Warm-Hake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

37.3%

Resolved

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$17.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$127

Open exposure

$170

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-15 07:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Other

46% 0% -$3

Crypto

39% 90% +$34

Politics

12% 0% -$1

Sports

3% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on November 15?	No		+171	$167	100¢	$170	+$4	11-15 07:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	6	$598	300	300	+0	No	$0	01-22 06:38
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	4	$399	200	200	+0	No	$0	01-21 12:32
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 400 419	2	$357	179	179	+0	No	$0	02-08 12:09
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$344	172	172	+0	No	$0	04-23 10:25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$343	172	172	+0	No	$0	04-28 06:06
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 460 479	2	$343	172	172	+0	No	$0	03-28 11:57
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 320 339	2	$343	172	172	+0	No	$0	04-07 03:59
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$343	172	172	+0	No	$0	04-13 13:50
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 80 99	2	$343	172	172	+0	No	$0	03-27 07:51
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$342	172	172	+0	No	$0	03-31 10:25
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$342	172	172	+0	No	$0	03-25 09:06
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$342	172	172	+0	open	—	05-19 08:23
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	2	$341	171	171	+0	open	—	06-22 01:42
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$341	171	171	+0	No	$0	07-06 05:09
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	2	$341	171	171	+0	open	—	07-19 10:41
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$341	171	171	+0	No	$0	08-29 15:45
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	2	$341	171	171	+0	open	—	09-29 05:28
us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	2	$341	171	171	+0	No	$0	06-29 03:01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	2	$341	171	171	+0	open	—	11-15 07:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$340	172	172	+0	No	$0	05-13 07:03
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 120 139	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-19 05:22
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 580plus	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-06 14:19
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 120 139	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-23 07:49
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 160 179	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	02-04 09:55
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 120 139	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-15 12:05
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 215 239	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-17 11:12
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 300 319	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-22 13:30
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 240 259	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-31 06:30
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 100 119	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-12 08:27
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 120 139	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-27 15:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 07:49:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on November 15?	No	BUY	171	98¢	$167	0xe5ffcd…
11-15 07:48:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	171	100¢	$170	0x25becd…
11-15 07:47:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x538932…
09-29 05:29:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 29?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x169232…
09-29 05:28:21	Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	171	100¢	$171	0xb4efce…
09-29 05:28:09	Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0xa7d621…
08-29 15:46:19	will bitcoin reach 84k on august 29 2026	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0xa8be6e…
08-29 15:45:51	Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	171	100¢	$171	0x1745e9…
08-29 15:45:36	Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x07ba6b…
07-19 10:42:33	will bitcoin reach 70k july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x57f2ef…
07-19 10:41:43	Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	171	100¢	$171	0x36aa0b…
07-19 10:41:31	Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x367894…
07-06 05:10:37	will bitcoin dip to 57k on july 6	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x9feddf…
07-06 05:09:53	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	171	100¢	$171	0xe591d2…
07-06 05:09:38	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x4ddb87…
06-29 03:02:43	bitcoin above 54k on june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0xbc3411…
06-29 03:01:46	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	SELL	171	100¢	$170	0x9d9be9…
06-29 03:01:34	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x4a2aa7…
06-22 01:44:13	bitcoin above 58k on june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x16d792…
06-22 01:42:08	Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	171	100¢	$171	0x752961…
06-22 01:41:49	Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0xb7f353…
05-26 14:30:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x4c55e2…
05-26 14:20:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x898c9d…
05-19 08:23:35	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xd53b5f…
05-19 08:23:14	Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	172	99¢	$171	0x9e8baa…
05-19 08:23:07	Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	172	99¢	$171	0x78437a…
05-13 07:03:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x2a42fc…
05-13 07:03:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	172	99¢	$170	0x5ac0b4…
05-13 07:02:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	172	99¢	$170	0xcfa98c…
04-28 06:07:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x7f74f1…
04-28 06:06:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	172	100¢	$172	0x36f28b…
04-28 06:06:18	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x01ae8b…
04-25 04:41:52	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xf2bc0b…
04-23 10:25:50	will bitcoin reach 85k on april 23	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x62a3e2…
04-23 10:25:18	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	172	100¢	$172	0x6568fd…
04-23 10:25:10	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x7244ee…
04-20 06:13:26	bitcoin above 68k on april 20	Yes	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xbc0b13…
04-13 13:51:53	will bitcoin reach 77k on april 13	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xeb3789…
04-13 13:50:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	172	100¢	$171	0x1736e1…
04-13 13:50:01	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x998206…
04-07 04:00:21	will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on april 7	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xd49c97…
04-07 03:59:27	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 320 339	No	SELL	172	100¢	$171	0xa81812…
04-07 03:58:53	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 320 339	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x0da5f0…
03-31 10:26:01	will bitcoin reach 75k on march 31	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x012969…
03-31 10:25:15	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	172	99¢	$171	0x33a89a…
03-31 10:25:05	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	172	99¢	$171	0x1b8776…
03-28 11:57:45	will bitcoin reach 74k on march 28	No	BUY	172	100¢	$171	0x9762af…
03-28 11:57:17	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 460 479	No	SELL	172	100¢	$172	0xbf9584…
03-28 11:57:07	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 460 479	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xa1578b…
03-27 07:56:25	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on march 27	No	BUY	172	100¢	$171	0xd85c78…
03-27 07:51:31	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 80 99	No	SELL	172	100¢	$171	0x54c33a…
03-27 07:51:21	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 80 99	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xe8d264…
03-25 09:07:13	bitcoin above 64k on march 25	Yes	BUY	172	100¢	$171	0x7715aa…
03-25 09:06:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	172	100¢	$171	0xc4f3b2…
03-25 09:06:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$171	0x6cbca4…
03-22 13:31:27	bitcoin above 80k on march 23	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2b50df…
03-22 13:30:57	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 300 319	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf56351…
03-22 13:30:43	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 300 319	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x12e3c2…
03-19 05:24:01	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 19	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc30f4f…
03-19 05:22:55	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 120 139	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x420c50…
03-19 05:22:43	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 120 139	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x350d3d…
03-19 05:18:35	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 360 379	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe41e97…
03-19 05:18:23	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 360 379	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0a4a9b…
03-17 11:13:33	will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on march 17	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x599008…
03-17 11:12:39	elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 215 239	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xefc02e…
03-17 11:12:27	elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 215 239	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe2e95f…
03-15 12:06:29	will bitcoin dip to 64k march 9 15	Yes	BUY	4,000	0¢	$8	0x9c8e5d…
03-15 12:06:07	will bitcoin dip to 64k march 9 15	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0ffab5…
03-15 12:05:29	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 120 139	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf01a10…
03-15 12:05:17	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 120 139	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0f40fe…
03-12 08:27:49	bitcoin above 62k on march 12	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xdad0d3…
03-12 08:27:05	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 100 119	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x15fc5d…
03-12 08:26:45	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 100 119	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x621462…
03-09 06:55:51	will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 9	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe9d8b3…
03-09 06:54:53	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 80 99	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xae112a…
03-09 06:54:41	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 80 99	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x6e5245…
03-06 14:20:47	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 6	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x8c977c…
03-06 14:19:53	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 580plus	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x858558…
03-06 14:19:37	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 580plus	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xca4a50…
03-02 11:32:59	will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on march 2	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x36dfb0…
03-02 11:32:09	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe78dd5…
03-02 11:31:25	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x783ef6…
03-01 05:54:17	bitcoin above 74k on march 1	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xaf65c9…
03-01 05:53:35	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x8e647e…
03-01 05:53:17	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf4e423…
02-10 13:40:31	bitcoin above 74k on february 10	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5cb705…
02-10 13:39:35	will gold gc hit high 6400 by end of february 581 221 834 595 555	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x28bc36…
02-10 13:39:17	will gold gc hit high 6400 by end of february 581 221 834 595 555	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xa04c42…
02-08 12:10:07	bitcoin above 76k on february 8	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x8a15d2…
02-08 12:09:15	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 400 419	No	SELL	179	100¢	$179	0xf3652e…
02-08 12:09:03	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 400 419	No	BUY	179	100¢	$179	0xe48b77…
02-04 09:56:08	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on february 4	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0cfc4a…
02-04 09:55:40	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 160 179	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd2ab52…
02-04 09:55:26	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 160 179	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x116839…
02-02 13:07:06	bitcoin above 84k on february 2	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0806e9…
02-02 13:06:32	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 580 599	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x478977…
02-02 13:06:10	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 580 599	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf7303d…
01-31 06:34:06	bitcoin above 88k on january 31	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x6515cb…
01-31 06:30:40	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 240 259	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x375ab6…
01-31 06:30:12	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 240 259	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa1d49b…