Squiggly-Sensitivity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$152

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.7%

Resolved

1,300

Trades

1,903

lifetime

Volume

$5.04K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 05-17 02:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 52% -$134

Politics

3% 25% -$1

Other

2% 36% -$17

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-17).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	10	$126	77	77	+0	Yes	-$1	03-05 17:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 03:15 UTC	4	$46	39	39	+0	Down	+$6	03-05 03:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 20:20 UTC	3	$28	16	16	+0	Down	+$4	03-19 20:26
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:15 UTC	4	$23	19	8	+11	Up	-$7	03-19 22:21
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 18:15 UTC	2	$21	18	18	+0	Down	+$1	03-05 18:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 18:10 UTC	2	$21	22	19	+3	Up	+$4	03-05 18:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 18:15 UTC	3	$21	21	21	+0	Down	+$1	03-05 18:16
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:15 UTC	4	$20	27	0	+27	Up	-$20	03-19 22:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-25 20:15 UTC	2	$18	19	19	+0	Down	+$8	03-25 20:28
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 01:00 UTC	7	$17	35	35	+0	Up	-$10	03-20 01:02
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 07:15 UTC	4	$15	20	7	+13	Down	-$9	03-19 07:18
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 21:50 UTC	3	$15	20	0	+20	Down	+$5	03-19 21:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	8	$14	25	3	+22	Up	$0	05-16 22:19
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 7 249 562	2	$14	16	31	-16	No	+$4	03-05 00:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:15 UTC	2	$13	9	9	+0	Down	+$2	03-19 23:16
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 20:20 UTC	2	$13	7	7	+0	Down	+$1	03-19 20:26
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:10 UTC	2	$13	7	7	+0	Up	+$1	03-19 23:16
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	17	$13	31	30	+0	Up	$0	05-16 22:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 05:55 UTC	3	$12	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	03-24 05:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 21:20 UTC	3	$12	17	0	+17	Down	+$4	03-19 21:24
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	14	$12	46	9	+37	Up	-$1	05-16 22:15
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:15 UTC	2	$12	17	0	+17	Up	-$12	03-19 23:17
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:05 UTC	2	$12	18	0	+18	Down	+$6	03-19 23:08
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:10 UTC	2	$12	17	0	+17	Down	-$12	03-19 23:14
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:15 UTC	2	$12	13	0	+13	Down	+$1	03-19 23:17
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:45 UTC	2	$12	17	0	+17	Up	-$4	03-19 22:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:05 UTC	2	$12	16	0	+16	Down	+$4	03-19 23:09
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:55 UTC	2	$12	18	0	+18	Up	-$12	03-19 22:58
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 23:05 UTC	2	$12	20	0	+20	Down	-$2	03-19 23:09
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:40 UTC	2	$12	16	0	+16	Down	+$4	03-19 22:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 02:16:18	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xeb5f49…
05-17 02:15:42	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0x636fe8…
05-17 02:15:40	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xa4e109…
05-17 02:10:37	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xe0f143…
05-17 02:10:34	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x1b4810…
05-17 02:05:43	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xd09741…
05-17 02:05:41	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xfc488b…
05-17 02:05:40	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xa4f29e…
05-17 02:03:48	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xf36388…
05-17 02:00:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xb23a8c…
05-17 02:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x3d2b1b…
05-17 01:55:39	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x4ee459…
05-17 01:55:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x76ef0f…
05-17 01:55:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x4f303a…
05-17 01:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xbe59e6…
05-17 01:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xa7b1f7…
05-17 01:50:38	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x0c5c7e…
05-17 01:50:37	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x558e39…
05-17 01:46:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xd25029…
05-17 01:45:46	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xb10834…
05-17 01:45:43	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xafc237…
05-17 01:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x842536…
05-17 01:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x001e20…
05-17 01:41:01	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x44c58c…
05-17 01:40:59	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0x09c315…
05-17 01:40:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa21838…
05-17 01:40:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xc8e921…
05-17 01:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x94fbd7…
05-17 01:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x811265…
05-17 01:36:44	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x7919cf…
05-17 01:35:46	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x5e13b2…
05-17 01:35:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x8c045c…
05-17 01:35:42	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x4a850c…
05-17 01:35:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xf76f46…
05-17 01:35:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x706c00…
05-17 01:35:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x38ee71…
05-17 01:35:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x968c10…
05-17 01:30:54	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x5c2560…
05-17 01:30:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0099b9…
05-17 01:30:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb7bf90…
05-17 01:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x1ab00c…
05-17 01:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xf217d2…
05-17 01:26:03	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x53ef3b…
05-17 01:26:01	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0xccc9e2…
05-17 01:25:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x6c5d70…
05-17 01:25:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xb170da…
05-17 01:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xc894d2…
05-17 01:25:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xfda7b8…
05-17 01:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	40¢	$1	0x489c93…
05-17 01:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x70bc91…
05-17 01:20:41	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x65baf5…
05-17 01:20:38	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x330302…
05-17 01:20:36	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xa09e78…
05-17 01:20:34	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x6c29ef…
05-17 01:20:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd3a13f…
05-17 01:20:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x4459df…
05-17 01:15:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x283753…
05-17 01:15:47	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb85f9e…
05-17 01:15:44	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xb7102d…
05-17 01:15:44	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x7eac05…
05-17 01:15:40	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xc0bc7a…
05-17 01:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x95db95…
05-17 01:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x52cf53…
05-17 01:11:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x7d502d…
05-17 01:11:09	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x263a24…
05-17 01:11:07	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xa42493…
05-17 01:10:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x4ab87d…
05-17 01:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x7c8160…
05-17 01:10:34	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x61f0c6…
05-17 01:10:30	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xb6b2a5…
05-17 01:05:52	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe20195…
05-17 01:05:50	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x4b5218…
05-17 01:05:47	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xff294a…
05-17 01:05:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf369cf…
05-17 01:05:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x67ffe1…
05-17 01:05:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x0654af…
05-17 01:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x650da2…
05-17 01:05:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x6b0fcf…
05-17 01:00:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xc22bbb…
05-17 01:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x89e2fe…
05-17 01:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x664a19…
05-17 01:00:37	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc9b681…
05-17 01:00:34	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x8b13cc…
05-17 01:00:30	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xa1958d…
05-17 00:55:48	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xfc0539…
05-17 00:55:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4299e1…
05-17 00:55:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x125db1…
05-17 00:55:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9dd3ad…
05-17 00:55:33	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x811168…
05-17 00:50:54	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x6c42c4…
05-17 00:50:53	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x3f2647…
05-17 00:50:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x25c808…
05-17 00:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xe4fb8e…
05-17 00:50:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xaa0c69…
05-17 00:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xc3a3ae…
05-17 00:45:48	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x7c9e96…
05-17 00:45:45	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x9e504c…
05-17 00:45:43	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x9c66ee…
05-17 00:45:41	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x6062a7…
05-17 00:45:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x63f588…