Vivacious-Thickness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$160

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

745

Trades

2,818

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-21 19:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 186 days

Categories

Other

54% 65% -$102

Politics

36% 61% -$22

Tech

3% 61% -$7

Sports

2% 68% -$2

Crypto

2% 38% -$28

Pop-Culture

1% 62% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	43	$155	174	174	+0	No	-$1	09-13 19:01
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	35	$153	80	80	+0	No	+$0	05-23 15:06
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	31	$142	75	75	+0	No	$0	06-22 07:12
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	22	$125	138	138	+0	No	+$3	08-27 15:23
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	29	$120	67	67	+0	No	+$0	05-26 10:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	29	$119	70	70	+0	No	+$1	05-31 01:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	26	$111	60	60	+0	No	+$0	05-30 09:24
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	31	$111	120	112	+8	No	+$1	08-28 15:41
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	25	$108	60	60	+0	No	-$1	05-29 17:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	25	$100	106	106	+0	No	-$1	05-25 21:48
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	19	$87	45	45	+0	Yes	+$1	06-29 12:09
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	23	$86	45	45	+0	No	+$0	06-01 01:39
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	19	$83	45	45	+0	No	$0	05-29 15:00
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	18	$82	45	45	+0	No	+$0	05-30 11:02
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	18	$80	42	42	+0	No	$0	06-01 01:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	16	$77	40	40	+0	No	+$0	06-10 21:58
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	16	$76	40	40	+0	No	+$0	05-26 18:03
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	17	$74	40	40	+0	No	+$0	05-30 15:13
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?	16	$74	40	40	+0	No	-$1	05-29 18:20
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?	15	$73	39	39	+0	No	$0	06-01 01:40
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open?	15	$68	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-30 11:53
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	15	$67	35	35	+0	No	+$0	06-09 08:05
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?	14	$66	35	35	+0	No	$0	05-09 18:26
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	24	$63	79	79	+0	No	+$1	09-08 20:04
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	19	$63	41	41	+0	No	$0	06-01 01:38
iran closes its airspace by june 15	16	$62	40	40	+0	Yes	-$3	06-07 18:31
will wti reach 85 in august 2026	17	$62	52	52	+0	Yes	+$1	08-14 13:18
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	14	$59	79	79	+0	Yes	-$1	09-02 16:51
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	13	$58	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-31 18:16
will wti reach 85 in august 2026 from august 26	12	$55	56	56	+0	Yes	+$2	08-30 19:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 19:33:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x91b085…
09-21 17:40:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xb49486…
09-21 17:16:55	Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?	Yes	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x031dae…
09-21 14:43:57	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x1a6466…
09-21 14:37:39	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xadec2d…
09-21 14:29:05	Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x0a5812…
09-21 14:03:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1bdd9f…
09-21 14:01:24	Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xd5081b…
09-21 12:46:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0x74948d…
09-21 12:46:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x95e238…
09-21 12:17:18	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0xef7405…
09-21 12:17:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x4061ec…
09-21 12:01:45	Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x8f4365…
09-21 02:15:43	Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x97e85a…
09-21 01:34:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x938383…
09-20 21:48:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x0c6242…
09-20 19:35:05	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 28?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xacc14d…
09-20 13:30:21	Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x3adb5b…
09-20 12:19:15	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x2680e2…
09-20 11:48:12	Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x3088bf…
09-20 06:30:27	Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0xa97937…
09-20 02:23:30	will the greenland agreement text be released by september 23 2026 copy copy	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x48d9a4…
09-20 01:54:36	will the greenland agreement text be released by september 23 2026 copy copy	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe28d96…
09-19 22:59:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xa61830…
09-19 20:35:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x23bbfa…
09-19 20:34:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x4fb567…
09-19 18:59:39	Will Vitality Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$3	0xcba21f…
09-19 16:38:54	Will Vitality Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xc192bf…
09-19 06:23:36	Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0d6044…
09-19 05:21:10	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x60ab16…
09-19 05:20:58	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x23cc09…
09-18 20:04:54	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x02455a…
09-18 13:30:09	Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf5fa23…
09-18 10:50:06	Will Vitality Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x548b66…
09-18 10:49:10	Will Vitality Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x9ea4db…
09-18 09:58:43	Will Vitality Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xee71f7…
09-18 03:04:36	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x170455…
09-17 21:31:40	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5587d0…
09-17 12:11:55	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x79b74f…
09-17 12:11:48	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xc403ef…
09-17 12:10:48	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0xedc8c9…
09-17 11:20:55	Will Vitality Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x9b059c…
09-16 20:07:45	Will Vitality Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xcdb825…
09-16 16:52:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x629d48…
09-16 15:47:27	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	SELL	3	51¢	$1	0x3f1d18…
09-16 15:47:21	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	SELL	7	51¢	$4	0xc61d9d…
09-16 09:38:21	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0xd4bdf4…
09-16 09:36:28	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x4d2d16…
09-16 05:02:54	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xc4fd12…
09-15 03:59:33	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x975642…
09-14 14:19:10	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0xc04b13…
09-14 13:15:24	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xa87a28…
09-14 00:43:55	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x04a69a…
09-14 00:05:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x344b14…
09-13 19:01:36	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x1eba45…
09-13 17:14:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0xa0ecac…
09-13 14:20:42	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x912d1d…
09-13 13:32:03	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xbf7fc2…
09-13 13:17:34	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x9cb9e5…
09-13 12:00:57	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 15	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x429c3c…
09-13 11:17:22	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x8b3bfd…
09-13 10:17:34	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0xf9c011…
09-13 09:24:45	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xb0e251…
09-13 08:19:21	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xd3a6f5…
09-13 07:37:16	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0x0a4a81…
09-13 04:00:00	Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xfbb284…
09-12 23:07:01	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x068fbf…
09-12 23:06:13	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x06a784…
09-12 22:35:43	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xf3b672…
09-12 21:24:21	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xdcadae…
09-12 19:43:55	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x763744…
09-12 19:43:43	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0x276a9d…
09-12 18:38:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x6ad967…
09-12 18:18:37	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x835bc7…
09-12 17:39:10	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x184f75…
09-12 17:07:15	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xfeca32…
09-12 17:01:22	Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x04ae36…
09-12 16:51:34	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x3ffaa0…
09-12 16:45:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x6a7ca4…
09-12 16:32:43	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xa89cb0…
09-12 14:32:00	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xc07937…
09-12 13:58:25	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xe695e2…
09-12 13:50:40	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xdaed95…
09-12 13:38:52	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 15	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x880fa2…
09-12 13:38:21	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 15	Yes	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0x78b8d2…
09-12 13:08:10	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 15	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xaab994…
09-12 13:05:55	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 15	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xbb15a7…
09-12 12:59:06	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xadfe8a…
09-12 12:50:31	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x9d903e…
09-12 12:01:40	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xd20da4…
09-12 12:00:15	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xdca11e…
09-12 11:03:28	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xaef519…
09-12 10:10:45	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x015a4a…
09-12 10:08:46	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xe37c5c…
09-12 09:27:27	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x7d4d36…
09-12 09:11:27	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x5a88d3…
09-12 08:22:24	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xd74757…
09-12 08:08:58	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x69e3a7…
09-12 07:30:09	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x755dac…
09-12 02:43:19	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xfd6cd5…