Lumpy-Efficiency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$81

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

31.3%

Resolved

Trades

890

lifetime

Volume

$58.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 09:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

96% 50% $-81

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ewy dip to 174 by july 6 2026	9	$877	749	606	+143	open	—	07-10 05:06
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 4?	5	$788	448	448	+0	open	—	05-04 17:41
si above 100 jan 2026	13	$781	613	613	+0	open	—	01-26 00:47
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$750	630	330	+300	open	—	03-23 13:22
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $106 on May 4?	5	$742	518	518	+0	No	$-149	05-04 10:09
spy closes above 735 on july 27 2026	7	$673	420	420	+0	open	—	07-27 16:55
will mu dip to 750 by july 20 2026	2	$640	426	426	+0	open	—	07-20 19:24
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	6	$597	330	330	+0	open	—	06-01 13:33
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	2	$589	370	370	+0	open	—	06-18 16:32
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	5	$554	342	342	+0	open	—	05-29 03:24
will wti reach 135 by april 6 2026	8	$553	300	299	+1	open	—	04-10 16:56
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 13 518 745 483	3	$549	300	300	+0	open	—	03-13 17:59
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?	3	$531	349	349	+0	open	—	04-30 18:35
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20?	9	$514	363	363	+0	open	—	05-20 14:58
si up or down on january 27 2026	8	$507	286	286	+0	open	—	01-27 17:40
bitcoin above 94k on january 19	15	$507	280	280	+0	open	—	01-19 16:25
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	6	$497	344	344	+0	No	$-1	05-08 08:55
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on April 29?	3	$476	300	300	+0	open	—	04-29 10:12
will xagusd dip to 56 in july 2026	2	$469	427	427	+0	open	—	07-08 08:17
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on April 27?	2	$447	300	297	+3	open	—	04-27 15:11
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	10	$429	300	300	+0	open	—	02-18 12:34
spx opens up or down on march 16 2026	6	$428	250	250	+0	open	—	03-16 12:28
spx up or down on february 23 2026	2	$419	364	364	+0	open	—	02-23 10:20
will spy reach 765 by june 1 2026	4	$395	247	247	+0	open	—	06-04 15:17
spx opens up or down on february 23 2026	5	$388	210	210	+0	open	—	02-23 13:32
will spy reach 750 by june 8 2026	4	$386	224	224	+0	open	—	06-12 15:14
meta close above 590 on july 28 2026	3	$374	300	300	+0	open	—	07-28 17:06
wti closes above 82 on july 16 2026	5	$372	200	200	+0	open	—	07-16 17:38
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 5?	7	$369	253	253	+0	Down	$-6	05-05 13:32
nvda close above 190 on march 17 2026	5	$367	200	200	+0	open	—	03-17 19:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 13:27:34	rklb up or down on august 11 2026	Down	SELL	48	87¢	$42	0x8bf496…
08-11 09:42:46	wti closes above 85 on august 11 2026	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x4eba93…
08-11 08:20:19	wti closes above 84 on august 11 2026	No	SELL	165	43¢	$71	0x393035…
08-11 04:29:22	wti closes above 84 on august 11 2026	No	BUY	165	82¢	$135	0xc12ab9…
08-10 21:35:25	rklb up or down on august 11 2026	Down	BUY	134	83¢	$111	0x6e9946…
08-10 14:41:46	coin up or down on august 10 2026	Down	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0xa81bd6…
08-10 14:41:25	coin up or down on august 10 2026	Down	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x1b0900…
08-10 14:41:19	coin up or down on august 10 2026	Down	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x5617fb…
08-10 14:40:06	coin up or down on august 10 2026	Down	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x324f8c…
08-10 14:39:52	coin up or down on august 10 2026	Down	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x41bba4…
08-10 14:34:01	will pltr dip to 168 by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	185	31¢	$57	0x97eb39…
08-10 14:29:39	will pltr dip to 168 by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xb46362…
08-10 12:27:25	will pltr dip to 168 by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	205	84¢	$172	0x9fb540…
08-06 20:26:30	abnb up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xd59240…
08-06 20:26:29	abnb up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x5ff6f3…
08-06 20:25:20	will abnb reach 158 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x79115c…
08-06 20:24:57	will abnb reach 158 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	60	87¢	$52	0xa9684a…
08-06 20:17:24	will abnb reach 158 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	104	76¢	$80	0xf2b066…
08-06 20:16:56	will abnb reach 156 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	27	84¢	$23	0x082c23…
08-06 14:26:26	spcx up or down on august 6 2026	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0xdf91a0…
08-06 14:02:11	mu up or down on august 6 2026	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xef95bf…
08-06 14:01:48	mu up or down on august 6 2026	Down	SELL	30	71¢	$21	0x0dbddf…
08-06 14:00:54	mu up or down on august 6 2026	Down	SELL	30	71¢	$21	0xf93fe0…
08-06 13:58:17	mu up or down on august 6 2026	Down	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0xfa2413…
08-06 13:57:12	mu up or down on august 6 2026	Down	SELL	30	72¢	$22	0x28b175…
08-06 13:08:30	mu up or down on august 6 2026	Down	BUY	107	87¢	$93	0x3e74f2…
08-06 12:13:51	spcx up or down on august 6 2026	Up	BUY	200	70¢	$139	0x180cb1…
08-06 12:09:30	mu up or down on august 6 2026	Down	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x758ea1…
08-06 12:09:29	mu up or down on august 6 2026	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xb8b0bc…
08-05 13:52:54	spcx up or down on august 5 2026	Down	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x956209…
08-05 13:37:59	spy closes above 780 on august 5 2026	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xb1e4e9…
08-05 13:37:20	spy closes above 780 on august 5 2026	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xefdce8…
08-04 20:56:05	spcx up or down on august 5 2026	Down	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x9fde1a…
08-04 20:54:26	spcx up or down on august 5 2026	Down	BUY	15	83¢	$13	0x480e69…
08-03 20:56:36	will pltr reach 138 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	150	93¢	$140	0xf9c931…
08-03 09:05:14	will ewy reach 161 by august 3 2026	Yes	SELL	163	88¢	$144	0x98016b…
08-03 02:21:30	will ewy reach 161 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	163	93¢	$152	0x3577d6…
08-03 02:02:24	spy closes above 750 on august 3 2026	No	SELL	25	44¢	$11	0xd80aa2…
08-02 22:13:00	spx opens up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0xaa3ac5…
08-02 18:21:53	spy closes above 750 on august 3 2026	No	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0xa1362d…
07-30 20:41:51	aapl up or down on july 31 2026	Down	BUY	55	82¢	$45	0xcbf3d6…
07-30 20:37:12	will aapl dip to 328 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x14776b…
07-30 20:17:35	amzn up or down on july 31 2026	Up	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0x7b6624…
07-30 20:03:32	spy closes above 730 on july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xb2887d…
07-30 15:10:38	will spcx dip to 105 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0x088bea…
07-30 14:58:51	msft up or down on july 30 2026	Up	SELL	97	100¢	$97	0xd0ae91…
07-30 02:15:11	meta up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	78	90¢	$70	0x15fa48…
07-30 02:13:32	msft close above 400 on july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x08e120…
07-30 01:59:41	will msft reach 412 50 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x924d5f…
07-30 01:56:59	ewy up or down on july 30 2026	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x18490a…
07-29 20:21:27	meta up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x480d28…
07-29 20:21:24	meta up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	49	85¢	$42	0x253128…
07-29 20:21:23	meta up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x7a357f…
07-29 20:21:18	meta up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x458985…
07-29 20:09:27	msft up or down on july 30 2026	Up	BUY	57	84¢	$48	0x9422fb…
07-29 20:09:27	msft up or down on july 30 2026	Up	BUY	40	84¢	$33	0x2d1e21…
07-29 18:09:29	spy closes above 740 on july 29 2026	No	SELL	120	61¢	$73	0xaf9496…
07-29 17:08:06	spy closes above 740 on july 29 2026	No	BUY	120	75¢	$90	0x309ac2…
07-29 15:30:48	spy closes above 735 on july 29 2026	Yes	SELL	160	45¢	$72	0xd6c24d…
07-29 11:27:38	spy closes above 745 on july 29 2026	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x862f41…
07-28 17:06:47	meta close above 590 on july 28 2026	Yes	SELL	289	62¢	$179	0x6ca0a5…
07-28 16:45:25	meta close above 590 on july 28 2026	Yes	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0xbc4b9a…
07-27 18:11:40	msft close above 380 on july 28 2026	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x1f025d…
07-27 18:10:48	msft close above 380 on july 28 2026	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xe5527f…
07-27 17:05:04	meta close above 590 on july 28 2026	Yes	BUY	300	62¢	$186	0x4da47e…
07-27 17:03:28	meta up or down on july 27 2026	Up	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0xbf5b82…
07-27 16:55:55	spy closes above 735 on july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	200	71¢	$141	0x58161f…
07-27 16:13:10	spy closes above 735 on july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	47	87¢	$41	0xc15655…
07-27 16:10:24	spy closes above 735 on july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	153	87¢	$133	0x19c406…
07-27 15:50:09	meta up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xa174b7…
07-27 15:37:34	spy closes above 735 on july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	107	70¢	$74	0xbf947e…
07-27 15:34:07	spy closes above 735 on july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0xab4718…
07-27 15:33:04	spy closes above 735 on july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0x2f8c1c…
07-27 14:04:01	ewy up or down on july 27 2026	Up	SELL	24	74¢	$18	0x6e4ea0…
07-27 00:14:55	will meta reach 600 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	215	88¢	$189	0x4d2876…
07-27 00:08:42	spy closes above 735 on july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	220	90¢	$198	0x20bf28…
07-27 00:06:48	ewy up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x528f5c…
07-27 00:06:46	ewy up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x85edb0…
07-26 23:54:51	dax up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xea6322…
07-26 23:50:55	nik up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x2b0284…
07-26 23:49:34	dax up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	16	79¢	$12	0x342559…
07-26 23:45:46	spx opens up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x784433…
07-26 23:45:45	spx opens up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x9d538c…
07-26 23:44:01	nik up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	16	79¢	$12	0x6bcced…
07-26 23:36:21	spx opens up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0x66b236…
07-24 14:44:51	spcx above 110 on july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	67	73¢	$49	0x70ede3…
07-24 14:00:06	will mu dip to 780 by july 20 2026	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xf86656…
07-24 13:58:57	spcx above 110 on july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	64	89¢	$57	0x02a069…
07-24 13:41:13	mu up or down on july 24 2026	Down	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x1df8bc…
07-24 13:34:57	meta above 610 on july 24 2026	Yes	SELL	100	26¢	$26	0x3ea952…
07-24 13:34:34	meta above 610 on july 24 2026	Yes	SELL	100	26¢	$26	0xe2f58a…
07-22 15:10:43	meta above 610 on july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x9d8cf3…
07-22 15:10:43	meta above 610 on july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x39e5b3…
07-22 14:58:24	spy closes above 750 on july 22 2026	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x381b4d…
07-22 14:43:54	spy closes above 750 on july 22 2026	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x41265f…
07-22 13:53:39	will abnb reach 152 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	86	90¢	$77	0xe9923b…
07-22 11:39:25	will abnb reach 152 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	169	83¢	$140	0x9e6106…
07-22 06:45:52	wti closes above 87 on july 22 2026	No	SELL	35	68¢	$24	0xc4e874…
07-22 06:41:12	wti closes above 87 on july 22 2026	No	SELL	128	70¢	$90	0x531434…
07-22 06:24:42	wti closes above 87 on july 22 2026	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xe68918…