Keen-Constraint — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.1%

Resolved

Trades

750

lifetime

Volume

$942

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-21

last 05-20 14:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 44% $-4

Other

10% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 180 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 40 64	5	$21	36	35	+1	open	—	04-06 02:21
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	3	$17	23	22	+1	open	—	04-10 04:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	5	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	05-20 09:28
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 180 199	5	$15	399	379	+19	open	—	04-09 07:07
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 240 259	2	$12	33	32	+1	open	—	04-12 12:06
btc updown 5m 1774182900	4	$11	45	45	+0	open	—	03-22 12:39
btc updown 5m 1775479500	4	$9	6	6	+0	open	—	04-06 12:48
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	2	$9	36	36	+0	open	—	04-11 20:21
btc updown 5m 1774180200	4	$9	11	11	+0	open	—	03-22 11:54
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 300 319	4	$8	48	45	+2	open	—	04-13 10:36
btc updown 5m 1775479800	4	$7	8	7	+0	open	—	04-06 12:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	3	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	05-20 09:50
btc updown 5m 1774182000	4	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	03-22 12:25
btc updown 5m 1775242800	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	04-03 19:03
btc updown 5m 1775473500	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	04-06 11:09
btc updown 5m 1775244000	2	$5	4	3	+0	open	—	04-03 19:25
btc updown 5m 1775896500	2	$5	5	4	+0	open	—	04-11 08:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	4	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	05-06 23:50
btc updown 5m 1774185300	6	$5	9	8	+0	open	—	03-22 13:18
btc updown 5m 1775884500	4	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-11 05:20
btc updown 5m 1775480700	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-06 13:08
btc updown 5m 1774181400	4	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	03-22 12:15
btc updown 5m 1775244900	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-03 19:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	4	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	05-07 00:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	05-20 14:00
btc updown 5m 1775898000	4	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-11 09:05
btc updown 5m 1775487900	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	04-06 15:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-07 06:05
btc updown 5m 1774118100	4	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	03-21 18:38
btc updown 5m 1775498700	4	$5	4	3	+0	open	—	04-06 18:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 14:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x246990…
05-20 14:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x011ca4…
05-20 14:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf9e57f…
05-20 14:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0xbc25af…
05-20 14:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x2063d6…
05-20 14:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xd468d3…
05-20 14:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x3bbcae…
05-20 13:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x719cc1…
05-20 13:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0xfb981d…
05-20 13:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa68933…
05-20 13:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd081d8…
05-20 13:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x4f5375…
05-20 13:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x637db0…
05-20 13:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3b52a6…
05-20 10:17:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	23¢	$1	0x1072e7…
05-20 10:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x28b631…
05-20 10:11:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xb970a9…
05-20 10:11:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x42aa7e…
05-20 10:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8f95db…
05-20 10:09:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$1	0x4d4d7e…
05-20 10:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x7301b2…
05-20 10:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xcfef65…
05-20 09:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfc4c71…
05-20 09:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0x8ddef7…
05-20 09:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb4217b…
05-20 09:54:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xf8ba43…
05-20 09:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x4f10ad…
05-20 09:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0x874ac8…
05-20 09:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe93e8b…
05-20 09:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x0eb154…
05-20 09:46:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xc888cf…
05-20 09:45:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb59fcd…
05-20 09:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x992c57…
05-20 09:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x40ea9a…
05-20 09:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x053630…
05-20 09:37:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xb8309a…
05-20 09:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x22b880…
05-20 09:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xc02112…
05-20 09:35:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x3eb34f…
05-20 09:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x0f4f66…
05-20 09:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x71e213…
05-20 09:28:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xee697a…
05-20 09:27:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x83807c…
05-20 09:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x87150f…
05-20 09:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0xc738a5…
05-20 09:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd712ca…
05-10 20:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x5c91a8…
05-10 20:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x18ef27…
05-10 20:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0df690…
05-10 20:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0xa46cca…
05-10 20:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xdfbc61…
05-10 20:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x558442…
05-07 17:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x309c74…
05-07 17:10:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x41615c…
05-07 17:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x03c85f…
05-07 17:06:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xade6a2…
05-07 15:27:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x2c428d…
05-07 14:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x4bd5b7…
05-07 14:35:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x6195d9…
05-07 14:32:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	26¢	$0	0xeab4b5…
05-07 14:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe091ce…
05-07 14:27:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x4c6e46…
05-07 14:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xa77d80…
05-07 14:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc10669…
05-07 14:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x5276c1…
05-07 06:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xef3586…
05-07 06:02:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x6ee825…
05-07 06:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x942e68…
05-07 06:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x7096d5…
05-07 05:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x1390af…
05-07 00:37:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xae7f30…
05-07 00:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x6eafd4…
05-07 00:36:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x2bdfc8…
05-07 00:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x615ccd…
05-07 00:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0da6f7…
05-06 23:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x76ea0a…
05-06 23:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x1f3549…
05-06 23:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe06fc6…
05-06 23:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0x9c14b4…
05-06 23:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x872358…
05-06 23:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0x55a3cb…
05-06 23:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xd11638…
05-06 23:35:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xbf9aef…
05-06 23:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf55052…
05-06 23:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb730e4…
05-06 12:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xad2c7b…
05-06 12:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x295c02…
05-06 12:33:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x44eb60…
05-06 12:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x68327c…
05-06 12:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x5ecb64…
05-06 11:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x0744ec…
05-06 09:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe31589…
05-06 08:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xbdbe5d…
05-06 08:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x938234…
05-06 08:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xd5465d…
04-13 10:36:09	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 300 319	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0x7018cb…
04-12 19:51:23	btc updown 5m 1776023400	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa2e589…
04-12 19:50:53	btc updown 5m 1776023400	Up	SELL	3	54¢	$1	0xe117e0…
04-12 19:50:41	btc updown 5m 1776023400	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x5d8357…
04-12 19:49:45	btc updown 5m 1776023100	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x5a7885…