Cheery-Accounting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$93

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

70.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$750

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$37

1 position

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-19 20:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Politics

55% 89% +$20

Other

43% 42% -$103

Crypto

1% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes		+45	$39	82¢	$37	-$2	10-19 20:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	3	$186	112	112	+0	No	+$22	04-12 17:52
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$55	180	0	+180	Yes	-$55	04-19 17:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	1	$43	70	0	+70	No	-$43	05-02 09:46
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	4	$41	75	0	+75	No	+$34	04-13 18:05
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	3	$39	45	0	+45	open	—	10-19 20:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	1	$36	50	0	+50	No	+$14	04-19 17:07
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	3	$35	21	21	+0	No	+$5	02-20 17:12
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$31	35	0	+35	Yes	-$31	04-22 16:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$29	20	20	+0	No	+$5	05-04 13:32
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	1	$27	28	0	+28	No	+$1	04-08 20:09
Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	1	$27	30	0	+30	open	—	10-19 18:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$24	30	0	+30	No	+$6	05-10 11:30
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	1	$15	16	0	+16	No	+$1	01-15 19:47
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	1	$15	26	0	+26	No	-$15	04-08 20:02
israel strikes iran by january 15 2026	2	$14	10	10	+0	No	+$6	01-15 20:07
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	1	$14	15	0	+15	No	+$1	05-02 09:59
will solana reach 150 january 12 18	1	$10	40	0	+40	No	-$10	01-15 20:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	1	$10	30	0	+30	Yes	-$10	04-13 18:32
friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany by march 31	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	03-14 13:45
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$1	03-11 20:37
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	1	$7	10	0	+10	No	+$3	02-20 22:04
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 24?	1	$6	6	0	+6	Down	+$0	04-24 16:54
bun pau bay 2026 04 11 bay	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$0	04-11 19:18
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03?	1	$5	10	0	+10	No	-$5	05-02 09:48
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02?	1	$5	13	0	+13	No	-$5	05-02 09:50
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02?	1	$5	9	0	+9	No	-$5	05-02 09:51
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$2	05-02 09:55
bun b04 bay 2026 03 14 bay	1	$5	8	0	+8	No	-$5	03-14 13:37
Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by October 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	10-19 19:10
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	1	$5	8	0	+8	Yes	+$3	03-14 13:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 20:16:14	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xa429cf…
10-19 19:34:57	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0xf3aef6…
10-19 19:10:54	Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xeaad25…
10-19 18:48:47	Will Boris Pistorius be the next Chancellor of Germany?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xadf0ba…
10-19 18:42:26	Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x13654b…
10-19 18:40:21	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0xa2c7d1…
05-10 11:30:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x17e210…
05-04 13:32:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xf0e34c…
05-02 09:59:08	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x604d90…
05-02 09:55:10	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xf56f23…
05-02 09:51:24	Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xfd68d5…
05-02 09:50:12	Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xa60b6f…
05-02 09:48:54	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf08bea…
05-02 09:46:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	70	61¢	$43	0x392af8…
04-25 13:40:30	Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x107a8f…
04-25 13:39:30	Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xb0ac43…
04-24 16:54:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 24?	Down	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xbf58a8…
04-24 16:52:08	bun lei uni 2026 04 24 uni	Yes	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x869f24…
04-22 16:02:02	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	35	89¢	$31	0x9ae7df…
04-19 17:07:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x90013b…
04-19 17:02:32	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xf4db50…
04-18 09:11:18	bun wer hsv 2026 04 18 hsv	Yes	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0xd147d2…
04-18 09:00:06	bun uni wol 2026 04 18 uni	Yes	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x17f148…
04-13 18:32:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x487e33…
04-13 18:09:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	150	34¢	$51	0xae2cf5…
04-13 18:05:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	25	45¢	$11	0xe6e106…
04-13 16:50:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	11	60¢	$6	0x202a60…
04-12 21:18:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x2e9f5d…
04-12 19:27:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	36	60¢	$21	0x05af75…
04-12 17:52:33	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	112	93¢	$104	0xb5e293…
04-11 19:43:35	bun koe wer 2026 04 12 koe	Yes	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0xf72a33…
04-11 19:43:11	bun koe wer 2026 04 12 koe	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x46336c…
04-11 19:18:49	bun pau bay 2026 04 11 bay	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x50513b…
04-11 17:24:47	bun pau bay 2026 04 11 bay	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0x972781…
04-08 20:09:13	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0xb2d29d…
04-08 20:02:47	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	Yes	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0xfa4d66…
04-08 19:54:13	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	103	73¢	$75	0x3a9cc0…
04-08 19:36:11	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0x7d8569…
04-08 19:23:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xac2b0d…
04-08 19:18:21	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 10 578	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xd9740b…
03-14 13:45:45	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany by march 31	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4a5e69…
03-14 13:43:15	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x6f996a…
03-14 13:37:39	bun b04 bay 2026 03 14 bay	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x19618e…
03-11 20:37:11	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x1b9e09…
02-20 22:04:40	will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	No	BUY	10	75¢	$7	0x160b90…
02-20 17:12:02	trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xa2a38a…
02-20 17:10:56	bun bay ein 2026 02 21 ein	Yes	BUY	42	6¢	$2	0xd3091e…
02-20 16:52:20	trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	No	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x1b6716…
02-01 19:18:46	will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0x7bfb36…
01-16 07:28:52	trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	No	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0xc3429f…
01-15 20:12:40	will solana reach 150 january 12 18	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x836fbe…
01-15 20:07:18	israel strikes iran by january 15 2026	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa7f590…
01-15 19:47:44	us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	No	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x6113b1…
01-14 18:37:50	israel strikes iran by january 15 2026	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x27d218…