Smug-Mechanism — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$92

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.7%

Resolved

168

Trades

4,814

lifetime

Volume

$14.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-20

last 05-14 12:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 57% +$92

Other

0% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 1971 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	43	$130	414	0	+414	Down	$-33	05-13 11:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	34	$130	2,276	0	+2,276	Down	$-8	05-13 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	35	$126	314	0	+314	Down	+$8	05-13 10:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	27	$123	320	0	+320	Down	$-13	05-13 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	30	$123	271	0	+271	Down	+$1	05-13 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	35	$121	1,271	0	+1,271	Down	+$21	05-13 13:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	38	$120	283	0	+283	Down	+$2	05-13 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	38	$120	639	0	+639	Up	$-34	05-13 08:39
btc updown 5m 1775726700	7	$119	96	86	+11	open	—	04-09 09:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	33	$119	270	0	+270	Down	$-2	05-13 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	38	$116	336	0	+336	Down	+$2	05-13 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	33	$116	328	0	+328	Down	+$112	05-13 11:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	33	$114	248	0	+248	Up	+$2	05-13 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	31	$114	328	0	+328	Up	+$90	05-13 08:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	33	$107	590	0	+590	Down	$-39	05-13 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	33	$106	345	0	+345	Down	$-41	05-13 11:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	30	$106	423	0	+423	Down	+$190	05-13 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	27	$104	222	0	+222	Up	+$8	05-13 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	26	$102	292	0	+292	Down	$-24	05-13 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	31	$98	308	0	+308	Down	+$89	05-13 10:34
btc updown 5m 1776059400	10	$97	71	50	+21	open	—	04-13 05:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	26	$97	340	0	+340	Up	$-28	05-13 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	45	$96	419	0	+419	Up	$-26	05-13 13:54
btc updown 5m 1775047800	7	$94	71	36	+36	open	—	04-01 12:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	41	$94	581	0	+581	Down	$-21	05-13 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	31	$93	334	0	+334	Down	$-25	05-13 08:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	31	$90	195	0	+195	Down	+$15	05-13 10:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	51	$90	432	0	+432	Down	$-9	05-13 11:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	22	$90	388	0	+388	Up	$-27	05-13 09:28
btc updown 5m 1775036400	5	$89	47	45	+2	open	—	04-01 09:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 12:02:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0xc4aa71…
05-14 12:02:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	28	8¢	$2	0xa1713f…
05-14 12:02:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x58f47e…
05-14 12:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xd84934…
05-14 12:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x2f2bfa…
05-14 12:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0x05a302…
05-14 12:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x781ce3…
05-14 12:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	31	8¢	$3	0x6e2103…
05-14 12:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x5716ea…
05-14 12:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0x0642b5…
05-14 12:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	18	14¢	$3	0x7703f7…
05-14 12:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0xfc9141…
05-14 12:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	21	12¢	$3	0x795668…
05-14 12:01:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	23	11¢	$3	0x60f689…
05-14 12:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	21	12¢	$3	0xfd4bdb…
05-14 11:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x277676…
05-14 11:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xd58556…
05-14 11:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x11d902…
05-14 11:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	28¢	$2	0x4d9576…
05-14 10:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xf5436a…
05-14 10:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	32¢	$2	0x8fd2bc…
05-14 10:13:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0x23a437…
05-14 10:11:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xd78e1e…
05-14 10:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0x861b69…
05-14 10:06:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x2ddc82…
05-14 10:05:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x78e91d…
05-14 09:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x7fb415…
05-14 09:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x766014…
05-14 09:53:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x35b0b0…
05-14 09:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x199339…
05-14 09:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x1e678f…
05-14 09:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x3624d0…
05-14 07:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x99de91…
05-14 07:05:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0xed9295…
05-14 07:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xe9aef3…
05-14 07:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	66¢	$6	0x75e120…
05-14 07:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x4f309f…
05-14 06:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x3e0a76…
05-14 06:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xca4f91…
05-14 06:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x5e78e8…
05-14 06:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x6edfd0…
05-14 06:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x505f29…
05-14 06:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x5f4aeb…
05-14 06:50:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x24c258…
05-14 06:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xafcd2b…
05-14 06:08:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x306a5f…
05-14 06:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x732c99…
05-14 06:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xae8f36…
05-14 05:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x7f4519…
05-14 05:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	12¢	$1	0x07846c…
05-14 05:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x9b2824…
05-14 05:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	36¢	$3	0x64b72e…
05-14 05:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x177b56…
05-14 05:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	33¢	$4	0xa7f60f…
05-14 05:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x59e30e…
05-14 05:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xd414ed…
05-14 05:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	24	19¢	$5	0x387108…
05-14 05:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xac65a5…
05-14 05:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xb41733…
05-14 05:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xaf3c7b…
05-14 05:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xb2afc7…
05-14 05:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x678bac…
05-14 05:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x39f989…
05-14 05:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	15	30¢	$5	0x8df963…
05-14 05:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xced2f8…
05-14 05:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x5e0661…
05-14 05:07:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x03158d…
05-14 05:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x9970a1…
05-14 05:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	38¢	$3	0x658e18…
05-14 05:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb6029f…
05-14 05:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x9020e9…
05-14 05:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x85912a…
05-14 05:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0xd8231d…
05-14 05:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xa1bafc…
05-14 05:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x74f9c2…
05-14 05:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x78b029…
05-14 04:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	55¢	$1	0x212bf2…
05-14 04:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xbcac37…
05-14 04:56:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xb0bf6b…
05-14 04:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x30efa2…
05-14 04:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0xee6cdb…
05-14 04:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x493441…
05-14 04:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	26	66¢	$17	0x997338…
05-14 04:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	17¢	$2	0x71a652…
05-14 04:53:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xa007d9…
05-14 04:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xac2e54…
05-14 04:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0x0e5e1c…
05-14 04:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x639076…
05-14 04:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	41¢	$4	0x48dc19…
05-14 04:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xbe3055…
05-14 04:36:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	22	75¢	$17	0xfb89ff…
05-14 04:36:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x1c93ba…
05-14 04:36:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0x0fad26…
05-14 04:36:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x1eaedf…
05-14 04:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xefbf5c…
05-14 04:22:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xe96872…
05-14 04:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x1fbf8b…
05-14 04:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xaf19a3…
05-14 04:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x628357…
05-14 04:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x47f473…