Probable-Ivory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$454

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-08

last 05-28 19:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

86% 82% $-2

Sports

13% 33% $-6

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	05-24 17:07
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5	2	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	05-17 13:21
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)	2	$23	13	13	+0	Southampton FC	+$3	05-09 13:21
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	05-23 16:06
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 26?	2	$16	9	9	+0	open	—	05-26 20:41
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5)	2	$15	8	8	+0	Villarreal CF	+$2	05-10 14:15
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	2	$15	8	8	+0	West Ham United FC	+$1	05-10 17:25
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)	2	$15	8	8	+0	Newcastle United FC	+$1	05-10 14:40
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 12?	1	$15	33	0	+33	Down	$-15	05-12 07:20
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)	2	$15	8	8	+0	Everton FC	+$1	05-10 14:56
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	2	$15	10	10	+0	Joshua Van	+$6	05-10 05:52
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 11?	2	$14	12	12	+0	No	+$6	05-11 18:34
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	05-17 15:22
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 18?	2	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	05-18 14:41
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27?	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	05-27 20:00
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 28?	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	05-28 14:23
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	05-23 20:23
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	05-28 19:24
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5	2	$11	7	7	+0	Over	+$3	05-10 14:16
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	05-18 19:29
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 28?	2	$10	11	11	+0	open	—	05-28 17:49
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 8?	2	$10	6	6	+0	Yes	+$0	05-08 17:59
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-24 20:46
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-17 16:21
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	1	$8	15	0	+15	open	—	05-23 11:14
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	1	$8	12	0	+12	Timberwolves	$-8	05-10 22:01
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)	1	$7	9	0	+9	open	—	05-28 19:26
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	1	$7	8	0	+8	open	—	05-28 19:21
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5	1	$7	8	0	+8	Over	+$1	05-10 08:26
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5	1	$7	0	7	-7	open	—	05-23 16:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-28 19:26:16	Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)	Boston Red Sox	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x703f38…
05-28 19:24:03	Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)	Los Angeles Angels	SELL	8	96¢	$7	0x91a058…
05-28 19:21:55	Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x2a3ae7…
05-28 17:54:23	Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x74af54…
05-28 17:49:36	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0xb61313…
05-28 15:20:21	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x1e3569…
05-28 14:23:34	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0xc99e70…
05-28 14:23:06	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x658a24…
05-28 08:23:15	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x158a93…
05-27 20:00:08	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x5a9ec9…
05-27 06:39:08	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x9019ca…
05-26 20:42:34	Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xd5e65b…
05-26 20:41:43	Meta (META) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x8756d1…
05-25 20:14:56	Meta (META) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0xf65db6…
05-24 20:46:36	Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xb8aa2d…
05-24 18:22:06	Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Thunder	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xb79fc8…
05-24 17:07:05	Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)	Manchester United FC	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xd72945…
05-24 09:58:43	Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)	Manchester United FC	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x5e434c…
05-23 20:23:18	Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x66040e…
05-23 18:30:20	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	VfB Stuttgart	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x5dc5e1…
05-23 18:26:24	Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x351aa3…
05-23 18:25:56	Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x1a1ed7…
05-23 16:27:05	Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xa4b10c…
05-23 16:06:01	Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)	Hull City AFC	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x711a06…
05-23 14:46:45	Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)	Hull City AFC	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xbe2647…
05-23 11:14:56	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0x5a7970…
05-18 19:44:08	Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xb10277…
05-18 19:29:52	Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	7	89¢	$6	0x1340a1…
05-18 18:22:46	Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x8d0182…
05-18 14:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xfead6a…
05-18 14:43:57	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0x668123…
05-18 14:41:21	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xb65071…
05-18 13:15:24	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0xb2e4a7…
05-18 13:11:38	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 on May 18?	No	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x718d35…
05-18 11:13:59	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x02eeed…
05-17 16:21:44	Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)	West Ham United FC	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x158e1d…
05-17 16:11:10	Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x38cafc…
05-17 15:22:00	Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x1a0ce1…
05-17 13:26:28	Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xf8e025…
05-17 13:21:50	Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x6be0f2…
05-17 11:20:46	Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0x195ede…
05-12 07:20:43	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0x9ceee9…
05-11 18:34:47	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 11?	No	SELL	12	89¢	$10	0x17448f…
05-11 11:55:47	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 11?	No	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0xba07f0…
05-10 22:01:24	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0xd7fe0c…
05-10 17:25:26	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	West Ham United FC	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x64e4df…
05-10 14:56:46	Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)	Everton FC	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x0c73cf…
05-10 14:40:16	Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)	Newcastle United FC	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x1fc36f…
05-10 14:16:10	TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x70e03c…
05-10 14:15:37	Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5)	Villarreal CF	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x598eb2…
05-10 10:09:32	Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5)	Villarreal CF	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x68fd69…
05-10 08:36:56	TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x59c54e…
05-10 08:26:36	1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x7c63db…
05-10 07:26:12	Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)	Everton FC	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xe92dd8…
05-10 07:25:28	Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)	Newcastle United FC	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x223ff5…
05-10 05:57:30	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	West Ham United FC	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xd2e8d8…
05-10 05:52:54	UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	Joshua Van	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa15e82…
05-09 20:33:04	Spread: Thunder (-9.5)	Lakers	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xcec490…
05-09 20:23:22	UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	Joshua Van	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xbf4d0f…
05-09 13:21:16	Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)	Southampton FC	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x1ae230…
05-09 10:37:15	Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)	Southampton FC	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x2cc9f9…
05-08 17:59:02	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 8?	Yes	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0xc2dcfb…
05-08 15:33:50	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $395 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x30f6fd…
05-08 09:18:49	Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x8e3607…