Lumpy-Efficiency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.16K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved

453

Trades

1,114

lifetime

Volume

$72.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 17:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 198 days

Categories

Other

97% 72% +$2,009

Crypto

2% 90% +$120

Tech

1% 67% +$33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	9	$877	749	606	+143	No	-$99	07-10 05:06
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 4?	5	$788	448	448	+0	No	+$25	05-04 17:41
si above 100 jan 2026	13	$781	613	613	+0	No	-$54	01-26 00:47
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$750	630	330	+300	No	+$6	03-23 13:22
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $106 on May 4?	5	$742	518	518	+0	No	-$149	05-04 10:09
spy closes above 735 on july 27 2026	7	$673	420	420	+0	Yes	-$71	07-27 16:55
will mu dip to 750 by july 20 2026	2	$640	426	426	+0	No	+$33	07-20 19:24
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	6	$597	330	330	+0	No	+$36	06-01 13:33
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	2	$589	370	370	+0	Up	-$11	06-18 16:32
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	5	$554	342	342	+0	No	+$10	05-29 03:24
will wti reach 135 by april 6 2026	8	$553	300	299	+1	No	+$42	04-10 16:56
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 13 518 745 483	3	$549	300	300	+0	No	+$47	03-13 17:59
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?	3	$531	349	349	+0	No	+$8	04-30 18:35
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	9	$514	363	363	+0	Yes	-$53	05-20 14:58
si up or down on january 27 2026	8	$507	286	286	+0	Down	+$61	01-27 17:40
bitcoin above 94k on january 19	15	$507	280	280	+0	No	+$16	01-19 16:25
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	6	$497	344	344	+0	No	-$1	05-08 08:55
aapl close above 340 on september 24 2026	5	$477	300	300	+0	No	-$33	09-24 16:43
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on April 29?	3	$476	300	300	+0	Yes	-$68	04-29 10:12
will xagusd dip to 56 in july 2026	2	$469	427	427	+0	Yes	-$25	07-08 08:17
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on April 27?	2	$447	300	297	+3	No	+$25	04-27 15:11
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	10	$429	300	300	+0	Up	+$21	02-18 12:34
spx opens up or down on march 16 2026	6	$428	250	250	+0	Up	+$24	03-16 12:28
spx up or down on february 23 2026	2	$419	364	364	+0	Down	-$11	02-23 10:20
will spy reach 765 by june 1 2026	4	$395	247	247	+0	No	+$53	06-04 15:17
spx opens up or down on february 23 2026	5	$388	210	210	+0	Down	+$27	02-23 13:32
will spy reach 750 by june 8 2026	4	$386	224	224	+0	No	-$8	06-12 15:14
aapl close above 345 on october 13 2026	4	$383	270	270	+0	No	-$64	10-13 13:31
meta close above 590 on july 28 2026	3	$374	300	300	+0	Yes	+$2	07-28 17:06
wti closes above 82 on july 16 2026	5	$372	200	200	+0	No	+$20	07-16 17:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:16:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xeacbe1…
10-29 17:13:46	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	82	77¢	$63	0x5b5c23…
10-29 13:47:35	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x77de60…
10-29 13:47:34	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	SELL	91	57¢	$52	0xa9215e…
10-29 13:47:34	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x3d41cf…
10-29 02:16:34	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	BUY	110	82¢	$91	0x57d567…
10-28 13:37:40	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on October 28?	No	BUY	70	75¢	$52	0x740532…
10-28 13:20:23	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $350 on October 28?	No	SELL	67	83¢	$56	0xc07d71…
10-28 04:15:23	aapl close above 350 on october 28 2026	No	BUY	67	83¢	$55	0x2ba8e3…
10-28 04:09:59	Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	66	93¢	$61	0x722301…
10-27 12:35:56	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on October 27?	No	SELL	100	68¢	$68	0x50f7b8…
10-26 13:37:27	nvda close above 220 on october 27 2026	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xfb8030…
10-23 00:49:54	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $143 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	110	83¢	$91	0x438d10…
10-22 14:13:18	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 22?	No	BUY	90	86¢	$77	0xb510d8…
10-22 14:13:17	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 22?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x9d3bb3…
10-22 14:07:36	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 22?	Down	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0x231159…
10-22 02:36:20	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 22?	Down	BUY	200	90¢	$179	0xaaa344…
10-21 03:07:48	Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	160	79¢	$126	0xc70fd5…
10-20 15:25:23	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $265 on October 20?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xd5a20a…
10-19 02:28:03	Micron (MU) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	35	78¢	$27	0xd20a30…
10-19 02:14:54	Micron (MU) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	66	79¢	$52	0x884d82…
10-16 13:33:13	tsla up or down on october 16 2026	Up	SELL	22	62¢	$14	0xc2480c…
10-16 12:54:45	tsla up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	22	86¢	$19	0xe6c6c5…
10-16 02:06:51	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x372135…
10-15 16:02:28	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on October 15?	No	BUY	72	81¢	$58	0x4d51d9…
10-15 16:00:05	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?	No	SELL	52	39¢	$20	0x72bfee…
10-15 15:59:20	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?	No	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0x13c2ee…
10-15 03:42:46	spy closes above 770 on october 15 2026	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x105c06…
10-15 03:42:28	spy closes above 770 on october 15 2026	No	BUY	82	72¢	$59	0x0704ab…
10-15 02:44:50	tsla close above 370 on october 15 2026	No	BUY	31	72¢	$23	0x69b10d…
10-14 12:33:41	spy closes above 780 on october 14 2026	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x218068…
10-14 10:54:01	meta close above 750 on october 14 2026	Yes	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0x79e3b9…
10-14 02:28:43	meta close above 750 on october 14 2026	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x486591…
10-13 13:31:25	aapl close above 345 on october 13 2026	No	SELL	70	24¢	$17	0x557450…
10-13 08:42:49	tsla close above 380 on october 13 2026	No	BUY	86	80¢	$69	0xe77fe6…
10-13 08:31:26	spy closes above 780 on october 13 2026	No	SELL	96	68¢	$65	0x31ad37…
10-13 03:54:15	aapl close above 345 on october 13 2026	No	BUY	70	82¢	$57	0x0210f9…
10-13 02:06:15	spy closes above 780 on october 13 2026	No	BUY	96	85¢	$82	0xb95021…
10-13 02:03:47	aapl close above 345 on october 13 2026	No	SELL	200	71¢	$143	0x419f8b…
10-12 15:07:32	aapl close above 345 on october 13 2026	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x3bc0ff…
10-08 18:22:26	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xc5c81a…
10-08 18:17:45	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x37ac0d…
10-08 17:58:26	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $195 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x460ab5…
10-08 17:36:42	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $195 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x62fe5a…
10-08 08:54:32	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x8ae1a1…
10-06 15:18:45	nvda close above 245 on october 7 2026	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x498a40…
10-06 15:17:11	spy closes above 785 on october 7 2026	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x262cdc…
10-06 10:34:54	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 on October 6?	No	SELL	60	38¢	$23	0x66b045…
10-05 17:00:16	nvda close above 240 on october 6 2026	No	BUY	60	81¢	$49	0xbfcd34…
10-05 03:14:46	will nvda reach 236 by october 5 2026	Yes	SELL	43	85¢	$37	0x9ee2fc…
10-05 02:19:19	will nflx reach 67 50 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x28e335…
10-05 02:07:16	will nvda reach 236 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	43	85¢	$37	0x5cf603…
10-01 14:33:27	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 1?	Up	SELL	200	30¢	$59	0x41f6ca…
10-01 07:26:45	googl up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	83	90¢	$75	0x94a235…
10-01 07:26:39	googl up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	102	90¢	$92	0xf6b066…
10-01 05:28:26	googl up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x96b2ed…
09-28 00:38:12	will aapl dip to 340 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xe6624e…
09-25 13:31:48	will meta reach 800 by september 21 2026	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x38ecde…
09-25 01:47:42	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $198 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0xaab071…
09-24 18:11:48	spy closes above 770 on september 24 2026	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xdf873d…
09-24 16:46:42	spy closes above 770 on september 24 2026	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xaf819c…
09-24 16:43:45	aapl close above 340 on september 24 2026	No	SELL	46	75¢	$35	0x5dfb71…
09-24 16:42:47	aapl close above 340 on september 24 2026	No	SELL	54	77¢	$42	0x7a91c4…
09-24 13:33:18	aapl close above 340 on september 24 2026	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x132e61…
09-24 13:01:35	meta up or down on september 24 2026	Down	SELL	60	62¢	$37	0x4cb53b…
09-24 13:01:14	meta up or down on september 24 2026	Down	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0xdb7ac5…
09-24 11:37:20	meta up or down on september 24 2026	Down	BUY	160	76¢	$121	0x2e3dbc…
09-24 11:27:11	aapl close above 340 on september 24 2026	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xb027f3…
09-24 06:15:42	spy closes above 770 on september 24 2026	No	BUY	85	87¢	$74	0x6781a5…
09-24 03:39:44	aapl close above 340 on september 24 2026	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xf543cf…
09-23 18:22:20	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on September 23?	No	SELL	89	83¢	$74	0x4efb19…
09-23 17:43:04	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on September 23?	No	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0x71bc84…
09-23 14:18:09	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on September 23?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xc31302…
09-23 14:00:56	aapl close above 340 on september 23 2026	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x2a6cc1…
09-23 13:49:29	Will Meta (META) close above $760 on September 23?	No	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0x9b297c…
09-23 04:01:13	Will Meta (META) close above $760 on September 23?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x3cea5f…
09-23 04:01:11	Will Meta (META) close above $760 on September 23?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x0db867…
09-21 03:13:58	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $670 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x5346c0…
09-18 13:41:23	Will Meta (META) finish week of September 14 above $690?	No	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0xa6696c…
09-17 17:57:16	Will Meta (META) finish week of September 14 above $690?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xeda92f…
09-17 08:54:42	spy up or down on september 17 2026	Up	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x921023…
09-16 17:24:54	wti closes above 107 on september 16 2026	No	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0xb4aff4…
09-16 06:10:16	wti closes above 107 on september 16 2026	No	BUY	200	83¢	$165	0x7e277e…
09-15 13:37:51	Will Meta (META) close above $680 on September 15?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x1ab500…
09-15 12:41:40	Will Meta (META) close above $670 on September 15?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xcb32f4…
09-15 07:46:15	meta close above 670 on september 15 2026	No	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0xc648b4…
09-15 07:44:15	meta close above 670 on september 15 2026	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x04acc2…
09-14 00:04:54	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $186 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xb28912…
09-11 18:52:55	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 7 2026?	No	SELL	56	89¢	$50	0x9d9b0b…
09-11 18:52:55	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 7 2026?	No	SELL	44	89¢	$39	0x727cfc…
09-11 14:55:10	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 7 2026?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x3cbf83…
09-11 14:46:51	Will Meta (META) finish week of September 7 above $650?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x1d3f09…
09-11 13:41:51	Will Meta (META) finish week of September 7 above $650?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xd78095…
09-11 13:38:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on September 11?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x40f092…
09-11 13:36:01	aapl close above 330 on september 11 2026	No	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x8d05b1…
09-11 09:49:34	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 on September 11?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x8ca755…
09-11 03:17:01	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $332 Week of September 7 2026?	No	BUY	98	71¢	$69	0x111a9b…
09-10 10:55:09	Will Meta (META) close above $670 on September 10?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0xb76222…
09-10 10:54:39	Will Meta (META) close above $670 on September 10?	No	SELL	50	67¢	$34	0x7ef5aa…
09-09 18:15:54	meta close above 670 on september 10 2026	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xac7e54…