Ill-Informed-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.63K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved

Trades

5,214

lifetime

Volume

$238.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 00:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

51% 83% +$1,480

Other

28% 50% $-139

Sports

17% 100% +$288

Crypto

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 119 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	116	$24.8K	20,469	7,349	+13,120	open	—	01-18 20:06
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 2025	51	$24.1K	12,138	12,138	+0	open	—	02-08 21:04
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	236	$15.1K	26,116	26,047	+69	open	—	01-28 11:24
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 50 and 52	51	$5.5K	3,368	4,070	-702	open	—	02-20 04:42
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	03-31 21:42
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	89	$4.9K	8,001	400	+7,601	open	—	05-18 20:19
will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	83	$4.4K	3,210	3,210	+0	open	—	04-01 21:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	42	$4.4K	5,147	7,147	-2,000	open	—	01-16 23:53
will there be 12 14 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	15	$3.6K	2,048	1,829	+219	open	—	01-26 18:21
will the 2026 state of the union address last 100 minutes or longer	31	$3.5K	4,262	2,323	+1,939	open	—	02-24 16:30
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 48 and 50	38	$3.5K	3,193	3,093	+100	open	—	02-15 20:07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	35	$3.4K	2,447	4,447	-2,000	open	—	01-16 15:46
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	30	$2.4K	2,659	2,844	-185	open	—	05-19 13:42
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	37	$2.4K	1,808	1,808	+0	open	—	05-19 13:10
will antnio jos seguro win the first round	4	$2.3K	2,287	0	+2,287	open	—	01-19 10:52
bitcoin above 72k on february 11	46	$2.2K	8,000	4,000	+4,000	open	—	02-08 23:05
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	18	$2.2K	2,360	0	+2,360	open	—	04-01 15:42
will lus marques mendes win less than 16 of votes in the first round	2	$2.1K	2,070	0	+2,070	open	—	01-19 11:37
will andr ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	21	$2.0K	1,981	1,321	+660	open	—	01-18 16:17
will trump say affordability during wef address on january 21	65	$1.9K	2,199	2,727	-528	open	—	01-21 14:50
will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	131	$1.7K	9,485	0	+9,485	open	—	04-01 19:34
will trump say hockey during the 2026 state of the union address	21	$1.6K	1,924	23	+1,901	open	—	02-24 23:35
will trump say fake news during address to the nation	67	$1.6K	1,627	474	+1,153	open	—	04-01 17:47
will trump say iran during the white house easter egg roll	32	$1.3K	2,542	0	+2,542	open	—	04-06 14:46
will trump say oil gas gasoline at the nrcc dinner on march 25 143	17	$1.3K	1,502	45	+1,457	open	—	03-25 23:45
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Bret Baier interview?	39	$1.3K	2,955	67	+2,888	open	—	05-15 22:00
will olivia dean win best new artist at the 68th annual grammy awards	8	$1.2K	1,063	500	+563	open	—	02-01 23:04
will trump say alien during the 2026 state of the union address	12	$1.1K	1,426	0	+1,426	open	—	02-24 22:04
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the fii priority summit	28	$1.1K	2,470	0	+2,470	open	—	03-27 20:30
will there be 14 or more inches of snow in nyc this weekend	194	$1.0K	7,561	5,176	+2,384	open	—	01-26 16:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 10:16:57	will trump say communist or communism during tele rally 20260809153916665	No	BUY	19	46¢	$9	0x27df9c…
08-10 10:16:51	will trump say communist or communism during tele rally 20260809153916665	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x95888e…
08-10 10:16:36	will trump say communist or communism during tele rally 20260809153916665	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa03d56…
08-10 10:16:34	will trump say communist or communism during tele rally 20260809153916665	No	BUY	3	46¢	$2	0xf8e582…
08-10 10:16:34	will trump say communist or communism during tele rally 20260809153916665	No	BUY	25	46¢	$11	0x140d3d…
08-10 07:33:49	will trump say communist or communism during tele rally 20260809153916665	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x24d057…
08-10 07:29:01	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	75	75¢	$56	0x1dacd1…
08-10 07:27:37	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0xb8a65a…
08-10 07:27:36	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0x5e0be5…
08-10 07:26:58	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0xeeb4ee…
08-10 07:26:57	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0x4e8ce2…
08-10 07:25:25	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	95	74¢	$70	0x5b067d…
08-10 07:23:01	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0x0aa868…
08-10 07:22:34	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0x626660…
08-10 07:22:01	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0x0f9bda…
08-10 07:22:00	will hims say amazon during earnings call 20260807205625287	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0xbbc597…
08-10 00:17:42	will hims say wearable during earnings call 20260807205625285	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0xc12667…
08-09 12:21:31	will hims say europe during earnings call 20260807205625286	No	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x7540d4…
08-09 05:04:52	will hims say europe during earnings call 20260807205625286	No	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x99b3f0…
08-09 04:34:30	will hims say europe during earnings call 20260807205625286	No	BUY	13	44¢	$6	0xa07479…
08-09 02:05:16	will hims say regulation during earnings call 20260807205625288	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xefbacd…
08-08 09:55:45	will cava say shrimp during earnings call 20260807205722559	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x169ba0…
08-08 08:25:21	will cava say tariff during earnings call 20260807205722562	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x1d06d5…
08-07 18:21:01	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0x5bafeb…
08-07 18:13:12	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	Yes	BUY	18	71¢	$13	0xc66d8a…
08-07 18:01:00	will trump say alaska during friday roundtable 20260805211427274	Yes	BUY	27	42¢	$11	0x2aed46…
08-07 16:55:46	will trump say magnet during friday roundtable 20260805211427280	No	BUY	28	47¢	$13	0x4cd9aa…
08-07 16:53:25	will trump say magnet during friday roundtable 20260805211427280	No	BUY	30	45¢	$13	0x07e666…
08-07 16:45:31	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0x6bd39f…
08-07 16:39:04	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x16e6a0…
08-07 16:28:46	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	No	BUY	14	45¢	$6	0x77a47f…
08-07 16:28:07	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	No	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x87feae…
08-07 16:27:52	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	No	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0xfae4f9…
08-07 16:27:27	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	No	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0xd5316d…
08-07 16:12:04	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x136d23…
08-07 16:05:18	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x8f3c82…
08-07 15:59:09	will trump say magnet during friday roundtable 20260805211427280	No	BUY	11	33¢	$4	0x5c6377…
08-07 15:53:42	will trump say magnet during friday roundtable 20260805211427280	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xe0e668…
08-07 15:53:42	will trump say magnet during friday roundtable 20260805211427280	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xa1e8e9…
08-07 15:53:42	will trump say magnet during friday roundtable 20260805211427280	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x545054…
08-07 15:44:16	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	27	26¢	$7	0x4794bd…
08-07 15:43:27	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during friday roundtable 20260805211427284	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xd0117e…
08-07 15:31:52	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x38e6d6…
08-07 15:31:28	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x86fc4e…
08-07 15:31:27	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xcc0e08…
08-07 15:18:04	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xb26cd3…
08-07 15:17:25	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x3e70bb…
08-07 15:16:15	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during friday roundtable 20260805211427284	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x15190d…
08-07 15:09:51	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during friday roundtable 20260805211427284	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa5955c…
08-07 15:09:51	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during friday roundtable 20260805211427284	No	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x70af70…
08-07 15:06:58	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x2d3a65…
08-07 15:05:40	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during friday roundtable 20260805211427284	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xe949f4…
08-07 15:02:57	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	BUY	21	55¢	$12	0x8ca0fb…
08-07 15:02:12	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during friday roundtable 20260805211427284	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa5e659…
08-07 14:58:46	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0x9900a8…
08-07 14:58:45	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x952e9a…
08-07 14:58:45	will trump say copper during friday roundtable 20260807001205003	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x8d347a…
08-07 14:52:34	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x528263…
08-07 14:47:57	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0x48602f…
08-07 14:45:46	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x2e32fc…
08-07 14:45:09	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x5f02d2…
08-06 21:54:11	will trump say save america act during tele rally 20260806153758778	No	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xa893cf…
08-06 21:06:15	will trump say maga or make america great again during tele rally 20260806153758780	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x78fb6f…
08-06 21:03:30	will trump say hottest during tele rally 20260806153758784	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x081f57…
08-06 21:01:11	will trump say save america act during tele rally 20260806153758778	Yes	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0xb21dd9…
08-05 13:24:08	will disney say fortnite during earnings call 20260803163137851 849	Yes	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0xcb92b5…
08-05 07:05:18	will disney say epic universe during earnings call 20260803163137852 136	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x41b3c1…
08-05 04:30:33	will airbnb say international during earnings call 20260803163357339	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x499d7e…
08-05 00:18:20	will uber say market share during earnings call 20260803163025077	No	BUY	1	81¢	$0	0x3dabe2…
08-05 00:18:02	will uber say market share during earnings call 20260803163025077	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x1069c2…
08-04 23:55:35	will uber say market share during earnings call 20260803163025077	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x57db97…
08-04 23:19:12	will uber say nvidia during earnings call 20260803163025073	No	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0x7175d4…
08-04 22:36:14	will uber say nvidia during earnings call 20260803163025073	No	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x91be00…
08-04 19:18:14	will uber say expansion during earnings call 20260803163025071	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x094c13…
08-04 17:58:14	will spacex say trump during earnings call 20260730164309244	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x02be54…
08-04 17:22:50	will spacex say iss or international space station during earnings call 20260730164309241	No	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0x73d078…
08-04 16:02:09	will spacex say trump during earnings call 20260730164309244	No	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x8c4551…
08-04 16:01:50	will spacex say trump during earnings call 20260730164309244	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x65ff0f…
08-04 15:53:02	will spacex say weather during earnings call 20260730164309243	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xa119df…
08-04 15:15:53	will spacex say tesla during earnings call 20260730164309242	No	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x492558…
08-04 15:15:17	will spacex say tesla during earnings call 20260730164309242	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xb6abd3…
08-04 15:13:42	will disney say box office during earnings call 20260803163137844 417	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x82d2bd…
08-04 15:12:18	will spacex say tesla during earnings call 20260730164309242	No	BUY	14	42¢	$6	0x8e5445…
08-04 15:08:30	will disney say box office during earnings call 20260803163137844 417	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x9b2f17…
08-04 14:58:53	will disney say box office during earnings call 20260803163137844 417	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x54c60d…
08-04 14:48:50	will amd say meta during earnings call 20260730164425709	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x578edf…
08-04 14:47:36	will amd say oracle during earnings call 20260730164425712	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x980d5d…
08-04 14:41:09	will spacex say tesla during earnings call 20260730164309242	No	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x843678…
08-04 12:56:57	will disney say toy story 5 during earnings call 20260803163137849 527	Yes	BUY	28	76¢	$21	0x1541f1…
08-04 12:47:02	will disney say toy story 5 during earnings call 20260803163137849 527	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x729cbb…
08-04 12:36:06	will disney say toy story 5 during earnings call 20260803163137849 527	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x6eb4b9…
08-04 12:35:21	will spacex say trump during earnings call 20260730164309244	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x170326…
08-04 11:04:32	will amd say tsmc during earnings call 20260730164425713	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0xc4a0df…
08-04 08:14:47	will amd say oracle during earnings call 20260730164425712	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xbf3454…
08-04 07:08:26	will spotify say award during earnings call 20260730163821628	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x80dc36…
08-04 05:18:42	will spotify say monetization during earnings call 20260730163821626	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xd1620b…
08-03 22:43:32	will spacex say cursor during earnings call 20260730164309238	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x7fe50a…
08-03 21:12:39	will spacex say weather during earnings call 20260730164309243	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xc24ef2…
08-03 20:17:51	will spacex say weather during earnings call 20260730164309243	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x6e09b1…
08-03 20:09:20	will spacex say tesla during earnings call 20260730164309242	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0xe725cb…