Turbulent-Celebrity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$577

Unrealized P&L

+$676

Hit rate

46.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,337

lifetime

Volume

$395.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$296

Open exposure

$1.95K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-22 16:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

56% 0% $-1,377

Other

42% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$800

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 360 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes		+7,086	$1,272	28¢	$1.9K	+$676	07-13 11:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	372	$56.3K	49,872	49,872	+0	open	—	05-26 13:57
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	18	$32.6K	17,151	17,151	+0	open	—	05-28 20:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	116	$28.5K	120,933	120,933	+0	open	—	04-26 07:27
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	40	$27.1K	177,197	177,197	+0	open	—	03-30 21:25
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	106	$25.0K	21,853	21,854	-1	open	—	02-28 08:08
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	9	$23.4K	19,488	19,488	+0	open	—	05-25 23:58
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	54	$19.0K	90,261	17,000	+73,261	open	—	06-12 20:13
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$16.5K	21,167	21,205	-38	open	—	06-07 22:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	10	$14.6K	48,916	3,089	+45,828	open	—	05-31 21:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	10	$12.1K	11,663	11,663	+0	open	—	04-08 02:47
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	26	$10.4K	50,336	0	+50,336	open	—	07-03 18:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$10.0K	7,572	7,572	+0	open	—	06-01 14:57
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	14	$9.7K	26,049	14,466	+11,583	open	—	07-21 15:46
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	154	$7.7K	36,695	36,695	+0	open	—	02-01 09:01
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	5	$7.4K	4,751	4,751	+0	open	—	03-07 00:41
dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19	7	$6.9K	4,600	4,600	+0	open	—	07-19 18:45
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	38	$6.4K	19,295	0	+19,295	open	—	07-21 22:11
dota2 vg ty 2026 07 19 game1	2	$6.1K	3,185	3,185	+0	open	—	07-19 11:00
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	16	$5.6K	8,620	4,834	+3,786	open	—	06-17 17:12
dota2 ngx bb4 2026 07 16	2	$4.9K	2,899	2,899	+0	open	—	07-17 16:23
israel closes its airspace by july 31	32	$4.8K	39,946	0	+39,946	open	—	07-08 17:15
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	7	$3.5K	22,571	3,000	+19,571	open	—	05-25 18:41
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	2	$3.4K	11,139	11,139	+0	open	—	07-20 07:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	10	$3.3K	75,807	75,807	+0	open	—	05-21 17:03
dota2 ty pari 2026 07 18	2	$3.0K	2,083	2,083	+0	open	—	07-18 17:26
dota2 ty pari 2026 07 18 game2	3	$2.8K	1,862	1,862	+0	open	—	07-18 16:18
bitcoin above 78k on february 2	35	$2.8K	2,229	2,229	+0	open	—	02-02 16:37
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	15	$2.8K	12,602	0	+12,602	open	—	05-06 06:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	5	$2.1K	7,604	7,604	+0	open	—	06-11 13:19
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	4	$2.1K	7,121	0	+7,121	open	—	04-10 05:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 16:05:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	2,799	38¢	$1,063	0x17370a…
07-21 22:11:15	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	1,000	36¢	$360	0x9b20dc…
07-21 21:47:06	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	500	36¢	$180	0x86e1a4…
07-21 21:46:13	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x21ad28…
07-21 21:46:12	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x39864a…
07-21 21:45:58	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x414041…
07-21 21:45:57	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	246	36¢	$89	0xbf9753…
07-21 21:45:57	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	2,500	36¢	$900	0x3ae13e…
07-21 21:45:54	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xee5f88…
07-21 21:45:54	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x206b95…
07-21 21:45:52	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xdd57a6…
07-21 21:45:52	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xd2d6f2…
07-21 21:45:52	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x882a44…
07-21 21:45:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	3,906	36¢	$1,406	0xa784c5…
07-21 21:45:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	2,496	36¢	$899	0x71a9ea…
07-21 21:45:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x6f214a…
07-21 21:45:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1622ba…
07-21 21:45:49	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x6c9c49…
07-21 21:45:49	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x5d778c…
07-21 21:45:49	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	52	36¢	$19	0x175e6c…
07-21 21:45:48	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	9	36¢	$3	0xd733c4…
07-21 21:45:46	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	3,943	36¢	$1,420	0x90dc9a…
07-21 19:58:42	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x5c0a41…
07-21 15:46:49	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	15	26¢	$4	0x421a98…
07-20 07:54:34	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	500	34¢	$170	0xe3cdcd…
07-20 07:54:15	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	1,641	34¢	$558	0xbdee99…
07-20 07:48:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	11,139	18¢	$2,035	0x9ec695…
07-20 07:00:12	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0xe75d82…
07-20 05:45:33	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0x353a7d…
07-20 05:18:40	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	23	12¢	$3	0x3a9fc9…
07-20 05:09:04	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x2adda5…
07-20 04:01:07	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0x801a0f…
07-20 03:53:06	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x956302…
07-20 03:53:06	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x7771f5…
07-20 03:53:06	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	35	12¢	$4	0x3d1c88…
07-20 03:53:06	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	35	12¢	$4	0x1d9098…
07-20 03:53:04	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0xf1953d…
07-20 03:46:28	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x561bbc…
07-20 02:51:58	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x7160fb…
07-19 23:14:00	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	48	12¢	$6	0x26367d…
07-19 22:59:19	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	462	12¢	$55	0x780ca4…
07-19 19:04:27	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	1,076	42¢	$452	0x7df942…
07-19 18:45:10	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19	PARIVISION	SELL	4,600	100¢	$4,595	0xc43eb5…
07-19 14:49:24	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19	PARIVISION	BUY	855	44¢	$376	0x158c94…
07-19 14:48:58	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19	PARIVISION	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x0b92e4…
07-19 14:48:12	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19	PARIVISION	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xa24807…
07-19 14:48:10	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19	PARIVISION	BUY	106	44¢	$47	0x269385…
07-19 14:45:49	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19	PARIVISION	BUY	2,000	44¢	$880	0x7335a0…
07-19 14:44:01	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19 game1	PARIVISION	BUY	330	20¢	$66	0x4d3ba8…
07-19 14:44:01	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19 game1	PARIVISION	BUY	670	20¢	$134	0x265b12…
07-19 14:37:19	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19 game1	PARIVISION	BUY	270	63¢	$170	0x04dc49…
07-19 14:37:15	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19 game1	PARIVISION	BUY	1,021	63¢	$643	0x849d27…
07-19 14:37:12	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19 game1	PARIVISION	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x51055f…
07-19 11:00:49	dota2 vg ty 2026 07 19 game1	Team Yandex	SELL	3,185	100¢	$3,181	0x202da3…
07-19 10:45:36	dota2 vg ty 2026 07 19 game1	Team Yandex	BUY	3,185	92¢	$2,930	0x2caa26…
07-19 10:22:27	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	317	35¢	$111	0x7cabad…
07-19 10:22:27	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	790	35¢	$276	0x56c70c…
07-19 09:46:57	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	13	35¢	$4	0xfcfb6a…
07-19 09:32:10	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	2,454	41¢	$1,000	0x227553…
07-19 09:01:19	dota2 bb4 pari 2026 07 19	PARIVISION	BUY	1,600	62¢	$992	0x98eeca…
07-19 06:23:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x649ae2…
07-19 06:01:58	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	92	30¢	$28	0x71e7e7…
07-18 21:28:57	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	1,071	28¢	$300	0xb41f21…
07-18 17:26:39	dota2 ty pari 2026 07 18	PARIVISION	SELL	2,083	100¢	$2,081	0x969007…
07-18 16:18:24	dota2 ty pari 2026 07 18 game2	Team Yandex	SELL	1,862	100¢	$1,860	0x669cfb…
07-18 16:17:55	dota2 ty pari 2026 07 18	PARIVISION	BUY	2,083	46¢	$958	0x13ce43…
07-18 15:16:06	dota2 ty pari 2026 07 18 game2	Team Yandex	BUY	1,000	45¢	$450	0xa7fabc…
07-18 15:09:06	dota2 ty pari 2026 07 18 game2	Team Yandex	BUY	862	58¢	$500	0x207368…
07-17 16:23:46	dota2 ngx bb4 2026 07 16	BetBoom Team	SELL	2,899	100¢	$2,896	0xe392fa…
07-17 15:54:00	dota2 ngx bb4 2026 07 16 game2	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	417	19¢	$79	0xf80662…
07-17 15:50:01	dota2 ngx bb4 2026 07 16 game2	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	2,216	31¢	$687	0x8e7f3f…
07-17 14:18:51	dota2 ngx bb4 2026 07 16	BetBoom Team	BUY	2,899	69¢	$2,000	0x9f9191…
07-17 13:16:01	dota2 flc vg 2026 07 16 game2	Team Falcons	BUY	592	23¢	$135	0xb84cf2…
07-17 12:27:18	dota2 flc vg 2026 07 16	Team Falcons	BUY	1,786	56¢	$1,000	0x523984…
07-17 12:25:49	dota2 flc vg 2026 07 16	Team Falcons	BUY	976	54¢	$527	0xe2e7ae…
07-17 06:49:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	4,467	8¢	$351	0x2f4a89…
07-16 11:37:58	dota2 ty ts8 2026 07 17	Team Spirit	BUY	1,035	29¢	$300	0xa93f90…
07-16 10:07:04	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	11,941	33¢	$3,940	0x1a6fb0…
07-16 08:56:56	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	1,389	33¢	$458	0xdaf536…
07-16 08:56:56	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0x0521d7…
07-16 07:43:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	5,758	4¢	$207	0xcb3c11…
07-15 14:43:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	5,758	13¢	$765	0xd4b99d…
07-15 13:28:19	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	158	26¢	$41	0x656536…
07-15 11:33:29	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf0e300…
07-15 10:37:43	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	203	26¢	$53	0x56f4c8…
07-15 08:03:53	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	34	26¢	$9	0xa0f270…
07-15 07:36:25	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xf83f18…
07-15 07:26:19	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x1a92cc…
07-14 11:14:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	4,467	23¢	$1,006	0xc0bfa4…
07-14 06:22:43	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	Yes	SELL	270	2¢	$4	0x6c9cb4…
07-13 11:40:35	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	1,634	60¢	$976	0x032ac8…
07-13 11:39:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5,237	19¢	$995	0x2a4360…
07-11 07:10:07	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	Yes	BUY	270	8¢	$23	0xe39157…
07-10 09:54:02	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	15,049	14¢	$2,107	0x956cae…
07-09 05:55:26	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	48	19¢	$9	0x965910…
07-09 05:41:46	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x37e24a…
07-09 04:40:22	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	123	19¢	$23	0xdd39d3…
07-09 04:40:05	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	123	19¢	$23	0x0f098c…
07-09 04:39:56	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	123	19¢	$23	0x2a6cb7…
07-09 03:36:58	israel closes its airspace by august 31	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x687094…