Ill-Informed-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.63K

Unrealized P&L

+$141

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved

Trades

4,594

lifetime

Volume

$231.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$1.02K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-30 16:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

52% 83% +$1,480

Other

28% 50% $-139

Sports

16% 100% +$288

Crypto

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 155 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	No	+550	$355	92¢	$509	+$153	06-09 18:52
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?	No	+476	$410	90¢	$426	+$17	06-13 12:25
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No	+70	$37	52¢	$37	$-0	06-12 03:38
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Yes	+200	$58	18¢	$36	$-22	06-11 20:54
Will Zoë Kravitz be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	Yes	+90	$22	17¢	$15	$-6	06-11 21:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	116	$24.8K	20,469	7,349	+13,120	open	—	01-18 20:06
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 2025	51	$24.1K	12,138	12,138	+0	open	—	02-08 21:04
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	236	$15.1K	26,116	26,047	+69	open	—	01-28 11:24
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 50 and 52	51	$5.5K	3,368	4,070	-702	open	—	02-20 04:42
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	03-31 21:42
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	89	$4.9K	8,001	400	+7,601	open	—	05-18 20:19
will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	83	$4.4K	3,210	3,210	+0	open	—	04-01 21:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	42	$4.4K	5,147	7,147	-2,000	open	—	01-16 23:53
will there be 12 14 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	15	$3.6K	2,048	1,829	+219	open	—	01-26 18:21
will the 2026 state of the union address last 100 minutes or longer	31	$3.5K	4,262	2,323	+1,939	open	—	02-24 16:30
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 48 and 50	38	$3.5K	3,193	3,093	+100	open	—	02-15 20:07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	35	$3.4K	2,447	4,447	-2,000	open	—	01-16 15:46
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	30	$2.4K	2,659	2,844	-185	open	—	05-19 13:42
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	37	$2.4K	1,808	1,808	+0	open	—	05-19 13:10
will antnio jos seguro win the first round	4	$2.3K	2,287	0	+2,287	open	—	01-19 10:52
bitcoin above 72k on february 11	46	$2.2K	8,000	4,000	+4,000	open	—	02-08 23:05
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	18	$2.2K	2,360	0	+2,360	open	—	04-01 15:42
will lus marques mendes win less than 16 of votes in the first round	2	$2.1K	2,070	0	+2,070	open	—	01-19 11:37
will andr ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	21	$2.0K	1,981	1,321	+660	open	—	01-18 16:17
will trump say affordability during wef address on january 21	65	$1.9K	2,199	2,727	-528	open	—	01-21 14:50
will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	131	$1.7K	9,485	0	+9,485	open	—	04-01 19:34
will trump say hockey during the 2026 state of the union address	21	$1.6K	1,924	23	+1,901	open	—	02-24 23:35
will trump say fake news during address to the nation	67	$1.6K	1,627	474	+1,153	open	—	04-01 17:47
will trump say iran during the white house easter egg roll	32	$1.3K	2,542	0	+2,542	open	—	04-06 14:46
will trump say oil gas gasoline at the nrcc dinner on march 25 143	17	$1.3K	1,502	45	+1,457	open	—	03-25 23:45
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Bret Baier interview?	39	$1.3K	2,955	67	+2,888	open	—	05-15 22:00
will olivia dean win best new artist at the 68th annual grammy awards	8	$1.2K	1,063	500	+563	open	—	02-01 23:04
will trump say alien during the 2026 state of the union address	12	$1.1K	1,426	0	+1,426	open	—	02-24 22:04
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the fii priority summit	28	$1.1K	2,470	0	+2,470	open	—	03-27 20:30
will there be 14 or more inches of snow in nyc this weekend	194	$1.0K	7,561	5,176	+2,384	open	—	01-26 16:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 16:02:22	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 goals viktor gyokeres gte1	Yes	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0x63f371…
06-30 16:02:11	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 goals kylian mbappe gte1	No	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x0b3f62…
06-30 16:01:55	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0x08865c…
06-30 16:01:22	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 btts	No	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0x332558…
06-30 16:01:10	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0x5fb045…
06-30 16:00:59	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	Sweden	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x27421d…
06-30 15:59:20	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 team to advance	Sweden	BUY	21	12¢	$3	0x5fdc74…
06-30 14:40:59	will the announcers say ronaldo during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343721	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x413f42…
06-30 13:29:34	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343712	No	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xf67a5b…
06-30 13:04:40	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 goals amad diallo gte1	Yes	BUY	42	16¢	$7	0xf1b940…
06-30 13:04:04	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts	No	BUY	42	42¢	$18	0xe08588…
06-30 13:03:58	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	42	50¢	$21	0x019d6f…
06-30 13:03:49	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 spread away 1pt5	Norway	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x2129dc…
06-30 09:47:10	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526259	No	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xa75de1…
06-29 21:07:59	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 goals ayoub el kaabi gte1	Yes	BUY	21	21¢	$4	0x791913…
06-29 21:07:49	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 goals brian brobbey gte1	Yes	BUY	21	26¢	$5	0xa8e4cd…
06-29 21:07:35	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0x8f98e4…
06-29 21:06:13	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 btts	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xd16a25…
06-29 21:06:04	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0xef9e9f…
06-29 21:05:44	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Netherlands	BUY	21	18¢	$4	0xd77f17…
06-29 21:03:05	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x6b11cb…
06-29 19:54:49	will the announcers say champion during netherlands vs morocco 20260628222742648	No	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x2b9c32…
06-29 19:54:43	will the announcers say champion during netherlands vs morocco 20260628222742648	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x83f2ef…
06-29 19:54:31	will the announcers say champion during netherlands vs morocco 20260628222742648	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xb16782…
06-29 19:54:26	will the announcers say champion during netherlands vs morocco 20260628222742648	No	BUY	14	32¢	$4	0xa1102c…
06-29 17:50:07	will the announcers say ronaldo during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841630	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xc2df76…
06-29 16:37:58	will the announcers say golden boot during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841625	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xd997ec…
06-29 16:35:34	will the announcers say golden boot during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841625	No	BUY	18	69¢	$12	0xb33afa…
06-29 16:04:11	will the announcers say maradona or pele during brazil vs japan 20260628222111476	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xc3c5df…
06-29 15:59:02	will the announcers say what a save during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841624	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xec7580…
06-29 15:59:02	will the announcers say what a save during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841624	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x350b5a…
06-29 15:58:49	will the announcers say what a save during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841624	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xddc6be…
06-29 15:56:56	will the announcers say ronaldo during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841630	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0xb870dd…
06-29 15:55:17	will the announcers say own goal during netherlands vs morocco 20260628222742646	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc92f73…
06-29 15:50:59	will the announcers say what a save during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841624	No	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0x777445…
06-29 15:46:40	will the announcers say own goal during netherlands vs morocco 20260628222742646	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x4c06ea…
06-29 15:39:16	will the announcers say own goal during netherlands vs morocco 20260628222742646	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$1	0xf13c46…
06-29 15:38:38	will the announcers say what a save during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841624	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x445358…
06-29 15:29:11	will the announcers say ronaldo during brazil vs japan 20260628222111478	No	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xe5488e…
06-29 15:25:47	will the announcers say messi during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841629	No	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xf1c84f…
06-29 15:25:31	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841627	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x96b002…
06-29 15:25:22	will the announcers say messi during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841629	No	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0x23ba6d…
06-29 15:25:08	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841627	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0xdc0d48…
06-29 15:24:49	will the announcers say messi during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841629	No	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0x0bef9c…
06-29 15:24:37	will the announcers say own goal during netherlands vs morocco 20260628222742646	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa9c02d…
06-29 15:24:32	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841627	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x164e3b…
06-29 14:19:11	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 goals julio cesar enciso gte1	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$3	0xd8fca4…
06-29 14:19:07	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 goals kai havertz gte1	Yes	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0x41547a…
06-29 14:18:52	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	21	44¢	$9	0xbab6c8…
06-29 14:18:10	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	21	57¢	$12	0xb8abb6…
06-29 14:18:07	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 btts	Yes	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0x8652a5…
06-29 14:17:56	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Paraguay	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x1413d6…
06-29 14:17:31	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	BUY	21	15¢	$3	0x943dd3…
06-29 14:12:44	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 goals ayase ueda gte1	Yes	BUY	42	18¢	$8	0xb5a90c…
06-29 14:12:14	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 goals ayase ueda gte1	No	SELL	42	82¢	$34	0x6be124…
06-29 14:10:55	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 goals ayase ueda gte1	No	BUY	42	83¢	$35	0x243816…
06-29 14:10:32	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 corners total 9pt5	Under	BUY	42	68¢	$29	0xe10ea4…
06-29 14:10:14	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts	No	BUY	42	49¢	$21	0x3b1484…
06-29 14:10:02	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Brazil	BUY	42	30¢	$13	0x9c3954…
06-28 18:31:23	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 goals evidence makgopa gte1	Yes	BUY	21	15¢	$3	0x736b79…
06-28 18:31:05	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 goals jonathan david gte1	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x56abff…
06-28 18:30:02	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 corners total 8pt5	Under	BUY	21	44¢	$9	0x3de530…
06-28 18:28:41	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	No	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x978849…
06-28 18:28:31	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0x774a45…
06-28 18:28:17	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 spread away 1pt5	Canada	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0x4a1cf4…
06-28 18:27:38	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	South Africa	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0x3fe510…
06-28 18:17:44	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the south africa vs canada fifa world cup match 20260626193058858	No	BUY	25	78¢	$20	0x86441a…
06-28 18:17:26	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the south africa vs canada fifa world cup match 20260626193058858	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xcac1e9…
06-28 18:16:46	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the south africa vs canada fifa world cup match 20260626193058858	No	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xea5415…
06-28 18:15:41	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the south africa vs canada fifa world cup match 20260626193058858	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xc3e1a1…
06-27 22:55:16	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 spread away 1pt5	Austria	BUY	42	9¢	$4	0x7c198e…
06-27 22:55:04	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	42	28¢	$12	0x3cf5ae…
06-27 22:46:38	fifwc col prt 2026 06 27 spread away 1pt5	Portugal	BUY	42	28¢	$12	0x4905ed…
06-27 22:46:19	fifwc col prt 2026 06 27 btts	No	BUY	42	39¢	$16	0x3f820c…
06-27 22:29:49	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716821	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$11	0x4c5e6d…
06-27 21:58:11	will the announcers say what a save during the jordan vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260625200914436	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x06db88…
06-27 21:38:35	will the announcers say crossbar during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716824	No	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xb0adb5…
06-27 19:26:37	will the announcers say qatar during the panama vs england fifa world cup match 20260625200511669	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xf1440d…
06-27 17:54:41	fifwc hrv gha 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	42	39¢	$16	0x9600d1…
06-27 17:54:01	fifwc hrv gha 2026 06 27 btts	Yes	BUY	42	45¢	$19	0xf4b106…
06-27 17:53:58	fifwc hrv gha 2026 06 27 spread home 1pt5	Croatia	BUY	42	28¢	$12	0xda9c7f…
06-27 17:43:58	fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	21	36¢	$8	0x751c19…
06-27 17:43:25	fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 btts	Yes	BUY	21	36¢	$8	0x2b9d4e…
06-27 17:43:20	fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 spread away 1pt5	Jordan	BUY	21	32¢	$7	0x0b9367…
06-27 17:42:07	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	21	32¢	$7	0xe89de0…
06-27 17:42:02	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 btts	Yes	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0xdcf0ec…
06-27 17:41:58	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 spread away 1pt5	Panama	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0x342a94…
06-27 15:16:29	will the announcers say what a save during the panama vs england fifa world cup match 20260625200511678	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x4e1c28…
06-27 15:08:49	will the announcers say handball during the panama vs england fifa world cup match 20260625200511670	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x7408a6…
06-27 13:57:07	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716829	Yes	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x0a0bf7…
06-27 13:17:38	will the announcers say qatar during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716816	Yes	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x2640aa…
06-27 12:12:44	will the announcers say crossbar during the jordan vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260625200914435	No	BUY	18	69¢	$12	0x52efaa…
06-27 11:49:43	will the announcers say handball during the panama vs england fifa world cup match 20260625200511670	No	BUY	17	55¢	$9	0xceccb4…
06-27 11:35:02	will the announcers say handball during the panama vs england fifa world cup match 20260625200511670	No	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0xb828fd…
06-27 10:56:23	fifwc cdr uzb 2026 06 27 btts	Yes	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0x37a851…
06-27 10:56:16	fifwc cdr uzb 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	21	45¢	$9	0x856a64…
06-27 10:56:10	fifwc cdr uzb 2026 06 27 spread home 1pt5	DR Congo	BUY	21	34¢	$7	0x59bb81…
06-27 10:47:01	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716827	No	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0xae565c…
06-27 10:08:20	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the panama vs england fifa world cup match 20260625200511682	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xdba3de…
06-27 09:50:50	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the panama vs england fifa world cup match 20260625200511682	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0xbffbc4…