Royal-Ashtray — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$785

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.4%

Resolved

1,801

Trades

3,863

lifetime

Volume

$39.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 08-03 15:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 76% -$784

Other

2% 91% -$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-03).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 15:05 UTC	14	$650	700	0	+700	Down	+$50	06-10 15:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6AM ET	5	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	05-28 10:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 13:15 UTC	42	$459	510	0	+510	Down	-$459	06-14 13:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 14:35 UTC	10	$455	486	0	+486	Up	+$31	06-05 14:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 14:10 UTC	10	$438	459	0	+459	Down	+$22	06-09 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 14:20 UTC	18	$426	700	0	+700	Up	-$16	06-12 14:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	9	$394	451	0	+451	Up	+$7	05-29 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	38	$386	596	50	+546	Down	-$164	05-31 11:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	4	$340	350	0	+350	Down	+$10	06-05 17:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 17:45 UTC	8	$334	400	0	+400	Up	+$16	06-10 17:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	10	$312	202	202	+0	Down	+$14	05-27 14:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 14:40 UTC	7	$306	255	255	+0	Down	-$69	06-05 14:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 12:55 UTC	3	$297	300	0	+300	Up	+$3	06-07 12:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 17:50 UTC	3	$294	300	0	+300	Up	+$6	06-05 17:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 10:10 UTC	6	$292	300	0	+300	Down	+$8	06-08 10:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 09:20 UTC	6	$290	300	0	+300	Up	+$10	06-05 09:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 13:35 UTC	6	$286	300	0	+300	Up	+$14	06-10 13:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 12:45 UTC	7	$286	300	0	+300	Up	+$14	06-10 12:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	9	$282	300	0	+300	Down	-$32	05-31 12:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 09:25 UTC	6	$270	275	0	+275	Up	+$4	06-05 09:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	9	$257	455	0	+455	Up	-$7	05-29 15:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 10:55 UTC	8	$247	400	0	+400	Up	+$3	06-11 10:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 14:45 UTC	5	$244	250	0	+250	Down	+$6	06-10 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	8	$243	402	0	+402	Up	+$8	05-29 15:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 19:00 UTC	10	$243	320	0	+320	Down	-$78	07-07 19:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 14:40 UTC	5	$239	250	0	+250	Up	+$11	06-10 14:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 14:35 UTC	9	$238	410	0	+410	Up	+$12	06-12 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	13	$235	360	0	+360	Down	-$15	05-29 11:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 14:15 UTC	8	$226	400	0	+400	Down	-$26	06-12 14:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 18:15 UTC	4	$216	402	0	+402	Down	-$15	06-05 18:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 15:17:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x519efc…
08-03 13:26:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x6b776c…
08-03 13:13:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xc0e920…
08-03 12:18:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 12:15 UTC	Down	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x48e113…
08-03 12:17:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x873d19…
08-03 12:17:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xcc100b…
08-03 12:16:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xc3fd98…
08-03 11:48:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x12c489…
08-03 11:31:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 11:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xa3fd3f…
07-31 13:44:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x27e84d…
07-30 15:21:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 15:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0f8df1…
07-29 17:04:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xa8c1e0…
07-29 16:49:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xb8f264…
07-29 16:32:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xdc945d…
07-29 13:32:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa06d31…
07-27 14:39:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xb04ef4…
07-27 14:38:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x88b603…
07-27 14:38:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0190a2…
07-27 14:38:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3f3ddf…
07-27 13:55:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x306b83…
07-27 13:53:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x3b0b64…
07-27 13:52:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 13:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xe30f33…
07-27 10:22:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf9a0e7…
07-25 08:02:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x3db804…
07-25 04:54:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 04:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x751dff…
07-24 14:18:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xf1f8a5…
07-24 14:18:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x803f80…
07-24 14:03:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x9d1f9c…
07-24 12:57:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x678738…
07-24 12:28:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 12:25 UTC	Down	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x12e1a5…
07-23 14:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x987d92…
07-23 13:54:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 13:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x888125…
07-23 13:51:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 13:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x3fee92…
07-23 13:37:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 13:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xe3384e…
07-23 13:32:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x9e9322…
07-23 12:54:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-23 12:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xf1e66c…
07-23 12:52:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xfbabf0…
07-23 12:33:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x89891a…
07-23 12:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x2f94f7…
07-23 12:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x5b5de6…
07-23 12:17:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xda3706…
07-23 12:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xd2971e…
07-23 12:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4b49e6…
07-23 12:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe45d64…
07-22 11:46:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x175aff…
07-22 11:14:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe70dab…
07-22 11:14:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xf663cd…
07-22 11:14:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x1411c8…
07-22 11:13:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x00a213…
07-21 14:35:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xe12bc0…
07-21 14:29:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 14:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xafe42d…
07-21 14:25:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x626713…
07-21 14:25:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x314dd3…
07-21 14:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa09db7…
07-21 14:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x8ca080…
07-21 09:37:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x9ba464…
07-21 07:34:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x38d497…
07-21 07:34:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1aba0f…
07-21 07:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x8be51d…
07-20 12:46:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 12:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x903ac9…
07-20 12:43:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 12:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x7692db…
07-20 12:38:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 12:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x6ba848…
07-20 12:32:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x0261e1…
07-20 12:28:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 12:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x4152cc…
07-20 12:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x87c7e7…
07-20 10:44:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x83d77b…
07-20 10:41:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x3d9383…
07-20 10:40:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x597155…
07-20 10:39:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xb53cb5…
07-20 10:32:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x01ad19…
07-20 10:28:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd23e91…
07-20 10:04:04	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x653ac5…
07-20 09:47:18	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xf3c205…
07-20 09:43:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x08fb0e…
07-20 09:19:15	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x6973cc…
07-20 08:53:12	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x56bf6a…
07-20 08:44:21	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xcfbe86…
07-20 08:06:13	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xcda545…
07-20 07:53:46	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf37005…
07-20 07:24:13	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe7b143…
07-20 07:11:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1daff9…
07-20 06:40:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x8cad4f…
07-20 06:34:40	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x91789b…
07-20 06:23:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x9b365a…
07-20 06:07:39	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x5bdbec…
07-20 05:39:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xf728a2…
07-20 05:34:24	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xfe93a3…
07-20 05:34:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x5d539b…
07-20 05:18:42	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x5d65a0…
07-20 05:08:04	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xb8f216…
07-20 05:08:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x283c6d…
07-20 03:51:31	Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x98e141…
07-20 03:34:40	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x7ac8cf…
07-19 23:37:40	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x9fa741…
07-19 18:53:06	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xeb046c…
07-19 11:57:58	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x17f4eb…
07-19 11:22:15	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xd9d78e…
07-19 11:22:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xbe7c96…
07-19 10:03:37	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xeb00da…
07-19 09:16:13	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x828a8e…