Bite-Sized-Conspiracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

21.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$15.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$159

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 06-23 03:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 88% +$5

Politics

30% 20% -$46

Other

24% 98% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-23).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the price of ethereum be less than 2600 on february 4	2	$3.0K	1,502	1,502	+0	Yes	-$2	02-04 09:21
will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on february 4	2	$2.6K	1,303	1,303	+0	No	-$1	02-04 09:19
Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	2	$2.4K	1,201	1,201	+0	No	-$1	02-04 09:16
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$2.0K	1,012	1,012	+0	No	-$1	02-04 09:17
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	2	$2.0K	1,001	1,001	+0	No	-$1	02-04 09:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 09:15 UTC	3	$771	773	0	+773	Down	+$2	02-04 09:29
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	3	$635	339	310	+29	No	+$0	03-18 03:06
will solana reach 170 february 2 8	1	$251	251	0	+251	No	+$1	02-02 15:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 09:00 UTC	1	$200	201	0	+201	Down	+$1	02-04 09:13
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$150	123	123	+0	No	-$42	03-02 05:10
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$103	53	53	+0	Yes	-$2	02-24 09:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 05:00 UTC	1	$80	83	0	+83	Down	+$3	03-02 05:04
will bitcoin reach 80k february 23 march 1	1	$66	66	0	+66	No	+$0	02-25 08:43
will ethereum reach 2600 february 23 march 1	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	02-25 08:43
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	06-23 03:52
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	05-22 13:50
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C or below on May 13?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	05-12 07:44
highest temperature in cape town on april 20 2026 21corhigher	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	04-20 09:17
highest temperature in guangzhou on april 20 2026 32c	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	04-20 09:16
trump out as president by march 31	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	03-18 03:06
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 13?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	05-12 07:44
highest temperature in cape town on april 21 2026 21c	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	04-21 09:44
will meituan have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	03-18 03:02
highest temperature in austin on april 17 2026 77forbelow	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-16 08:40
highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 68 69f	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-21 09:45
highest temperature in toronto on april 21 2026 7c	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-21 09:43
highest temperature in guangzhou on april 20 2026 31c	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-20 09:16
highest temperature in guangzhou on april 16 2026 34c	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-16 08:43
highest temperature in cape town on april 16 2026 18c	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-16 08:43
highest temperature in guangzhou on april 16 2026 33c	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	04-16 08:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-23 03:52:40	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x8041bb…
05-22 13:50:02	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x8af8e6…
05-12 07:51:26	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 12?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x7a05e7…
05-12 07:50:48	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 12?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x89daa5…
05-12 07:50:20	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C or below on May 12?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xb148b9…
05-12 07:48:35	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or below on May 13?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x3ace4b…
05-12 07:44:52	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 13?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x1fdf5d…
05-12 07:44:33	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C or below on May 13?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xd86b08…
04-21 09:46:08	highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 66 67f	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x5a2fab…
04-21 09:45:52	highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 68 69f	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x9bd1e8…
04-21 09:45:28	highest temperature in seattle on april 21 2026 70 71f	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd06910…
04-21 09:44:56	highest temperature in cape town on april 21 2026 21c	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa96ac7…
04-21 09:44:34	highest temperature in munich on april 21 2026 14corhigher	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x510e8a…
04-21 09:43:26	highest temperature in toronto on april 21 2026 7c	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x28af4d…
04-20 09:18:32	highest temperature in madrid on april 20 2026 25c	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xb017ab…
04-20 09:17:48	highest temperature in cape town on april 20 2026 20c	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x9eb695…
04-20 09:17:32	highest temperature in cape town on april 20 2026 21corhigher	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xde5626…
04-20 09:16:28	highest temperature in guangzhou on april 20 2026 31c	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x09bc3e…
04-20 09:16:14	highest temperature in guangzhou on april 20 2026 32c	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x58f96c…
04-16 08:45:22	highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 22c	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xae1525…
04-16 08:45:12	highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 21corbelow	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0xc67d66…
04-16 08:44:54	highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 13c	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x531bc3…
04-16 08:44:40	highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 12c	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb9f1cc…
04-16 08:44:26	highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 10c	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x5431f5…
04-16 08:43:58	highest temperature in cape town on april 16 2026 18c	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x8aba75…
04-16 08:43:32	highest temperature in guangzhou on april 16 2026 33c	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x633672…
04-16 08:43:16	highest temperature in guangzhou on april 16 2026 34c	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x57d485…
04-16 08:42:44	highest temperature in jakarta on april 16 2026 37c	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb1aec6…
04-16 08:42:26	highest temperature in jakarta on april 16 2026 38corhigher	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xfc74ff…
04-16 08:42:08	highest temperature in jakarta on april 17 2026 28c	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd3ac1a…
04-16 08:41:50	highest temperature in austin on april 16 2026 80 81f	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x1f0069…
04-16 08:41:32	highest temperature in austin on april 16 2026 79forbelow	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x888aa7…
04-16 08:41:10	highest temperature in austin on april 17 2026 78 79f	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x4b2c8c…
04-16 08:40:58	highest temperature in austin on april 17 2026 77forbelow	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xf26393…
04-03 03:20:15	bitcoin above 78k on april 6	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc1830f…
04-03 03:18:55	highest temperature in istanbul on april 4 2026 6corbelow	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8fbb7c…
04-03 03:17:53	highest temperature in madrid on april 4 2026 17corbelow	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7259e5…
04-03 03:16:29	solana above 30 on april 6	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x26e44d…
04-03 03:15:55	highest temperature in beijing on april 4 2026 14c	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa1a01c…
04-03 03:15:43	highest temperature in beijing on april 4 2026 13corbelow	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa8a1a0…
04-03 03:15:15	highest temperature in paris on april 4 2026 8c	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x31c79d…
04-03 03:14:57	highest temperature in paris on april 4 2026 7corbelow	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x9e6a63…
04-03 03:14:19	highest temperature in singapore on april 4 2026 24corbelow	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc333bb…
04-03 03:13:59	highest temperature in lucknow on april 4 2026 43corhigher	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3553ca…
04-03 03:13:33	highest temperature in wellington on april 4 2026 13c	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x19c68d…
04-03 03:13:09	highest temperature in ankara on april 4 2026 3c	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1a07e5…
04-03 03:12:55	highest temperature in ankara on april 4 2026 2corbelow	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc6978a…
04-03 03:12:31	highest temperature in nyc on april 4 2026 40 41f	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xcf6edb…
04-03 03:12:15	highest temperature in nyc on april 4 2026 39forbelow	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x45ae23…
04-03 03:11:45	highest temperature in chicago on april 4 2026 74 75f	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x03d666…
04-03 03:11:31	highest temperature in chicago on april 4 2026 76forhigher	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7958d5…
04-03 03:11:11	highest temperature in london on april 4 2026 9c	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x66486c…
04-03 03:10:59	highest temperature in london on april 4 2026 8c	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb01c4c…
04-03 03:10:39	highest temperature in toronto on april 4 2026 3c	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb3781b…
04-03 03:10:05	highest temperature in toronto on april 4 2026 2c	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7f5f40…
04-03 03:09:49	highest temperature in toronto on april 4 2026 1corbelow	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x875221…
04-03 03:09:23	highest temperature in seoul on april 4 2026 8c	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8779f4…
04-03 03:09:07	highest temperature in seoul on april 4 2026 7corbelow	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x8d6c0e…
04-03 03:08:43	solana above 130 on april 6	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe4c502…
04-03 03:08:25	solana above 30 on april 6	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x82cc52…
04-03 03:08:11	solana above 40 on april 6	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x400f60…
03-18 03:06:29	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x66dff6…
03-18 03:06:09	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xc0a488…
03-18 03:05:17	will solana reach 160 in march 2026	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x7fe66e…
03-18 03:05:01	will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x03f93c…
03-18 03:04:47	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xa0b1f1…
03-18 03:04:09	will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x994962…
03-18 03:03:41	will silver si hit high 200 by end of march	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf8cfb5…
03-18 03:03:17	will meituan have the 3 ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf92f12…
03-18 03:02:55	will tesla be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x0d0e59…
03-18 03:02:43	will meituan have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x1fe528…
03-18 03:02:25	will mistral have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x247d1e…
03-18 03:02:11	will baidu have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 986	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x2c14aa…
03-18 03:01:53	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x6f20b7…
03-02 05:10:13	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	123	44¢	$54	0xeb549e…
03-02 05:04:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0x09de47…
02-25 08:43:40	will bitcoin reach 80k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xb8a8ef…
02-25 08:43:22	will ethereum reach 2600 february 23 march 1	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x725f48…
02-24 09:14:28	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	BUY	123	78¢	$96	0xf291a4…
02-24 09:13:44	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	53	94¢	$50	0x9e231f…
02-04 09:29:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	471	100¢	$471	0xf16b76…
02-04 09:29:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xda1743…
02-04 09:27:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xee5e55…
02-04 09:21:14	will the price of ethereum be less than 2600 on february 4	Yes	SELL	1,502	100¢	$1,498	0x643224…
02-04 09:20:54	will the price of ethereum be less than 2600 on february 4	Yes	BUY	1,502	100¢	$1,500	0xf1b3cb…
02-04 09:19:10	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on february 4	No	SELL	1,303	100¢	$1,299	0x4295d3…
02-04 09:19:02	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on february 4	No	BUY	1,303	100¢	$1,300	0x1eaa9e…
02-04 09:17:34	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	1,012	99¢	$1,000	0xb11044…
02-04 09:17:20	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,012	99¢	$1,001	0xe2eb6b…
02-04 09:16:48	Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	SELL	1,001	100¢	$999	0x67fcce…
02-04 09:16:30	Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	BUY	1,001	100¢	$1,000	0x3a1eb5…
02-04 09:16:02	Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	SELL	1,201	100¢	$1,199	0x0ba958…
02-04 09:15:52	Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	BUY	1,201	100¢	$1,200	0xb495b2…
02-04 09:13:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0x370c95…
02-02 15:00:54	will solana reach 170 february 2 8	No	BUY	251	100¢	$251	0x08f13c…
02-02 14:25:32	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x3d58fd…
02-02 04:01:32	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	310	98¢	$303	0x728882…
01-17 08:19:16	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	310	98¢	$303	0x882251…