Tricky-Model — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.6%

Resolved

273

Trades

328

lifetime

Volume

$50.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$153

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 08-22 01:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 98% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 13:35 UTC	11	$396	202	200	+2	Up	+$2	03-26 13:39
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 12:10 UTC	11	$339	202	200	+2	Down	-$56	03-17 12:13
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	13	$290	219	94	+125	Up	+$19	03-30 11:29
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 00:15 UTC	12	$271	200	74	+126	Down	-$125	03-26 00:19
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:20 UTC	6	$236	202	39	+163	Down	+$4	03-29 17:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	2	$218	202	20	+182	Up	+$4	03-30 11:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:25 UTC	2	$218	202	20	+182	Up	+$4	03-30 04:29
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:40 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-29 22:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 22:40 UTC	1	$198	206	0	+206	Up	+$8	03-25 22:42
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 06:35 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-23 06:37
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 13:30 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	03-24 13:33
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 02:45 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	03-30 02:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 05:50 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	03-29 05:54
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 00:15 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-11 00:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 11:25 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-22 11:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 13:30 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	03-28 13:32
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 15:00 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	03-23 15:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 22:20 UTC	1	$198	206	0	+206	Up	+$8	07-01 22:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 23:10 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-28 23:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 05:15 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	03-21 05:18
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 11:15 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	-$198	03-25 11:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 06:50 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	03-11 06:52
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 21:20 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-28 21:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 23:45 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-21 23:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 21:10 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-10 21:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	05-20 15:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 13:40 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	03-28 13:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 09:30 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-26 09:32
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 00:15 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Up	+$2	03-30 00:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:00 UTC	1	$198	200	0	+200	Down	+$2	03-29 22:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-22 01:59:51	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 01:55 UTC	Down	BUY	283	70¢	$198	0xc20f08…
08-01 10:44:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xca265a…
07-25 20:19:24	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x105990…
07-12 22:00:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 21:55 UTC	Down	BUY	11,023	1¢	$110	0x3ab185…
07-12 22:00:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 21:55 UTC	Down	BUY	8,777	1¢	$88	0x24d9a8…
07-04 15:09:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 15:05 UTC	Up	BUY	208	95¢	$198	0x7f90b1…
07-01 22:24:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	206	96¢	$198	0x8af29d…
06-28 02:24:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 02:20 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x1a8063…
06-23 03:04:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 03:00 UTC	Down	BUY	202	98¢	$198	0x4338b4…
06-18 17:29:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	201	99¢	$198	0xd1ba73…
05-25 06:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x6f1980…
05-20 15:19:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x7dbe85…
05-13 12:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xf9fdaa…
05-03 11:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	78	86¢	$66	0x8bd106…
05-01 00:04:54	XRP Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xe7b233…
04-30 04:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x4f3730…
04-27 05:14:06	Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x7489e4…
04-26 14:24:08	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xd9fabb…
04-25 22:34:04	Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	54	99¢	$53	0xec4bea…
04-24 04:39:42	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 04:35 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xc9fa67…
04-23 00:19:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 00:15 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x6c1f67…
04-22 07:19:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xad863b…
04-20 13:09:10	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x0f87da…
04-19 20:49:12	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xfd2cad…
04-18 08:04:34	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x87d3f8…
04-16 15:39:08	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0xcd2740…
04-16 15:29:56	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x9e1537…
04-16 13:34:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x215c87…
04-11 18:34:13	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	191	99¢	$189	0x182c79…
04-02 14:35:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	204	97¢	$198	0x98ca15…
04-01 08:54:27	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 08:50 UTC	Down	BUY	204	97¢	$198	0x792f6c…
03-31 13:49:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x688280…
03-31 09:57:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	160	99¢	$159	0xd3fb30…
03-31 09:57:07	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xf9f40f…
03-31 07:18:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x82593d…
03-31 04:29:45	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x9b82d8…
03-31 04:29:41	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	204	97¢	$198	0x0ee004…
03-31 04:29:35	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	204	97¢	$198	0xdedfc2…
03-31 01:32:55	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x0cbb0f…
03-31 00:34:05	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x8dbc2b…
03-30 23:02:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xf0ccfd…
03-30 22:07:51	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x589de4…
03-30 21:23:27	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 21:20 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x5d146f…
03-30 17:28:09	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x605d25…
03-30 17:23:49	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x5e29fa…
03-30 14:57:41	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 14:55 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x0d8d05…
03-30 11:29:46	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x15c66a…
03-30 11:29:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xc9c746…
03-30 11:29:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x9849f6…
03-30 11:29:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x930ab6…
03-30 11:29:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x85ec73…
03-30 11:29:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x786718…
03-30 11:29:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x4281a4…
03-30 11:29:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$2	0x21951b…
03-30 11:29:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x20a51f…
03-30 11:29:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xbe20aa…
03-30 11:29:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xb0df10…
03-30 11:29:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x13894f…
03-30 11:29:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x7d629d…
03-30 11:28:08	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x3b72f3…
03-30 11:27:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	202	98¢	$198	0x177812…
03-30 11:27:50	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	219	90¢	$198	0x8143cb…
03-30 07:48:02	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xac6620…
03-30 07:08:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 07:05 UTC	Up	BUY	204	97¢	$198	0xc60883…
03-30 04:29:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:25 UTC	Up	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x84d2a2…
03-30 04:28:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:25 UTC	Up	BUY	202	98¢	$198	0x5cc103…
03-30 04:08:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:05 UTC	Up	BUY	202	98¢	$198	0x6c1bcc…
03-30 02:47:46	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x2405dc…
03-30 02:47:08	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x46b30f…
03-30 02:43:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 02:40 UTC	Up	BUY	202	98¢	$198	0x0108ab…
03-30 00:23:40	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 00:20 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xe06af8…
03-30 00:18:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 00:15 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x5082b9…
03-30 00:18:10	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 00:15 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xb31c66…
03-29 22:58:00	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:55 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xd6fab2…
03-29 22:48:26	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xf5b084…
03-29 22:48:18	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x63c2c1…
03-29 22:42:52	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x95afba…
03-29 22:42:08	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xe9e231…
03-29 22:42:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x7b1daf…
03-29 22:07:06	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x279e7b…
03-29 22:02:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x75ccca…
03-29 22:02:06	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xe59f4f…
03-29 20:23:20	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x88dbc7…
03-29 20:23:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x5a3817…
03-29 17:43:50	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:40 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x7dbf4a…
03-29 17:23:28	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x49203a…
03-29 17:23:24	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:20 UTC	Down	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xa3684b…
03-29 17:23:24	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:20 UTC	Down	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x087498…
03-29 17:23:18	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:20 UTC	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x972966…
03-29 17:23:16	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:20 UTC	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x6ce77c…
03-29 17:23:14	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa61ee5…
03-29 17:22:20	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	202	98¢	$198	0x52c38b…
03-29 17:22:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	204	97¢	$198	0xe25823…
03-29 15:27:30	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xfad115…
03-29 15:27:24	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x258e45…
03-29 14:12:22	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x5a98b4…
03-29 14:12:16	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x2057c4…
03-29 14:12:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xfaaa05…
03-29 13:08:12	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x79b5fc…
03-29 13:07:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	211	94¢	$198	0x74106a…