Harsh-Obligation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$321

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.1%

Resolved

Trades

118

lifetime

Volume

$26.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$222

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 10-13 23:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

79% 79% -$562

Politics

21% 100% +$241

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	17	$4.1K	5,205	0	+5,205	Yes	-$740	07-24 04:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$3.0K	3,093	0	+3,093	No	+$93	05-15 00:55
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	3	$2.7K	1,511	1,511	+0	Yes	+$40	10-09 23:05
will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	13	$1.5K	1,358	474	+884	No	+$27	07-24 04:12
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	6	$1.5K	1,551	1,551	+0	No	-$1,040	08-05 23:36
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	8	$1.4K	1,870	0	+1,870	Yes	+$487	09-02 06:06
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	3	$1.3K	698	698	+0	No	+$68	10-09 23:05
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$1.3K	1,300	0	+1,300	Yes	+$46	05-07 01:32
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	6	$1.2K	1,360	1,360	+0	No	-$990	08-05 23:36
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 1, 2026?	3	$1.2K	999	294	+704	No	+$122	09-02 05:00
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	7	$1.1K	1,137	0	+1,137	No	+$31	08-05 23:37
Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	2	$954	1,702	0	+1,702	Yes	+$749	10-09 23:14
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	1	$910	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$90	05-13 23:44
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	9	$822	1,486	0	+1,486	Yes	+$664	10-09 23:15
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	2	$666	500	500	+0	Yes	-$224	05-15 11:31
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	4	$420	500	500	+0	open	—	10-01 16:57
will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	6	$380	428	0	+428	No	+$48	07-14 17:38
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	1	$287	300	0	+300	Yes	+$13	05-07 01:33
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	1	$239	307	0	+307	Yes	+$68	09-02 06:03
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	4	$232	247	0	+247	No	-$232	08-04 02:24
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?	1	$200	218	0	+218	No	+$18	07-14 05:47
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	3	$186	100	100	+0	Yes	+$10	05-14 04:22
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	2	$168	360	0	+360	Yes	+$192	10-09 23:07
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	3	$165	100	100	+0	Yes	+$25	05-14 04:22
will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	5	$128	145	0	+145	No	+$17	07-24 01:17
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	2	$67	100	0	+100	No	+$33	05-07 02:34
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 15, 2026?	1	$59	66	0	+66	No	+$7	10-13 23:15
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	2	$55	110	0	+110	Yes	+$55	10-09 23:08
will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	1	$32	35	0	+35	No	+$3	07-14 18:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 23:15:30	Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	66	89¢	$59	0x0cc73d…
10-09 23:15:43	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	61¢	$116	0xee3953…
10-09 23:14:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x13492f…
10-09 23:13:49	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0xfbe31f…
10-09 23:12:13	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	58¢	$15	0x5d433a…
10-09 23:12:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	58¢	$84	0x8a3a99…
10-09 23:12:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x43a0cc…
10-09 23:10:46	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	381	56¢	$213	0xda0b6e…
10-09 23:09:50	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,652	56¢	$925	0x7cc9a7…
10-09 23:09:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	54¢	$138	0xa420f5…
10-09 23:08:32	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x2439e8…
10-09 23:08:20	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	51¢	$31	0x292ef6…
10-09 23:08:04	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	322	51¢	$164	0x093b65…
10-09 23:07:44	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xec70c5…
10-09 23:07:10	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	47¢	$136	0x3c51b4…
10-09 23:06:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	46¢	$32	0x25d118…
10-09 23:05:43	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,511	90¢	$1,360	0xdbacbf…
10-09 23:05:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	698	98¢	$681	0xbd090b…
10-06 04:48:04	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	581	88¢	$511	0xaa9e94…
10-06 04:47:25	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	557	88¢	$490	0x9ea141…
10-06 04:46:31	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	930	87¢	$809	0x7fbe8c…
10-06 04:45:49	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	141	87¢	$123	0x30cb56…
10-01 16:57:21	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	500	19¢	$95	0x9127ad…
09-27 19:36:50	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	394	65¢	$256	0x47ee80…
09-27 19:33:59	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x5905b5…
09-27 13:21:12	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xa5030b…
09-02 06:06:07	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	151	79¢	$120	0x570388…
09-02 06:04:18	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	78¢	$172	0xbb4281…
09-02 06:03:04	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	307	78¢	$239	0x92f041…
09-02 06:02:27	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	78¢	$168	0x7f756a…
09-02 05:02:34	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	324	78¢	$252	0x992da1…
09-02 05:02:00	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0xfa0e3d…
09-02 05:00:39	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 1, 2026?	No	SELL	294	97¢	$286	0xc4c96e…
09-01 18:08:54	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	566	70¢	$396	0x0cdc36…
09-01 18:08:04	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	69¢	$110	0x89ca1f…
09-01 18:04:30	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	69¢	$134	0x32d75a…
09-01 02:43:43	next google gemini flash model 3pt8 released by september 1 2026	No	BUY	939	87¢	$817	0x150d12…
09-01 02:43:24	next google gemini flash model 3pt8 released by september 1 2026	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x20a711…
08-05 23:37:42	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0xd2a7a1…
08-05 23:36:44	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,360	9¢	$127	0xb15166…
08-05 23:36:09	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	SELL	1,551	15¢	$236	0xde298f…
08-04 02:30:15	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xc5136f…
08-04 02:30:08	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	741	97¢	$722	0x1bee39…
08-04 02:27:53	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	153	97¢	$149	0xd38b14…
08-04 02:27:32	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xbae8d9…
08-04 02:27:23	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xcdaba5…
08-04 02:27:12	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x970a47…
08-04 02:24:29	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x6398e2…
08-04 02:24:17	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xc8534c…
08-04 02:23:09	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	58	94¢	$55	0x59ac14…
08-04 02:22:38	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	108	94¢	$102	0x8b2da1…
08-04 02:22:15	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	554	90¢	$500	0xf30cb4…
08-04 02:12:03	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	18	87¢	$15	0x2aec2c…
08-04 02:11:59	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	270	88¢	$237	0x94dc2c…
08-04 02:01:18	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xa65c66…
08-04 02:01:14	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	83¢	$55	0x931dd5…
08-04 02:01:12	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	310	83¢	$257	0xa8c4b1…
08-04 01:59:51	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	608	82¢	$500	0xd62cac…
08-04 01:58:50	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	369	81¢	$300	0x848f8c…
08-04 01:57:57	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	487	87¢	$424	0x14ca11…
07-31 03:40:36	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0xaf37ae…
07-24 04:14:19	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	94¢	$170	0x0d029c…
07-24 04:12:43	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	281	94¢	$265	0xf92564…
07-24 04:12:09	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x540b9e…
07-24 04:10:37	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	94¢	$84	0x441101…
07-24 04:09:52	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x0822dc…
07-24 03:22:43	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	94¢	$189	0x690d06…
07-24 03:19:57	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	94¢	$151	0x98e3fd…
07-24 03:19:18	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	94¢	$194	0x543b60…
07-24 03:17:37	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	93¢	$47	0x1cf4ac…
07-24 03:17:03	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	No	BUY	213	94¢	$199	0xef054e…
07-24 01:17:40	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	No	BUY	45	94¢	$43	0x81d7a3…
07-24 01:16:43	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	93¢	$167	0x680306…
07-24 01:15:40	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	No	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0x259985…
07-15 08:39:50	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xe2af6d…
07-15 00:54:22	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x54cca0…
07-15 00:39:04	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	No	BUY	28	85¢	$24	0x0fad94…
07-14 20:38:43	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	No	BUY	44	85¢	$37	0x365516…
07-14 18:49:07	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	No	BUY	120	90¢	$108	0x976b5a…
07-14 18:47:38	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	885	91¢	$805	0x30994a…
07-14 18:45:41	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xb537ff…
07-14 18:41:50	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	No	BUY	185	89¢	$166	0x5d2cb0…
07-14 18:38:08	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	No	BUY	206	90¢	$185	0x75f4d1…
07-14 18:35:34	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x05bf48…
07-14 18:26:01	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 24 2026	No	BUY	35	92¢	$32	0x9632ba…
07-14 17:38:47	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xd67378…
07-14 17:38:46	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	944	38¢	$360	0xf93de0…
07-14 17:38:46	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	75	88¢	$66	0x6e8bb1…
07-14 17:37:47	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	SELL	465	71¢	$329	0xaf585d…
07-14 17:37:22	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	87	88¢	$77	0x2c005d…
07-14 17:37:13	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	SELL	9	71¢	$6	0x764e82…
07-14 17:26:13	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x0c0e4f…
07-14 15:35:46	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x96ee83…
07-14 06:55:40	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	51	90¢	$46	0x16a2f0…
07-14 05:47:50	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	218	92¢	$200	0xb0f1c5…
07-14 04:02:20	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	350	77¢	$270	0xdc8868…
07-14 04:01:32	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	BUY	42	70¢	$29	0xa4615e…
07-12 18:47:23	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0x50b39e…
07-12 17:02:20	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x161d1a…
07-12 16:39:20	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	BUY	95	79¢	$75	0xfb556d…