Organic-Fedora — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.92K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved

5,615

Trades

13,727

lifetime

Volume

$95.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 09-07 14:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 178 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 62% -$4,922

Politics

2% 67% +$282

Other

1% 81% -$279

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 00:15 UTC	13	$1.1K	599	597	+2	Up	+$76	02-04 00:24
Trump kiss by May 31?	5	$1.0K	616	616	+0	Yes	+$188	05-20 16:21
will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	2	$875	500	500	+0	Yes	+$105	03-17 00:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	5	$735	497	481	+17	Up	+$219	04-28 00:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 01:00 UTC	3	$705	408	405	+4	Up	+$100	02-15 01:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 02:15 UTC	3	$443	599	0	+599	Down	-$443	02-04 02:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	26	$420	490	450	+39	Up	-$25	05-23 00:23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	10	$412	400	400	+0	Yes	+$92	03-03 19:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	14	$392	777	0	+777	Up	-$6	05-22 22:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	17	$392	500	300	+200	Down	-$220	05-07 00:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	15	$383	725	0	+725	Down	-$20	05-22 22:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	22	$370	451	416	+35	Down	+$2	05-23 00:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	24	$360	903	903	+0	Down	-$24	05-23 00:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	3	$339	400	0	+400	Down	-$339	05-23 11:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	12	$337	672	0	+672	Down	+$1	05-22 22:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 01:30 UTC	45	$326	540	0	+540	Down	-$326	02-15 01:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	12	$324	220	214	+6	Up	+$80	04-25 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	18	$321	966	722	+244	Down	-$47	05-23 00:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	23	$319	420	0	+420	Down	-$319	04-28 00:11
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	1	$306	400	0	+400	No	-$306	04-30 14:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	12	$257	247	246	+1	Down	+$3	05-23 00:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 00:00 UTC	11	$256	500	0	+500	Down	-$256	03-19 00:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	11	$246	477	0	+477	Down	-$6	05-22 21:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	10	$243	476	0	+476	Down	-$4	05-22 22:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-16 02:00 UTC	21	$243	461	260	+201	Down	-$184	02-16 02:11
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	3	$241	500	500	+0	No	+$19	03-18 13:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	2	$234	180	180	+0	Up	-$43	04-29 09:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 19:30 UTC	2	$233	155	151	+4	Up	+$36	04-24 19:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 21:10 UTC	8	$232	160	157	+3	Up	+$66	04-11 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	2	$231	450	450	+0	Down	+$31	05-22 00:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-07 14:04:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0x57c300…
09-07 11:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	77¢	$14	0x73de5e…
09-07 09:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x381e10…
09-07 09:08:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x8a5268…
09-07 09:08:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0x69bd01…
09-07 09:08:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	9	93¢	$9	0x97198f…
09-07 08:33:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xa96d71…
09-07 01:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xddcbf9…
09-06 20:48:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xf3e560…
09-06 20:38:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xacec84…
09-06 20:38:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x11442c…
09-06 13:58:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x7ecbcb…
09-06 11:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x81b540…
09-06 09:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x18563f…
09-06 08:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x683c79…
09-06 08:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	16	91¢	$14	0xeb8915…
09-06 08:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x5f831a…
09-05 13:08:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	40¢	$4	0xdac29b…
09-05 12:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xfea38b…
09-05 12:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xed3030…
09-05 11:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x2d9c60…
09-05 11:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x338fd4…
09-05 09:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x79bbd6…
09-05 01:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xcca2b5…
09-05 00:28:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x013610…
09-04 22:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0xf0ccc8…
09-04 13:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xc2d2f9…
09-04 12:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xbee501…
09-04 12:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x857fdb…
09-04 12:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0x0d92bc…
09-04 11:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x534c36…
09-04 11:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x0e23d0…
09-04 10:23:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x4df5b8…
09-04 01:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x91e77a…
09-04 00:53:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	17¢	$2	0xf2e64a…
09-04 00:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x76e69a…
09-04 00:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xfc9160…
09-03 23:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x32a536…
09-03 21:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x03a185…
09-03 19:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xab7ba2…
09-03 09:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x19a05c…
09-03 09:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x6babe5…
09-03 09:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xdd5108…
09-03 08:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbb823f…
09-03 08:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x12a2dc…
09-03 08:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xca8b5d…
09-03 08:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x68bf4e…
09-03 08:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x3ec5bd…
09-03 08:18:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x5d589d…
09-03 08:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x4802ba…
09-02 23:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xef844b…
09-02 21:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x525680…
09-02 18:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x1d6736…
09-02 14:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xa73041…
09-01 16:28:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x7e969e…
09-01 14:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xf3caaa…
08-31 20:38:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x73cd0e…
08-30 21:43:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xd307e2…
08-30 20:08:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 20:05 UTC	Down	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x411a80…
08-30 19:58:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 19:55 UTC	Up	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0x5d00db…
08-30 00:58:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 00:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	95¢	$3	0xfa3747…
08-29 21:33:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	93¢	$3	0x751cba…
08-29 21:33:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x15bdb0…
08-29 14:13:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 14:10 UTC	Down	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0xc51e6d…
08-29 09:23:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	18	87¢	$16	0x487c26…
08-29 08:54:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 08:50 UTC	Up	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x822d40…
08-28 22:53:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x51da40…
08-28 22:43:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 22:40 UTC	Up	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xabaf8a…
08-28 22:03:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x948200…
08-28 21:28:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 21:25 UTC	Up	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x4f67ec…
08-28 21:15:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-28 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x55bd24…
08-28 19:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xbd6b58…
08-28 00:14:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-28 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xeb7d0b…
08-27 20:19:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x827fcb…
08-27 19:28:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x23f862…
08-26 21:04:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0xb46fbb…
08-26 20:53:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x5b0e11…
08-26 10:13:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x636292…
08-26 08:43:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xcf01ff…
08-19 17:33:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0xef1520…
08-18 22:13:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 22:10 UTC	Up	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x19961d…
08-18 21:49:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x5173da…
08-18 21:43:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	18	79¢	$14	0x289e75…
08-18 19:08:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 19:05 UTC	Down	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x1544d9…
08-18 18:04:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	18	86¢	$15	0xc9de05…
08-18 13:28:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x6381f2…
08-18 13:13:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0xdd8a72…
08-18 09:13:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	18	86¢	$15	0x8a3bc7…
08-18 01:28:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 01:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf470df…
08-17 21:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x1c491b…
08-17 21:38:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 21:35 UTC	Down	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x01d272…
08-17 11:19:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xe6362c…
08-17 00:43:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xdc895d…
08-16 18:44:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xaa6491…
08-16 18:44:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xb91c6c…
08-16 14:18:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x99d063…
08-16 13:04:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	17	90¢	$16	0x270f7c…
08-16 13:04:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xe0b84f…
08-16 12:29:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 12:25 UTC	Down	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x75f9ff…
08-16 11:13:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x2e6b92…