Ill-Informed-Trolley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.63K

Unrealized P&L

+$173

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved

Trades

5,035

lifetime

Volume

$236.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

$1.03K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 14:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

51% 83% +$1,480

Other

28% 50% $-139

Sports

17% 100% +$288

Crypto

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 155 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?	No	+550	$355	92¢	$506	+$150	06-09 18:52
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?	No	+476	$410	92¢	$436	+$26	06-13 12:25
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Yes	+200	$58	26¢	$52	$-6	06-11 20:54
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No	+70	$37	56¢	$39	+$2	06-12 03:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	116	$24.8K	20,469	7,349	+13,120	open	—	01-18 20:06
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 2025	51	$24.1K	12,138	12,138	+0	open	—	02-08 21:04
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	236	$15.1K	26,116	26,047	+69	open	—	01-28 11:24
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 50 and 52	51	$5.5K	3,368	4,070	-702	open	—	02-20 04:42
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	03-31 21:42
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	89	$4.9K	8,001	400	+7,601	open	—	05-18 20:19
will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	83	$4.4K	3,210	3,210	+0	open	—	04-01 21:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	42	$4.4K	5,147	7,147	-2,000	open	—	01-16 23:53
will there be 12 14 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	15	$3.6K	2,048	1,829	+219	open	—	01-26 18:21
will the 2026 state of the union address last 100 minutes or longer	31	$3.5K	4,262	2,323	+1,939	open	—	02-24 16:30
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 48 and 50	38	$3.5K	3,193	3,093	+100	open	—	02-15 20:07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	35	$3.4K	2,447	4,447	-2,000	open	—	01-16 15:46
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	30	$2.4K	2,659	2,844	-185	open	—	05-19 13:42
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	37	$2.4K	1,808	1,808	+0	open	—	05-19 13:10
will antnio jos seguro win the first round	4	$2.3K	2,287	0	+2,287	open	—	01-19 10:52
bitcoin above 72k on february 11	46	$2.2K	8,000	4,000	+4,000	open	—	02-08 23:05
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	18	$2.2K	2,360	0	+2,360	open	—	04-01 15:42
will lus marques mendes win less than 16 of votes in the first round	2	$2.1K	2,070	0	+2,070	open	—	01-19 11:37
will andr ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	21	$2.0K	1,981	1,321	+660	open	—	01-18 16:17
will trump say affordability during wef address on january 21	65	$1.9K	2,199	2,727	-528	open	—	01-21 14:50
will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	131	$1.7K	9,485	0	+9,485	open	—	04-01 19:34
will trump say hockey during the 2026 state of the union address	21	$1.6K	1,924	23	+1,901	open	—	02-24 23:35
will trump say fake news during address to the nation	67	$1.6K	1,627	474	+1,153	open	—	04-01 17:47
will trump say iran during the white house easter egg roll	32	$1.3K	2,542	0	+2,542	open	—	04-06 14:46
will trump say oil gas gasoline at the nrcc dinner on march 25 143	17	$1.3K	1,502	45	+1,457	open	—	03-25 23:45
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Bret Baier interview?	39	$1.3K	2,955	67	+2,888	open	—	05-15 22:00
will olivia dean win best new artist at the 68th annual grammy awards	8	$1.2K	1,063	500	+563	open	—	02-01 23:04
will trump say alien during the 2026 state of the union address	12	$1.1K	1,426	0	+1,426	open	—	02-24 22:04
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the fii priority summit	28	$1.1K	2,470	0	+2,470	open	—	03-27 20:30
will there be 14 or more inches of snow in nyc this weekend	194	$1.0K	7,561	5,176	+2,384	open	—	01-26 16:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 14:27:42	will bernie say oil gas or gasoline during minneapolis rally 20260719004357854	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0xdb19f9…
07-20 12:42:40	will bernie say socialist or socialism during minneapolis rally 20260719004357862	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x6569ec…
07-20 12:41:49	will bernie say socialist or socialism during minneapolis rally 20260719004357862	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xc692c7…
07-20 11:51:13	will bernie say climate during minneapolis rally 20260719004357858	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xda36d4…
07-20 11:07:57	will bernie say data center during minneapolis rally 20260719004357863	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x6ad235…
07-20 11:01:21	will bernie say data center during minneapolis rally 20260719004357863	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x10c6bc…
07-20 10:54:45	will bernie say trump 5 times during minneapolis rally 20260719004357847	No	BUY	49	55¢	$27	0xceb7aa…
07-20 10:31:00	will bernie say trump 5 times during minneapolis rally 20260719004357847	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0xb0a0ba…
07-20 09:33:37	will bernie say supreme court during minneapolis rally 20260719004357857	No	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x3f538d…
07-20 09:17:27	will bernie say endorse endorsed or endorsement during minneapolis rally 20260719004357864	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xb872d7…
07-20 09:16:30	will bernie say endorse endorsed or endorsement during minneapolis rally 20260719004357864	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xe3917f…
07-20 09:16:30	will bernie say endorse endorsed or endorsement during minneapolis rally 20260719004357864	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x089b71…
07-20 08:23:36	will bernie say trump 5 times during minneapolis rally 20260719004357847	No	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x92b251…
07-20 08:22:37	will bernie say trump 5 times during minneapolis rally 20260719004357847	No	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x652166…
07-19 18:38:19	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	SELL	15	63¢	$9	0x839692…
07-19 17:27:51	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403316	Yes	BUY	22	73¢	$16	0x7548ab…
07-19 17:20:33	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403316	Yes	BUY	37	73¢	$27	0x6ac080…
07-19 17:13:19	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x1eb386…
07-19 16:51:21	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	SELL	30	69¢	$21	0xf46835…
07-19 16:39:10	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403316	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$0	0xffd8ea…
07-19 16:31:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 shots mikel oyarzabal gte2	No	BUY	42	37¢	$16	0x478333…
07-19 16:30:42	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 shots mikel oyarzabal gte2	Yes	SELL	42	63¢	$26	0xa24344…
07-19 16:28:21	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 shots mikel oyarzabal gte2	Yes	BUY	42	66¢	$28	0x18fc48…
07-19 16:28:04	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 shots julian alvarez gte2	Yes	BUY	42	49¢	$21	0xfd62a8…
07-19 16:26:21	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 assists enzo fernandez gte1	Yes	BUY	42	8¢	$3	0x9eca1e…
07-19 16:26:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 assists dani olmo gte1	Yes	BUY	42	14¢	$6	0xfd2837…
07-19 16:26:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 assists lamine yamal gte1	Yes	BUY	42	22¢	$9	0x56d9da…
07-19 16:25:39	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 assists lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	42	28¢	$12	0x05f070…
07-19 16:25:01	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals julian alvarez gte1	Yes	BUY	42	21¢	$9	0x3367f9…
07-19 16:24:45	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals mikel oyarzabal gte1	Yes	BUY	42	32¢	$13	0xe445c5…
07-19 16:24:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	42	35¢	$15	0xfd3402…
07-19 16:23:55	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 first corner	Argentina	BUY	42	45¢	$19	0x2b4015…
07-19 16:23:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 corners total 8pt5	Over	BUY	42	42¢	$18	0xea3568…
07-19 16:23:19	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 corners first half total 3pt5	Over	BUY	42	53¢	$22	0x45555d…
07-19 16:21:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts first half	Yes	BUY	42	18¢	$8	0x4f8138…
07-19 16:20:40	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	42	42¢	$17	0x9adb53…
07-19 16:20:28	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	42	28¢	$12	0x2f8690…
07-19 11:56:48	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403316	Yes	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0x59d651…
07-19 11:56:46	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403316	Yes	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xc24995…
07-19 11:56:09	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403316	Yes	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x54e15d…
07-19 11:18:48	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	SELL	16	70¢	$11	0xa17f75…
07-19 10:34:58	will the announcers say handball during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403316	Yes	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x5a9c26…
07-19 09:44:55	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	SELL	15	70¢	$11	0xcd711d…
07-19 09:17:42	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	SELL	15	70¢	$11	0x25fa2a…
07-19 09:01:25	will the announcers say shakira during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403318	No	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x0c3b5f…
07-19 08:33:31	will the announcers say powerade during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403325	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x9794b3…
07-19 08:33:01	will the announcers say powerade during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403325	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x7d260e…
07-19 08:32:36	will the announcers say powerade during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403325	Yes	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0xd06135…
07-17 13:37:12	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757327	Yes	BUY	9	49¢	$4	0x589b25…
07-17 11:02:54	will the announcers say ronaldo during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740641	No	BUY	25	49¢	$12	0x51d3e5…
07-17 11:00:12	will trump say fake news during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255815	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0xfb90ac…
07-17 10:54:55	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x4e4c25…
07-17 10:53:43	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xe77d27…
07-17 10:53:21	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x52393d…
07-17 10:50:49	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x928456…
07-17 10:41:01	will trump say iran 3 times during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255810	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x944004…
07-17 09:42:25	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	Yes	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0x82d6af…
07-17 09:09:07	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757327	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xcf5a1f…
07-17 09:09:07	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757327	Yes	BUY	19	41¢	$8	0x353756…
07-17 09:08:09	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757327	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x95283f…
07-17 07:18:13	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x4d5aea…
07-17 07:17:48	will the announcers say bieber during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403319	No	BUY	60	26¢	$16	0x02674b…
07-17 06:49:48	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	9	38¢	$3	0x080b3f…
07-17 06:49:45	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	21	22¢	$5	0x72a09f…
07-17 06:49:06	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x9a9ba6…
07-17 06:48:49	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xbc9438…
07-17 06:47:21	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0x9d9fc3…
07-17 06:46:00	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xbb6e9e…
07-17 06:44:54	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0xb9f14c…
07-17 06:42:43	will the announcers say ronaldo during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740641	No	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x932726…
07-17 06:42:24	will the announcers say penalty kick during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757328	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xe0259d…
07-17 06:39:18	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x7aef80…
07-17 06:37:19	will the announcers say bieber during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403319	No	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0x22d22d…
07-17 06:37:12	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0xa31cff…
07-17 06:37:00	will the announcers say soccer during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757336	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x424469…
07-17 06:36:18	will the announcers say bieber during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403319	No	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x24b0e6…
07-17 06:36:13	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0xe9f8b5…
07-17 06:36:13	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x3d5232…
07-17 06:35:58	will the announcers say soccer during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757336	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x8023ba…
07-17 06:35:57	will the announcers say soccer during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757336	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xfaa47a…
07-17 06:35:10	will the announcers say bieber during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403319	No	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x5c8f51…
07-17 06:35:01	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0xee5ef5…
07-17 06:35:01	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x20614c…
07-17 06:34:40	will the announcers say soccer during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757336	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x46c7e7…
07-17 06:34:39	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x153557…
07-17 06:34:25	will the announcers say soccer during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757336	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x92395f…
07-16 21:04:59	will trump say venezuela during speech to the nation 20260713200621424	No	SELL	90	32¢	$29	0xb61c7e…
07-16 19:56:11	will trump say ukraine during speech to the nation 20260714024924416	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xafc501…
07-16 19:41:46	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x2d0482…
07-16 19:39:37	will trump say ukraine during speech to the nation 20260714024924416	No	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x91f4cc…
07-16 17:30:44	will trump say venezuela during speech to the nation 20260713200621424	No	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xa95c6c…
07-16 17:29:56	will trump say venezuela during speech to the nation 20260713200621424	No	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xc12ad6…
07-16 17:21:02	will trump say venezuela during speech to the nation 20260713200621424	No	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xaebf0d…
07-16 15:44:13	will trump say ukraine during speech to the nation 20260714024924416	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x79392c…
07-16 12:34:25	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during speech to the nation 20260713200621423	No	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0xbce445…
07-16 12:25:38	will trump say ukraine during speech to the nation 20260714024924416	No	BUY	12	76¢	$10	0x7219e2…
07-16 09:47:20	will trump say hottest during speech to the nation 20260713200621429	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0xe93040…
07-16 08:42:34	will trump say israel or israeli during speech to the nation 20260713200621433	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x7deb05…
07-16 01:28:07	will trump say israel or israeli during speech to the nation 20260713200621433	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xaa421b…
07-15 22:50:29	will trump say ukraine during speech to the nation 20260714024924416	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x9f48c2…