Careless-Observatory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$107

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$73

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 05-11 10:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 33% +$107

Other

4% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	3	$409	2,542	0	+2,542	Down	$-409	05-10 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	2	$305	793	0	+793	Up	+$488	05-10 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	1	$300	536	0	+536	Up	+$236	05-10 02:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	1	$300	341	0	+341	Down	+$41	05-10 02:31
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	2	$210	252	252	+0	open	—	01-17 12:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	1	$155	420	0	+420	Down	$-155	05-10 02:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	1	$100	200	0	+200	Down	$-100	05-10 02:05
btc updown 5m 1773394200	1	$100	550	0	+550	open	—	03-13 09:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	1	$94	180	0	+180	Up	+$86	05-10 14:11
btc updown 5m 1773618000	1	$75	1,380	0	+1,380	open	—	03-15 23:42
gc hit 4200 low jan 2026 289 371 251 294	1	$50	109	0	+109	open	—	01-05 00:39
will china gdp growth in q4 2025 be between 4pt5 and 5pt0	2	$41	22	22	+0	open	—	01-17 15:14
btc updown 15m 1768652100	1	$40	267	0	+267	open	—	01-17 12:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	1	$25	96	0	+96	Down	$-25	05-10 01:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	1	$25	70	0	+70	Down	$-25	05-10 02:01
will khamenei leave iran by friday	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	01-05 05:09
btc updown 15m 1768651200	2	$21	46	0	+46	open	—	01-17 12:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	1	$20	154	0	+154	Down	$-20	05-10 14:29
btc updown 5m 1773394500	1	$18	24	0	+24	open	—	03-13 09:36
btc updown 15m 1768653900	3	$12	58	0	+58	open	—	01-17 12:59
btc updown 15m 1768653000	2	$6	11	3	+8	open	—	01-17 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	1	$5	250	0	+250	Down	$-5	05-10 14:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	$-5	05-11 10:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 10:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xd4e3ad…
05-10 14:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0x1e66b1…
05-10 14:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xb0c0e3…
05-10 14:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	180	52¢	$94	0x0e6b0a…
05-10 14:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	968	18¢	$173	0x751736…
05-10 14:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	335	38¢	$127	0x54464b…
05-10 14:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1,239	9¢	$109	0x80c13a…
05-10 12:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	781	38¢	$300	0xd70119…
05-10 12:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x6ac095…
05-10 02:31:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0x30ac21…
05-10 02:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	536	56¢	$300	0x9ade3b…
05-10 02:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	420	37¢	$155	0xfc4270…
05-10 02:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xa95c4c…
05-10 02:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	70	35¢	$25	0xdb9e9d…
05-10 01:57:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x6d37f6…
03-15 23:42:49	btc updown 5m 1773618000	Down	BUY	1,380	5¢	$75	0x865801…
03-13 09:36:41	btc updown 5m 1773394500	Down	BUY	24	76¢	$18	0x6253e8…
03-13 09:34:07	btc updown 5m 1773394200	Down	BUY	550	18¢	$100	0xb5132f…
01-17 15:14:16	will china gdp growth in q4 2025 be between 4pt5 and 5pt0	Yes	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0x005152…
01-17 12:59:42	btc updown 15m 1768653900	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xbccb93…
01-17 12:58:32	btc updown 15m 1768653900	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xa62141…
01-17 12:54:14	btc updown 15m 1768653900	Up	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x44ecba…
01-17 12:50:04	will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	Yes	SELL	252	43¢	$109	0x96ad21…
01-17 12:39:24	btc updown 15m 1768653000	Up	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x9a28a1…
01-17 12:35:44	btc updown 15m 1768653000	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xc8078d…
01-17 12:22:06	btc updown 15m 1768652100	Up	BUY	267	15¢	$40	0x4a8132…
01-17 12:12:54	btc updown 15m 1768651200	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x915534…
01-17 11:48:52	btc updown 15m 1768651200	Up	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x10a737…
01-05 05:09:37	will khamenei leave iran by friday	No	BUY	23	96¢	$23	0x3b7218…
01-05 00:39:53	gc hit 4200 low jan 2026 289 371 251 294	Yes	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0xa7db82…
01-05 00:07:25	will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	Yes	BUY	252	40¢	$101	0xa3b7d5…
01-04 23:15:27	will china gdp growth in q4 2025 be between 4pt5 and 5pt0	Yes	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0x439e7a…