Rural-Pickaxe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$811

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

38.2%

Resolved

153

Trades

502

lifetime

Volume

$13.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-19

last 09-19 16:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Other

53% 19% +$877

Politics

30% 29% -$42

Tech

8% 17% -$3

Sports

7% 11% -$10

Crypto

2% 33% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes		+82	$8	1¢	$1	-$7	04-30 12:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will England win on 2026-07-05?	2	$890	640	640	+0	Yes	+$378	07-06 03:04
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$870	600	600	+0	No	-$2	04-22 05:25
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	24	$546	605	705	-100	No	+$50	03-18 20:08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	21	$398	230	230	+0	Yes	$0	05-15 11:07
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	1	$390	685	0	+685	Yes	+$295	06-29 12:34
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$384	1,065	1,065	+0	No	+$0	07-12 00:13
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	9	$362	393	393	+0	No	-$2	07-06 08:33
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	1	$354	610	0	+610	Yes	+$256	06-26 13:58
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	16	$324	167	167	+0	Yes	$0	04-07 08:56
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	1	$323	680	0	+680	Yes	+$357	07-02 08:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$315	160	160	+0	Yes	+$0	04-03 04:49
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$312	160	160	+0	No	$0	04-13 10:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$311	170	170	+0	No	-$2	04-13 13:20
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?	7	$297	300	300	+0	Yes	-$5	05-08 16:12
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	1	$290	500	0	+500	Yes	+$210	06-19 14:01
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$277	160	160	+0	Yes	+$2	04-07 04:22
will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	2	$239	140	140	+0	Yes	-$1	08-19 15:53
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$235	120	120	+0	Yes	+$0	04-07 06:48
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	2	$216	200	200	+0	No	-$2	04-26 12:48
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	1	$201	490	0	+490	Yes	+$289	06-24 12:46
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?	1	$198	640	0	+640	No	-$198	07-05 08:50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$198	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-15 13:07
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-15 13:54
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	4	$196	100	100	+0	No	$0	05-15 07:16
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	8	$195	200	200	+0	No	-$2	07-06 08:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$195	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-05 07:46
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	11	$194	200	200	+0	No	-$4	05-08 15:10
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	16	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-05 08:49
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$193	100	100	+0	No	+$0	04-07 06:47
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	4	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 06:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-19 16:25:08	will space be in the headlines this week 20260927	Yes	SELL	30	25¢	$8	0x2c6005…
09-19 07:40:00	will space be in the headlines this week 20260927	Yes	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x9adb33…
09-16 12:01:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	29	11¢	$3	0x7db6fc…
09-15 18:27:30	will warsh say echo during september press conference 20260909	Yes	SELL	9	52¢	$4	0xd72018…
09-14 08:24:18	Will Warsh say "Echo" during September Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0xc5be73…
09-12 07:48:43	Will Warsh say "Echo" during September Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x933928…
09-11 12:18:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	41¢	$12	0xb6cbea…
09-11 07:27:03	Will Warsh say "Echo" during September Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x0d3f65…
08-22 05:04:42	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 22?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xb0d64a…
08-22 05:03:48	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 22?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xb743f2…
08-19 15:53:21	will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	140	85¢	$119	0xeb78fe…
08-19 15:42:54	will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	140	86¢	$120	0x6dc584…
08-17 06:55:40	will mu reach 990 by august 17 2026	No	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x22ad61…
08-17 06:52:39	will mu dip to 810 by august 17 2026	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x02350e…
08-17 06:51:52	will hood dip to 82 50 by august 17 2026	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x787e7c…
08-17 06:33:09	will mu dip to 780 by august 17 2026	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xef2d0b…
08-17 06:25:19	will mu reach 990 by august 17 2026	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2f7f6a…
08-17 06:19:39	will mu reach 1170 by august 17 2026	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x0bcbd1…
08-17 05:45:39	will hood reach 110 by august 17 2026	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x2f09ac…
08-17 05:21:09	will hood dip to 82 50 by august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xcce661…
08-17 05:20:03	will hood reach 110 by august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xf5e294…
08-17 05:13:49	will mu dip to 780 by august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xf9ded5…
08-17 05:13:22	will mu dip to 810 by august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x4f6981…
08-17 05:12:24	will mu reach 990 by august 17 2026	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xbdd349…
08-17 05:11:30	will mu reach 1170 by august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x0fb455…
08-11 07:23:04	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x81d30c…
08-11 07:22:57	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x5de026…
08-11 07:20:39	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x41fcf7…
08-11 07:18:55	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0x52d4e3…
08-11 06:53:49	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x0c6a74…
08-11 06:49:30	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xda0219…
08-11 06:43:42	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x7f12ca…
08-11 06:42:39	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	Yes	SELL	13	32¢	$4	0x228483…
08-11 06:42:30	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xccc5b7…
08-11 06:41:19	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xcac874…
08-11 06:39:18	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0x6a5640…
08-11 06:12:01	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0xaac034…
08-11 06:11:34	grok 4pt6 released by august 11 2026	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xd6cb56…
08-11 06:08:45	will xauusd dip to 4250 by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x1aa4dd…
08-11 06:08:10	will xauusd dip to 4250 by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x051609…
08-11 06:05:15	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	Yes	SELL	15	76¢	$12	0x5ad545…
08-11 06:04:43	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x36d721…
08-04 08:21:53	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0xa3a8a1…
08-04 08:14:02	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xda0dd8…
08-04 08:12:48	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3f0935…
08-04 08:11:15	will trump say no no no during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421454	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xc12d2b…
08-04 08:10:27	will trump say no no no during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421454	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xed23f5…
08-04 08:10:17	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	Yes	BUY	18	41¢	$7	0x664cf3…
08-04 08:08:24	will trump say rural health or rural healthcare during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421450	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xdfc5a8…
08-04 08:06:47	will trump say rural health or rural healthcare during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421450	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x5fb4d4…
08-04 08:00:30	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x35e8df…
08-04 08:00:05	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 6	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xb678c4…
08-04 07:57:56	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 6	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xb62cb2…
08-04 07:52:23	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x3a4bcc…
08-04 07:27:24	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x3590d3…
08-04 07:25:08	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x8f0623…
07-28 06:47:45	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during fox friends appearance 20260728022316513	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x6d1479…
07-28 06:46:00	will leavitt say russia or ukraine during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550015	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x2ae09f…
07-28 06:43:36	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during fox friends appearance 20260728022316513	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x53c84a…
07-28 06:38:37	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x6a8d72…
07-28 06:34:51	will trump say transgender during fox friends appearance 20260728022316512	Yes	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0x27802f…
07-28 06:32:09	will trump say communist or communism during fox friends appearance 20260728022316511	No	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0xe54e12…
07-28 06:29:04	will leavitt say world cup during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550020	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x7887f2…
07-28 06:27:34	will leavitt say world cup during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550020	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x4dbbf5…
07-28 06:17:39	will trump say transgender during fox friends appearance 20260728022316512	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x8a1b31…
07-28 06:15:43	will trump say transgender during fox friends appearance 20260728022316512	Yes	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0x3bd9a5…
07-28 06:10:57	will trump say transgender during fox friends appearance 20260728022316512	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x9e2769…
07-28 06:07:18	will trump say fake news during fox friends appearance 20260728022316510	No	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0xc29fdb…
07-28 06:07:03	will trump say gay during fox friends appearance 20260728022316502	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xbf9a2d…
07-28 06:06:40	will trump say fake news during fox friends appearance 20260728022316510	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xd7a578…
07-28 06:05:37	will trump say gay during fox friends appearance 20260728022316502	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x070d6e…
07-28 06:04:31	will leavitt say russia or ukraine during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550015	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x0b8288…
07-24 15:39:21	Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	4,200	0¢	$4	0x9ea205…
07-22 19:10:27	Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	2,010	0¢	$2	0xc8b4d2…
07-22 18:29:22	Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	1,630	0¢	$2	0xc016f1…
07-17 13:21:16	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x8d2bc0…
07-17 13:11:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x473def…
07-17 13:10:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xc26313…
07-17 13:03:13	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x4baff1…
07-17 13:02:54	will drake attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357127	No	SELL	21	49¢	$10	0x2ccf46…
07-17 12:56:58	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x21be63…
07-17 12:56:33	will drake attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357127	No	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x523033…
07-17 12:55:27	will drake attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357127	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x19d6ee…
07-17 12:43:55	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xb7750f…
07-17 12:43:46	will pep guardiola attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357139	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x9a35e7…
07-17 12:43:12	will pep guardiola attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357139	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x59f3aa…
07-17 12:24:03	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0xea0169…
07-17 12:15:55	Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x49f206…
07-17 12:15:25	Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x30300d…
07-17 12:11:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x1f44f3…
07-17 12:11:39	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xbfbc20…
07-17 12:09:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x20711a…
07-17 12:08:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xd71aec…
07-17 12:04:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xfaf4bc…
07-17 12:02:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9f1cb1…
07-17 12:01:06	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xce3224…
07-17 12:00:51	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x57e506…
07-17 11:59:36	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xbe38fd…
07-17 11:53:01	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x4857e9…
07-17 11:48:22	will the announcers say captain during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403322	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x19be1c…