Lumpy-Efficiency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$81

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

31.3%

Resolved

Trades

685

lifetime

Volume

$45.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-01 02:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

96% 50% $-81

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 4?	5	$788	448	448	+0	open	—	05-04 17:41
si above 100 jan 2026	13	$781	613	613	+0	open	—	01-26 00:47
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$750	630	330	+300	open	—	03-23 13:22
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $106 on May 4?	5	$742	518	518	+0	No	$-149	05-04 10:09
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	6	$597	330	330	+0	open	—	06-01 13:33
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	2	$589	370	370	+0	open	—	06-18 16:32
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	5	$554	342	342	+0	open	—	05-29 03:24
will wti reach 135 by april 6 2026	8	$553	300	299	+1	open	—	04-10 16:56
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 13 518 745 483	3	$549	300	300	+0	open	—	03-13 17:59
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?	3	$531	349	349	+0	open	—	04-30 18:35
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	9	$514	363	363	+0	open	—	05-20 14:58
si up or down on january 27 2026	8	$507	286	286	+0	open	—	01-27 17:40
bitcoin above 94k on january 19	15	$507	280	280	+0	open	—	01-19 16:25
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	6	$497	344	344	+0	No	$-1	05-08 08:55
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on April 29?	3	$476	300	300	+0	open	—	04-29 10:12
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on April 27?	2	$447	300	297	+3	open	—	04-27 15:11
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	10	$429	300	300	+0	open	—	02-18 12:34
spx opens up or down on march 16 2026	6	$428	250	250	+0	open	—	03-16 12:28
spx up or down on february 23 2026	2	$419	364	364	+0	open	—	02-23 10:20
will spy reach 765 by june 1 2026	4	$395	247	247	+0	open	—	06-04 15:17
spx opens up or down on february 23 2026	5	$388	210	210	+0	open	—	02-23 13:32
will spy reach 750 by june 8 2026	4	$386	224	224	+0	open	—	06-12 15:14
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 5?	7	$369	253	253	+0	Down	$-6	05-05 13:32
nvda close above 190 on march 17 2026	5	$367	200	200	+0	open	—	03-17 19:38
amzn up or down on april 21 2026	4	$360	210	209	+1	open	—	04-21 13:35
wti up or down on april 9 2026	6	$357	347	198	+148	open	—	04-09 18:06
ndx up or down on january 14 2026	8	$355	200	200	+0	open	—	01-14 17:31
nvda close above 205 on april 22 2026	5	$354	200	199	+1	open	—	04-22 14:37
dax up or down on february 12 2026	4	$348	200	200	+0	open	—	02-12 16:08
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $315?	3	$346	250	250	+0	open	—	05-29 13:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 02:58:49	aapl close above 280 on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	178	89¢	$158	0x2e7909…
07-01 02:33:53	ewy up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x8ef4b2…
06-29 14:05:52	mu above 1040 on june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0xf879e1…
06-29 13:15:37	mu above 1040 on june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x26385a…
06-29 08:53:47	meta up or down on june 29 2026	Up	BUY	110	75¢	$83	0x96048b…
06-26 01:53:10	will mu reach 1320 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0xd29e8f…
06-26 01:52:16	will mu reach 1320 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x698b84…
06-26 01:50:43	will mu reach 1320 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x3eb386…
06-25 13:46:34	will ewy reach 226 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	127	77¢	$98	0x83bbd2…
06-25 13:05:47	ewy up or down on june 25 2026	Up	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0xdd246d…
06-25 13:05:19	ewy up or down on june 25 2026	Up	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xb3f75c…
06-25 02:29:41	will ewy reach 221 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	51	52¢	$27	0x50b9c7…
06-24 22:51:31	will ewy reach 221 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xccf085…
06-24 22:13:19	will mu dip to 960 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	109	90¢	$97	0x502e0b…
06-24 21:59:02	ewy up or down on june 25 2026	Up	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x5de47b…
06-24 21:55:07	will ewy reach 225 by june 22 2026	No	SELL	132	45¢	$59	0x5e5433…
06-24 15:10:10	will ewy reach 226 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	143	93¢	$133	0xb3e6dd…
06-23 14:11:16	rut up or down on june 23 2026	Down	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xd72f21…
06-23 14:09:26	rut up or down on june 23 2026	Down	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x6b08d0…
06-23 14:01:58	hood up or down on june 23 2026	Down	SELL	16	59¢	$9	0xd08406…
06-23 14:01:37	hood up or down on june 23 2026	Down	SELL	84	59¢	$50	0xd25306…
06-23 11:41:07	hood up or down on june 23 2026	Down	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x5495c8…
06-23 11:16:49	will ewy reach 225 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	132	80¢	$106	0xec50cc…
06-23 11:10:22	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x38840e…
06-23 09:46:17	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xf869e1…
06-23 09:46:17	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xa25d2e…
06-23 08:49:29	will ewy reach 226 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xc9a30a…
06-23 08:49:22	will ewy reach 226 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	63	78¢	$49	0xf3e07e…
06-23 08:47:28	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x219aa3…
06-23 02:26:40	spy closes above 750 on june 23 2026	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x516a9a…
06-22 15:32:43	mu up or down on june 22 2026	Up	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xf65ef7…
06-22 14:44:37	mu up or down on june 22 2026	Up	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xa5cdf0…
06-22 07:29:29	spy closes above 750 on june 22 2026	No	SELL	185	85¢	$156	0x26b6f8…
06-22 03:32:11	nik up or down on june 22 2026	Up	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x012e8d…
06-22 03:11:44	spy closes above 750 on june 22 2026	No	BUY	185	84¢	$154	0xc23beb…
06-22 02:40:53	nik up or down on june 22 2026	Up	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x6b0af8…
06-18 16:32:47	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Up	SELL	370	78¢	$289	0x17b952…
06-18 15:11:52	mu above 1060 on june 19 2026	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x9c62d1…
06-18 15:11:38	mu above 1050 on june 19 2026	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xff46a8…
06-18 15:11:26	mu above 1020 on june 19 2026	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xde9fd0…
06-18 11:13:31	will mu dip to 960 by june 15 2026	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x3364ff…
06-18 10:56:05	meta up or down on june 18 2026	Up	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0xfb473b…
06-18 03:55:11	mu up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x67c08c…
06-18 03:54:19	mu up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0x9aea42…
06-18 02:27:37	meta up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	80	77¢	$62	0x8148bc…
06-18 02:27:29	meta up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x7447b5…
06-18 02:23:38	nik up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x83db06…
06-18 02:23:28	nik up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	42	94¢	$40	0xb37906…
06-17 13:54:58	spy closes above 755 on june 17 2026	No	SELL	14	72¢	$10	0x430995…
06-17 13:54:05	spy closes above 755 on june 17 2026	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x9ecc31…
06-17 13:52:28	spy closes above 755 on june 17 2026	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x466259…
06-17 13:33:47	spy closes above 755 on june 17 2026	No	BUY	14	77¢	$10	0x58d718…
06-17 13:31:25	spy closes above 755 on june 17 2026	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xc839f0…
06-17 07:09:07	bnb updown 4h 1781668800	Up	SELL	42	85¢	$35	0x30b9ce…
06-17 07:09:05	bnb updown 4h 1781668800	Up	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x7428de…
06-17 07:06:08	bnb updown 4h 1781668800	Up	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xc0a4bd…
06-17 07:06:07	bnb updown 4h 1781668800	Up	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0x01b097…
06-17 04:34:07	bnb updown 4h 1781668800	Up	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x97c35b…
06-16 03:17:18	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Up	BUY	370	81¢	$300	0x1172da…
06-15 16:32:42	spacex ipo closing share price updown on second day 20260608224427017	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x478fc4…
06-15 06:09:19	spacex ipo open updown on second day 20260608180600456	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xec60c8…
06-15 06:09:13	spacex ipo open updown on second day 20260608180600456	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x7e96b1…
06-15 05:53:01	spacex ipo open updown on second day 20260608180600456	Up	BUY	32	85¢	$27	0x1733fb…
06-15 05:40:37	spacex ipo open updown on second day 20260608180600456	Up	BUY	48	85¢	$41	0x5c2b6f…
06-15 02:52:51	spacex ipo open updown on second day 20260608180600456	Up	BUY	165	90¢	$148	0x297c55…
06-15 02:25:52	spacex ipo open updown on second day 20260608180600456	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x0fa7f4…
06-14 22:26:43	spx opens up or down on june 15 2026	Up	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x513ce9…
06-12 15:14:34	will spy reach 750 by june 8 2026	No	SELL	224	85¢	$189	0x217f50…
06-12 13:45:27	will spy reach 750 by june 8 2026	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xa3ad12…
06-12 13:40:57	will spy reach 750 by june 8 2026	No	BUY	74	88¢	$65	0xe64ddd…
06-12 09:34:48	dax up or down on june 12 2026	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$21	0xe137f7…
06-12 03:20:00	will spy reach 750 by june 8 2026	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x49de0f…
06-12 01:57:40	dax up or down on june 12 2026	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x6ecb06…
06-11 13:59:25	rklb up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x910c41…
06-11 10:32:57	ewy up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xe2be02…
06-11 10:29:48	rklb up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xe717b5…
06-08 08:35:33	mu up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	150	86¢	$129	0x54c27c…
06-08 07:28:40	dax up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xc18ff1…
06-08 04:45:39	spy closes above 750 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	137	88¢	$121	0xe6558e…
06-05 12:54:49	mu up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0x4529ff…
06-05 12:09:27	mu up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x699842…
06-05 11:21:18	nik up or down on june 5 2026	Down	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0xffe3b7…
06-05 03:22:54	nik up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	41	91¢	$37	0x37dbdf…
06-04 15:17:34	will spy reach 765 by june 1 2026	No	SELL	107	90¢	$96	0xd93393…
06-04 15:11:40	will spy reach 765 by june 1 2026	No	SELL	140	91¢	$128	0x34ea2b…
06-04 13:27:13	mu up or down on june 4 2026	Down	BUY	150	89¢	$134	0xa72044…
06-03 13:46:06	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026?	No	BUY	47	70¢	$33	0x334e93…
06-03 13:44:19	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xa6aa87…
06-03 13:42:34	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 3?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x7543fb…
06-02 15:03:38	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xc56aee…
06-02 10:45:15	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xf4bc48…
06-02 03:25:51	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x8809c6…
06-01 13:33:09	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	SELL	305	96¢	$292	0xed97da…
06-01 13:32:16	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xc4ce2b…
06-01 12:27:44	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xf6a445…
06-01 08:27:59	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 1?	Up	BUY	159	83¢	$132	0xfbfbaa…
06-01 05:22:13	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	BUY	125	85¢	$106	0x894457…
06-01 03:20:41	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xe3fd74…
06-01 03:20:14	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xaf1414…
05-29 16:00:23	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $164 in May?	No	BUY	140	94¢	$132	0xd3a9c1…