Lighthearted-Substitution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.93K

Unrealized P&L

-$88

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

419

Trades

979

lifetime

Volume

$51.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

$958

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-26 16:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Other

62% 58% -$1,292

Crypto

34% 66% -$905

Politics

2% 0% -$6

Sports

2% 33% -$733

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 159 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		-977	-$869	98¢	$-958	-$88	04-29 20:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cs2 ts7 b8 2026 03 07	12	$6.0K	4,432	4,432	+0	Spirit	-$21	03-07 21:46
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO5) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs	2	$2.8K	1,939	1,939	+0	Legacy	+$543	09-13 11:20
mwoh cze den 2026 02 17	2	$2.2K	1,281	1,281	+0	Czechia	+$156	02-17 17:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:25 UTC	4	$1.8K	2,138	2,138	+0	Down	-$188	08-03 07:28
cs2 ast10 ts7 2026 03 13	1	$1.7K	2,125	0	+2,125	Astralis	-$1,700	03-13 16:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 22:05 UTC	2	$1.6K	2,621	0	+2,621	Up	-$1,600	08-04 22:05
mwoh can cze 2026 02 18	2	$1.4K	777	777	+0	Canada	+$193	02-18 18:32
cs2 tyloo fal2 2026 03 22	3	$1.1K	604	604	+0	Team Falcons	+$74	03-22 13:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:50 UTC	2	$1000	2,019	0	+2,019	Down	+$1,019	08-03 07:51
cs2 g2 aur1 2026 03 09	2	$981	682	682	+0	Aurora Gaming	+$381	03-09 21:25
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$869	0	977	-977	open	—	04-29 20:08
lol kt bro2 2026 01 25	2	$706	386	386	+0	KT Rolster	+$65	01-25 14:15
lol bro2 drx 2026 01 28	2	$665	646	646	+0	DRX	-$6	01-26 15:53
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	1	$610	1,220	0	+1,220	Leviatán Esports	-$610	05-15 18:38
cs2 mouz hero 2026 03 06	2	$609	309	309	+0	MOUZ	+$9	03-06 21:05
atp geerts michals 2026 02 17	2	$603	405	405	+0	Geerts	+$206	02-19 09:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 21:50 UTC	3	$596	619	379	+241	Down	-$74	08-04 21:51
dota2 ty navi 2026 09 27	3	$531	278	278	+0	Team Yandex	+$11	09-27 15:02
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$518	268	268	+0	open	—	09-21 15:26
cs2 ast10 faze 2026 03 09	5	$511	416	416	+0	Astralis	-$189	03-09 18:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 02:45 UTC	3	$500	14,414	0	+14,414	Down	-$500	07-04 02:50
dota2 boombo ts8 2026 08 22	3	$488	274	274	+0	Team Spirit	+$50	08-22 14:54
lol jdg tes 2026 02 24	2	$485	302	302	+0	JD Gaming	+$117	02-24 10:25
dota2 aur1 gl 2026 09 24	5	$481	272	272	+0	Aurora	+$13	09-24 14:57
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton	4	$452	236	236	+0	Ben Shelton	+$5	05-25 18:11
cs2 aur1 vit 2026 09 20 game3	2	$422	216	216	+0	Vitality	+$8	09-20 17:45
will ethereum dip to 3000 january 5 11	4	$412	273	273	+0	No	+$12	01-10 06:12
dota2 lgd ty 2026 09 26	3	$403	204	204	+0	Team Yandex	+$5	09-26 14:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 15:45 UTC	2	$394	246	246	+0	Down	+$74	08-10 15:48
will the price of solana be between 130 140 on january 12	2	$365	258	258	+0	No	-$35	01-11 21:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:39:48	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Spirit	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0x56bdab…
10-26 16:38:02	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	FURIA	BUY	74	80¢	$59	0xe05866…
10-26 16:10:38	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Spirit	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x5ba082…
10-26 16:03:38	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Yandex	SELL	63	98¢	$61	0x030b6e…
10-26 16:00:09	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Liquid	SELL	9	17¢	$1	0xb7d55b…
10-26 15:59:51	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Yandex	BUY	63	83¢	$52	0x32e7b4…
10-26 15:52:26	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Liquid	BUY	9	29¢	$2	0x59992a…
10-26 06:25:26	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	BetBoom Team	SELL	22	36¢	$8	0x5c1d57…
10-25 18:49:59	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B	PARIVISION	BUY	48	96¢	$46	0x77637f…
10-25 18:43:11	cs2 bb3 navi 2026 10 26	BetBoom Team	BUY	22	42¢	$9	0xbd9e95…
10-25 16:42:27	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)	Natus Vincere	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0xb0a8bf…
10-25 15:21:36	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)	Natus Vincere	BUY	54	69¢	$37	0xd47965…
10-25 11:33:36	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x3ddf5e…
10-25 11:07:53	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x15bc04…
10-24 20:32:47	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x3c84f1…
10-24 20:28:35	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x0db463…
10-24 20:28:17	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xce27c5…
10-24 20:27:57	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x77374e…
10-24 20:21:33	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xa13f6d…
10-24 20:16:50	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xa8e6a4…
10-24 20:03:32	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Merab Dvalishvili	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x8b5ff7…
10-24 19:51:51	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Merab Dvalishvili	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x367f8b…
10-24 13:30:39	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Yandex	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x44e0fc…
10-24 12:28:26	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Yandex	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x96288a…
10-24 11:57:17	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Yandex	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa94ee4…
10-24 11:57:03	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Spirit	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0x33785a…
10-24 11:46:59	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Yandex	BUY	19	89¢	$17	0x038196…
10-24 11:46:03	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Spirit	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x47f61d…
10-24 10:51:53	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Spirit	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0x262437…
10-24 10:44:36	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Spirit	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4e0db6…
10-24 10:20:11	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	TheMongolz	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x3017f9…
10-24 10:14:12	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	TheMongolz	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xb26f88…
10-24 09:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe0d7dc…
10-24 09:32:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc45956…
10-24 09:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xb63e22…
10-24 09:20:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x63bd94…
10-24 09:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x4f821a…
10-24 09:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x7f99ed…
10-24 09:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x3345bc…
10-24 09:10:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-24 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf56edd…
10-23 10:48:05	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xcaa267…
10-23 09:31:47	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x9cf7ce…
10-23 09:27:12	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	83¢	$13	0x6f6e6f…
10-23 09:08:11	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	17	80¢	$14	0x017b9b…
10-22 19:48:36	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	75¢	$13	0xe66f7d…
10-18 14:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x16f6ed…
10-18 14:00:57	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs	Team Falcons	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0x1a79d4…
10-18 12:46:12	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs	Team Falcons	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xf71937…
10-17 20:12:36	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs	BetBoom Team	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x1e1af4…
10-17 20:07:44	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs	BetBoom Team	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x33290f…
10-17 17:29:29	cs2 fal2 bb3 2026 10 17	Team Falcons	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x5550ae…
10-17 17:15:06	cs2 fal2 bb3 2026 10 17	Team Falcons	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x667f25…
10-17 17:14:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:10 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc9bf2a…
10-17 17:10:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x90727a…
10-17 17:09:57	cs2 fal2 bb3 2026 10 17	Team Falcons	SELL	5	69¢	$4	0xace6dd…
10-17 16:47:53	cs2 fal2 bb3 2026 10 17	Team Falcons	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x551a65…
10-11 19:23:21	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0xd27fe6…
10-11 19:17:10	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x342398…
10-11 13:33:09	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Aurora Gaming	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x38eddc…
10-11 12:17:28	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 10 11	Aurora Gaming	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x077913…
10-10 17:38:07	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	MOUZ	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x677ba6…
10-10 16:48:43	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Vitality	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x617db8…
10-10 16:12:43	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner	PARIVISION	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xa0ffb9…
10-10 16:00:24	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x376948…
10-10 15:55:45	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	MOUZ	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd9c537…
10-10 15:54:28	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Vitality	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xc7f6bc…
10-10 15:41:19	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xdd7b6a…
10-10 15:38:49	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x10e3d6…
10-10 14:47:46	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	SELL	67	88¢	$59	0x7f07de…
10-10 13:46:42	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	67	86¢	$58	0xd811fe…
10-10 11:32:22	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xe4f592…
10-10 10:55:12	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x45db15…
10-09 19:25:49	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Spirit	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x23e8bc…
10-09 18:54:56	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Spirit	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x76019d…
10-09 17:57:56	dota2 1win pari 2026 10 09	PARIVISION	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x0a130a…
10-09 17:55:11	dota2 1win pari 2026 10 09	PARIVISION	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0x804483…
10-09 17:44:29	Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	SELL	63	84¢	$53	0xf75611…
10-09 17:32:02	Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	63	66¢	$41	0x03b65f…
10-09 11:47:13	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xdf044a…
10-09 11:12:30	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	Team Spirit	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x44dce7…
10-09 10:13:58	dota2 ts8 aur1 2026 10 09 game1	Team Spirit	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xb06eb7…
10-09 09:58:36	cs2 1win aur1 2026 10 09	Aurora Gaming	SELL	109	97¢	$105	0x0ffa1b…
10-09 09:50:07	Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Aurora Gaming	BUY	109	94¢	$102	0x787484…
10-09 09:25:36	Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner	Aurora Gaming	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x4850a3…
10-09 08:50:57	Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner	Aurora Gaming	BUY	39	87¢	$34	0x54aa53…
09-30 14:06:41	dota2 ts8 1win 2026 09 30	Team Spirit	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x36acd3…
09-30 13:28:38	dota2 ts8 1win 2026 09 30	Team Spirit	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0xcd1f28…
09-29 19:00:47	dota2 liquid yb1 2026 09 29	Yakult Brothers	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x56af12…
09-29 17:51:24	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 17:45 UTC	Down	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x9a9d33…
09-29 17:50:53	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x511a0f…
09-29 17:43:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xa25d60…
09-27 15:02:05	dota2 ty navi 2026 09 27	Team Yandex	SELL	278	98¢	$271	0xbdea42…
09-27 13:37:33	dota2 ty navi 2026 09 27	Team Yandex	BUY	263	94¢	$247	0x47a291…
09-27 12:31:57	dota2 ty navi 2026 09 27	Team Yandex	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0x2c2ed4…
09-27 10:41:41	dota2 lgd navi 2026 09 27	Natus Vincere	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x7c41cb…
09-27 10:22:00	dota2 lgd navi 2026 09 27 game2	LGD Gaming	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x6c8164…
09-27 10:00:20	dota2 lgd navi 2026 09 27 game2	LGD Gaming	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x1ceef2…
09-27 09:53:39	dota2 lgd navi 2026 09 27 game2	LGD Gaming	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x0a8ebb…
09-27 09:19:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 09:15 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xaba51d…
09-27 09:18:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xfb5502…