Ill-Informed-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.39K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.4%

Resolved

1,638

Trades

5,904

lifetime

Volume

$252.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-08 14:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 159 days

Categories

Politics

48% 58% -$3,418

Other

32% 52% +$1,513

Sports

16% 62% +$4,766

Crypto

3% 71% +$1,269

Pop-Culture

1% 60% +$96

Tech

0% 82% +$166

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	116	$24.8K	20,469	7,349	+13,120	Yes	+$894	01-18 20:06
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 2025	51	$24.1K	12,138	12,138	+0	No	+$147	02-08 21:04
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	236	$15.1K	26,116	26,047	+69	Yes	+$32	01-28 11:24
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 50 and 52	51	$5.5K	3,368	4,070	-702	Yes	+$202	02-20 04:42
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	91	$5.0K	8,261	400	+7,861	Yes	+$1,061	05-18 20:19
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	No	+$5	03-31 21:42
will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	83	$4.4K	3,210	3,210	+0	No	-$67	04-01 21:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	42	$4.4K	5,147	7,147	-2,000	No	+$421	01-16 23:53
will there be 12 14 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	15	$3.6K	2,048	1,829	+219	No	+$136	01-26 18:21
will the 2026 state of the union address last 100 minutes or longer	31	$3.5K	4,262	2,323	+1,939	Yes	+$1,170	02-24 16:30
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 48 and 50	38	$3.5K	3,193	3,093	+100	No	+$323	02-15 20:07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	35	$3.4K	2,447	4,447	-2,000	Yes	-$731	01-16 15:46
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	31	$2.4K	2,844	2,844	+0	No	-$20	05-19 13:42
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	37	$2.4K	1,808	1,808	+0	No	+$783	05-19 13:10
will antnio jos seguro win the first round	4	$2.3K	2,287	0	+2,287	Yes	+$13	01-19 10:52
bitcoin above 72k on february 11	46	$2.2K	8,000	4,000	+4,000	No	+$485	02-08 23:05
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	18	$2.2K	2,360	0	+2,360	No	+$148	04-01 15:42
will lus marques mendes win less than 16 of votes in the first round	2	$2.1K	2,070	0	+2,070	Yes	+$6	01-19 11:37
will andr ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	21	$2.0K	1,981	1,321	+660	No	+$293	01-18 16:17
will trump say affordability during wef address on january 21	65	$1.9K	2,199	2,727	-528	No	-$576	01-21 14:50
will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	131	$1.7K	9,485	0	+9,485	Yes	-$1,736	04-01 19:34
will trump say hockey during the 2026 state of the union address	21	$1.6K	1,924	23	+1,901	Yes	+$304	02-24 23:35
will trump say fake news during address to the nation	67	$1.6K	1,627	474	+1,153	No	+$307	04-01 17:47
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Bret Baier interview?	40	$1.4K	3,155	67	+3,088	Yes	-$1,279	05-15 22:00
will trump say iran during the white house easter egg roll	32	$1.3K	2,542	0	+2,542	Yes	+$1,055	04-06 14:46
will trump say oil gas gasoline at the nrcc dinner on march 25 143	17	$1.3K	1,502	45	+1,457	Yes	+$204	03-25 23:45
will olivia dean win best new artist at the 68th annual grammy awards	8	$1.2K	1,063	500	+563	Yes	+$144	02-01 23:04
will trump say alien during the 2026 state of the union address	12	$1.1K	1,426	0	+1,426	Yes	+$299	02-24 22:04
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the fii priority summit	28	$1.1K	2,470	0	+2,470	Yes	+$694	03-27 20:30
will there be 14 or more inches of snow in nyc this weekend	194	$1.0K	7,561	5,176	+2,384	No	-$166	01-26 16:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-08 14:46:54	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention?	No	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x398309…
09-07 14:08:33	Will John Ternus say "Hardware" during his Apple Keynote?	Yes	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0xa92110…
09-06 07:36:33	Will JD Vance say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during RNC Convention?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xc0311f…
09-06 03:21:42	Will JD Vance say "2028" or "Campaign" during RNC Convention?	No	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0x95fa6f…
09-05 18:27:07	Will JD Vance say "China" or "Chinese" during RNC Convention?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xee3635…
09-05 15:30:31	Will JD Vance say "2028" or "Campaign" during RNC Convention?	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x6893d1…
09-04 20:53:18	will jd vance say ai during rnc convention	No	BUY	14	60¢	$8	0x0f0884…
09-04 14:51:30	Will JD Vance say "2028" or "Campaign" during RNC Convention?	No	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x045744…
09-04 13:24:00	Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during remarks at Steel Across America?	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x5abfa5…
09-04 13:11:54	Will Trump say "Democrat" during remarks at Steel Across America?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x76d49c…
09-04 13:11:01	Will Trump say "Democrat" during remarks at Steel Across America?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x20b8d1…
09-04 13:09:24	Will Trump say "Democrat" during remarks at Steel Across America?	No	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x10f404…
09-04 07:43:15	will jd vance say working class during rnc convention	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4cc446…
09-04 06:43:12	Will John Ternus say "Chip" during his Apple Keynote?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x18bebe…
09-04 06:05:07	Will John Ternus say "Chip" during his Apple Keynote?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xe902fc…
09-03 13:56:13	Will Lululemon say "Membership" during earnings call?	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x4b9de3…
09-03 12:47:10	Will John Ternus say "Chip" during his Apple Keynote?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xc8b4ca…
09-03 12:43:46	Will John Ternus say "Chip" during his Apple Keynote?	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x6c0fe4…
09-03 11:28:36	Will John Ternus say "Chip" during his Apple Keynote?	No	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0x0c39c0…
09-03 11:20:48	Will John Ternus say "Chip" during his Apple Keynote?	No	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0x39a3b8…
09-03 09:18:06	Will Lululemon say "Tariff" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xf2e951…
09-03 09:14:39	Will Lululemon say "Tariff" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xb010ee…
09-03 09:12:06	Will Lululemon say "Tariff" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x91a41d…
09-03 08:29:51	Will Lululemon say "Tariff" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x2f2724…
09-01 20:49:18	Will Dell say "Lightning" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0xab5f25…
09-01 20:47:15	Will Dell say "Lightning" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x633d63…
09-01 20:40:06	Will Dell say "Agentic" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xfd679f…
09-01 20:39:15	Will Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call?	No	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x5455f5…
09-01 20:22:27	Will Dell say "Confidence" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xcbffda…
09-01 20:18:24	Will Dell say "Tailwind" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x163378…
09-01 14:13:04	Will Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xcd070f…
09-01 14:12:39	Will Dell say "Agentic" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x889c98…
08-21 13:19:25	will jd vance say america first during his remarks in ohio	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x243211…
08-21 07:50:24	will trump say stock market during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x35f0fc…
08-21 00:43:12	will jd vance say inflation during his remarks in ohio	Yes	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0xb374ad…
08-21 00:39:09	will jd vance say inflation during his remarks in ohio	No	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0xa9a3fa…
08-20 22:24:27	will jd vance say oil gas gasoline during his remarks in ohio	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x93d588…
08-20 21:19:30	will jd vance say afford affordable affordability during his remarks in ohio	No	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x4b7fba…
08-20 21:19:28	will jd vance say afford affordable affordability during his remarks in ohio	No	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x3836bb…
08-20 13:04:07	will warsh say gold during jackson hole speech on august 28	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x2fb5ca…
08-20 10:30:49	will trump say maga make america great again during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xd66a9d…
08-20 10:28:34	will trump say afford affordable affordability during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x2b3920…
08-20 10:28:30	will trump say maga make america great again during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xde0549…
08-20 10:24:49	will trump say afford affordable affordability during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x524024…
08-20 10:22:28	will trump say afford affordable affordability during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xd40181…
08-20 10:18:57	will trump say maga make america great again during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0xb001b1…
08-20 10:00:52	will trump say transgender during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xb2e793…
08-20 09:22:07	will jd vance say america first during his remarks in ohio	No	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0xf76d4d…
08-19 06:42:16	will walmart say competition or competitor during earnings call 20260820	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$2	0xb9b7a6…
08-18 19:47:57	will target say revenue during earnings call 20260819	No	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0xe6c39a…
08-18 17:18:30	will warsh say 2008 or financial crisis during jackson hole speech on august 28	No	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x8be267…
08-18 15:58:46	will target say inflation during earnings call 20260819	No	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x5f16d7…
08-18 12:18:45	will home depot say storm during earnings call	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x9a5511…
08-18 12:13:33	will klarna say southwest airlines during earnings call	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xbaf919…
08-18 12:09:57	will klarna say walmart during earnings call	No	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0xa8fbdf…
08-18 12:01:33	will klarna say southwest airlines during earnings call	Yes	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0xd5c273…
08-18 11:59:37	will klarna say sweden during earnings call	Yes	BUY	27	27¢	$7	0x7edf18…
08-18 11:39:10	will klarna say southwest airlines during earnings call	Yes	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x159986…
08-18 10:41:22	will klarna say southwest airlines during earnings call	No	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0xaf8010…
08-18 10:40:55	will klarna say walmart during earnings call	No	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x29e4ca…
08-18 10:20:24	will home depot say volatility during earnings call	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x31535e…
08-18 10:16:36	will home depot say revenue during earnings call	No	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0x6191f0…
08-18 10:16:15	will home depot say volatility during earnings call	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xa8c0a5…
08-18 09:40:48	will home depot say volatility during earnings call	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x434a14…
08-18 08:14:30	will klarna say southwest airlines during earnings call	No	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x2a3277…
08-18 08:14:21	will klarna say southwest airlines during earnings call	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x5dc369…
08-18 08:06:18	will klarna say walmart during earnings call	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xf1484b…
08-18 08:05:42	will klarna say banking license during earnings call	No	BUY	27	31¢	$8	0x73bf35…
08-18 08:04:55	will klarna say profitability during earnings call	No	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xed1ada…
08-18 07:09:46	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	24	25¢	$6	0x06ebd5…
08-18 07:09:33	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	55	27¢	$15	0x6e480a…
08-18 07:09:19	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0xb9febe…
08-18 07:07:04	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0xbf8ffd…
08-18 07:06:34	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xb676f4…
08-18 07:06:30	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x4e9573…
08-18 07:05:33	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x12568e…
08-18 07:05:31	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0xf8af88…
08-18 05:27:28	will klarna say profitability during earnings call	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xe69854…
08-18 05:16:55	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0x1968d7…
08-18 02:58:57	will klarna say walmart during earnings call	No	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x3b2679…
08-18 02:58:40	will klarna say walmart during earnings call	No	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0x290880…
08-17 21:12:13	will home depot say innovation during earnings call	No	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x8abf74…
08-17 18:45:21	will home depot say revenue during earnings call	No	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x7538be…
08-17 18:44:55	will home depot say revenue during earnings call	No	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0xf8f07f…
08-17 18:44:40	will home depot say revenue during earnings call	No	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0x4bf273…
08-17 18:00:24	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x4bb63f…
08-17 17:53:33	will klarna say ai or artificial intelligence during earnings call	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x9a0f8e…
08-17 17:17:45	will home depot say revenue during earnings call	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xe685ba…
08-17 17:17:21	will home depot say lumber during earnings call	No	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xbb6cd1…
08-17 17:17:00	will home depot say weather during earnings call	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xa195c5…
08-17 17:14:54	will klarna say profitability during earnings call	No	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xd76509…
08-17 17:14:07	will klarna say delinquency during earnings call	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0xfbd636…
08-17 16:46:25	will klarna say sweden during earnings call	No	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0x3c908f…
08-17 16:35:51	will home depot say revenue during earnings call	No	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0x3882de…
08-14 17:32:36	will anyone say spacex during nasa news conference 20260812230553171	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xd742a7…
08-14 15:27:52	will anyone say ai or artificial intelligence during nasa news conference 20260812230553166	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x25a182…
08-14 14:45:55	will anyone say artemis during nasa news conference 20260812230553169	No	BUY	25	10¢	$3	0xb5ad40…
08-14 09:00:15	will anyone say artemis during nasa news conference 20260812230553169	No	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x22685c…
08-14 02:47:58	will trump say maga or make america great again during remarks in new york 20260811183234692	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x1f3a9f…
08-14 02:41:42	will anyone say space force during nasa news conference 20260812230553168	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x7ca665…