Ill-Informed-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.63K

Unrealized P&L

+$99

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved

Trades

4,038

lifetime

Volume

$221.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$495

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 23:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

54% 83% +$1,480

Other

27% 50% $-139

Sports

15% 100% +$288

Crypto

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 337 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	No	+550	$355	82¢	$451	+$95	06-09 18:52
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+200	$40	22¢	$43	+$3	06-02 08:32
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No	+2	$1	52¢	$1	+$0	06-09 10:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	116	$24.8K	20,469	7,349	+13,120	open	—	01-18 20:06
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 2025	51	$24.1K	12,138	12,138	+0	open	—	02-08 21:04
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	236	$15.1K	26,116	26,047	+69	open	—	01-28 11:24
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 50 and 52	51	$5.5K	3,368	4,070	-702	open	—	02-20 04:42
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	03-31 21:42
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	89	$4.9K	8,001	400	+7,601	open	—	05-18 20:19
will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	83	$4.4K	3,210	3,210	+0	open	—	04-01 21:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	42	$4.4K	5,147	7,147	-2,000	open	—	01-16 23:53
will there be 12 14 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	15	$3.6K	2,048	1,829	+219	open	—	01-26 18:21
will the 2026 state of the union address last 100 minutes or longer	31	$3.5K	4,262	2,323	+1,939	open	—	02-24 16:30
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 48 and 50	38	$3.5K	3,193	3,093	+100	open	—	02-15 20:07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	35	$3.4K	2,447	4,447	-2,000	open	—	01-16 15:46
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	30	$2.4K	2,659	2,844	-185	open	—	05-19 13:42
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	37	$2.4K	1,808	1,808	+0	open	—	05-19 13:10
will antnio jos seguro win the first round	4	$2.3K	2,287	0	+2,287	open	—	01-19 10:52
bitcoin above 72k on february 11	46	$2.2K	8,000	4,000	+4,000	open	—	02-08 23:05
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	18	$2.2K	2,360	0	+2,360	open	—	04-01 15:42
will lus marques mendes win less than 16 of votes in the first round	2	$2.1K	2,070	0	+2,070	open	—	01-19 11:37
will andr ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	21	$2.0K	1,981	1,321	+660	open	—	01-18 16:17
will trump say affordability during wef address on january 21	65	$1.9K	2,199	2,727	-528	open	—	01-21 14:50
will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	131	$1.7K	9,485	0	+9,485	open	—	04-01 19:34
will trump say hockey during the 2026 state of the union address	21	$1.6K	1,924	23	+1,901	open	—	02-24 23:35
will trump say fake news during address to the nation	67	$1.6K	1,627	474	+1,153	open	—	04-01 17:47
will trump say iran during the white house easter egg roll	32	$1.3K	2,542	0	+2,542	open	—	04-06 14:46
will trump say oil gas gasoline at the nrcc dinner on march 25 143	17	$1.3K	1,502	45	+1,457	open	—	03-25 23:45
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Bret Baier interview?	39	$1.3K	2,955	67	+2,888	open	—	05-15 22:00
will olivia dean win best new artist at the 68th annual grammy awards	8	$1.2K	1,063	500	+563	open	—	02-01 23:04
will trump say alien during the 2026 state of the union address	12	$1.1K	1,426	0	+1,426	open	—	02-24 22:04
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the fii priority summit	28	$1.1K	2,470	0	+2,470	open	—	03-27 20:30
will there be 14 or more inches of snow in nyc this weekend	194	$1.0K	7,561	5,176	+2,384	open	—	01-26 16:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 02:41:19	will warsh say trump during june press conference 20260608181156650	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x4eac70…
06-09 23:52:06	will warsh say good afternoon during june press conference 20260608181156653	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x6c5a22…
06-09 20:19:31	will saudi arabia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120765	No	BUY	143	86¢	$123	0xce645e…
06-09 20:16:42	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	No	BUY	44	81¢	$36	0xb58c06…
06-09 18:52:43	Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0xa1d650…
06-09 18:52:04	Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	No	BUY	23	57¢	$13	0xcb3e2b…
06-09 18:52:00	Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	No	BUY	24	57¢	$14	0xc3ec25…
06-09 18:52:00	Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x96a0ab…
06-09 18:52:00	Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x6a03c9…
06-09 18:50:52	Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x303855…
06-09 18:41:13	will norway reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120769	No	BUY	42	46¢	$19	0x7a5a7e…
06-09 18:00:49	will norway reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120769	No	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0x6f6627…
06-09 14:24:49	will warsh say trump during june press conference 20260608181156650	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x53adcf…
06-09 12:15:15	will warsh say trump during june press conference 20260608181156650	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x237188…
06-09 10:50:58	Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x17776a…
06-09 08:51:30	will saudi arabia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120765	No	BUY	28	86¢	$24	0xc2a420…
06-09 04:33:55	will saudi arabia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134497	No	BUY	165	90¢	$148	0x6ae37b…
06-09 04:33:30	will ecuador reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134484	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x2915e9…
06-08 21:26:19	will trump say knicks during tele rally 20260608165428969	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x81caac…
06-08 21:26:09	will trump say knicks during tele rally 20260608165428969	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xcedec3…
06-08 21:03:15	will trump say knicks during tele rally 20260608165428969	No	BUY	55	79¢	$43	0xaec966…
06-08 19:23:39	will england reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120779	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x168eb0…
06-08 06:26:43	will colombia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134508	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x5ad20d…
06-07 05:40:45	will senegal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134500	No	BUY	23	81¢	$19	0x9058a3…
06-07 00:29:37	will norway reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120769	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x243aef…
06-06 21:20:43	will ecuador reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134484	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0xdb1d20…
06-05 23:19:00	will new zealand reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120762	No	BUY	21	84¢	$18	0x7a95bc…
06-05 23:18:24	will uzbekistan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120777	No	BUY	92	88¢	$81	0xcd302c…
06-05 23:17:13	will qatar reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120741	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x34b5af…
06-05 23:13:39	will south africa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120737	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xd7be55…
06-05 11:54:07	will trump say big beautiful bill during wisconsin events 20260602174202012	Yes	BUY	59	83¢	$49	0x4d0c31…
06-05 04:52:37	will england reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120779	No	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x083abd…
06-05 03:19:54	will trump say big beautiful bill during wisconsin events 20260602174202012	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x2c9c02…
06-04 21:34:52	will trump say corn during wisconsin events 20260602174202005	Yes	BUY	197	56¢	$111	0x42ff72…
06-04 19:14:34	will south africa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120737	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x31a2b0…
06-04 18:35:36	will morocco reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134476	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x70b6f2…
06-04 17:36:07	will usa reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134479	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xb9a01b…
06-04 15:39:40	will morocco reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120744	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0xc12eab…
06-04 06:57:49	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xf7c330…
06-04 06:57:19	will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	Yes	BUY	16	41¢	$6	0x34b486…
06-04 06:19:52	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x89ae2c…
06-04 01:00:49	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	142	46¢	$65	0xf29353…
06-04 00:29:18	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0xceb256…
06-03 22:21:31	will trump say egg during wisconsin events 20260602174202014	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x0f5a9e…
06-03 20:59:28	will trump say soybean during wisconsin events 20260602174202015	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xdc6ad5…
06-03 19:41:49	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xb02f32…
06-03 16:27:42	Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x9c968a…
06-03 07:38:22	Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	68	55¢	$38	0xe21520…
06-03 05:18:52	will brazil reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134475	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0xcdebff…
06-03 01:42:29	Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0xc0ddd5…
06-02 23:01:43	Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x341a07…
06-02 23:01:29	will belgium reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134491	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x824c22…
06-02 22:59:14	Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x65c78f…
06-02 22:04:36	Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	110	64¢	$71	0x882651…
06-02 21:36:05	Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x27f499…
06-02 21:19:01	Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xe2c38f…
06-02 21:18:14	Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x31276c…
06-02 08:32:45	Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x480e59…
05-29 13:41:16	Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	517	1¢	$4	0x89d8b5…
05-29 13:36:48	Will Carlos Soler be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	43	1¢	$0	0x8eac7c…
05-28 13:27:15	Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x55a23f…
05-28 12:29:53	Will Vance say "Nuclear" during Air Force Academy Address?	Yes	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0xc403ef…
05-28 05:44:17	Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Academy Address?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x605a38…
05-27 14:18:39	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x8aa638…
05-27 14:03:59	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	70	85¢	$60	0x706a95…
05-27 13:34:58	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	43	82¢	$35	0x7d6721…
05-27 13:01:09	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0xb01fc6…
05-27 12:09:53	Will Trump say "Fraud" during Cabinet meeting?	Yes	BUY	71	73¢	$52	0x07da9f…
05-27 11:30:04	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x79771d…
05-26 22:55:56	Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x08aa28…
05-26 22:39:42	Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	4	68¢	$2	0x1e034b…
05-25 22:15:22	Will Bernie say "Bernie" during Fighting Oligarchy?	Yes	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x7ed7c5…
05-25 21:50:12	Will Bernie say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during Fighting Oligarchy?	Yes	BUY	16	78¢	$13	0xb65c53…
05-25 21:45:07	Will Bernie say "Data Center" during Fighting Oligarchy?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x47b5ff…
05-25 21:29:10	will bernie say ballroom during fighting oligarchy	No	BUY	58	87¢	$51	0x306ec1…
05-25 21:24:18	Will Bernie say "China" or "Chinese" during Fighting Oligarchy?	No	BUY	34	71¢	$24	0xeab3cc…
05-25 21:22:45	will bernie say netanyahu during fighting oligarchy	No	BUY	93	57¢	$53	0x85cbb9…
05-25 21:06:20	Will Bernie say "China" or "Chinese" during Fighting Oligarchy?	No	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0x3ac67d…
05-25 10:51:40	Will Pablo Fornals be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x7aaefd…
05-25 10:51:40	Will Pablo Fornals be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	91	2¢	$2	0x264978…
05-25 10:49:59	Will Pablo Fornals be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	SELL	536	98¢	$525	0x56affd…
05-25 10:44:40	Will Cristhian Mosquera be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0xac37dd…
05-25 10:43:23	Will Cristhian Mosquera be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	SELL	260	99¢	$258	0xd79f96…
05-25 10:43:06	Will Cristhian Mosquera be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	291	90¢	$263	0x095020…
05-24 21:26:44	Will Bernie say "Climate" in Maine?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xa45573…
05-24 20:56:57	Will Jarrod Bowen be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xae60fb…
05-24 20:55:08	Will Marcos Llorente be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	28	26¢	$7	0x9c146c…
05-24 18:56:14	Will Bernie say "Climate" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x800c33…
05-24 18:16:51	Will Marcos Llorente be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	55	10¢	$5	0xea3114…
05-24 15:02:10	Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xc50f90…
05-24 13:22:42	Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	93	6¢	$5	0xfa0f50…
05-24 11:10:16	Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$3	0xebde20…
05-24 09:13:43	Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x20a76a…
05-24 09:05:26	Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xdf63f0…
05-23 23:31:29	Will Dean Huijsen be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	182	12¢	$22	0x673957…
05-23 21:02:07	Will Pablo Fornals be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	98	39¢	$38	0x67d9c2…
05-23 17:04:53	Will Marcos Llorente be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xa57f11…
05-23 17:04:53	Will Marcos Llorente be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x2add84…
05-23 13:24:18	Will Bernie say "Climate" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	58	30¢	$18	0x2a7c6c…
05-23 04:51:54	Will Bernie say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" in Maine?	No	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x33f5d7…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	211	$35.7K	4,113	06-09 19:03
Satisfied-Receipt 0xac16…4f44	185	$38.4K	671	05-28 14:13
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	178	$119.0K	11,131	05-01 10:42
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	176	$5.65M	8,313	06-08 23:50
Entire-Hood 0xb40e…7cc9	176	$73.1K	5,469	05-27 16:05
Prize-Obi 0x2375…691f	172	$50.1K	2,443	06-09 11:37
(anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8	172	$11.7K	715	06-05 21:05
Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1	168	$232.4K	4,083	06-10 03:35