Notable-Confidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

82.0%

Resolved

135

Trades

271

lifetime

Volume

$283

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-18 15:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 84% $-6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	3	$7	7	0	+7	Down	+$0	05-12 16:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	4	$7	4	4	+0	Up	+$1	05-11 07:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	5	$5	4	2	+2	open	—	05-17 01:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	4	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	05-16 14:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	5	$5	500	0	+500	Up	$-5	05-10 15:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	4	$3	4	1	+3	Down	+$1	05-07 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	2	$3	5	5	+0	Down	$-3	05-13 11:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	4	$3	4	2	+2	open	—	05-16 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	1	$3	38	0	+38	Down	$-3	05-13 10:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	3	$3	6	0	+6	Up	$-3	05-12 11:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	3	$3	3	0	+3	Down	+$0	05-08 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	3	$3	6	0	+6	Down	+$3	05-12 12:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	3	$3	3	0	+3	Down	+$0	05-07 14:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	3	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	05-14 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	3	$3	3	0	+3	Up	+$0	05-08 17:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$3	5	0	+5	Down	+$2	05-07 14:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-07 08:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-07 14:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-18 03:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-07 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	2	$2	4	0	+4	Up	$-2	05-12 11:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	2	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	05-16 07:05
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	2	$2	2	0	+2	Up	+$0	05-09 15:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$2	3	0	+3	Down	+$1	05-09 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	2	$2	8	0	+8	Up	+$6	05-08 06:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	1	$2	2	0	+2	Down	+$0	05-13 11:06
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	2	$2	2	0	+2	Up	+$0	05-09 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	2	$2	2	0	+2	Up	+$0	05-07 13:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	2	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	05-18 06:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 15:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x6acb91…
05-18 14:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5baf66…
05-18 13:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1b3e87…
05-18 12:03:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2092f5…
05-18 11:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7ced99…
05-18 11:41:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa68c91…
05-18 09:09:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x52b10b…
05-18 07:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x06f765…
05-18 07:03:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc6eef0…
05-18 06:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x196e26…
05-18 06:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdc3b8b…
05-18 03:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc73e09…
05-18 03:13:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x88354f…
05-18 03:09:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf996f2…
05-18 03:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x695bcf…
05-18 03:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xcbf339…
05-17 17:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9ab25b…
05-17 17:12:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd0e748…
05-17 16:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4ff10a…
05-17 16:54:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xd3f891…
05-17 16:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe57d91…
05-17 16:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3e054d…
05-17 15:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe70486…
05-17 11:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x10fcf6…
05-17 11:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x056aed…
05-17 06:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9eecca…
05-17 05:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x85b961…
05-17 05:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb8900c…
05-17 01:29:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6f515b…
05-17 01:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x234b3d…
05-17 01:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xa8b7a4…
05-17 01:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6b8a22…
05-17 01:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xcb9aaa…
05-17 01:24:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8bdb3a…
05-17 01:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x2ef423…
05-17 01:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x0dc9f4…
05-16 18:14:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x79f1b6…
05-16 18:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x17813e…
05-16 18:12:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x5f815f…
05-16 18:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x41636d…
05-16 18:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x2e49f7…
05-16 18:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xe3ad65…
05-16 17:59:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdb9c86…
05-16 17:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xe5612b…
05-16 17:53:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd3663d…
05-16 17:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x76a4a2…
05-16 17:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x0876cc…
05-16 16:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa34776…
05-16 16:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xe23ea8…
05-16 15:48:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4d6f2a…
05-16 15:02:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc0fb09…
05-16 14:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0xad6de6…
05-16 14:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xba96a3…
05-16 14:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa1b425…
05-16 14:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0x3d5f2a…
05-16 14:47:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x0c1503…
05-16 14:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x151ced…
05-16 14:45:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9dfa75…
05-16 14:39:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb3081d…
05-16 12:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf493f5…
05-16 12:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x3f5683…
05-16 12:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x3d0ca8…
05-16 12:24:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xbda923…
05-16 07:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x203c05…
05-16 07:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe44183…
05-16 07:05:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xad7627…
05-16 07:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x61868d…
05-16 06:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc99293…
05-16 06:33:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x1114d6…
05-16 06:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x96fd34…
05-16 02:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x313d9c…
05-16 00:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8c84d7…
05-16 00:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe626e6…
05-15 16:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x69d36e…
05-15 16:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xde590a…
05-15 15:33:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf744fa…
05-14 17:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa35e47…
05-14 17:09:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xb97242…
05-14 17:07:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x0482e5…
05-14 16:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x60e040…
05-14 16:04:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcfb9a3…
05-14 16:04:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x69a2c1…
05-14 16:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x82d21f…
05-13 16:33:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6cb05b…
05-13 14:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7c0183…
05-13 11:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x469636…
05-13 11:06:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xbe848f…
05-13 11:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x4786ff…
05-13 11:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xad9b06…
05-13 10:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x8bfcf1…
05-13 10:50:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x1d9d78…
05-13 10:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x363c62…
05-13 09:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe72da3…
05-13 06:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x3760e9…
05-12 16:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xb3807d…
05-12 16:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5bef8e…
05-12 16:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xda2dc3…
05-12 16:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x1322b0…
05-12 16:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	23¢	$0	0x451756…
05-12 16:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0b3e42…