Naive-Mission — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

62.8%

Resolved

870

Trades

8,224

lifetime

Volume

$473.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$58

Open exposure

$360

1 position

First seen

2026-03-27

last 06-16 17:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 61% -$21,035

Politics

4% 70% -$1,001

Other

3% 75% +$580

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-16).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No		-402	-$350	89¢	$-360	-$10	06-01 17:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	21	$19.4K	20,399	20,396	+3	Yes	+$2,437	05-21 08:08
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?	6	$13.5K	25,904	20,648	+5,256	No	-$6,968	04-27 02:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	14	$12.5K	13,729	13,729	+0	No	+$735	06-02 16:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	6	$7.8K	6,065	6,019	+47	Yes	-$157	06-07 21:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	20	$7.2K	13,993	4,301	+9,692	Yes	-$3,553	04-29 17:47
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	2	$5.4K	6,279	0	+6,279	Yes	+$879	05-04 01:17
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	8	$3.5K	7,051	7,051	+0	No	-$2,632	05-30 22:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	13	$3.2K	5,330	3,252	+2,079	Up	-$1,395	05-01 17:30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	12	$3.1K	5,353	5,353	+0	No	-$3,100	06-07 16:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 16:05 UTC	36	$2.9K	3,443	3,270	+172	Up	+$1,019	04-13 16:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	9	$2.8K	3,330	0	+3,330	Up	+$500	04-30 17:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	10	$2.4K	4,376	0	+4,376	Up	+$1,996	05-01 06:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	32	$2.4K	2,188	1,381	+806	Down	+$59	05-02 10:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 15:15 UTC	26	$2.3K	3,941	1,598	+2,343	Up	+$1,302	04-04 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	6	$2.2K	2,136	2,136	+0	Up	-$246	05-01 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	9	$2.1K	2,765	0	+2,765	Up	+$685	05-01 17:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	11	$2.0K	2,662	223	+2,440	Down	-$1,648	05-01 17:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 06:35 UTC	13	$1.9K	1,558	1,511	+47	Down	+$162	04-05 06:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	13	$1.9K	2,544	0	+2,544	Down	-$1,930	05-01 06:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 15:45 UTC	19	$1.9K	2,332	0	+2,332	Down	+$437	04-04 15:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 04:15 UTC	10	$1.9K	2,454	2,327	+126	Up	+$537	04-04 04:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	68	$1.9K	1,387	1,140	+247	Up	+$59	05-02 05:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-04 16:30 UTC	13	$1.8K	2,080	0	+2,080	Up	+$240	04-04 16:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	11	$1.7K	3,296	0	+3,296	Up	-$1,750	05-01 06:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 17:20 UTC	8	$1.7K	2,277	0	+2,277	Down	+$527	04-13 17:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 09:00 UTC	7	$1.7K	2,048	0	+2,048	Up	+$318	04-13 09:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 16:10 UTC	83	$1.7K	1,628	1,566	+63	Up	+$160	04-13 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	24	$1.7K	4,768	739	+4,029	Up	-$952	05-02 09:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	40	$1.6K	2,159	1,057	+1,103	Down	-$1,157	05-24 11:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 05:45 UTC	15	$1.6K	2,109	0	+2,109	Up	+$509	04-13 05:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 17:15:26	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x4b01c9…
06-07 21:32:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x27d790…
06-07 16:57:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	Yes	SELL	5,353	0¢	$21	0x72b8dc…
06-05 18:05:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x2eb594…
06-05 18:05:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x4c1931…
06-05 18:05:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xba4c74…
06-05 18:05:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x7a0bff…
06-05 18:05:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xaca405…
06-05 18:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	31	5¢	$2	0x5723a6…
06-05 18:01:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x872fb3…
06-05 17:59:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x8ec053…
06-02 20:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	299	2¢	$6	0xe712f2…
06-02 20:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	195	5¢	$10	0xbfc5bd…
06-02 20:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x158d86…
06-02 20:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x7440e8…
06-02 20:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x94893b…
06-02 20:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xe371f7…
06-02 20:50:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x97acd8…
06-02 20:46:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x565bdc…
06-02 20:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	59	75¢	$44	0x7c732d…
06-02 20:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xc3c677…
06-02 20:40:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xc51cd3…
06-02 20:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	170	59¢	$100	0x362e6c…
06-02 20:35:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xa5e3d9…
06-02 20:35:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	157	64¢	$100	0xebc5ed…
06-02 20:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x331c9c…
06-02 20:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0xc42176…
06-02 20:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xd1a48f…
06-02 20:11:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	33	56¢	$18	0x0f44ef…
06-02 20:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x6d5b84…
06-02 20:10:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0xc0c8d3…
06-02 20:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x3ec2a1…
06-02 20:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0x6056b0…
06-02 20:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xc2ba3a…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	72¢	$5	0xfa7d8a…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0xf50dfb…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xdd2ae0…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xd26660…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xcbe40e…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0xba4cfc…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	25	72¢	$18	0xb59935…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	17	72¢	$12	0x87f8d6…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x7fdcf1…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x7bbc54…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	29	72¢	$21	0x4a5ba6…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	13	72¢	$9	0x41de2e…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	79	72¢	$57	0x2d1964…
06-02 19:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x223e8f…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xf2cfc6…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0xdabc5b…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0xd87367…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0xd27b7b…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	72¢	$4	0xbfe6b7…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	72¢	$8	0xacbec5…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x8bf2ff…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	30	72¢	$22	0x6e58b3…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	9	72¢	$7	0x1ed42b…
06-02 19:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	72¢	$4	0x160845…
06-02 19:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x1c4162…
06-02 19:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0x320d36…
06-02 19:56:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x7b302c…
06-02 19:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	163	61¢	$100	0x338f6a…
06-02 19:16:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x46b831…
06-02 19:15:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x9e24b1…
06-02 19:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xfc996e…
06-02 19:08:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xd92ce0…
06-02 19:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x01166d…
06-02 16:03:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2,038	20¢	$408	0xf981d0…
06-02 09:23:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	6,019	63¢	$3,817	0x99b32a…
06-02 08:59:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x6b06f7…
06-02 08:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x8921ad…
06-02 08:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x35cc8e…
06-02 08:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x1c8212…
06-02 08:45:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x6ee4fb…
06-02 08:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x216c7e…
06-02 08:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x1597d3…
06-02 08:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x7454fe…
06-02 08:41:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x18f14d…
06-02 08:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xe31098…
06-02 08:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xc9eef9…
06-02 08:31:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x4a87f0…
06-02 08:31:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	151	66¢	$100	0x492912…
06-02 08:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x8826db…
06-02 08:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x546d5f…
06-02 08:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x583f4e…
06-02 08:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	146	68¢	$100	0x2b7b85…
06-02 08:25:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xba3caa…
06-02 08:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xeb0a05…
06-02 08:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xe35267…
06-02 08:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x648a41…
06-02 08:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x5b818c…
06-02 08:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x2098d3…
06-02 08:14:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xe9d1d0…
06-02 08:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x0dbf4b…
06-02 08:13:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	63	65¢	$41	0x02309a…
06-02 08:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xfffa0c…
06-02 08:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0xb1a35f…
06-02 08:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x9126dd…
06-02 08:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x5b443b…
06-02 08:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x192f37…