Frightening-Weekender — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.23K

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

60.4%

Resolved

12,971

Trades

36,583

lifetime

Volume

$803.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 11-09 18:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 280 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 57% -$5,704

Politics

1% 45% +$1,614

Other

0% 47% -$44

Sports

0% 33% -$99

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 460 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	—	+8	$5	98¢	$8	+$3	11-09 19:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	3	$2.9K	3,001	3,001	+0	Yes	+$1,650	06-14 21:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 21:05 UTC	2	$2.8K	2,811	0	+2,811	Up	+$28	02-16 21:09
iran strike on israel by february 28	5	$2.4K	1,288	1,288	+0	Yes	-$3	02-28 16:09
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$2.0K	1,053	1,053	+0	Yes	+$42	02-28 21:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$2.0K	1,042	1,042	+0	Yes	+$32	02-28 21:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 20:35 UTC	2	$2.0K	2,045	0	+2,045	Down	+$34	02-16 20:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 22:00 UTC	1	$2.0K	2,088	0	+2,088	Up	+$88	02-15 22:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 20:10 UTC	2	$2.0K	2,031	0	+2,031	Up	+$31	02-17 20:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 04:30 UTC	1	$1.2K	1,212	0	+1,212	Down	+$12	02-16 04:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 04:20 UTC	1	$1.1K	1,112	0	+1,112	Up	+$12	02-16 04:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 17:00 UTC	2	$1.0K	1,060	0	+1,060	Down	-$1	02-18 17:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 17:15 UTC	2	$1.0K	1,050	0	+1,050	Up	+$29	02-18 17:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 05:40 UTC	2	$1.0K	1,050	0	+1,050	Down	+$31	02-28 05:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 04:05 UTC	1	$1.0K	1,020	0	+1,020	Up	+$10	02-16 04:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 18:00 UTC	2	$1.0K	1,020	0	+1,020	Down	+$10	02-19 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 18:25 UTC	2	$1.0K	1,020	0	+1,020	Up	+$10	02-19 18:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 17:30 UTC	2	$1.0K	1,030	0	+1,030	Down	+$21	02-19 17:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 20:00 UTC	2	$1.0K	1,015	0	+1,015	Down	+$10	02-17 20:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 05:45 UTC	2	$1.0K	1,101	0	+1,101	Down	+$96	02-28 05:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 21:20 UTC	1	$1000	1,042	0	+1,042	Up	+$42	02-15 21:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 04:10 UTC	1	$1000	1,031	0	+1,031	Up	+$31	02-16 04:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 16:35 UTC	1	$1000	1,010	0	+1,010	Up	+$10	02-17 16:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 04:25 UTC	1	$1000	1,031	0	+1,031	Up	+$31	02-16 04:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 21:20 UTC	1	$1000	1,022	0	+1,022	Up	+$22	02-18 21:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 16:05 UTC	1	$1000	1,010	0	+1,010	Up	+$10	02-16 16:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 19:50 UTC	1	$1000	1,010	0	+1,010	Down	+$10	02-17 19:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 22:15 UTC	1	$1000	1,010	0	+1,010	Down	+$10	02-19 22:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 16:20 UTC	1	$1000	1,010	0	+1,010	Down	+$10	02-19 16:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 16:55 UTC	1	$1000	1,010	0	+1,010	Down	+$10	02-19 16:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 21:25 UTC	1	$1000	1,010	0	+1,010	Up	+$10	02-18 21:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 19:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0x898dd1…
11-09 19:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x369c27…
11-09 19:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2d5df9…
11-09 19:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xcd7adb…
11-09 19:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x30e2a3…
11-09 19:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xeecc53…
11-09 19:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4ef49a…
11-09 19:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0xb56e99…
11-09 19:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	42	58¢	$24	0x5866e0…
11-09 18:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0x237258…
11-09 18:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xae7200…
11-09 18:34:54	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	49	48¢	$24	0x5c2d9d…
11-09 17:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0xa5e370…
11-09 17:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	49¢	$25	0x082422…
11-09 17:19:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	47	50¢	$24	0xf34334…
11-09 17:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x440bf2…
11-09 16:29:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x794f8c…
11-09 16:29:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x0ef64e…
11-09 16:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x66039d…
11-09 16:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x396b13…
11-09 16:09:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xfa3150…
11-09 15:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0xb68601…
11-09 15:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x4ccdcc…
11-09 15:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x2340fc…
11-09 15:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x8ff344…
11-09 15:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x80f76f…
11-09 15:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0xf8c9e0…
11-09 15:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x87a694…
11-09 15:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x0b4278…
11-09 15:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	27¢	$5	0x3f9924…
11-09 15:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	27¢	$5	0x1ae8a9…
11-09 15:19:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	69	30¢	$20	0x16160c…
11-09 15:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x75ebde…
11-09 14:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xda5f29…
11-09 14:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x3a2f98…
11-09 14:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x25a190…
11-09 14:49:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	45	52¢	$23	0x9ba82e…
11-09 14:49:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	45	52¢	$23	0x802f51…
11-09 14:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x99e5c1…
11-09 14:44:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	66	36¢	$23	0x424516…
11-09 14:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	32¢	$4	0x09dd40…
11-09 14:39:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x94c985…
11-09 14:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x3f3ec0…
11-09 14:09:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x66535e…
11-09 13:29:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	47	50¢	$24	0x08c63c…
11-09 13:09:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x581e45…
11-09 12:54:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x79a496…
11-09 12:44:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	46	51¢	$23	0xe8ad2d…
11-09 12:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0xa9703b…
11-09 12:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x88263a…
11-09 12:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x20c2c4…
11-09 12:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x93de07…
11-09 12:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x921ecb…
11-09 12:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x690ad9…
11-09 12:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x1e73a8…
11-09 12:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0xaf12d9…
11-09 12:29:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	47	50¢	$24	0x5aa38d…
11-09 12:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x3c4097…
11-09 12:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	60	39¢	$23	0xb26dde…
11-09 11:44:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	41	59¢	$24	0x0eafd8…
11-09 11:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	27¢	$5	0x8fc00f…
11-09 11:29:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	48	50¢	$24	0xd79443…
11-09 11:24:51	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x3d56ea…
11-09 11:19:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe8208f…
11-09 11:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x5199a8…
11-09 11:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x21354c…
11-09 11:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x0141c5…
11-09 10:59:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	45	53¢	$24	0x73cbe9…
11-09 10:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	49	48¢	$24	0xe9057b…
11-09 08:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x00c96f…
11-09 08:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x8592cd…
11-09 08:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0xf63fad…
11-09 08:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xd56654…
11-09 08:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x661a09…
11-09 08:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xc054e9…
11-09 08:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7b2ddb…
11-09 08:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0x666909…
11-09 07:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	53	44¢	$23	0xd6c3af…
11-09 07:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2510ee…
11-09 07:14:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	47	51¢	$24	0xfd49ed…
11-09 06:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x693f60…
11-09 06:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0x9b1fda…
11-09 06:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0x1ef18f…
11-09 06:45:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x2ce56f…
11-09 06:45:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0xf1eb28…
11-09 06:45:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x544ed2…
11-09 06:44:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	32	51¢	$16	0xda9c02…
11-09 06:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x1b8b68…
11-09 06:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0xabcbbb…
11-09 06:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x062e68…
11-09 06:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	41	58¢	$24	0x0a3a64…
11-09 06:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x9efb11…
11-09 05:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x90a1c1…
11-09 05:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6d619c…
11-09 05:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	88	54¢	$48	0xd3c6f3…
11-09 05:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xa47ce7…
11-09 05:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0x72a810…
11-09 05:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x1e9a51…
11-09 05:34:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	47	52¢	$24	0x30e766…
11-09 05:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	91	52¢	$47	0x983985…