Treasured-Trumpet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$284

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

43.4%

Resolved

214

Trades

502

lifetime

Volume

$11.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$66

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-25 01:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

77% 49% -$131

Politics

16% 58% +$14

Tech

2% 40% -$93

Sports

2% 42% -$34

Crypto

2% 30% -$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+35	$27	86¢	$30	+$3	10-25 01:57
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	+30	$25	80¢	$24	-$1	10-25 01:41
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	+25	$19	47¢	$12	-$7	10-25 01:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx up or down on january 20 2026	14	$715	1,520	1,503	+18	Down	+$18	01-20 04:22
spx opens up or down on january 26 2026	9	$547	700	700	+0	Up	-$13	01-26 09:19
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$520	300	300	+0	No	-$2	01-04 12:50
will phm minh chnh be the next prime minister of vietnam	3	$445	250	250	+0	No	+$0	01-22 00:55
spx up or down on january 23 2026	5	$435	291	351	-60	Up	-$16	01-23 06:35
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	7	$390	500	500	+0	No	$0	01-14 01:57
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	4	$363	300	300	+0	No	-$3	01-05 02:12
will there be 12 14 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	10	$326	800	683	+117	No	-$26	01-24 05:12
spx opens up or down on january 23 2026	7	$324	508	508	+0	Down	+$3	01-23 07:16
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	3	$294	626	600	+26	No	-$3	01-15 10:35
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	20	$283	600	600	+0	Yes	+$5	02-08 05:03
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 8 million	2	$221	200	200	+0	Yes	+$1	01-06 00:22
spx up or down on january 16 2026	14	$218	340	265	+75	Down	+$108	01-16 18:09
another us strike on venezuela by january 31 867	6	$217	448	448	+0	No	-$4	01-05 01:09
spx up or down on january 14 2026	5	$215	230	200	+30	Down	-$8	01-14 12:09
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$195	200	200	+0	Yes	-$3	06-12 10:14
will claude 5 be released on february 5 2026	3	$169	1,010	1,000	+10	No	-$60	02-05 03:49
sp 500 spx opening price up or down on january 5	3	$142	244	244	+0	Yes	$0	01-05 06:43
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	5	$130	170	120	+50	Up	+$17	05-06 10:37
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	1	$120	0	120	-120	No	$0	01-03 08:47
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$117	300	300	+0	No	-$3	01-12 02:26
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 1m 791 144 948	2	$114	200	200	+0	No	-$2	01-07 04:53
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31?	3	$102	60	60	+0	No	-$1	06-12 15:36
spx up or down on january 15 2026	3	$99	50	130	-80	Up	-$36	01-15 06:16
alon called coin fdv above 1m one day after the call 547	3	$98	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-16 01:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$97	121	121	+0	Yes	+$3	01-11 11:30
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 520 539	2	$95	100	0	+100	No	+$5	01-02 06:29
another us strike on venezuela by january 17	2	$78	400	400	+0	No	-$10	01-05 01:19
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 140 164	3	$77	40	40	+0	No	+$1	02-09 14:06
spx opens up or down on february 6 2026	1	$76	100	0	+100	Up	-$76	02-06 04:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 01:57:41	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	78¢	$27	0x089c19…
10-25 01:57:12	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0xb6bb88…
10-25 01:49:56	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	74¢	$26	0x795da8…
10-25 01:41:44	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x5d1b15…
10-24 03:38:39	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xf2e921…
10-24 03:37:57	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xe9b152…
10-23 18:44:47	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x936dd5…
10-23 18:30:32	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% in October?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x3e7bc0…
10-10 02:37:21	Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $3.0B?	No	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0x8d5c71…
10-10 02:31:08	Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 MedTech revenue be above $8.6B?	Yes	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xb318c6…
10-02 03:08:03	will the 10 year treasury yield dip below 4pt85 in october	No	BUY	19	89¢	$17	0x0317e1…
10-02 03:03:48	will the 2 year treasury yield dip below 4pt10 before 2027	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xaea656…
10-02 02:50:11	will the 2 year treasury yield dip below 4pt55 in october	No	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0xde93d6…
10-02 02:12:53	state d4 drought 2026 10 06 ms	Yes	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0x58712c…
10-02 02:03:24	will the 5 year treasury yield dip below 4pt95 in october	Yes	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0x368628…
10-02 02:03:12	will the 5 year treasury yield dip below 4pt92 in october	Yes	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0xd7fcac…
10-02 01:36:45	dwts 35 week 4 elimination ezrfre	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x4670c8…
10-02 01:34:30	dwts 35 week 4 elimination harshu	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x6b945d…
10-02 01:34:20	dwts 35 week 4 elimination harshu	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xa00389…
10-02 01:34:06	dwts 35 week 4 elimination harshu	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0xa4d589…
07-12 14:01:46	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x898fce…
07-12 14:01:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0x2e067d…
06-12 16:42:01	will united states go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622417	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xe4ec0a…
06-12 16:41:48	will germany go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622448	No	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x7ffbaf…
06-12 16:39:43	will belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622451	No	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x737db0…
06-12 16:39:27	will brazil go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622430	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xf125cf…
06-12 16:38:10	will england go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622445	No	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x192dbc…
06-12 16:34:58	will tunisia go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622440	Yes	SELL	21	8¢	$2	0xea5db5…
06-12 16:31:45	will tunisia go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622440	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0xc5722b…
06-12 16:22:03	will mexico go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622418	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x38817b…
06-12 15:36:03	will russia capture serhiivka by july 31	No	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x64c25c…
06-12 15:35:09	ao tanaka 20260609171501502	Yes	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0x037214…
06-12 15:34:18	nahuel molina 20260609174518109	No	SELL	25	82¢	$20	0xbbb36d…
06-12 11:12:51	nahuel molina 20260609174518109	No	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0xbd372f…
06-12 11:08:48	Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	15	62¢	$9	0x8cfd49…
06-12 11:08:21	geronimo rulli 20260609174518095	Yes	SELL	21	9¢	$2	0x41c1e9…
06-12 11:07:16	alex baena 20260609173616768	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x8c4040…
06-12 11:06:30	geronimo rulli 20260609174518095	Yes	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0x39f2b0…
06-12 11:06:00	alex baena 20260609173616768	No	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xd7a1e5…
06-12 10:57:45	ao tanaka 20260609171501502	Yes	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0xefb8b2…
06-12 10:56:58	ao tanaka 20260609171501502	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x3ae7ca…
06-12 10:56:27	yuito suzuki 20260609171501507	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x476f76…
06-12 10:55:24	yuito suzuki 20260609171501507	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x6fd9f2…
06-12 10:39:33	santiago arias 20260609175657506	Yes	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0xf5dbdf…
06-12 10:37:03	Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x1f00b8…
06-12 10:14:52	will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x76e4f6…
06-01 05:12:30	Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31?	No	SELL	30	78¢	$23	0x5a6a5f…
06-01 05:04:11	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xc153a1…
06-01 05:03:47	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x5f73a8…
06-01 05:03:24	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x0caef8…
06-01 04:59:56	Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31?	No	BUY	60	86¢	$52	0x8da62d…
06-01 04:59:42	Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x1e1c3c…
06-01 04:44:39	Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x20d4fb…
06-01 03:52:32	Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xa76546…
06-01 03:09:09	Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	31¢	$7	0x17377c…
06-01 03:08:45	Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	31¢	$7	0x53538d…
06-01 03:01:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	25	26¢	$6	0x585c65…
06-01 02:59:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	60	44¢	$26	0x2b33f5…
06-01 02:59:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	35	26¢	$9	0x5afdb8…
06-01 02:51:01	Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	14	39¢	$5	0x9a9854…
06-01 02:50:21	Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	14	39¢	$5	0xebb5d9…
05-22 16:54:25	Meta (META) Up or Down on May 22?	Up	BUY	31	51¢	$16	0xbbd621…
05-22 16:00:07	Will Trump say "MAGA" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	SELL	24	24¢	$6	0x5fd36a…
05-22 15:49:00	Will Trump say "Job" 7+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x31545b…
05-22 11:29:23	Will Trump say "Job" 7+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	18	14¢	$3	0xddc179…
05-22 07:26:50	Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	31	20¢	$6	0x3422d1…
05-22 07:26:14	Will Trump say "MAGA" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	SELL	26	25¢	$6	0x036fd5…
05-22 07:25:54	Will Trump say "No Tax" during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x31c2e0…
05-22 07:25:39	Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0x69bcba…
05-22 07:24:16	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	12	33¢	$4	0x67c09b…
05-22 07:23:29	Will Trump say "Job" 7+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	34	14¢	$5	0xc664f7…
05-22 07:22:40	Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during events in Rockland County?	Yes	SELL	40	73¢	$29	0xd68aa0…
05-22 07:17:23	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x6645b5…
05-22 07:15:31	Will Trump say "No Tax" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x4dea77…
05-22 07:11:56	Will Trump say "MAGA" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	43	43¢	$18	0x2c72e9…
05-22 07:10:41	Will Trump say "Job" 7+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0x7e67cb…
05-22 07:09:34	Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xf2d401…
05-22 06:52:08	Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	SELL	25	67¢	$17	0x401407…
05-22 06:51:56	Will Trump say "All time high" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	SELL	30	75¢	$22	0x2afd01…
05-22 06:51:21	Will Trump say "All time high" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xbd46ac…
05-22 06:50:39	Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	No	BUY	25	67¢	$17	0x08e37a…
05-22 06:44:49	Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	25	37¢	$9	0x8ca7cd…
05-22 06:43:04	Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	25	38¢	$10	0x450c7d…
05-22 06:42:08	Will Trump say "Tax" 7+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	13	11¢	$1	0x2fefd0…
05-22 06:36:02	Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	60	26¢	$16	0x7da4ae…
05-22 06:32:07	Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x47f534…
05-22 06:28:11	Will Trump say "President Xi" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x269fec…
05-22 06:27:41	Will Trump say "President Xi" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x8f0819…
05-22 06:27:36	Will Trump say "Tax" 7+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	47	17¢	$8	0x4cecc0…
05-22 06:27:34	Will Trump say "MAGA" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xc6fcc8…
05-22 06:26:35	Will Trump say "Tax" 7+ times during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	60	19¢	$11	0x970659…
05-22 06:24:29	Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	24	62¢	$15	0xb96257…
05-22 06:24:04	Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0xd20052…
05-06 16:25:54	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x8a1fec…
05-06 16:25:18	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xce6eae…
05-06 15:14:16	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x5ab50b…
05-06 15:11:11	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	34	76¢	$26	0x30be2f…
05-06 14:56:39	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?	Yes	SELL	14	26¢	$4	0x5b2658…
05-06 14:55:43	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xfecec8…
05-06 14:37:19	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0xbe01fe…