Lumpy-Efficiency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$81

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

31.3%

Resolved

Trades

609

lifetime

Volume

$40.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 08:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

97% 50% $-81

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 4?	5	$788	448	448	+0	open	—	05-04 17:41
si above 100 jan 2026	13	$781	613	613	+0	open	—	01-26 00:47
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$750	630	330	+300	open	—	03-23 13:22
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $106 on May 4?	5	$742	518	518	+0	No	$-149	05-04 10:09
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	6	$597	330	330	+0	open	—	06-01 13:33
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	5	$554	342	342	+0	open	—	05-29 03:24
will wti reach 135 by april 6 2026	8	$553	300	299	+1	open	—	04-10 16:56
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 13 518 745 483	3	$549	300	300	+0	open	—	03-13 17:59
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?	3	$531	349	349	+0	open	—	04-30 18:35
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	9	$514	363	363	+0	open	—	05-20 14:58
si up or down on january 27 2026	8	$507	286	286	+0	open	—	01-27 17:40
bitcoin above 94k on january 19	15	$507	280	280	+0	open	—	01-19 16:25
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	6	$497	344	344	+0	No	$-1	05-08 08:55
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on April 29?	3	$476	300	300	+0	open	—	04-29 10:12
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on April 27?	2	$447	300	297	+3	open	—	04-27 15:11
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	10	$429	300	300	+0	open	—	02-18 12:34
spx opens up or down on march 16 2026	6	$428	250	250	+0	open	—	03-16 12:28
spx up or down on february 23 2026	2	$419	364	364	+0	open	—	02-23 10:20
will spy reach 765 by june 1 2026	4	$395	247	247	+0	open	—	06-04 15:17
spx opens up or down on february 23 2026	5	$388	210	210	+0	open	—	02-23 13:32
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 5?	7	$369	253	253	+0	Down	$-6	05-05 13:32
nvda close above 190 on march 17 2026	5	$367	200	200	+0	open	—	03-17 19:38
amzn up or down on april 21 2026	4	$360	210	209	+1	open	—	04-21 13:35
wti up or down on april 9 2026	6	$357	347	198	+148	open	—	04-09 18:06
ndx up or down on january 14 2026	8	$355	200	200	+0	open	—	01-14 17:31
nvda close above 205 on april 22 2026	5	$354	200	199	+1	open	—	04-22 14:37
dax up or down on february 12 2026	4	$348	200	200	+0	open	—	02-12 16:08
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $315?	3	$346	250	250	+0	open	—	05-29 13:38
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 7?	2	$342	200	200	+0	No	+$54	05-07 15:08
will sp 500 spx hit 6300 low in march 2026	5	$340	299	299	+0	open	—	03-28 01:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 08:35:33	mu up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	150	86¢	$129	0x54c27c…
06-08 07:28:40	dax up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xc18ff1…
06-08 04:45:39	spy closes above 750 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	137	88¢	$121	0xe6558e…
06-05 12:54:49	mu up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0x4529ff…
06-05 12:09:27	mu up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x699842…
06-05 11:21:18	nik up or down on june 5 2026	Down	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0xffe3b7…
06-05 03:22:54	nik up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	41	91¢	$37	0x37dbdf…
06-04 15:17:34	will spy reach 765 by june 1 2026	No	SELL	107	90¢	$96	0xd93393…
06-04 15:11:40	will spy reach 765 by june 1 2026	No	SELL	140	91¢	$128	0x34ea2b…
06-04 13:27:13	mu up or down on june 4 2026	Down	BUY	150	89¢	$134	0xa72044…
06-03 13:46:06	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026?	No	BUY	47	70¢	$33	0x334e93…
06-03 13:44:19	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xa6aa87…
06-03 13:42:34	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 3?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x7543fb…
06-02 15:03:38	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xc56aee…
06-02 10:45:15	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xf4bc48…
06-02 03:25:51	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x8809c6…
06-01 13:33:09	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	SELL	305	96¢	$292	0xed97da…
06-01 13:32:16	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xc4ce2b…
06-01 12:27:44	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xf6a445…
06-01 08:27:59	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 1?	Up	BUY	159	83¢	$132	0xfbfbaa…
06-01 05:22:13	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	BUY	125	85¢	$106	0x894457…
06-01 03:20:41	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xe3fd74…
06-01 03:20:14	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xaf1414…
05-29 16:00:23	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $164 in May?	No	BUY	140	94¢	$132	0xd3a9c1…
05-29 13:51:20	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 29?	No	BUY	112	82¢	$92	0x72e93d…
05-29 13:38:37	Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $315?	No	SELL	250	55¢	$138	0x127660…
05-29 09:29:35	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 25 2026?	No	SELL	60	77¢	$46	0xc8ef87…
05-29 03:32:44	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $212 in May?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x9b7298…
05-29 03:24:29	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	SELL	121	79¢	$96	0x5c6006…
05-28 15:59:44	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	26	80¢	$21	0x968fcc…
05-28 15:34:06	Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $315?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xcfaa5e…
05-28 15:25:17	Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $315?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xe4aea7…
05-28 15:03:47	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	SELL	221	84¢	$186	0x3818de…
05-28 08:04:38	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	SELL	67	65¢	$44	0x56a62d…
05-28 03:58:16	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	67	80¢	$54	0x085179…
05-28 03:31:03	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 25 2026?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xb1480e…
05-27 14:08:20	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	66	80¢	$52	0xe19fe9…
05-27 14:04:23	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	250	80¢	$199	0x6575ca…
05-27 13:36:16	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	SELL	23	53¢	$12	0x521a47…
05-27 13:36:11	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	SELL	150	53¢	$80	0x023025…
05-27 13:17:35	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	167	88¢	$147	0xc39404…
05-27 09:43:23	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x335974…
05-27 08:52:59	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 27?	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x0f0e4f…
05-27 03:35:04	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 27?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x3f0a60…
05-26 18:08:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 26?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xb70d96…
05-26 17:42:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd26c81…
05-26 09:44:15	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	81	89¢	$72	0xdd6ee0…
05-26 09:35:06	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	9	73¢	$7	0xf0aaab…
05-26 09:30:24	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	23	70¢	$16	0xcbe588…
05-26 09:25:49	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xd56742…
05-26 09:22:31	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x0ae3aa…
05-26 09:22:26	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	34	73¢	$25	0xdfd21b…
05-26 09:21:11	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x4fe5fa…
05-26 04:19:45	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26?	No	BUY	240	69¢	$166	0xaae2ba…
05-26 04:14:19	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26?	No	SELL	195	49¢	$96	0xec7b54…
05-26 04:13:48	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xe05f36…
05-26 03:26:59	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xba529f…
05-26 02:17:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xd46d4a…
05-25 02:48:21	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x762261…
05-22 03:21:47	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 22?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x370311…
05-22 03:02:27	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 22?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x4a8dcc…
05-21 04:05:05	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 21?	Up	BUY	158	77¢	$122	0x51dde2…
05-20 15:00:44	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 20?	Up	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x3b80be…
05-20 14:58:08	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	No	SELL	149	59¢	$88	0x0baf6f…
05-20 14:33:29	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	No	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x43c1de…
05-20 14:33:01	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x01945f…
05-20 14:26:06	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	No	BUY	59	71¢	$42	0x0f0487…
05-20 14:24:27	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	No	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x5cad8b…
05-20 14:24:04	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xcf353f…
05-20 14:20:57	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	No	SELL	151	66¢	$100	0x22b287…
05-20 14:17:23	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	No	SELL	49	68¢	$33	0x79bb07…
05-20 08:33:59	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $107 on May 20?	No	BUY	103	87¢	$89	0xe86044…
05-20 05:04:07	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xa72d8e…
05-19 13:34:40	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 19?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x4d1d68…
05-19 03:30:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $106 on May 19?	No	BUY	245	81¢	$198	0xf9e606…
05-18 18:09:33	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	No	SELL	101	81¢	$82	0x98f426…
05-18 04:45:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18?	No	BUY	101	74¢	$75	0xc688e6…
05-18 04:33:58	Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	37	91¢	$33	0x7eb0a2…
05-15 11:52:33	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $235?	No	SELL	108	70¢	$76	0x6eddb7…
05-15 01:11:10	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 15?	No	BUY	102	83¢	$85	0x6a34a3…
05-15 01:09:11	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $235?	No	SELL	92	30¢	$27	0x4956d0…
05-14 13:51:56	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $235?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x5e29b1…
05-14 13:51:35	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $240?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x3720e7…
05-14 13:42:28	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on May 14?	No	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x8de11a…
05-14 13:42:26	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on May 14?	No	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x5227f9…
05-13 17:45:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on May 14?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xe5422b…
05-12 13:55:47	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 12?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x01378d…
05-12 13:50:08	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on May 12?	No	SELL	105	72¢	$76	0xa8d0d5…
05-12 13:49:52	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on May 12?	No	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0x7412bf…
05-12 03:18:45	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0xf0d5ea…
05-11 17:38:50	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 12?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x5df4f1…
05-11 16:51:49	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on May 12?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xf5447c…
05-11 15:05:27	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on May 12?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x60b230…
05-11 14:20:58	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 11?	No	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0x60a85f…
05-11 06:45:07	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 11?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$165	0xcbf90e…
05-08 08:57:27	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	229	86¢	$197	0x5aa530…
05-08 08:55:35	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	No	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0x1abddc…
05-08 08:53:22	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	No	SELL	129	81¢	$104	0x8a1338…
05-07 16:24:03	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x3792f7…
05-07 16:19:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	120	80¢	$96	0xfc0a17…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	116	$7.80K	1,398	06-08 15:29
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	111	$1.12M	2,809	06-08 19:23
Tough-Accuracy 0x2ac9…dbba	76	$11.9K	201	06-08 14:59
(anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8	74	$7.95K	298	06-08 11:15
Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c	65	$53.5K	1,471	06-08 15:30
Wobbly-Order 0xa540…0b43	63	$47.9K	1,664	06-08 18:44
Mountainous-Elongation 0x5fe5…8b99	54	$5.68K	1,600	04-12 04:37
Close-Breastplate 0x2651…3471	52	$192.6K	683	06-08 12:07