Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

62.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$72

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-08-25

last 11-06 04:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

74% 55% -$1

Politics

25% 88% +$11

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	11-03 08:30
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	+1	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	11-03 16:59
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Up	+2	$1	66¢	$1	+$0	11-06 04:21
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	+1	$1	84¢	$1	+$0	11-06 04:04
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	+5	$1	18¢	$1	$0	11-04 09:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 04:21:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x7aaead…
11-06 04:04:52	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x55ccca…
11-05 13:21:49	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc70ad9…
11-05 02:48:28	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1ef644…
11-04 09:34:19	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc38d01…
11-04 01:11:18	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x98e85e…
11-03 16:59:57	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x2a9c99…
11-03 08:30:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x779b82…
11-03 00:24:31	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa54a29…
11-02 16:17:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb03f26…
11-02 08:16:45	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 2?	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xb9e8d5…
11-02 00:16:36	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x0734ad…
10-31 21:32:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x2e56f6…
10-22 16:46:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc3a8e3…
10-18 20:24:20	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc06e8b…
10-18 11:51:50	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfb6ec9…
10-17 23:55:24	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xec2fb1…
10-17 08:44:41	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x05c96f…
10-16 06:55:42	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe8bac3…
10-15 10:48:36	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x6890ca…
10-14 14:11:57	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3471a4…
10-14 05:58:52	spy up or down on october 14 2026	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xccaecf…
10-14 05:43:23	will mu reach 960 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x31b687…
10-11 08:30:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x70573e…
10-10 21:50:15	Will Bank of America (BAC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x1d864e…
10-09 09:23:36	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xbf164a…
10-08 23:26:14	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xe12a08…
10-08 10:08:03	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x075253…
10-06 12:47:22	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x10fb9d…
10-06 04:44:07	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7a7923…
10-05 16:57:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x31ca2c…
10-05 00:36:43	will coin dip to 180 by october 5 2026	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x69275f…
10-02 14:36:17	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x500e7d…
10-02 06:03:51	spy up or down on october 2 2026	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x7c44b5…
10-01 11:31:29	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb26453…
10-01 03:31:00	will tsla reach 360 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x07b71d…
09-30 13:53:48	will rklb dip to 68 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x7136d5…
09-30 04:55:42	spy up or down on september 30 2026	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x44d95a…
09-27 19:00:42	will the 5 year treasury yield hit 5pt07 in september	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x923e87…
09-26 07:41:41	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xc2f003…
09-25 08:53:54	spy up or down on september 25 2026	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x4c400b…
09-24 23:13:21	Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xaef05d…
09-24 03:09:47	Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xf881af…
09-23 18:49:41	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x063bfa…
09-23 10:49:28	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x6a459c…
09-23 02:31:29	will xauusd dip to 4300 by september 21 2026 from september 22	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x926a8e…
09-19 23:51:42	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 25 20260917	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xfd4184…
09-19 06:28:31	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x1ef9d0…
09-18 11:48:30	Will Trump say "Failing Country" or "Failing Nation" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8d2fc3…
09-17 19:06:27	saudi arabia military action against yemen on september 23 20260916	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x59abce…
09-17 05:25:45	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x7807d0…
09-17 05:21:28	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x3817aa…
09-16 21:20:34	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xfefc1a…
09-16 13:14:55	will warsh say anchor during september press conference 20260909	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x117fae…
09-16 05:14:36	will warsh say labor force during september press conference 20260909	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x4842d5…
09-10 08:59:16	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xc6e255…
09-10 00:47:57	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa64ef4…
09-08 14:10:52	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe8254c…
09-08 05:21:49	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 7 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x56db5b…
09-07 14:27:31	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x65be04…
08-29 16:17:16	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xbd0b6c…
08-29 08:13:58	will nvda dip to 216 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1a2d13…
08-28 21:25:55	next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x37b3c5…
08-28 12:56:52	will trump say moon base during remarks at nasa	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x53aadd…
08-28 04:55:19	Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x045a7a…
08-27 20:54:01	will trump say china or chinese during remarks at nasa	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x3b226a…
08-27 12:52:09	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xefab30…
08-27 04:50:37	spy closes above 770 on august 27 2026	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x702634…
08-26 18:36:30	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x7d61be…
08-26 10:33:52	xagusd up or down on august 26 2026	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb1da0b…
08-25 19:44:10	Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7551a5…
08-25 05:07:09	will trump say flag during remarks at nasa	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x25696e…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	2	$2	4	+4	No	$0	09-17 05:25
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	10-06 04:44
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-19 06:28
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	10-18 20:24
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-10 08:59
will xauusd dip to 4300 by september 21 2026 from september 22	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-23 02:31
Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	09-24 03:09
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	10-31 21:32
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-17 08:44
spx up or down on october 16 2026	1	$1	2	+2	Down	+$2	10-16 06:55
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	1	$1	2	+2	Down	+$1	11-05 02:48
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	10-17 23:55
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	10-08 23:26
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	11-03 00:24
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	09-26 07:41
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	09-23 10:49
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of October 5 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-05 16:57
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	11-02 00:16
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	09-08 14:10
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina?	1	$1	3	+3	No	+$2	09-16 21:20
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-10 00:47
will tsla reach 360 by september 28 2026	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	-$1	10-01 03:31
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 5 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	+$3	10-06 12:47
Trump renames AI by September 30?	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	+$3	09-24 23:13
will warsh say labor force during september press conference 20260909	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	09-16 05:14
saudi arabia military action against yemen on september 23 20260916	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	09-17 19:06
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	10-02 14:36
will the 5 year treasury yield hit 5pt07 in september	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-27 19:00
Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	3	+3	No	-$1	10-18 11:51
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	09-23 18:49