Ambitious-Encirclement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.21K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

67.4%

Resolved

337

Trades

529

lifetime

Volume

$33.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

$151

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-28 13:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

87% 59% +$1,123

Politics

13% 100% +$108

Crypto

0% 0% -$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	Yes		+179	$100	57¢	$103	+$3	10-28 10:04
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes		+91	$50	54¢	$49	-$1	10-28 10:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$4.4K	2,680	2,680	+0	No	+$108	05-23 00:17
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 90 114	2	$964	588	588	+0	Yes	+$153	02-04 15:55
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 320 339	2	$882	548	548	+0	No	-$71	02-04 12:08
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	29	$776	1,108	1,108	+0	Yes	+$177	02-02 14:17
Middlesbrough FC vs. Cardiff City FC: O/U 3.5	3	$651	889	449	+440	Over	-$229	10-17 11:13
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 460 479	2	$564	295	295	+0	No	+$17	02-01 10:52
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 380 399	30	$563	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$35	02-02 10:18
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	1	$558	671	0	+671	Yes	-$558	02-05 12:16
Tōkyō Verdy vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to Score	1	$220	450	0	+450	No	-$220	10-15 11:25
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5	1	$220	440	0	+440	Over	-$220	10-17 15:05
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	1	$220	440	0	+440	Yes	+$220	10-14 10:10
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Alanyaspor: Both Teams to Score	1	$220	423	0	+423	No	-$220	10-17 15:32
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	2	$210	152	152	+0	No	+$17	01-12 23:43
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-10-16?	3	$200	444	0	+444	Yes	+$244	10-16 13:22
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-10-26?	3	$200	391	0	+391	No	-$21	10-26 13:12
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$200	226	0	+226	No	+$26	05-13 11:05
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-17?	2	$197	147	147	+0	Yes	+$97	10-17 16:22
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-25?	2	$197	147	147	+0	Yes	+$97	10-25 13:14
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-10-17?	2	$172	122	122	+0	Yes	+$72	10-17 15:30
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-17?	2	$172	122	122	+0	Yes	+$72	10-17 13:37
SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5	2	$169	119	119	+0	Over	+$69	10-17 15:04
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 320 339	1	$168	273	0	+273	No	+$105	01-29 10:43
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$168	168	0	+168	Yes	+$1	01-28 09:56
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-10-17?	2	$161	111	111	+0	No	+$61	10-17 13:29
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-18?	2	$161	111	111	+0	Yes	+$61	10-18 15:02
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-10-24?	2	$161	111	111	+0	No	+$61	10-24 15:27
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-10-24?	2	$159	109	109	+0	Yes	+$59	10-24 15:01
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-24?	2	$156	106	106	+0	No	+$56	10-24 15:28
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-17?	2	$156	106	106	+0	No	+$56	10-17 15:30
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 480 499	1	$153	168	0	+168	No	+$15	01-24 10:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 13:23:14	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x9f9ab5…
10-28 13:22:29	SC Paderborn 07 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	192	26¢	$50	0xf4831b…
10-28 13:21:32	Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)	SC Internacional	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xeb40d9…
10-28 13:20:08	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x17bb3a…
10-28 10:15:14	Will Pisa SC vs. Palermo FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x35776f…
10-28 10:14:53	Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0xacf119…
10-28 10:14:04	Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0xcd8d77…
10-28 10:13:35	Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	252	20¢	$50	0x9f10af…
10-28 10:10:34	Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0xf51294…
10-28 10:10:16	Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x0224a5…
10-28 10:09:32	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x97d4f2…
10-28 10:09:20	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0xc0e23b…
10-28 10:08:52	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x198d17…
10-28 10:08:37	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x4d1dcd…
10-28 10:08:23	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x57ea9d…
10-28 10:08:02	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0xfcc5d3…
10-28 10:07:41	Will BK Hacken win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xa7b822…
10-28 10:04:56	Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xb9dd39…
10-28 10:04:37	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x5c30ae…
10-28 10:04:13	Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)	Venezia FC	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x32da72…
10-28 10:01:58	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x0c751b…
10-28 09:57:02	Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x636d9b…
10-28 09:56:52	Will Gamba Osaka win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0xa662f3…
10-27 14:09:54	Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5	Over	SELL	185	25¢	$46	0x9f5dd7…
10-27 11:57:27	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	185	27¢	$50	0xbdfc01…
10-27 11:56:50	AIK vs. IF Elfsborg: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	238	21¢	$50	0xea4e7d…
10-27 11:54:53	Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x7a2832…
10-27 11:53:06	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x7778b7…
10-27 11:52:12	Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x77363f…
10-27 10:39:48	Will Vissel Kobe win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0xe2c279…
10-27 10:39:36	Will Vissel Kobe win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	49	25¢	$12	0x42371e…
10-27 10:39:35	Will Vissel Kobe win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0xdc9ebe…
10-27 10:32:27	Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	185	27¢	$50	0x45164b…
10-27 10:30:26	Beijing Guoan vs. Jeonbuk FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x9a5e4b…
10-27 10:28:21	Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x70c4b8…
10-27 10:27:42	Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5)	Torino FC	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xdebe9b…
10-27 10:27:12	Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)	Cagliari Calcio	BUY	197	51¢	$100	0xcf66ec…
10-27 10:26:42	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x10e93a…
10-27 10:26:21	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x4857a9…
10-27 10:25:59	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xa5f49d…
10-27 10:25:38	Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x5c1add…
10-27 10:23:41	Will Beijing Guoan win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x671314…
10-27 10:22:53	Will Vissel Kobe win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0xc12abd…
10-27 10:20:09	Kyoto Sanga FC vs. Newcastle United Jets: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xcd6ea3…
10-27 10:19:06	Will Vissel Kobe win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	186	27¢	$50	0x9a2cec…
10-27 10:17:20	Will Daejeon Citizen FC win on 2026-10-27?	No	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x58cfcf…
10-27 10:16:51	Spread: Kyoto Sanga FC (-1.5)	Newcastle United Jets	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0xab9e85…
10-26 13:12:44	Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xff1fae…
10-26 13:12:03	Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xe33971…
10-26 12:19:21	CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	238	21¢	$50	0x13b68e…
10-26 12:14:35	Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xd013db…
10-26 12:13:50	CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x590b6b…
10-26 11:26:59	Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)	CA Mineiro	BUY	108	46¢	$50	0xe06e21…
10-26 11:26:00	Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5)	CA Osasuna	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0xb96ec1…
10-26 11:25:17	Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-10-26?	No	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xd30a40…
10-26 11:24:48	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xbd3c51…
10-25 15:25:00	Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xfa5742…
10-25 15:21:38	Spread: PSV (-1.5)	Feyenoord Rotterdam	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0xa060ab…
10-25 15:20:38	Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)	Académico de Viseu FC	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x91e53d…
10-25 15:19:50	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0xe2682a…
10-25 15:19:24	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x7dcb08…
10-25 15:19:09	Spread: AZ (-1.5)	FC Twente	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xc7b87a…
10-25 15:18:20	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x1bedd7…
10-25 15:17:36	Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)	US Lecce	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x8c31ed…
10-25 15:16:42	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	SC Freiburg	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x43e7df…
10-25 15:15:23	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	SC Freiburg	SELL	65	75¢	$49	0x52bb23…
10-25 15:14:50	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	SC Freiburg	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x3304cd…
10-25 15:13:17	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xe3531b…
10-25 15:12:41	Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x2a37a3…
10-25 15:10:56	Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-10-25?	No	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0xa16209…
10-25 15:10:42	Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-10-25?	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0x243dd4…
10-25 13:32:53	Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)	ACF Fiorentina	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0xbc463b…
10-25 13:22:42	AZ vs. FC Twente: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0xa33888…
10-25 13:20:20	Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x8c5ace…
10-25 13:19:23	Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x73f040…
10-25 13:18:38	Will AZ win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0xb53e44…
10-25 13:17:29	Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)	US Lecce	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xefa749…
10-25 13:14:47	Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	147	100¢	$147	0x278faf…
10-25 11:00:32	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x0f235c…
10-25 11:00:11	Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x2ee2a7…
10-25 10:59:54	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xaecca4…
10-25 10:59:21	Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x3ee66d…
10-25 10:59:05	Spread: Genoa CFC (-1.5)	Venezia FC	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xfc76eb…
10-25 10:58:32	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x3276b8…
10-25 10:58:23	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0xb2e027…
10-25 10:58:06	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0x60802f…
10-25 10:57:48	Spread: Viking FK (-1.5)	Tromsø IL	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xd3fcdb…
10-25 10:57:14	Spread: PSV (-1.5)	Feyenoord Rotterdam	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0xf273b8…
10-25 10:55:56	Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xecaaa5…
10-25 10:55:18	Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0xb9288a…
10-25 10:54:50	Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)	Getafe CF	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0x529e8f…
10-25 10:54:21	Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)	ACF Fiorentina	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xfa225c…
10-25 10:53:38	Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0xe7040f…
10-25 03:53:21	Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x0e0978…
10-25 03:52:50	Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)	FC Mito Holly Hock	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xd9e7bd…
10-25 03:52:06	Spread: Vegalta Sendai (-1.5)	Albirex Niigata	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xc488d4…
10-25 03:50:44	Will Sydney FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0xf755fb…
10-25 02:51:33	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0x7b4f38…
10-24 15:31:30	Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)	EC Bahia	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x789880…
10-24 15:30:39	Will FC Porto win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x2e1238…