	Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xc8b74d…
07-17 16:20:01	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xede636…
07-17 16:20:01	Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd6b388…
07-17 16:20:00	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xc8c165…
07-17 16:20:00	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x1b0341…
07-17 16:18:58	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xece8db…
07-17 16:18:57	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xfdd86a…
07-17 16:18:57	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0xecded4…
07-17 16:18:57	Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd50be1…
07-17 16:18:57	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x2c743c…
07-17 16:18:57	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x28972e…
07-17 16:13:21	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x97a30a…
07-17 16:13:01	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x5a2199…
07-17 16:13:00	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xe04ae2…
07-17 16:13:00	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xc06c1e…
07-17 16:13:00	Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x81a52d…
07-17 16:10:03	Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x21564f…
07-17 16:09:55	Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xccb6f9…
07-17 16:09:55	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x830485…
07-17 16:09:55	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6544b3…