Rural-Pickaxe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

Trades

309

lifetime

Volume

$6.93K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 08-11 06:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

58% 100% +$0

Other

28% — —

Tech

10% — —

Sports

3% 0% $-6

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$870	600	600	+0	open	—	04-22 05:25
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	24	$546	605	705	-100	open	—	03-18 20:08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	16	$324	167	167	+0	open	—	04-07 08:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$315	160	160	+0	open	—	04-03 04:49
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$312	160	160	+0	open	—	04-13 10:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$311	170	170	+0	open	—	04-13 13:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$277	160	160	+0	open	—	04-07 04:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$235	120	120	+0	open	—	04-07 06:48
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	2	$216	200	200	+0	open	—	04-26 12:48
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 13:07
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$197	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 13:54
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	4	$196	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 07:16
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	8	$195	200	200	+0	open	—	07-06 08:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$195	100	100	+0	open	—	05-05 07:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	16	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-05 08:49
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 06:47
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$179	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 05:02
will powell say iran during march press conference	16	$160	155	155	+0	open	—	03-18 18:43
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	5	$149	200	200	+0	open	—	03-28 18:54
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 100 119	11	$146	200	200	+0	open	—	03-28 15:08
iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	14	$96	80	80	+0	open	—	07-17 13:11
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$95	50	50	+0	open	—	04-03 10:51
will oman be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522905	2	$74	50	50	+0	open	—	06-17 11:09
donald trump of truth social posts march 20 march 27 80 99	3	$68	200	0	+200	open	—	03-24 19:49
grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	4	$53	35	35	+0	open	—	08-11 06:53
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	2	$48	50	50	+0	open	—	06-02 07:19
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	5	$47	70	70	+0	open	—	03-24 11:07
grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	7	$43	39	39	+0	open	—	08-11 07:22
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	2	$43	70	70	+0	open	—	04-26 22:39
Will Solana reach $170 in May?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	05-24 05:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 07:22:57	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x5de026…
08-11 07:20:39	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x41fcf7…
08-11 07:18:55	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0x52d4e3…
08-11 06:53:49	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x0c6a74…
08-11 06:49:30	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xda0219…
08-11 06:42:39	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	Yes	SELL	13	32¢	$4	0x228483…
08-11 06:42:30	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xccc5b7…
08-11 06:41:19	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xcac874…
08-11 06:39:18	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0x6a5640…
08-11 06:12:01	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0xaac034…
08-11 06:11:34	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xd6cb56…
08-11 06:08:45	will xauusd dip to 4250 by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x1aa4dd…
08-11 06:08:10	will xauusd dip to 4250 by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x051609…
08-11 06:05:15	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	Yes	SELL	15	76¢	$12	0x5ad545…
08-11 06:04:43	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x36d721…
08-04 08:14:02	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xda0dd8…
08-04 08:12:48	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3f0935…
08-04 08:11:15	will trump say no no no during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421454	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xc12d2b…
08-04 08:10:27	will trump say no no no during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421454	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xed23f5…
08-04 08:10:17	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	Yes	BUY	18	41¢	$7	0x664cf3…
08-04 08:08:24	will trump say rural health or rural healthcare during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421450	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xdfc5a8…
08-04 08:06:47	will trump say rural health or rural healthcare during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421450	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x5fb4d4…
08-04 08:00:05	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 6	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xb678c4…
08-04 07:57:56	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 6	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xb62cb2…
07-28 06:47:45	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during fox friends appearance 20260728022316513	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x6d1479…
07-28 06:46:00	will leavitt say russia or ukraine during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550015	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x2ae09f…
07-28 06:43:36	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during fox friends appearance 20260728022316513	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x53c84a…
07-28 06:34:51	will trump say transgender during fox friends appearance 20260728022316512	Yes	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0x27802f…
07-28 06:32:09	will trump say communist or communism during fox friends appearance 20260728022316511	No	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0xe54e12…
07-28 06:29:04	will leavitt say world cup during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550020	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x7887f2…
07-28 06:27:34	will leavitt say world cup during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550020	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x4dbbf5…
07-28 06:17:39	will trump say transgender during fox friends appearance 20260728022316512	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x8a1b31…
07-28 06:15:43	will trump say transgender during fox friends appearance 20260728022316512	Yes	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0x3bd9a5…
07-28 06:10:57	will trump say transgender during fox friends appearance 20260728022316512	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x9e2769…
07-28 06:07:18	will trump say fake news during fox friends appearance 20260728022316510	No	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0xc29fdb…
07-28 06:07:03	will trump say gay during fox friends appearance 20260728022316502	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xbf9a2d…
07-28 06:06:40	will trump say fake news during fox friends appearance 20260728022316510	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xd7a578…
07-28 06:05:37	will trump say gay during fox friends appearance 20260728022316502	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x070d6e…
07-28 06:04:31	will leavitt say russia or ukraine during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550015	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x0b8288…
07-17 13:21:16	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x8d2bc0…
07-17 13:11:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x473def…
07-17 13:10:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xc26313…
07-17 13:03:13	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x4baff1…
07-17 13:02:54	will drake attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357127	No	SELL	21	49¢	$10	0x2ccf46…
07-17 12:56:58	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x21be63…
07-17 12:56:33	will drake attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357127	No	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x523033…
07-17 12:55:27	will drake attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357127	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x19d6ee…
07-17 12:43:55	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xb7750f…
07-17 12:43:46	will pep guardiola attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357139	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x9a35e7…
07-17 12:43:12	will pep guardiola attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357139	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x59f3aa…
07-17 12:24:03	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0xea0169…
07-17 12:11:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x1f44f3…
07-17 12:11:39	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xbfbc20…
07-17 12:09:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x20711a…
07-17 12:08:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xd71aec…
07-17 12:04:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xfaf4bc…
07-17 12:02:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9f1cb1…
07-17 12:01:06	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xce3224…
07-17 12:00:51	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x57e506…
07-17 11:59:36	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xbe38fd…
07-17 11:53:01	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x4857e9…
07-17 11:48:22	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x19be1c…
07-17 11:47:31	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x7a633d…
07-16 13:18:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x42b8ab…
07-16 13:18:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0x3a9b21…
07-16 13:16:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0xe4742a…
07-16 13:16:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xa00c4d…
07-16 12:33:58	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x6e4fa3…
07-16 12:32:47	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xde67d8…
07-16 12:29:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	SELL	17	21¢	$4	0x27fff3…
07-16 12:27:11	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	17	21¢	$4	0x0fee8b…
07-14 03:46:16	will elly de la cruz hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820665	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x9151e5…
07-14 03:40:20	will elly de la cruz hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820665	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x14fd6f…
07-14 03:30:13	will bobby witt jrpt hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820631	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x9c3d52…
07-14 03:29:37	will bobby witt jrpt hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820631	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x0b5ea8…
07-06 08:27:20	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xa3d61f…
07-06 08:26:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x48c787…
07-06 08:20:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x695fdf…
07-06 08:19:22	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x53b822…
07-06 08:17:26	will nflx reach 80 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x785d3d…
07-06 08:16:53	will nflx reach 80 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x2e844c…
07-06 08:06:44	will pltr reach 135 by july 6 2026	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xa13e83…
07-06 08:06:26	will pltr reach 135 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x91ddcb…
07-06 08:00:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x9a3e44…
07-06 08:00:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xb23eb9…
07-06 07:59:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xf08e79…
07-06 07:59:26	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x4530c7…
07-01 06:59:37	will the announcers say golden boot during the usa vs bosnia herzegovina fifa world cup match 20260630205154123	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x96c550…
07-01 06:58:43	will the announcers say golden boot during the usa vs bosnia herzegovina fifa world cup match 20260630205154123	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xd113e3…
07-01 06:57:41	nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x0a66e1…
07-01 06:46:13	nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xeaaf2c…
06-23 06:31:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x801939…
06-23 06:20:38	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x34fe04…
06-23 06:20:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xe01588…
06-23 06:20:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x93192b…
06-23 06:19:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x318440…
06-23 06:19:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xfe5c37…
06-23 06:19:04	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x478375…
06-23 06:18:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xf08c2d…
06-23 06:08:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x89b301…