Vibrant-Fertilizer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

61.6%

Resolved

Trades

139

lifetime

Volume

$282

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-09

last 07-02 12:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

49% — —

Crypto

47% 48% $-7

Politics

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes		+20	$2	6¢	$1	$-1	06-24 21:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	4	$42	25	25	+0	open	—	05-20 11:46
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	4	$19	0	25	-25	open	—	06-18 11:39
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	2	$17	9	9	+0	open	—	07-02 12:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	9	$15	23	23	+0	Down	+$0	05-09 19:24
atp smit echargu 2026 06 24	3	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	06-24 16:54
atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	4	$11	39	0	+39	open	—	06-07 17:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	4	$9	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-09 13:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	11	$9	120	20	+100	Down	$-6	05-09 14:54
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$8	30	30	+0	open	—	05-20 11:41
wta swiatek navarro 2026 06 24	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	06-24 15:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	6	$7	50	50	+0	Up	$-0	05-09 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	4	$7	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	05-10 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	5	$6	15	10	+5	open	—	05-20 11:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	05-20 11:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	4	$6	17	17	+0	Down	+$2	05-09 13:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	4	$5	65	15	+50	Up	$-1	05-09 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	5	$5	75	75	+0	Up	+$1	05-09 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	3	$5	13	13	+0	Up	+$1	05-09 21:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	4	$4	12	10	+2	Up	+$1	05-09 19:19
atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07 set totals 3pt5	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	06-07 17:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	4	$4	55	55	+0	Down	$-1	05-09 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	4	$4	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-09 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	2	$4	5	5	+0	Down	+$2	05-09 13:34
Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	1	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	05-12 08:00
atp safiull kym 2026 06 25	2	$4	5	5	+0	open	—	06-25 13:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	2	$4	5	5	+0	Up	+$2	05-09 14:29
atp basing bertola 2026 06 25	4	$3	13	6	+7	open	—	06-25 13:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	2	$3	5	5	+0	Down	$-1	05-10 10:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	3	$3	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-09 14:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$3	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-09 13:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 12:30:47	wta swan keys 2026 07 01	Katie Swan	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x08b408…
07-02 12:07:05	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	93¢	$9	0xf4ac64…
06-26 12:39:47	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xa631bd…
06-25 13:52:23	atp safiull kym 2026 06 25	Roman Safiullin	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xd7a734…
06-25 13:51:35	atp safiull kym 2026 06 25	Roman Safiullin	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xcee407…
06-25 13:45:35	atp basing bertola 2026 06 25	Remy Bertola	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xe9de50…
06-25 13:45:35	atp basing bertola 2026 06 25	Remy Bertola	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x97e3a0…
06-25 13:44:19	atp basing bertola 2026 06 25	Remy Bertola	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x26bcad…
06-25 13:43:44	atp basing bertola 2026 06 25	Remy Bertola	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xbc9fdd…
06-24 21:24:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x13b5b3…
06-24 16:54:43	atp smit echargu 2026 06 24	Moez Echargui	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x46f3d6…
06-24 15:58:46	atp smit echargu 2026 06 24	Moez Echargui	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x08349a…
06-24 15:55:31	atp smit echargu 2026 06 24	Moez Echargui	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xcbabe1…
06-24 15:48:41	wta swiatek navarro 2026 06 24	Emma Navarro	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x78d3b2…
06-24 15:24:26	wta swiatek navarro 2026 06 24	Emma Navarro	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xef5263…
06-18 11:39:14	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xfbf587…
06-07 17:00:54	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xde87b9…
06-07 17:00:21	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07 set totals 3pt5	Over 3.5	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb786b6…
06-07 15:08:04	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xef0109…
06-07 15:07:18	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	73¢	$5	0x9d8578…
06-07 15:06:33	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0x3fe85e…
06-07 14:35:54	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xfd1b7e…
06-07 11:12:24	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07 set totals 3pt5	Over 3.5	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x759213…
06-07 11:12:10	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x173c5e…
06-07 11:10:25	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xb4c66f…
05-20 19:05:37	Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x8dd141…
05-20 18:07:06	Will Trump say "Gold" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x4e71ca…
05-20 12:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xc4f442…
05-20 12:10:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x477992…
05-20 12:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8a0d44…
05-20 11:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x46d80d…
05-20 11:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3c2bb4…
05-20 11:53:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x93dc24…
05-20 11:53:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x2e50f0…
05-20 11:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xbd2bab…
05-20 11:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xa4e271…
05-20 11:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x5ef2fa…
05-20 11:46:29	Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xf96f63…
05-20 11:41:15	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0xaada11…
05-20 11:39:53	Will Starmer say "Jewish" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xc2d337…
05-20 10:44:37	Will Starmer say "Jewish" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x1afc27…
05-15 17:00:52	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb6f6c4…
05-15 16:55:28	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xee4fee…
05-15 16:15:20	Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x52b915…
05-15 15:25:47	Will "Regulatory" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x5b5c7a…
05-12 08:00:29	Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x417311…
05-11 14:36:26	Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x75af7b…
05-11 13:52:37	Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xfed541…
05-11 13:51:50	Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xf2b503…
05-11 12:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xf5901e…
05-11 12:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x664f51…
05-11 12:12:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xfde037…
05-10 11:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0x2df0a2…
05-10 10:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x3e3bd3…
05-10 10:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x6d19fe…
05-10 10:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x7e1b98…
05-10 10:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xbf05bc…
05-10 10:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x0cf801…
05-10 10:46:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xd1eb74…
05-09 21:21:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x2af53c…
05-09 21:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x24c143…
05-09 21:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x92bb34…
05-09 21:13:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	13	20¢	$3	0xb72621…
05-09 21:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xd380eb…
05-09 21:13:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xf5a07d…
05-09 19:24:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x436928…
05-09 19:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xe7d136…
05-09 19:23:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x194e9f…
05-09 19:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x61149c…
05-09 19:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xb8af19…
05-09 19:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1b608b…
05-09 19:21:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0xa2c280…
05-09 19:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x644492…
05-09 19:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x1e10d4…
05-09 19:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x7de120…
05-09 19:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x7a98f1…
05-09 19:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0xe0833e…
05-09 19:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x47ec97…
05-09 15:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xd4b969…
05-09 15:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xa2ec98…
05-09 15:18:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x6a8df6…
05-09 15:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	58	4¢	$2	0xaa5b36…
05-09 15:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x408d29…
05-09 15:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1a2fd3…
05-09 15:17:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x314736…
05-09 14:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x35e4f8…
05-09 14:56:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xc54a3f…
05-09 14:54:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x215a6e…
05-09 14:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x95d2e4…
05-09 14:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	72	3¢	$2	0x94827a…
05-09 14:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0x461c08…
05-09 14:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x3c5f6c…
05-09 14:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xceb354…
05-09 14:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x916739…
05-09 14:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x7cff4a…
05-09 14:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x31d774…
05-09 14:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x971e8a…
05-09 14:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x3ee342…
05-09 14:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x52274c…
05-09 14:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x12f378…