Harmonious-Beastie — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

97.2%

Resolved

Trades

129

lifetime

Volume

$465

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-02

last 06-05 01:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

49% — —

Politics

25% 100% +$6

Other

25% 50% $-0

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes		-300	$-13	1¢	$-4	+$9	06-05 01:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	4	$39	140	110	+30	open	—	03-02 00:43
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	6	$37	800	800	+0	open	—	03-15 20:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$30	100	100	+0	Yes	+$6	05-08 18:00
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	2	$23	60	60	+0	open	—	03-23 12:14
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	5	$23	100	100	+0	open	—	03-24 22:21
bitcoin up or down february 20 6am et	3	$20	20	10	+10	open	—	02-20 11:59
bitcoin up or down february 19 5am et	3	$20	20	10	+10	open	—	02-19 11:23
will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	10	$15	240	240	+0	open	—	03-13 14:53
trump out as president by march 31	2	$14	180	180	+0	open	—	03-02 05:34
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	1	$13	0	300	-300	open	—	06-05 01:52
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$13	100	100	+0	open	—	03-05 13:15
will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	3	$12	280	280	+0	open	—	03-14 09:25
military action against iran ends by march 24 2026	2	$12	100	100	+0	open	—	03-23 10:48
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	12	$11	753	0	+753	open	—	03-02 14:18
bitcoin up or down february 19 6am et	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-19 11:00
bitcoin up or down february 17 8am et	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-17 12:57
bitcoin up or down february 17 7am et	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-17 11:56
bitcoin up or down february 17 9am et	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-17 14:00
bitcoin up or down february 13 6am et	3	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-13 11:07
bitcoin up or down february 13 5am et	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-13 10:18
bitcoin up or down february 16 10am et	4	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-16 15:00
bitcoin up or down february 18 6am et	3	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-18 10:43
bitcoin up or down february 20 8am et	3	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-20 12:58
bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	4	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-19 13:00
bitcoin up or down february 16 9am et	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-16 13:47
bitcoin up or down february 18 5am et	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	02-18 10:10
bitcoin up or down february 20 7am et	2	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	02-20 12:05
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	3	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	05-11 20:14
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	4	$6	100	0	+100	open	—	04-10 07:54
bitcoin up or down february 12 7am et	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	02-12 11:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 01:52:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	300	4¢	$13	0xd80217…
05-29 05:13:39	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x96b280…
05-28 17:07:48	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	59¢	$1	0xef5ccc…
05-11 20:25:51	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.30 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0xe67fc7…
05-11 20:14:40	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	No	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x240467…
05-11 19:57:54	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	No	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0x30550e…
05-11 19:56:49	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.30 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x4d3b29…
05-11 16:02:23	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xc80a60…
05-11 09:42:45	Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x387028…
05-11 08:40:58	Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xec8a5f…
05-11 07:41:07	Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0x4775ab…
05-11 07:32:19	Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xa188f2…
05-10 23:05:15	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.30 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x85d64c…
05-10 21:12:33	Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x053b48…
05-08 18:00:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x82102e…
04-10 11:34:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x9c5c9f…
04-10 07:54:07	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0xb905ff…
04-10 07:22:03	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xa093a9…
04-10 07:21:01	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xfd06e3…
04-10 07:20:43	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	BUY	72	6¢	$4	0x082548…
04-09 19:24:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	21¢	$10	0xaa160e…
03-24 22:21:07	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0xdf5df0…
03-24 14:23:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x8bbe2d…
03-23 12:14:39	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	SELL	60	21¢	$13	0x97dfff…
03-23 12:11:31	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0xa6aa48…
03-23 10:48:09	military action against iran ends by march 24 2026	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x5d7a49…
03-17 10:39:23	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xdaad52…
03-17 10:39:17	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xefc992…
03-17 10:21:21	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc2e1ee…
03-17 10:11:25	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x78d63c…
03-15 20:42:41	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	660	3¢	$20	0x52f6d1…
03-15 14:13:45	military action against iran ends by march 24 2026	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x9aa82d…
03-15 05:30:25	will mclaren double podium at the 2026 chinese grand prix	Yes	BUY	46	3¢	$1	0x5ea5ec…
03-14 09:25:59	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	261	2¢	$7	0xf710a7…
03-14 09:24:43	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	19	2¢	$0	0xe122c2…
03-13 14:53:07	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x228fbc…
03-13 14:36:49	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	125	4¢	$5	0x50e375…
03-12 15:08:29	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x4e34cb…
03-08 16:14:23	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	71	2¢	$1	0xea9d30…
03-07 17:07:27	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0x94c3b2…
03-07 16:18:45	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0x68935c…
03-07 16:17:39	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0x20bb0e…
03-07 16:17:09	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xe3e567…
03-07 16:03:25	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0xe4a405…
03-06 23:27:43	will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x1d9308…
03-05 13:15:59	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0xf3c794…
03-05 07:55:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x7068da…
03-05 05:58:57	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	260	1¢	$3	0xecdcdf…
03-05 03:15:45	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1040 1079	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0xe5f324…
03-03 04:53:43	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1040 1079	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x0d2317…
03-02 21:48:45	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1040 1079	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x6b26eb…
03-02 21:48:11	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1040 1079	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x989889…
03-02 15:35:17	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	346	2¢	$6	0x5d4f6c…
03-02 15:35:07	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0xc2129e…
03-02 15:11:13	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	140	4¢	$5	0xd7303c…
03-02 14:18:05	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xf74e73…
03-02 13:32:35	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x239d9c…
03-02 13:31:39	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x167c13…
03-02 13:28:21	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x28394c…
03-02 12:59:37	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x3f5cc0…
03-02 12:58:55	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x118811…
03-02 12:58:37	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xc57c80…
03-02 12:58:29	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xa57cfc…
03-02 12:58:23	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xf6a2e8…
03-02 12:58:21	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xfeae62…
03-02 12:58:13	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xd711a3…
03-02 12:39:41	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	654	2¢	$10	0x977aa5…
03-02 12:23:27	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	SELL	16	7¢	$1	0x376d5c…
03-02 08:39:05	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	280	2¢	$5	0x2e423e…
03-02 07:34:35	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0x3da69b…
03-02 07:23:33	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0x450fa6…
03-02 07:05:19	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xd61e09…
03-02 07:04:59	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x83b46f…
03-02 05:34:17	trump out as president by march 31	Yes	SELL	180	5¢	$9	0xe95f85…
03-02 00:43:43	Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	SELL	110	17¢	$19	0x21382a…
03-01 07:17:51	trump out as president by march 31	Yes	BUY	180	3¢	$5	0x36339f…
03-01 07:09:19	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	140	2¢	$2	0xe09774…
02-21 20:46:46	Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0xa96336…
02-21 20:14:32	Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xb43bc6…
02-20 12:58:10	bitcoin up or down february 20 8am et	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xcfacda…
02-20 12:58:04	bitcoin up or down february 20 8am et	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x8e8434…
02-20 12:44:16	bitcoin up or down february 20 8am et	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x41fb25…
02-20 12:05:34	bitcoin up or down february 20 7am et	Down	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x15d540…
02-20 11:59:44	bitcoin up or down february 20 6am et	Down	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x175b39…
02-20 11:37:32	bitcoin up or down february 20 7am et	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2fe848…
02-20 10:58:58	bitcoin up or down february 20 6am et	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x8c8003…
02-20 10:00:36	bitcoin up or down february 20 6am et	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x052cca…
02-19 13:00:46	bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x0b134b…
02-19 12:19:02	bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x9b74c6…
02-19 12:01:10	bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x274d39…
02-19 12:00:20	bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xfeb413…
02-19 11:23:30	bitcoin up or down february 19 5am et	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7a147b…
02-19 11:00:04	bitcoin up or down february 19 6am et	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xef6366…
02-19 10:51:24	bitcoin up or down february 19 6am et	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7087ee…
02-19 10:01:08	bitcoin up or down february 19 5am et	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe9f7ad…
02-19 09:45:06	bitcoin up or down february 19 5am et	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9f2770…
02-18 14:43:42	bitcoin up or down february 18 10am et	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x49d3ed…
02-18 14:35:40	bitcoin up or down february 18 10am et	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x582089…
02-18 10:43:26	bitcoin up or down february 18 6am et	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x548b57…
02-18 10:39:24	bitcoin up or down february 18 6am et	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x02e6f8…