Outlying-Swamp — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$114

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.7%

Resolved

776

Trades

931

lifetime

Volume

$2.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 10-14 12:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 52% -$47

Other

35% 41% -$71

Sports

1% 17% +$4

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 156 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be less than $303,000 on December 31?	2	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	10-04 18:21
will spacexai officially rename itself to spacexsi by october 31	2	$31	22	22	+0	Yes	-$7	10-04 18:38
Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?	3	$26	22	22	+0	open	—	10-04 18:37
highest temperature in paris on april 6 2026 18c	3	$23	22	22	+0	No	+$21	04-06 17:30
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,062,000 and $1,083,000 on December 31?	3	$23	44	44	+0	open	—	10-04 21:39
Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?	2	$18	22	22	+0	open	—	10-04 20:59
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3?	2	$18	10	10	+0	No	+$1	06-03 21:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	4	$15	20	0	+20	Up	+$5	05-28 11:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	3	$15	18	10	+9	Down	+$4	05-20 16:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$13	11	11	+0	Up	+$3	05-20 16:33
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	2	$13	22	22	+0	Yes	$0	10-04 21:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:05 UTC	1	$10	19	0	+19	Up	-$10	10-14 12:04
highest temperature in london on april 2 2026 12c	1	$10	19	0	+19	Yes	-$10	04-01 13:43
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	1	$10	12	0	+12	Yes	+$2	03-27 13:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$10	19	0	+19	Down	-$10	05-23 17:19
highest temperature in hong kong on april 1 2026 28c	2	$10	6	6	+0	No	+$2	04-01 10:26
Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $8 in 2026?	2	$9	22	22	+0	open	—	10-04 21:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	1	$9	18	0	+18	Down	-$9	10-14 12:11
highest temperature in chongqing on april 7 2026 23c	12	$9	1,125	1,125	+0	Yes	+$4	04-07 12:23
highest temperature in munich on april 7 2026 19c	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$1	04-07 20:01
highest temperature in warsaw on april 8 2026 10c	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$1	04-08 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$9	6	6	+0	Down	+$3	05-20 16:14
highest temperature in shanghai on april 6 2026 23c	2	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$1	04-06 02:11
highest temperature in miami on april 8 2026 76 77f	2	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$2	04-08 20:18
highest temperature in hong kong on april 8 2026 27c	2	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$2	04-08 12:36
highest temperature in shanghai on april 6 2026 24c	2	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$2	04-06 03:50
highest temperature in taipei on april 2 2026 24c	2	$8	44	42	+2	No	+$0	04-01 23:06
highest temperature in wuhan on april 8 2026 21c	2	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$2	04-08 03:24
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 8 2026 27c	2	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$2	04-08 12:36
highest temperature in beijing on april 8 2026 22c	2	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$2	04-08 06:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 12:11:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0x9d2963…
10-14 12:04:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:05 UTC	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x325f93…
10-14 07:04:32	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6f4968…
10-14 07:04:28	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x279833…
10-14 06:49:43	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 06:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xc168ee…
10-14 06:49:41	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 06:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x8ce2d0…
10-14 06:44:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x9f3ab5…
10-14 06:09:19	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 06:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x4c46ac…
10-14 06:04:46	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 06:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xbece73…
10-14 06:04:40	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 06:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x64d3c3…
10-14 05:54:46	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 05:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x09d649…
10-14 05:14:31	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfabde5…
10-14 05:09:32	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 05:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x8dfea7…
10-14 04:59:37	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 05:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xd3bfb1…
10-14 04:54:34	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 04:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4a13e6…
10-14 04:39:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 04:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xd979cb…
10-14 04:29:44	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfe4d8c…
10-14 04:29:41	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa796b9…
10-14 03:59:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xd5b53e…
10-14 03:59:32	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe54b17…
10-14 03:39:46	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 03:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x911c42…
10-14 03:39:41	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 03:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x644cea…
10-14 03:34:44	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 03:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd9048c…
10-14 03:34:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 03:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x637c48…
10-14 03:09:40	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 03:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x22613c…
10-14 03:04:46	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x862668…
10-14 03:04:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x6da294…
10-14 02:59:23	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x17484c…
10-14 02:49:35	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc01023…
10-14 02:49:35	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xab40ba…
10-14 02:49:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xf5dfb4…
10-14 02:44:43	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x2e79df…
10-14 02:29:23	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x78a64d…
10-14 01:39:34	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 01:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x80bf6d…
10-14 01:09:42	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 01:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb44082…
10-14 01:09:28	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 01:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x43f77b…
10-14 00:49:36	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 00:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xeb981f…
10-14 00:34:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 00:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x00c58e…
10-14 00:29:33	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x24db91…
10-14 00:19:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 00:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x4302f6…
10-14 00:09:27	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x4799d5…
10-13 19:04:43	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe8351b…
10-13 19:04:43	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x567e2d…
10-13 19:04:43	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x041e77…
10-13 18:34:42	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x204d5a…
10-13 18:29:28	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb721d3…
10-13 18:19:31	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x50e9f1…
10-13 17:54:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x90cf1e…
10-13 17:44:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6ed6ad…
10-13 17:19:33	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x76a891…
10-13 16:39:45	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xaa007f…
10-13 15:49:43	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xa2f7db…
10-13 15:49:18	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x419efb…
10-13 15:19:46	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x52d12e…
10-13 14:24:25	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 14:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x764c3c…
10-13 14:14:26	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x538e06…
10-13 14:04:47	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 14:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x6de35e…
10-13 13:54:44	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x9b9882…
10-13 13:44:43	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xed4636…
10-13 13:44:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x3d36d5…
10-13 13:29:31	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xc4056f…
10-13 13:14:35	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xaa3326…
10-13 12:49:41	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa4eb76…
10-13 12:49:37	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x4327e3…
10-13 12:19:43	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe0f0c7…
10-13 12:19:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x93af96…
10-13 11:24:41	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x98992a…
10-13 11:24:41	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x610c03…
10-13 11:24:16	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc85208…
10-13 11:19:38	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3d0877…
10-13 11:14:40	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xec8114…
10-13 11:04:29	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xae7235…
10-13 10:44:14	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x26e4ca…
10-13 10:44:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x703c9b…
10-13 10:34:10	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x461c07…
10-13 10:29:47	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x29f2d5…
10-13 10:24:43	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x4540a7…
10-13 10:24:31	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x602542…
10-13 10:14:43	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xc55ad7…
10-13 10:14:38	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8d190b…
10-13 10:04:32	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xdb1f03…
10-13 09:39:46	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x5fe39b…
10-13 09:39:40	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x36f104…
10-13 09:39:35	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa337e1…
10-13 09:04:43	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x9e2943…
10-13 09:04:38	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x83c8f9…
10-13 09:04:35	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xb3bb74…
10-13 09:04:35	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x784947…
10-13 09:04:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x2ee3d9…
10-13 08:59:40	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7f52e4…
10-13 08:59:40	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x27fb50…
10-13 08:59:38	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb9ad74…
10-13 08:59:29	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x6ee364…
10-13 08:59:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x3b16f5…
10-13 08:49:38	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x226d9e…
10-09 04:59:36	BNB Up or Down - October 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6f6bd5…
10-09 04:59:31	Solana Up or Down - October 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe874eb…
10-09 04:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x0522b1…
10-09 04:54:40	XRP Up or Down - October 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xf014c8…
10-09 04:34:25	Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x33d3f5…