Rural-Pickaxe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

Trades

273

lifetime

Volume

$6.69K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 07-17 13:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% 100% +$0

Other

27% — —

Tech

11% — —

Sports

3% 0% $-6

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$870	600	600	+0	open	—	04-22 05:25
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	24	$546	605	705	-100	open	—	03-18 20:08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	16	$324	167	167	+0	open	—	04-07 08:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$315	160	160	+0	open	—	04-03 04:49
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$312	160	160	+0	open	—	04-13 10:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$311	170	170	+0	open	—	04-13 13:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$277	160	160	+0	open	—	04-07 04:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$235	120	120	+0	open	—	04-07 06:48
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	2	$216	200	200	+0	open	—	04-26 12:48
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 13:07
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$197	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 13:54
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	4	$196	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 07:16
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	8	$195	200	200	+0	open	—	07-06 08:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$195	100	100	+0	open	—	05-05 07:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	16	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-05 08:49
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 06:47
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$179	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 05:02
will powell say iran during march press conference	16	$160	155	155	+0	open	—	03-18 18:43
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	5	$149	200	200	+0	open	—	03-28 18:54
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 100 119	11	$146	200	200	+0	open	—	03-28 15:08
iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	14	$96	80	80	+0	open	—	07-17 13:11
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$95	50	50	+0	open	—	04-03 10:51
will oman be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522905	2	$74	50	50	+0	open	—	06-17 11:09
donald trump of truth social posts march 20 march 27 80 99	3	$68	200	0	+200	open	—	03-24 19:49
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	2	$48	50	50	+0	open	—	06-02 07:19
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	5	$47	70	70	+0	open	—	03-24 11:07
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	2	$43	70	70	+0	open	—	04-26 22:39
Will Solana reach $170 in May?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	05-24 05:30
will bobby witt jrpt hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820631	2	$37	20	20	+0	open	—	07-14 03:30
donald trump of truth social posts april 7 april 14 100 119	2	$36	50	48	+2	open	—	04-10 11:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 13:21:16	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x8d2bc0…
07-17 13:11:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x473def…
07-17 13:10:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xc26313…
07-17 13:03:13	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x4baff1…
07-17 13:02:54	will drake attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357127	No	SELL	21	49¢	$10	0x2ccf46…
07-17 12:56:58	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x21be63…
07-17 12:56:33	will drake attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357127	No	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x523033…
07-17 12:55:27	will drake attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357127	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x19d6ee…
07-17 12:43:55	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xb7750f…
07-17 12:43:46	will pep guardiola attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357139	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x9a35e7…
07-17 12:43:12	will pep guardiola attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357139	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x59f3aa…
07-17 12:24:03	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0xea0169…
07-17 12:11:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x1f44f3…
07-17 12:11:39	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xbfbc20…
07-17 12:09:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x20711a…
07-17 12:08:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xd71aec…
07-17 12:04:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xfaf4bc…
07-17 12:02:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9f1cb1…
07-17 12:01:06	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xce3224…
07-17 12:00:51	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x57e506…
07-17 11:59:36	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xbe38fd…
07-17 11:53:01	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x4857e9…
07-17 11:48:22	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x19be1c…
07-17 11:47:31	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x7a633d…
07-16 13:18:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x42b8ab…
07-16 13:18:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0x3a9b21…
07-16 13:16:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0xe4742a…
07-16 13:16:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xa00c4d…
07-16 12:33:58	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x6e4fa3…
07-16 12:32:47	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xde67d8…
07-16 12:29:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	SELL	17	21¢	$4	0x27fff3…
07-16 12:27:11	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	17	21¢	$4	0x0fee8b…
07-14 03:46:16	will elly de la cruz hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820665	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x9151e5…
07-14 03:40:20	will elly de la cruz hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820665	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x14fd6f…
07-14 03:30:13	will bobby witt jrpt hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820631	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x9c3d52…
07-14 03:29:37	will bobby witt jrpt hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820631	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x0b5ea8…
07-06 08:27:20	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xa3d61f…
07-06 08:26:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x48c787…
07-06 08:20:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x695fdf…
07-06 08:19:22	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x53b822…
07-06 08:17:26	will nflx reach 80 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x785d3d…
07-06 08:16:53	will nflx reach 80 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x2e844c…
07-06 08:06:44	will pltr reach 135 by july 6 2026	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xa13e83…
07-06 08:06:26	will pltr reach 135 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x91ddcb…
07-06 08:00:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x9a3e44…
07-06 08:00:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xb23eb9…
07-06 07:59:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xf08e79…
07-06 07:59:26	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x4530c7…
07-01 06:59:37	will the announcers say golden boot during the usa vs bosnia herzegovina fifa world cup match 20260630205154123	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x96c550…
07-01 06:58:43	will the announcers say golden boot during the usa vs bosnia herzegovina fifa world cup match 20260630205154123	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xd113e3…
07-01 06:57:41	nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x0a66e1…
07-01 06:46:13	nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xeaaf2c…
06-23 06:31:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x801939…
06-23 06:20:38	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x34fe04…
06-23 06:20:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xe01588…
06-23 06:20:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x93192b…
06-23 06:19:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x318440…
06-23 06:19:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xfe5c37…
06-23 06:19:04	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x478375…
06-23 06:18:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xf08c2d…
06-23 06:08:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x89b301…
06-23 06:07:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x1cce1b…
06-23 06:07:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x0c668f…
06-23 06:06:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xa1eb01…
06-23 06:04:47	will the announcers say what a save during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900210	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xfab1bb…
06-23 06:00:44	will the announcers say qatar during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900200	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x8f9d5e…
06-23 06:00:11	will the announcers say what a save during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900210	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xcc3399…
06-23 06:00:10	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x13fe48…
06-23 05:59:58	will the announcers say handball during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900201	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x54e8db…
06-23 05:59:53	will starmer officially leave office by june 30 20260622151504652	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x9334f7…
06-23 05:59:43	will the announcers say qatar during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900200	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x68d014…
06-23 05:54:11	will starmer officially leave office by june 30 20260622151504652	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xea3284…
06-17 11:09:46	will oman be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522905	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x00ade4…
06-17 10:55:32	will saudi arabia be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522909	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x9a6db1…
06-17 10:55:17	will saudi arabia be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522909	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x8787e6…
06-17 10:53:41	will oman be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522905	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x7cd1d1…
06-07 12:25:01	kmx quarterly earnings gaap eps 06 17 2026 0pt94	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x26012c…
06-07 12:22:13	will xagusd dip to 66 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0xf4004c…
06-07 12:18:31	will xagusd dip to 66 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x62e8c2…
06-07 11:28:42	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 19 2026 20260601225410819	No	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0xe3c646…
06-07 11:26:31	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 19 2026 20260601225410819	No	BUY	2	68¢	$2	0x40c307…
06-07 10:39:21	will msft dip to 390 in june 2026	No	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0x1ceb7f…
06-07 10:38:57	will msft dip to 390 in june 2026	No	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x089fb6…
06-07 10:23:06	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 19 2026 20260601225410819	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x3d3685…
06-07 10:07:27	dbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt03	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x7b7b8f…
06-07 10:05:40	rh quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 11 2026 neg2pt05	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x81a5e2…
06-07 10:02:04	kmx quarterly earnings gaap eps 06 17 2026 0pt94	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xa446ca…
06-07 09:13:19	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 19 2026 20260601225410819	Yes	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x8db7a4…
06-07 09:12:40	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 19 2026 20260601225410819	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x239460…
06-03 16:39:58	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	667	1¢	$5	0x513480…
06-03 15:46:22	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	667	1¢	$6	0xca3441…
06-02 07:33:20	Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x949a9f…
06-02 07:32:40	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xb1cd1f…
06-02 07:32:05	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x786197…
06-02 07:19:15	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	No	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0xc43d94…
06-02 07:05:55	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	No	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xedba00…
06-02 06:54:55	Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x6b3394…
06-02 06:52:56	Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x42de02…
06-02 06:42:12	Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x83dca1…
06-02 06:41:43	Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xbdee38…