Better-March — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$167

Unrealized P&L

-$43

Hit rate

14.5%

Resolved

Trades

2,458

lifetime

Volume

$23.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$159

1 position

First seen

2026-03-11

last 06-09 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 22% $-167

Politics

9% — —

Other

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 187 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		-175	$-116	90¢	$-159	$-43	05-29 21:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	8	$581	369	369	+0	open	—	06-02 21:29
btc updown 5m 1773601200	49	$480	380	316	+65	open	—	03-15 19:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	3	$479	247	247	+0	open	—	06-06 13:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	8	$416	283	283	+0	open	—	06-02 21:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	6	$343	192	192	+0	open	—	06-02 21:16
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	2	$326	176	176	+0	open	—	05-30 12:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$283	146	146	+0	open	—	06-01 10:03
btc updown 5m 1773681300	35	$276	230	163	+67	open	—	03-16 17:18
btc updown 5m 1773782100	15	$256	168	167	+1	open	—	03-17 21:21
btc updown 5m 1773832500	6	$235	172	171	+1	open	—	03-18 11:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	7	$224	160	160	+0	open	—	05-18 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$208	110	110	+0	open	—	06-02 19:59
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	2	$207	141	141	+0	open	—	06-01 15:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	2	$207	111	111	+0	open	—	06-01 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	2	$202	108	108	+0	open	—	06-02 21:12
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	2	$200	304	0	+304	open	—	06-08 10:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$198	114	114	+0	open	—	06-02 20:46
btc updown 5m 1776455100	3	$197	149	137	+12	open	—	04-17 19:51
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	2	$172	171	171	+0	open	—	06-01 21:51
btc updown 5m 1773270900	4	$170	82	115	-34	open	—	03-11 23:20
btc updown 5m 1773761700	12	$165	103	108	-5	open	—	03-17 15:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	2	$149	80	80	+0	open	—	05-24 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	3	$138	154	87	+67	open	—	06-02 21:33
btc updown 5m 1773683400	22	$137	112	107	+5	open	—	03-16 17:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	4	$123	65	65	+0	open	—	05-18 23:44
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	2	$121	67	67	+0	open	—	05-30 20:05
btc updown 5m 1773677700	4	$116	62	82	-19	open	—	03-16 16:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$116	0	175	-175	open	—	05-29 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	4	$113	148	103	+45	open	—	05-18 22:48
btc updown 5m 1773672600	5	$112	68	84	-16	open	—	03-16 14:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 16:00:33	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	106	17¢	$18	0x40095f…
06-09 12:30:34	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	162	31¢	$50	0x037c6a…
06-09 10:45:19	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	3¢	$9	0x1936e7…
06-08 15:52:55	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0x0d264c…
06-08 10:19:22	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x37a3ab…
06-07 18:07:00	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	148	68¢	$100	0xed2f27…
06-06 13:50:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	247	99¢	$244	0xd51de5…
06-02 21:35:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	147	95¢	$140	0xbcc037…
06-02 21:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x27d961…
06-02 21:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	87	44¢	$38	0xf3df3b…
06-02 21:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	87	57¢	$50	0x694205…
06-02 21:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	41	99¢	$40	0x81b078…
06-02 21:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x8c1fe7…
06-02 21:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	153	91¢	$139	0x49ed97…
06-02 21:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	153	98¢	$150	0x12aaa1…
06-02 21:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	68	78¢	$53	0xa18e12…
06-02 21:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x82880a…
06-02 21:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	107	55¢	$59	0x34a92f…
06-02 21:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	107	47¢	$50	0xa097e3…
06-02 21:23:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	56	96¢	$54	0xcb0469…
06-02 21:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x9dd393…
06-02 21:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x53cb4f…
06-02 21:20:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x3d444a…
06-02 21:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	70	77¢	$54	0x0c78e0…
06-02 21:20:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x644537…
06-02 21:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	96	56¢	$54	0x4f8683…
06-02 21:19:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x0d3da1…
06-02 21:16:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	105	96¢	$101	0xdbfb23…
06-02 21:16:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x5428db…
06-02 21:15:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	36	89¢	$32	0x275abe…
06-02 21:15:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x7686af…
06-02 21:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	51	79¢	$40	0x3fece7…
06-02 21:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	51	79¢	$40	0x06e3cb…
06-02 21:12:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	108	95¢	$102	0xf4ef2d…
06-02 21:12:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xfe81d1…
06-02 20:46:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x6a0b62…
06-02 20:46:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	114	86¢	$98	0x0de91c…
06-02 20:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xe0fd92…
06-02 20:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	23	80¢	$18	0x1f7ff3…
06-02 20:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x34f758…
06-02 20:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	26	80¢	$21	0x07d55e…
06-02 20:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x9c722a…
06-02 20:37:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x61c449…
06-02 20:36:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	17	71¢	$12	0x021391…
06-02 20:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x58ce48…
06-02 20:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x14b029…
06-02 20:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x0e5bb9…
06-02 20:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x501851…
06-02 20:23:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x95fd4e…
06-02 20:23:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x2bdcd3…
06-02 19:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	110	98¢	$108	0x34ea79…
06-02 19:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x64d824…
06-01 21:51:38	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	SELL	181	16¢	$29	0xee4772…
06-01 21:51:10	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	SELL	171	42¢	$72	0xb5a75d…
06-01 15:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	111	96¢	$107	0x59c886…
06-01 15:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x40f14e…
06-01 15:25:19	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	SELL	141	76¢	$107	0xd266ea…
06-01 10:49:40	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0xb1d8df…
06-01 10:03:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xd7c5d6…
05-30 20:06:38	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	181	33¢	$59	0x5b8283…
05-30 20:05:02	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	67	92¢	$61	0xa388aa…
05-30 17:02:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	101	98¢	$99	0x2d918f…
05-30 12:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	52	73¢	$38	0x953cb1…
05-30 12:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x7c69cf…
05-30 12:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x12ad0f…
05-30 12:38:31	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	67	90¢	$60	0x514d18…
05-30 12:32:06	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	171	58¢	$100	0x534d40…
05-30 12:31:27	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	176	95¢	$168	0xaadcc6…
05-29 21:30:19	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	176	90¢	$158	0x3ec1e7…
05-29 21:29:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	94¢	$42	0xa30a9f…
05-29 21:29:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	175	66¢	$116	0x4af764…
05-29 21:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0x6bf4a6…
05-29 21:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	10	93¢	$10	0xcc9c54…
05-29 21:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x2644f1…
05-29 20:06:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0xe90f13…
05-29 20:05:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x82e20c…
05-29 20:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x060b5d…
05-29 20:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x492d63…
05-28 23:14:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0x0fb644…
05-28 22:54:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0x003fe0…
05-28 10:18:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0xa07a24…
05-27 18:33:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	46	97¢	$45	0xe13f32…
05-27 16:24:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	43	99¢	$43	0x9e06b4…
05-27 16:24:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0x30344a…
05-24 18:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x5a4689…
05-24 14:59:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xb35a24…
05-24 14:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	80	88¢	$70	0x34256f…
05-23 20:02:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x2917f6…
05-23 19:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xd12805…
05-20 14:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0xa07886…
05-20 14:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xe594b9…
05-20 11:13:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x6261d3…
05-19 20:25:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	42	98¢	$41	0x1160f6…
05-19 00:11:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x55b198…
05-18 23:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x5de7b1…
05-18 23:48:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0x16b827…
05-18 23:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x2f5757…
05-18 23:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	32	99¢	$31	0xadede0…
05-18 23:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x45d0e9…
05-18 23:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	34	94¢	$32	0x7c233d…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x38e5…8a4a	659	$374.0K	104,002	06-02 21:34
(anonymous) 0x6cf4…e1fa	619	$1.07K	2,936	06-02 21:34
(anonymous) 0x4543…72d1	561	$138.7K	32,058	04-17 19:50
(anonymous) 0xd216…eead	557	$1.18K	2,413	06-02 21:35
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	546	$140.6K	17,538	06-02 21:34
(anonymous) 0x09ae…55bc	546	$10.2K	1,485	04-17 19:47
(anonymous) 0x297f…5103	540	$128.0K	46,725	03-18 17:23
(anonymous) 0x7164…9db6	539	$230.2K	41,650	03-18 17:24