Lumpy-Efficiency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$81

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

31.3%

Resolved

Trades

789

lifetime

Volume

$52.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 11:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

96% 50% $-81

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	9	$877	749	606	+143	open	—	07-10 05:06
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 4?	5	$788	448	448	+0	open	—	05-04 17:41
si above 100 jan 2026	13	$781	613	613	+0	open	—	01-26 00:47
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$750	630	330	+300	open	—	03-23 13:22
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $106 on May 4?	5	$742	518	518	+0	No	$-149	05-04 10:09
will mu dip to 750 by july 20 2026	2	$640	426	426	+0	open	—	07-20 19:24
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	6	$597	330	330	+0	open	—	06-01 13:33
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	2	$589	370	370	+0	open	—	06-18 16:32
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	5	$554	342	342	+0	open	—	05-29 03:24
will wti reach 135 by april 6 2026	8	$553	300	299	+1	open	—	04-10 16:56
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 13 518 745 483	3	$549	300	300	+0	open	—	03-13 17:59
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?	3	$531	349	349	+0	open	—	04-30 18:35
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	9	$514	363	363	+0	open	—	05-20 14:58
si up or down on january 27 2026	8	$507	286	286	+0	open	—	01-27 17:40
bitcoin above 94k on january 19	15	$507	280	280	+0	open	—	01-19 16:25
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	6	$497	344	344	+0	No	$-1	05-08 08:55
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on April 29?	3	$476	300	300	+0	open	—	04-29 10:12
will xagusd dip to 56 in july 2026	2	$469	427	427	+0	open	—	07-08 08:17
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on April 27?	2	$447	300	297	+3	open	—	04-27 15:11
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	10	$429	300	300	+0	open	—	02-18 12:34
spx opens up or down on march 16 2026	6	$428	250	250	+0	open	—	03-16 12:28
spx up or down on february 23 2026	2	$419	364	364	+0	open	—	02-23 10:20
will spy reach 765 by june 1 2026	4	$395	247	247	+0	open	—	06-04 15:17
spx opens up or down on february 23 2026	5	$388	210	210	+0	open	—	02-23 13:32
will spy reach 750 by june 8 2026	4	$386	224	224	+0	open	—	06-12 15:14
wti closes above 82 on july 16 2026	5	$372	200	200	+0	open	—	07-16 17:38
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 5?	7	$369	253	253	+0	Down	$-6	05-05 13:32
nvda close above 190 on march 17 2026	5	$367	200	200	+0	open	—	03-17 19:38
amzn up or down on april 21 2026	4	$360	210	209	+1	open	—	04-21 13:35
wti up or down on april 9 2026	6	$357	347	198	+148	open	—	04-09 18:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 11:00:22	mu up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xd40cbe…
07-21 03:59:42	mu up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	150	85¢	$127	0x8c5a7e…
07-21 03:54:51	mu up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xbedbf2…
07-21 03:46:06	will ewy reach 168 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	73	90¢	$66	0x23c4dd…
07-21 03:17:42	will mu dip to 780 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xaf3d23…
07-20 19:24:07	will mu dip to 750 by july 20 2026	No	SELL	426	79¢	$337	0xc109fb…
07-20 19:23:19	mu up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	135	77¢	$104	0x177d4f…
07-20 19:11:57	mu up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	43	91¢	$39	0x0e525a…
07-20 10:47:40	mu up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xf28cbb…
07-20 10:24:39	mu up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	26	83¢	$22	0x7534fc…
07-20 10:19:52	will mu dip to 750 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	426	71¢	$304	0x56f83a…
07-20 09:20:31	mu up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	45	75¢	$34	0x8cfe7b…
07-20 09:17:52	mu up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0xddc233…
07-20 09:17:52	mu up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	75	83¢	$62	0xcf3d5c…
07-20 08:15:16	spy closes above 750 on july 20 2026	No	SELL	116	86¢	$100	0x6808b0…
07-20 05:11:34	spy closes above 750 on july 20 2026	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xf409ce…
07-20 04:55:46	will mu reach 870 by july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	120	88¢	$106	0x7bcaa5…
07-17 17:45:10	will spy dip to 740 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	36	94¢	$34	0x57f5c7…
07-17 17:44:46	will spy dip to 740 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xf44877…
07-17 14:21:40	will spy dip to 740 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	136	83¢	$114	0xfc28a9…
07-17 09:50:19	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xc7821f…
07-17 09:50:00	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	19	77¢	$14	0x55dc35…
07-16 20:36:34	will nflx reach 85 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0x9f23ed…
07-16 17:38:04	wti closes above 82 on july 16 2026	No	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x518457…
07-16 17:34:13	wti closes above 82 on july 16 2026	No	SELL	133	98¢	$130	0x934b0c…
07-16 17:33:32	wti closes above 82 on july 16 2026	No	SELL	45	99¢	$44	0xe8b822…
07-16 10:07:23	wti closes above 82 on july 16 2026	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xbb5d5c…
07-16 10:07:02	wti closes above 82 on july 16 2026	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x6260ac…
07-15 11:42:26	will spy reach 755 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xaaadd3…
07-14 14:56:40	ewy up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x75bb8c…
07-14 08:07:55	mu up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x52e63a…
07-14 08:06:29	mu up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x28d92e…
07-14 08:05:44	mu up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xac97a5…
07-13 17:17:25	meta up or down on july 13 2026	Down	SELL	108	89¢	$96	0x72b76d…
07-13 14:26:07	meta up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	82	88¢	$72	0x47b45f…
07-13 14:25:31	meta up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x47a9f7…
07-13 14:23:16	meta up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xa86809…
07-13 13:53:07	abnb up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xfa7966…
07-13 13:49:25	abnb up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x29555f…
07-13 13:41:49	nvda up or down on july 13 2026	Down	SELL	93	71¢	$66	0x848452…
07-13 13:41:49	nvda up or down on july 13 2026	Down	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x264a7d…
07-13 13:13:52	will spy dip to 750 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x05aebc…
07-13 12:19:29	ng up or down on july 13 2026	Down	SELL	162	82¢	$133	0x8c79c9…
07-13 10:09:35	ng up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xd1dbf4…
07-13 10:09:35	ng up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x9df346…
07-13 10:09:35	ng up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	112	83¢	$93	0x7a5902…
07-13 05:32:35	nvda up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xe39b71…
07-13 02:07:05	ewy up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xed3f55…
07-10 17:50:44	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 10	No	SELL	99	92¢	$91	0xf1dbfa…
07-10 17:44:58	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 10	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3c8e46…
07-10 15:30:37	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 10	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xbf85d6…
07-10 13:32:14	will abnb reach 150 by july 6 2026	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x99eeb9…
07-10 11:52:10	will abnb reach 150 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xe521eb…
07-10 10:10:43	will abnb reach 150 by july 6 2026	No	SELL	51	78¢	$40	0xabeb5a…
07-10 09:20:25	will abnb reach 150 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	51	81¢	$41	0x8b8257…
07-10 05:06:34	will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x3d3217…
07-10 02:14:40	nik up or down on july 10 2026	Up	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x32e852…
07-10 02:10:49	will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	93	86¢	$80	0xd86f71…
07-09 07:36:56	mu up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xad3ab7…
07-09 04:03:47	spy closes above 750 on july 9 2026	No	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x1a4a99…
07-09 02:31:43	wti closes above 76 on july 9 2026	No	SELL	130	78¢	$101	0x3e4958…
07-09 02:19:35	will xauusd dip to 4000 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x6887c1…
07-09 02:19:07	will xauusd dip to 4000 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xc2ccad…
07-09 02:04:08	wti closes above 76 on july 9 2026	No	BUY	130	83¢	$108	0x6e7421…
07-09 00:57:44	spy closes above 750 on july 9 2026	No	BUY	52	84¢	$44	0x2fa1d1…
07-08 22:23:20	spy closes above 750 on july 9 2026	No	BUY	48	84¢	$40	0xb97a40…
07-08 14:15:17	will abnb dip to 142 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x14bc90…
07-08 14:15:16	will abnb dip to 142 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x5814d1…
07-08 14:10:16	meta up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x398624…
07-08 14:06:01	meta up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x3fa01c…
07-08 13:42:22	meta up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	47	88¢	$42	0xe437e2…
07-08 13:40:53	will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	215	36¢	$78	0x68c8ca…
07-08 13:30:50	meta up or down on july 8 2026	Down	SELL	69	61¢	$42	0x1a29c8…
07-08 13:28:32	meta up or down on july 8 2026	Down	SELL	25	64¢	$16	0x7aaa4f…
07-08 13:28:32	meta up or down on july 8 2026	Down	SELL	26	64¢	$16	0x03187c…
07-08 09:13:56	meta up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	120	82¢	$98	0x50c8a1…
07-08 08:24:19	will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	215	79¢	$169	0xa9b070…
07-08 08:17:44	will xagusd dip to 56 in july 2026	No	SELL	427	52¢	$222	0xa46209…
07-07 07:43:49	will xagusd dip to 56 in july 2026	No	BUY	427	58¢	$247	0xaa9c21…
07-07 04:44:52	will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	No	SELL	23	50¢	$11	0x137802…
07-07 04:44:49	will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	No	SELL	133	50¢	$67	0x3b689b…
07-07 02:30:43	will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	No	SELL	63	65¢	$41	0xdb0a60…
07-07 02:14:53	will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	No	SELL	172	70¢	$121	0xc02ef4…
07-06 08:51:11	will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	391	68¢	$266	0xc4eae8…
07-06 08:09:47	meta up or down on july 6 2026	Up	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0xd1668e…
07-06 08:07:32	meta up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x98f809…
07-06 07:12:08	spy closes above 755 on july 6 2026	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x1bd720…
07-06 07:10:47	ewy up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x25da8b…
07-06 05:55:34	spy closes above 750 on july 6 2026	No	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x90642b…
07-06 04:31:43	mu up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x6e1268…
07-06 02:37:08	mu up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x0243eb…
07-06 02:19:13	mu up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xfd229b…
07-06 02:18:46	mu up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x51f98b…
07-06 02:15:43	mu up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xcebad9…
07-06 02:15:28	mu up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x6dbf2f…
07-06 02:15:13	mu up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x661cce…
07-06 02:13:41	mu up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x856612…
07-06 02:13:16	mu up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xbb4488…
07-06 02:11:58	ewy up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xd778b5…
07-02 17:11:29	spy closes above 750 on july 6 2026	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x9b5dd3…