Unwilling-Superiority — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21.1K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.14K

Hit rate

85.8%

Resolved

179

Trades

969

lifetime

Volume

$477.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$492

Open exposure

$1.58K

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-24

last 10-28 12:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

98% 60% +$19,373

Politics

1% 38% +$1,760

Crypto

0% 35% -$71

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,500	$1,020	68¢	$1.0K	-$8	10-22 06:43
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+700	$308	44¢	$304	-$4	10-22 06:46
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+338	$223	62¢	$211	-$12	10-22 09:08
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+998	$1,165	5¢	$50	-$1,115	10-28 12:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	117	$77.4K	102,058	92,058	+10,001	Yes	+$11,729	09-16 15:20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	30	$20.9K	30,655	29,657	+998	open	—	10-28 12:20
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	4	$14.8K	9,635	9,635	+0	Yes	+$914	06-22 18:49
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	4	$14.6K	8,358	8,358	+0	Yes	+$1,713	06-30 22:15
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	7	$13.4K	9,673	9,673	+0	Yes	+$1,278	06-27 01:44
Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	189	$11.9K	34,618	34,618	+0	No	-$11,212	10-01 08:49
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	3	$11.7K	8,500	8,500	+0	Yes	+$1,530	06-19 23:07
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	5	$11.4K	7,158	7,158	+0	Yes	+$1,937	06-20 21:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$10.9K	6,575	6,575	+0	Yes	+$2,097	04-13 08:07
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	3	$10.7K	6,225	6,225	+0	Argentina	+$1,358	07-12 03:35
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	2	$10.1K	5,459	5,459	+0	Yes	+$781	06-23 17:18
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	5	$10.0K	6,648	6,648	+0	Yes	+$2,198	06-28 20:52
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	114	$9.7K	64,569	64,569	+0	No	+$3,115	06-29 15:05
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	4	$9.6K	6,955	6,955	+0	Yes	+$1,524	06-29 18:58
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	2	$9.6K	6,082	6,082	+0	Yes	+$2,150	06-19 20:22
Will France win on 2026-07-04?	3	$9.4K	5,300	5,300	+0	Yes	+$507	07-04 23:07
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	3	$9.2K	5,289	5,289	+0	Yes	+$1,312	07-02 21:05
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	2	$8.9K	6,675	6,675	+0	No	+$1,802	06-18 17:31
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	3	$8.0K	4,648	4,648	+0	Brazil	+$1,279	06-29 19:02
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	2	$7.4K	3,933	3,933	+0	Yes	+$409	06-21 16:22
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	2	$6.5K	4,032	4,032	+0	Yes	+$1,496	06-26 20:48
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	2	$6.5K	3,820	3,820	+0	Yes	+$1,180	07-04 03:34
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	3	$6.2K	3,383	3,383	+0	Yes	+$497	06-25 21:26
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	2	$5.6K	4,348	4,348	+0	Yes	+$1,565	06-30 18:47
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	2	$5.3K	3,508	3,508	+0	Yes	+$316	06-24 20:34
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	2	$5.2K	2,747	2,747	+0	Yes	+$236	06-23 00:15
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	1	$5.1K	6,145	0	+6,145	No	-$5,100	06-23 17:21
fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	2	$4.5K	2,626	2,626	+0	Canada	+$549	06-28 20:53
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	26	$4.4K	179,817	113,747	+66,070	No	-$3,069	04-28 14:24
fifwc col gha 2026 07 03 team to advance	2	$4.4K	2,453	2,453	+0	Colombia	+$464	07-04 03:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 12:20:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	508	5¢	$25	0xb7090e…
10-28 12:14:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	481	5¢	$25	0x26bd7a…
10-26 02:53:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,381	100¢	$2,379	0x2a9994…
10-22 09:08:05	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	338	66¢	$223	0x3eda6e…
10-22 06:46:51	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	700	44¢	$308	0x16a5f1…
10-22 06:43:51	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	68¢	$1,020	0x45c2ba…
10-22 06:41:21	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x4144e2…
10-22 06:40:53	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	48	29¢	$14	0x11341e…
10-21 07:30:11	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0xa1eaf1…
10-21 07:29:18	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0xa29325…
10-21 06:27:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,381	21¢	$500	0x643178…
10-15 06:28:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0x5e96ee…
10-14 12:47:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,722	44¢	$756	0xa830fd…
10-14 10:54:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	766	21¢	$161	0x1dfa37…
10-14 08:47:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	955	19¢	$182	0x69d218…
10-13 06:11:39	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	36	60¢	$22	0xc8bb58…
10-12 18:20:08	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x134f1e…
10-12 18:19:56	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x22271a…
10-12 18:19:29	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	116	60¢	$70	0x5349be…
10-12 18:18:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,632	19¢	$500	0x365887…
10-12 17:26:59	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	47	54¢	$25	0x2a24e7…
10-12 17:21:18	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x9a2a4d…
10-12 17:21:06	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xf80659…
10-12 17:20:47	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	25	53¢	$13	0xa91772…
10-12 17:20:26	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x8e8470…
10-12 17:00:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,632	19¢	$500	0x0c0d18…
10-12 15:56:30	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0xe96f7f…
10-12 15:56:12	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xbc6622…
10-12 15:55:53	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xad5716…
10-12 15:55:30	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	29	59¢	$17	0x2cf6fb…
10-12 15:55:12	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xf0cb49…
10-12 13:31:12	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	109	60¢	$65	0x4c620b…
10-12 12:31:56	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	55	61¢	$34	0x3faf0b…
10-12 12:31:41	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x474fd3…
10-12 12:31:21	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	36	61¢	$22	0xabe3ee…
10-12 12:31:06	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	43	61¢	$26	0x986269…
10-12 12:30:44	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	70	60¢	$42	0x360c79…
10-12 09:24:17	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	39	69¢	$27	0x33a7b8…
10-12 09:24:02	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	37	69¢	$25	0xa28347…
10-12 09:23:50	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x02a1ff…
10-12 09:16:10	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	70	69¢	$48	0xd94e6c…
10-12 09:15:53	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x35b5bd…
10-12 06:50:28	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	210	62¢	$130	0x7820b3…
10-12 06:50:14	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x4c5d7c…
10-12 06:49:55	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	130	62¢	$80	0x77a434…
10-12 06:49:37	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x80ef3f…
10-12 06:49:16	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xe52db4…
10-12 06:49:05	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xbe478d…
10-12 06:18:24	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	61	62¢	$38	0x3b530e…
10-12 00:50:23	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	531	62¢	$329	0x009e0b…
10-12 00:49:00	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	35	61¢	$22	0x1922ce…
10-12 00:48:27	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	19	61¢	$12	0xa293fc…
10-12 00:48:11	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xd71426…
10-12 00:47:51	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	72	60¢	$43	0xe1b41a…
10-11 16:43:54	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	39	65¢	$26	0xcebec6…
10-11 16:30:21	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	55	64¢	$35	0x1ecf05…
10-11 16:29:37	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	190	62¢	$119	0x5d3ef2…
10-11 15:21:57	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	36	62¢	$22	0x767c9b…
10-11 15:21:34	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	23	61¢	$14	0x92da37…
10-11 15:21:24	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0x9985dd…
10-11 15:21:07	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	66	61¢	$40	0x371670…
10-11 15:14:43	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	343	59¢	$201	0x35698a…
10-11 15:13:54	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	113	57¢	$65	0xe39e29…
10-11 15:13:37	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	211	57¢	$120	0xcc1f54…
10-08 09:26:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	14¢	$1,400	0x4e2ce6…
10-06 16:04:41	Will Finland win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	198	49¢	$97	0x8b2cb1…
10-06 16:04:11	Will Luxembourg win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	221	42¢	$93	0x1884f0…
10-06 16:03:45	Will Scotland win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	564	53¢	$299	0x2501c6…
10-06 16:03:26	Will England win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	355	89¢	$316	0x15ff5b…
10-06 16:03:05	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0xb08ed5…
10-05 20:35:22	Will Sweden win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	SELL	479	95¢	$457	0x71436c…
10-05 20:32:34	Will France win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	SELL	596	99¢	$590	0x3ba389…
10-05 20:32:16	Will Italy win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	SELL	423	99¢	$418	0x2b4cc6…
10-05 17:45:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	20¢	$200	0x5a342d…
10-05 16:19:19	Will Sweden win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	BUY	479	59¢	$283	0x84442c…
10-05 16:18:52	Will Italy win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	BUY	423	71¢	$300	0x98639a…
10-05 16:18:25	Will France win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	BUY	596	67¢	$399	0x9e9f28…
10-02 20:48:21	W15 Nashville, TN: Ashton Bowers vs Chiara Di Genova	Ashton Bowers	BUY	309	72¢	$224	0x43d8e4…
10-02 20:47:30	Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	SELL	1,746	100¢	$1,744	0xb3809d…
10-02 20:47:03	W15 Nashville, TN: Ashton Bowers vs Chiara Di Genova	Ashton Bowers	BUY	79	74¢	$59	0x554bbe…
10-02 20:37:59	Will France win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	SELL	983	3¢	$30	0x61cdef…
10-02 20:37:21	Will France win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	SELL	494	6¢	$29	0x539c32…
10-02 15:28:47	Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	BUY	1,746	63¢	$1,100	0x6e955a…
10-02 13:04:51	Will France win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	BUY	1,477	68¢	$1,005	0xbe7cb5…
10-02 12:05:45	LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs	T1 Academy	SELL	1,121	57¢	$639	0x2f6ed5…
10-02 12:01:21	LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs	T1 Academy	BUY	164	58¢	$95	0x26c64a…
10-02 11:07:23	LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs	T1 Academy	BUY	439	31¢	$137	0xeae23d…
10-02 10:56:06	LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs	T1 Academy	BUY	1,168	38¢	$447	0x5556b3…
10-02 10:55:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	24¢	$480	0x79e55f…
10-02 08:41:32	LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs	T1 Academy	BUY	472	65¢	$307	0x9b66b6…
10-01 11:53:20	Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	224	68¢	$152	0xf5831f…
10-01 11:52:57	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	312	48¢	$150	0x1b7ffe…
10-01 08:49:00	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	17,309	0¢	$54	0x41d336…
09-30 10:15:14	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	17,309	2¢	$267	0xafefa7…
09-22 05:14:49	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	34	19¢	$6	0x229cb3…
09-21 18:15:00	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	39	21¢	$8	0x11183c…
09-21 18:14:37	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x9ebc8c…
09-21 18:14:22	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xa49a19…
09-21 18:14:09	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	95	20¢	$19	0x3fdcb4…
09-21 18:13:58	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x22d6d0…