Tired-Retina — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$180

Unrealized P&L

-$43

Hit rate

64.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.90K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$85

Open exposure

$47

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 10-20 20:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Politics

35% 33% +$1,484

Other

33% 25% -$622

Crypto

19% 27% +$49

Tech

12% 0% -$800

Sports

1% 100% +$69

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+499	$70	8¢	$42	-$28	10-20 20:05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+1,025	$10	0¢	$4	-$6	09-16 17:17
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+513	$10	0¢	$1	-$9	09-16 17:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	2	$2.1K	2,247	2,247	+0	Yes	+$1,704	05-04 04:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$522	444	444	+0	No	+$122	06-10 17:58
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	1	$500	3,067	0	+3,067	Yes	-$500	05-30 10:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	3	$459	395	395	+0	Up	+$59	05-03 09:59
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	2	$344	254	254	+0	Yes	+$144	06-30 17:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$313	328	328	+0	open	—	09-30 18:20
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	2	$300	5,651	0	+5,651	Yes	-$300	05-30 10:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	2	$285	318	318	+0	Down	+$91	05-10 18:58
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	1	$200	233	0	+233	No	-$200	05-03 11:40
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	5	$140	1,322	0	+1,322	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	-$140	05-31 17:19
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?	2	$105	1,274	1,274	+0	No	-$95	06-12 17:51
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	1	$100	156	0	+156	Yes	+$56	06-10 18:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$100	725	0	+725	No	-$100	09-16 17:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	1	$100	322	0	+322	Up	-$100	05-09 10:24
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$100	503	0	+503	No	-$100	05-08 04:04
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$100	242	0	+242	Spain	-$100	07-19 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	1	$100	138	0	+138	Down	+$38	05-09 09:59
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	1	$100	618	0	+618	No	-$100	06-06 15:50
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	1	$100	475	0	+475	No	-$100	06-06 15:51
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$100	169	0	+169	Yes	+$69	07-19 15:23
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?	2	$93	1,217	1,217	+0	No	-$86	06-12 17:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	2	$70	49	49	+0	Up	+$20	05-03 11:33
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$70	499	0	+499	open	—	10-20 20:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$50	312	0	+312	No	-$50	06-18 17:28
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	1	$50	104	0	+104	No	-$50	06-15 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$38	33	33	+0	Up	+$28	05-14 18:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	1	$25	131	0	+131	Up	+$106	05-03 10:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	1	$25	114	0	+114	Up	-$25	05-08 19:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	1	$25	145	0	+145	Down	-$25	05-03 10:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	1	$25	35	0	+35	Down	-$25	05-11 17:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 20:05:57	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x89958d…
09-30 18:20:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	328	62¢	$203	0x711533…
09-29 17:33:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x3dbf0e…
09-27 12:54:18	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xd9a2a0…
09-16 17:17:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x97abdf…
09-16 17:17:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,025	1¢	$10	0xc58dfb…
09-16 17:17:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	513	2¢	$10	0x096a08…
09-16 17:13:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	571	14¢	$80	0x4b649e…
09-16 17:08:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xe082e3…
09-16 17:08:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,222	1¢	$20	0xd930ef…
09-16 17:08:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x5dcb63…
07-19 19:28:49	Spain vs. Argentina: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x0d1b1b…
07-19 19:27:04	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts first half	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xa09af8…
07-19 15:23:07	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0xb12f24…
07-19 15:09:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	242	41¢	$100	0x9f20e5…
06-30 17:22:47	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	254	96¢	$244	0xa6e549…
06-18 17:28:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	312	16¢	$50	0xb520de…
06-15 17:29:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0xb4c2e5…
06-14 10:37:13	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	87	11¢	$10	0x2eeaee…
06-14 10:23:40	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	682	1¢	$10	0xd2be46…
06-14 08:17:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xddaeca…
06-13 10:30:15	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	263	19¢	$50	0x66493a…
06-13 10:13:33	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	254	39¢	$100	0x1a2dd4…
06-12 17:51:21	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	1,274	0¢	$5	0x599d5d…
06-12 17:51:09	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	1,217	0¢	$4	0x51dded…
06-10 18:26:09	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x03cb24…
06-10 17:58:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	444	73¢	$322	0x104036…
06-06 15:54:25	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	1,274	8¢	$100	0x4456ac…
06-06 15:53:34	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	1,217	7¢	$89	0x371cfd…
06-06 15:51:18	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	475	21¢	$100	0xfebd90…
06-06 15:50:24	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	618	16¢	$100	0xb55285…
05-31 17:19:40	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	BUY	556	2¢	$10	0xf67622…
05-31 17:09:45	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	BUY	209	5¢	$10	0x92d520…
05-31 17:08:09	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	BUY	182	5¢	$10	0xa85506…
05-31 17:06:27	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x20dd8e…
05-30 10:52:03	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xe4d264…
05-30 10:47:09	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,603	6¢	$200	0x1a2ca2…
05-30 10:44:39	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,049	5¢	$100	0x00fe72…
05-30 10:35:24	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3,067	16¢	$500	0x70b60d…
05-30 10:31:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	444	45¢	$200	0x1afd6c…
05-23 17:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x75aa6e…
05-23 16:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xea5efd…
05-16 09:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x255973…
05-16 08:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xb8f92f…
05-14 18:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x9dc4a1…
05-14 18:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x15e069…
05-14 18:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xcccee9…
05-11 19:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x804bdc…
05-11 19:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x7151bb…
05-11 17:52:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x8186ae…
05-10 19:33:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	62	9¢	$6	0x5f3d48…
05-10 19:28:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xfb4e5b…
05-10 18:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	318	59¢	$188	0xda9ea5…
05-10 18:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	318	31¢	$97	0xb9fbe6…
05-10 18:46:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x702b2e…
05-09 10:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x94cc4a…
05-09 10:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	322	31¢	$100	0xaf0248…
05-09 09:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	138	72¢	$100	0xac51c6…
05-09 07:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xe136ef…
05-08 20:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x60d178…
05-08 19:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc66113…
05-08 19:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0x614c1a…
05-08 19:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x737bc8…
05-08 17:58:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x91f311…
05-08 17:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	138	4¢	$5	0x1bf4aa…
05-08 17:53:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x6b9d13…
05-08 04:04:58	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	503	20¢	$100	0x2e4011…
05-04 21:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x949c52…
05-04 21:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x9df408…
05-04 04:52:52	Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	2,247	85¢	$1,904	0xf5005b…
05-03 11:40:02	Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x9516a5…
05-03 11:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	SELL	49	92¢	$45	0xe01524…
05-03 11:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xa412b8…
05-03 10:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	204	1¢	$2	0x106a89…
05-03 10:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	204	10¢	$20	0xf0575f…
05-03 10:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	145	17¢	$25	0x16ac29…
05-03 10:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	131	19¢	$25	0xd36848…
05-03 09:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	395	66¢	$259	0x26aefe…
05-03 09:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xb14fa3…
05-03 09:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0x3137db…
05-03 09:00:44	Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	2,247	9¢	$200	0x29a653…