Nervous-Partner — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.72K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.5%

Resolved

212

Trades

444

lifetime

Volume

$3.47K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 10-25 09:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 38% -$590

Other

19% 15% -$150

Politics

15% 27% +$6,460

Tech

0% 0% -$5

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 08:35 UTC	2	$222	137	136	+1	Down	+$23	03-17 08:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 08:10 UTC	2	$204	106	106	+0	Down	+$5	03-17 08:15
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$182	825	825	+0	No	-$16	03-05 20:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 22:35 UTC	4	$170	142	141	+1	Down	+$111	03-08 22:40
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	2	$167	325	325	+0	Yes	-$33	05-27 20:54
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	3	$92	288	288	+0	No	-$28	05-31 19:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 20:00 UTC	1	$83	301	0	+301	Up	-$83	03-05 20:00
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	3	$70	202	0	+202	Up	-$70	05-27 21:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 09:10 UTC	1	$69	210	0	+210	Down	-$69	03-17 09:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 09:05 UTC	1	$57	379	0	+379	Up	-$57	03-17 09:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 23:35 UTC	1	$53	161	0	+161	Down	-$53	03-08 23:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	4	$52	537	34	+502	Up	-$8	09-08 20:38
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	6	$52	88	88	+0	No	+$14	06-23 15:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 23:05 UTC	3	$48	32	31	+0	Down	+$15	03-08 23:10
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	3	$45	150	150	+0	No	-$15	06-24 05:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$41	21	21	+0	Down	+$1	05-31 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$40	111	0	+111	Up	-$40	10-25 09:56
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	2	$40	4,444	0	+4,444	No	+$4,404	05-25 12:28
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	2	$39	2,157	0	+2,157	No	+$2,118	05-25 15:03
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	4	$38	62	62	+0	No	+$14	06-29 05:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:40 UTC	9	$37	33	33	+0	Down	+$3	06-21 18:44
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	2	$37	490	490	+0	Yes	-$3	09-08 19:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 17:35 UTC	4	$36	18	18	+0	Down	+$0	06-20 17:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 22:50 UTC	3	$36	56	32	+25	Up	+$2	03-08 22:53
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	7	$35	64	64	+0	No	+$11	06-22 20:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	2	$34	24	24	+0	Down	+$14	05-25 13:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 20:25 UTC	3	$33	21	21	+0	Down	+$9	06-20 20:29
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	3	$32	103	103	+0	No	-$8	06-24 11:56
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	2	$32	22	22	+0	Sharks	+$6	05-27 18:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 22:05 UTC	3	$30	1,168	0	+1,168	Up	-$30	03-08 22:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 09:59:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x35680c…
10-25 09:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x68b671…
10-25 09:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0xae56f9…
10-25 09:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x9ef3e3…
10-25 09:52:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xaf1800…
10-25 09:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x5e6674…
09-09 18:31:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb2fd6e…
09-08 20:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x4d1ca0…
09-08 20:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xe601db…
09-08 20:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	431	2¢	$10	0x0b4968…
09-08 20:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xae7c55…
09-08 20:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	34	65¢	$22	0x3e94b1…
09-08 20:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xbce555…
09-08 20:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xc451d9…
09-08 20:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xa9d3be…
09-08 20:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x435b74…
09-08 19:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	9	63¢	$6	0xba0e4a…
09-08 19:54:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb17aaa…
09-08 19:53:19	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	SELL	490	3¢	$17	0x6efd80…
09-08 19:43:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x044b22…
09-08 19:39:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x74a70c…
09-08 19:38:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xde60ca…
09-08 19:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x7a0cb1…
09-08 19:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x686463…
09-08 19:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xde555f…
09-08 19:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0x142ffe…
09-08 19:12:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xb4e14d…
09-08 19:04:33	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	490	4¢	$20	0x1c2bf6…
07-02 12:08:55	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0x4a0a00…
07-02 12:08:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0x00c79f…
06-30 07:31:17	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x8e862a…
06-30 07:30:52	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	4¢	$2	0xfdfe26…
06-29 21:26:25	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x844a3e…
06-29 05:26:20	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0xf6b840…
06-29 05:25:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x8d259d…
06-29 05:24:28	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	47¢	$15	0x6b1d2d…
06-28 17:53:20	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xb90973…
06-28 17:53:16	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x5ddb4a…
06-28 17:52:41	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	37¢	$11	0x087761…
06-28 16:40:47	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0xd8fb08…
06-26 09:43:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x083f63…
06-26 09:43:11	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	8¢	$3	0xcca434…
06-24 11:56:55	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	20¢	$12	0x602dea…
06-24 11:56:32	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	12¢	$12	0xa7b93e…
06-24 07:11:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x70c628…
06-24 07:04:58	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x336538…
06-24 05:54:04	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x857959…
06-24 05:53:47	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	10¢	$15	0x7d0b26…
06-23 18:28:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 18:25 UTC	Up	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x03fbd9…
06-23 18:24:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 18:20 UTC	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x84c867…
06-23 18:19:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 18:15 UTC	Up	SELL	14	67¢	$10	0x9a2606…
06-23 18:19:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x3df350…
06-23 18:15:14	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x6632ef…
06-23 18:11:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 18:10 UTC	Down	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0x479fbe…
06-23 18:06:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x8dcf7f…
06-23 18:01:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x50bd20…
06-23 18:00:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 17:55 UTC	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xc47536…
06-23 17:57:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 17:55 UTC	Down	SELL	12	62¢	$7	0x4f6b09…
06-23 17:57:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0xf0bbb2…
06-23 17:57:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xf58a27…
06-23 17:54:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 17:50 UTC	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xf746e3…
06-23 17:41:34	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	22¢	$7	0xb74224…
06-23 17:40:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 17:35 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x435833…
06-23 17:39:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 17:35 UTC	Down	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x933ab3…
06-23 17:39:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 17:35 UTC	Down	SELL	9	74¢	$7	0x4cdc83…
06-23 17:35:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 17:35 UTC	Down	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0xbb285b…
06-23 16:16:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x9f7bc0…
06-23 16:15:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x88b29c…
06-23 16:02:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 16:00 UTC	Down	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x1a8e63…
06-23 16:01:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x2f19ff…
06-23 16:00:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc70d05…
06-23 15:59:11	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0x2412cb…
06-23 15:24:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x9a94a8…
06-23 15:24:08	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	37¢	$6	0x6b1eda…
06-23 10:48:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0xc3fe10…
06-23 10:47:46	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x917acc…
06-23 10:47:11	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	38¢	$25	0x9bed8c…
06-23 06:00:26	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0xc78a49…
06-23 04:14:31	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	27¢	$12	0x8baee6…
06-22 20:51:10	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0x1194e1…
06-22 20:48:34	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	47¢	$11	0x6587a0…
06-22 18:24:22	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0xe32f0d…
06-21 19:26:31	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	10¢	$7	0x0ca183…
06-21 19:19:13	IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium?	Yes	SELL	41	20¢	$8	0x3ed08e…
06-21 19:13:53	IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium?	Yes	BUY	41	27¢	$11	0xc70e45…
06-21 18:54:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:50 UTC	Down	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x0fe3e6…
06-21 18:54:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x5ef037…
06-21 18:53:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:50 UTC	Down	SELL	6	73¢	$4	0x24a295…
06-21 18:53:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xabbd9b…
06-21 18:52:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:50 UTC	Down	SELL	6	73¢	$5	0xef0bd2…
06-21 18:51:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:50 UTC	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x542c35…
06-21 18:49:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x5b7c86…
06-21 18:46:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:45 UTC	Down	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0xfbc184…
06-21 18:45:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x207303…
06-21 18:44:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:40 UTC	Down	SELL	9	86¢	$8	0x5bcc02…
06-21 18:42:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x260993…
06-21 18:41:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x774fd4…
06-21 18:41:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:40 UTC	Down	SELL	9	48¢	$4	0xf013ec…
06-21 18:40:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x65ebce…
06-21 18:40:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:40 UTC	Up	SELL	15	54¢	$8	0x14728a…