Probable-Crime — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$128

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

9,408

Trades

14,248

lifetime

Volume

$71.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 10-25 06:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 140 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 60% -$113

Sports

0% 57% -$5

Other

0% 20% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 724 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	6	$86	51	51	+0	Down	+$17	09-09 21:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	5	$67	41	41	+0	Down	+$14	09-09 21:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	16	$66	120	0	+120	Down	-$66	10-06 06:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 04:00 UTC	10	$64	93	0	+93	Down	-$32	08-23 04:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	12	$63	120	0	+120	Up	+$57	10-06 03:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	9	$63	97	0	+97	Down	+$33	08-23 06:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	1	$56	105	0	+105	Down	-$56	10-16 03:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	7	$51	76	0	+76	Down	-$51	08-23 21:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:40 UTC	1	$50	90	0	+90	Up	+$40	10-17 21:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$49	90	0	+90	Up	+$40	10-18 13:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 02:30 UTC	8	$48	90	0	+90	Up	+$42	10-15 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	1	$48	90	0	+90	Down	-$48	10-15 20:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	1	$47	90	0	+90	Up	+$43	10-19 13:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 11:15 UTC	1	$47	90	0	+90	Up	-$47	10-16 11:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 21:35 UTC	5	$46	0	50	-50	Down	-$4	09-24 21:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	7	$43	77	0	+77	Up	-$43	08-23 10:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	8	$43	80	0	+80	Down	-$43	10-06 06:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 04:20 UTC	8	$43	80	0	+80	Down	-$43	10-05 04:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	4	$43	22	22	+0	Up	+$2	05-19 10:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:35 UTC	2	$41	75	0	+75	Down	-$41	10-17 21:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 20:50 UTC	5	$41	0	50	-50	Down	-$9	09-24 20:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 18:05 UTC	1	$41	75	0	+75	Down	+$34	10-17 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 17:20 UTC	1	$40	75	0	+75	Up	+$34	10-16 17:19
Ethereum Up or Down - September 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	5	$40	80	0	+80	Up	+$40	09-29 02:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:50 UTC	5	$40	75	0	+75	Down	-$40	10-15 05:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	1	$40	75	0	+75	Down	-$40	10-18 13:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	1	$40	75	0	+75	Down	-$40	10-19 10:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 02:25 UTC	5	$40	75	0	+75	Down	-$40	10-15 02:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:15 UTC	5	$39	75	0	+75	Down	-$39	10-14 13:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 17:10 UTC	1	$39	75	0	+75	Down	-$39	10-16 17:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 06:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x4dc67b…
10-25 06:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x6d165e…
10-25 06:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x96ff6b…
10-25 05:49:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x42f88e…
10-25 05:49:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0xfead6d…
10-25 05:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xf6f5bb…
10-25 05:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xbedba4…
10-25 05:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x1edd81…
10-25 05:39:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x1c0adb…
10-25 05:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	19	55¢	$10	0x3b2559…
10-25 05:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	24	55¢	$13	0xf2115d…
10-25 05:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	24	55¢	$13	0x8920fe…
10-25 05:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x0f85ed…
10-25 05:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x327c41…
10-25 05:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xb3c7b4…
10-25 05:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xe0d64f…
10-25 04:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf25ed3…
10-25 04:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9b0603…
10-25 03:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x29c2b3…
10-25 03:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe1030f…
10-25 03:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x957557…
10-25 02:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x85ba51…
10-25 01:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0d27f3…
10-25 00:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x2bd759…
10-25 00:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x979393…
10-24 23:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xc7f6b5…
10-24 23:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xafeb7a…
10-24 23:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x12b8d5…
10-24 23:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xdf06c2…
10-24 23:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x511bc8…
10-24 23:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x350c40…
10-24 22:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xf921cd…
10-24 21:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x411153…
10-24 21:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xa3886b…
10-24 21:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x69e81c…
10-24 21:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe82e1f…
10-24 21:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xe0db19…
10-24 21:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xa65377…
10-24 21:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x918032…
10-24 21:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xe01471…
10-24 21:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x9afab7…
10-24 21:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7b300e…
10-24 21:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x6515fb…
10-24 21:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	24	55¢	$13	0x4acf6c…
10-24 21:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	55¢	$1	0x117d9c…
10-24 20:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x23b31c…
10-24 18:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xcf7f93…
10-24 16:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x46de44…
10-24 16:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6151bd…
10-24 15:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x847f87…
10-24 15:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xf157cf…
10-24 15:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x4cec86…
10-24 15:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x933909…
10-24 15:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xfb1e53…
10-24 15:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x43e53c…
10-24 15:04:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xfba530…
10-24 15:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x2864c2…
10-24 14:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x79144e…
10-24 14:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x549ca0…
10-24 14:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x50ce6b…
10-24 13:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xddb6f1…
10-24 13:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x714cc1…
10-24 12:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x1ec8fd…
10-24 12:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xf7a9f7…
10-24 12:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x61f7d5…
10-24 12:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0x68f736…
10-24 12:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x108b7f…
10-24 12:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x2f1721…
10-24 12:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x00f9bd…
10-24 11:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xae1e28…
10-24 10:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xb2d8fc…
10-24 10:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x0d89b0…
10-24 09:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xbea41c…
10-24 08:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x0d83d0…
10-24 07:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xa1cb6f…
10-24 07:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x8779c4…
10-24 06:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x15d8d1…
10-24 06:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0xb50547…
10-24 05:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf9d1a8…
10-24 05:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xa828b1…
10-24 05:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0xdd8f3c…
10-24 04:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xf26d8f…
10-24 03:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x4776c3…
10-24 03:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x0e693d…
10-24 01:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf2ad73…
10-24 00:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xd918f9…
10-24 00:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xe13506…
10-24 00:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x1f66f2…
10-24 00:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x800df5…
10-24 00:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe4bc81…
10-24 00:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x930c75…
10-24 00:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0xef7dec…
10-24 00:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x187056…
10-24 00:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x316345…
10-23 23:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x32eff5…
10-23 22:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x6ffea1…
10-23 22:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xc71f14…
10-23 22:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x549725…
10-23 22:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x2ca595…
10-23 22:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x11ca00…