Polished-Silly — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.0%

Resolved

108

Trades

130

lifetime

Volume

$1.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-25 22:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

46% 97% $0

Politics

41% 100% +$11

Crypto

11% 100% +$0

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	2	$78	39	39	+0	No	+$0	10-08 05:39
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$78	39	39	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 06:36
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$77	39	39	+0	No	+$0	09-30 17:29
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	2	$77	39	39	+0	No	+$0	08-14 17:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	3	$76	38	38	-0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$74	39	39	+0	No	-$1	08-25 13:10
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	09-01 05:02
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	2	$39	39	0	+39	No	+$0	08-21 12:04
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	1	$38	39	0	+39	Yes	+$0	09-22 15:30
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	09-30 17:42
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	08-15 12:39
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$38	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:03
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$38	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	08-05 07:14
laptop fdv above 1pt5b one day after launch	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	09-10 19:28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	1	$38	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	09-04 06:17
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	06-26 20:46
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$27	39	39	+0	Yes	+$9	10-25 22:07
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	08-30 20:38
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	07-29 23:10
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	4	$21	35	35	+0	open	—	10-13 03:29
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$18	39	39	+0	No	+$0	10-17 11:03
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	05-31 10:28
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	08-26 19:40
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	06-28 11:12
will bitcoin dip to 40k in february 2026 785 212 222	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	02-25 11:13
will xauusd reach 4800 in june 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-28 12:24
will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-23 14:21
will solana dip to 50 in january 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-12 12:07
Will Solana reach $120 in April?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	04-25 20:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 22:09:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	104	0¢	$0	0xabc379…
10-25 22:09:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0x9ecacf…
10-25 22:07:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	39	47¢	$18	0x21d314…
10-24 14:01:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	140	0¢	$0	0xee11d9…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0x5b4e79…
10-17 11:03:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	39	23¢	$9	0x9bd783…
10-17 09:02:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0x5ef6a7…
10-13 03:29:29	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	35	29¢	$10	0x4e8487…
10-12 23:37:27	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x7a24f0…
10-12 23:06:35	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x472ee2…
10-12 22:52:08	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0x428b0b…
10-08 05:39:40	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xaa96a9…
10-06 06:46:36	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x2b4266…
10-05 06:36:25	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xbe9042…
10-05 00:32:59	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x74b070…
09-30 17:42:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x81afaf…
09-30 17:29:12	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$38	0xd3036c…
09-28 12:09:32	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$38	0x246719…
09-22 15:30:45	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$38	0x4cb5ff…
09-16 00:03:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x801055…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x77e719…
09-10 19:28:25	laptop fdv above 1pt5b one day after launch	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xeb89d1…
09-07 13:03:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xc72ac7…
09-06 03:04:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x8c60c9…
09-06 03:02:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x27db4c…
09-04 06:17:03	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x891479…
09-01 05:02:25	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x3233e2…
08-31 02:30:16	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x314a79…
08-30 20:38:21	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xf1bed5…
08-26 19:40:09	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x81b23a…
08-25 13:10:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	39	93¢	$36	0xa62dba…
08-24 02:46:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0x5e936a…
08-21 12:04:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc49ed9…
08-21 11:41:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xf28c80…
08-15 12:39:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0xb39fa0…
08-14 17:15:15	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	39	100¢	$38	0x530cb2…
08-10 16:02:48	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0xec262e…
08-10 08:52:57	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	0¢	$0	0x9aacc4…
08-05 07:14:05	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x09304a…
07-29 23:10:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xd9f1ef…
07-27 21:04:03	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1eed87…
07-27 04:25:06	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5f27e3…
07-24 10:29:55	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3be975…
07-23 17:14:54	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb1aadb…
07-23 07:35:51	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x829aa1…
07-23 00:00:49	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd1e145…
07-22 09:41:39	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5b099f…
07-21 21:25:01	will ethereum dip to 1200 in july 2026 853	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x578df5…
07-20 22:32:24	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x502dfb…
07-17 17:29:24	will wti dip to 50 in july 2026 844	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x60e7f1…
07-13 00:50:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x4b3978…
07-12 11:15:26	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x543d07…
07-12 03:27:31	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd52319…
06-29 18:47:43	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5f3886…
06-29 12:43:19	will wti reach 90 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1afd72…
06-29 04:26:31	will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x42d112…
06-28 14:34:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xe8fce7…
06-28 12:24:04	will xauusd reach 4800 in june 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x270aa7…
06-28 11:12:28	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xb8212a…
06-26 21:30:52	Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6ab742…
06-26 20:46:37	Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xf3d895…
06-26 18:29:35	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xc45085…
05-31 10:28:58	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x20ac66…
05-10 15:55:48	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6710af…
05-08 10:27:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdb3f99…
05-08 09:31:25	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf4d872…
05-08 08:55:40	Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb6db88…
05-08 05:32:40	Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x30d236…
05-07 14:39:16	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3656e4…
05-07 12:40:00	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x60e9a1…
05-07 07:41:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x04f50c…
05-06 04:48:22	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x352eef…
05-05 21:45:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1bb749…
05-05 20:18:26	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x55843f…
05-05 17:45:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa228d0…
05-05 04:19:36	Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1324e2…
04-30 20:11:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x953ade…
04-27 14:05:22	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $200 end of April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x330ab1…
04-25 20:17:02	Will Solana reach $120 in April?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1724f6…
04-23 21:10:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x8edaa2…
04-22 06:21:42	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xe4f7b5…
04-19 04:16:08	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x443179…
04-19 01:37:32	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc6a76a…
04-17 21:32:10	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3fb833…
04-17 06:19:32	Will Baidu have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x96f732…
04-16 08:43:04	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe252e7…
04-15 13:46:52	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa76698…
04-13 19:38:31	Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x24a99b…
04-06 22:50:57	Will Solana dip to $20 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x57c612…
03-30 17:47:57	nvda above 180 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4e8805…
03-28 03:10:19	will deepseek have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe412f7…
03-26 10:19:27	will solana dip to 20 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb57a10…
03-26 04:06:05	will ethereum dip to 800 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2960b3…
03-24 08:03:03	will ethena reach 0pt2 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2cd393…
03-20 09:45:45	will ethena reach 0pt32 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdec0cf…
03-18 03:09:55	will solana dip to 30 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaaa4d7…
03-17 09:45:17	will saudi aramco be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2a3099…
03-16 00:49:33	will bnb reach 900 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x925cd9…
03-14 02:01:31	aapl above 320 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xe5c842…
03-11 11:13:31	will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8e71fc…