Deep-Cluster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.59K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.30K

Hit rate

47.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$17.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$225

Open exposure

$3.20K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-22 20:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Other

59% 38% -$4,221

Tech

39% 33% +$832

Politics

1% 0% -$200

Crypto

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	+2,960	-$145	91¢	$2.7K	+$2,839	10-01 23:35
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+976	$500	32¢	$317	-$183	10-20 16:47
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+1,600	$400	8¢	$136	-$264	10-01 23:36
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+30,299	$100	0¢	$45	-$55	10-01 23:37
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+1,895	$50	1¢	$11	-$39	10-01 23:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	3	$2.1K	3,305	0	+3,305	No	-$2,088	06-09 20:40
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	3	$1.7K	4,000	1,040	+2,960	open	—	10-01 23:35
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$1.5K	1,712	1,712	+0	Yes	+$1,266	02-09 21:27
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	2	$1.3K	1,305	1,305	+0	No	+$987	02-09 21:27
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	3	$1.2K	2,052	2,052	+0	open	—	10-20 16:39
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	4	$1.1K	15,298	15,298	+0	No	-$813	06-29 19:16
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	1	$1000	1,044	0	+1,044	Yes	+$44	02-10 21:56
will anthropic have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$1000	1,065	0	+1,065	Yes	+$65	02-25 18:16
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	2	$800	3,707	0	+3,707	Yes	-$800	05-20 03:48
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$600	1,158	0	+1,158	No	-$600	06-09 20:19
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	1	$500	976	0	+976	open	—	10-20 16:47
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	2	$500	1,146	0	+1,146	No	-$500	02-25 19:07
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	1	$400	1,600	0	+1,600	open	—	10-01 23:36
will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	2	$322	4,438	4,438	+0	No	-$278	06-29 19:17
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$318	2,095	2,029	+66	No	+$118	04-23 18:21
will apple watch be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	1	$300	320	0	+320	No	+$20	03-04 19:10
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	1	$282	516	0	+516	Yes	-$282	04-07 20:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	2	$200	150,000	0	+150,000	Yes	-$200	03-12 23:18
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	2	$200	1,218	0	+1,218	Yes	-$200	06-30 15:20
will there be at least 1100 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 285 136	1	$200	256	0	+256	Yes	+$56	02-20 01:30
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	2	$154	1,163	1,163	+0	No	-$46	03-05 19:04
will macbook be said 10 times during the nyc apple event on march 4	1	$130	145	0	+145	No	+$15	03-04 19:09
will there be at least 1050 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	1	$110	181	0	+181	Yes	+$71	02-23 13:47
will ipad be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	1	$100	125	0	+125	No	+$25	03-04 19:10
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	2	$100	30,299	0	+30,299	open	—	10-01 23:37
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	1	$100	464	0	+464	No	+$364	06-16 02:33
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$100	714	0	+714	No	-$100	02-20 00:55
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	1	$100	1,211	0	+1,211	Yes	-$100	04-23 14:43
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	1	$100	152	0	+152	No	-$100	03-03 15:30
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$100	1,773	0	+1,773	No	-$100	04-07 20:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 20:40:24	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	9¢	$10	0xd352f8…
10-20 16:47:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	976	51¢	$500	0x49fb11…
10-20 16:39:23	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	2,052	26¢	$534	0x7d9704…
10-01 23:37:41	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,091	31¢	$340	0x5ee8d8…
10-01 23:37:23	Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	11,097	0¢	$50	0x92e060…
10-01 23:37:09	Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	19,203	0¢	$50	0x545e5b…
10-01 23:36:42	Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,895	3¢	$50	0x64e953…
10-01 23:36:09	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,600	25¢	$400	0x878e6d…
10-01 23:35:47	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	SELL	1,040	88¢	$915	0x25b03f…
10-01 23:34:57	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	962	31¢	$300	0x8deb6f…
07-01 22:43:44	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xe8feb8…
07-01 22:43:28	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xb5598b…
06-30 15:20:47	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	538	19¢	$100	0x89d718…
06-30 15:20:37	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	680	15¢	$100	0x447548…
06-29 19:17:07	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	4,438	0¢	$22	0x36eb63…
06-29 19:16:59	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	15,298	1¢	$153	0x7233ce…
06-29 16:57:14	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x293153…
06-24 03:55:41	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	3,522	8¢	$271	0x909e5d…
06-22 17:18:37	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	6,033	7¢	$415	0xa98f69…
06-22 17:14:31	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	5,742	5¢	$280	0x40593c…
06-22 17:14:01	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	4,438	7¢	$300	0x55c417…
06-17 18:38:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	222	36¢	$80	0x638a57…
06-17 18:38:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	580	17¢	$100	0x1b1136…
06-17 02:41:42	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$6	0x0fcc2c…
06-16 02:33:22	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	BUY	464	22¢	$100	0xdd1c3d…
06-09 20:40:42	Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,078	64¢	$688	0xab19de…
06-09 20:40:22	Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,565	64¢	$1,000	0xe5eaef…
06-09 20:40:07	Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	662	60¢	$400	0x285a49…
06-09 20:19:52	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	181	55¢	$100	0xedd911…
06-09 20:15:55	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	977	51¢	$500	0x09bce4…
05-20 03:48:33	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	BUY	2,132	31¢	$670	0x6cc536…
05-20 03:48:07	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	No	BUY	3,207	22¢	$700	0x47498b…
05-20 03:34:10	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	No	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x84e8a4…
05-20 03:34:03	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	BUY	1,868	5¢	$100	0xdc2c18…
04-23 18:21:30	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0xc09dbd…
04-23 18:21:14	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,022	11¢	$217	0xa7180f…
04-23 14:43:10	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1,211	8¢	$100	0x72b874…
04-07 20:59:13	Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	No	BUY	516	55¢	$282	0xa0efdb…
04-07 20:57:43	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,773	6¢	$100	0x05f2b9…
04-07 20:57:31	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,095	5¢	$100	0xaa8481…
03-12 23:18:43	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	BUY	100,000	0¢	$100	0x043580…
03-12 19:49:23	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$100	0x2f8025…
03-05 19:05:01	will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x2e36ea…
03-05 19:04:35	will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	Yes	SELL	1,163	5¢	$54	0xd37548…
03-05 19:03:21	will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	Yes	BUY	1,163	9¢	$100	0xcad7c4…
03-04 19:10:57	will ipad be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x37e02a…
03-04 19:10:19	will apple watch be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	No	BUY	320	94¢	$300	0xd489b6…
03-04 19:09:47	will macbook be said 10 times during the nyc apple event on march 4	No	BUY	145	89¢	$130	0x371066…
03-03 15:32:57	gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	No	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x01b845…
03-03 15:30:23	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	Yes	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x590aaa…
03-03 15:27:05	will m5 be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x2141ae…
02-25 19:07:50	gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	Yes	BUY	513	49¢	$250	0x07893f…
02-25 19:04:20	gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	Yes	BUY	633	39¢	$250	0x07ae10…
02-25 18:16:12	will anthropic have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	1,065	94¢	$1,000	0x2e82fe…
02-23 13:47:50	will there be at least 1050 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	181	61¢	$110	0x34ee49…
02-20 01:30:40	will there be at least 1100 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 285 136	Yes	BUY	256	78¢	$200	0xd3d1f6…
02-20 00:56:56	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	5,057	1¢	$50	0x2a4d5c…
02-20 00:55:28	will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0x3621f9…
02-10 21:56:41	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	Yes	BUY	1,044	96¢	$1,000	0xee1325…
02-09 21:27:59	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	SELL	1,712	81¢	$1,392	0xee2cba…
02-09 21:27:51	will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	No	SELL	1,305	87¢	$1,137	0xebec25…
02-04 15:12:14	will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	No	BUY	1,305	11¢	$150	0xd339e4…
02-04 15:11:44	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	1,712	7¢	$126	0x38a84f…
01-08 17:57:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd88bdb…
01-08 17:57:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa531f4…
01-08 17:57:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x9c8ebe…
01-08 17:57:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x69dac1…
01-08 17:57:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x20d3d1…
01-08 17:57:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$1	0x01551a…
01-08 17:57:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xdb0bb1…
01-08 17:57:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd363ff…
01-08 17:57:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x278029…
01-08 17:54:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xf65a60…
01-08 17:54:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x324990…
01-08 17:16:58	maduro mugshot released by january 9	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xa13a73…
01-07 19:07:55	new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	Yes	BUY	238	4¢	$10	0x276512…
01-05 13:33:27	maduro mugshot released by january 9	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x9abbf1…