Lighthearted-Infant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$106.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

26.5%

Resolved

6,348

Trades

42,060

lifetime

Volume

$380.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 11-11 07:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 234 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 36% -$20,591

Politics

33% 15% -$65,698

Other

15% 10% -$18,127

Tech

1% 0% -$1,087

Sports

0% 50% -$1,395

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 601 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
skin cancer vaccine bla submitted by march 31 2027	Yes		+20	$13	78¢	$16	+$3	09-01 03:40
skin cancer vaccine bla submitted by march 31 2027	No		+20	$9	22¢	$4	-$5	09-01 02:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 10	50	$25.2K	281,124	280,351	+773	Yes	-$5,471	03-14 12:45
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	42	$19.6K	188,672	188,672	+0	No	-$4,630	04-15 00:58
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	11	$11.2K	125,327	105,727	+19,600	No	-$3,054	03-31 18:06
will iran strike israel on march 6	16	$10.1K	932,445	156,454	+775,990	No	-$9,232	03-11 18:42
will bitcoin reach 74k on march 15	18	$9.8K	9,900	9,883	+17	Yes	+$8,022	03-16 03:38
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	19	$7.9K	113,727	113,727	+0	Yes	-$565	04-08 01:26
will bitcoin reach 72k on march 12	5	$7.7K	7,045	7,033	+12	Yes	+$6,405	03-13 01:45
will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	111	$6.8K	362,099	0	+362,099	No	-$6,828	03-18 23:11
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	93	$6.0K	21,272	0	+21,272	No	-$5,956	03-08 17:16
will bitcoin dip to 64k february 16 22	2	$5.8K	1,000	8,500	-7,500	No	+$5,761	02-23 02:00
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	23	$5.5K	22,038	18,954	+3,083	No	+$308	04-15 17:56
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	10	$5.5K	21,631	21,631	+0	Yes	+$2,206	02-28 06:44
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	5	$5.4K	28,798	28,798	+0	No	-$1,194	03-10 06:01
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	6	$5.2K	16,600	15,442	+1,157	No	+$1,516	03-30 16:58
will bitcoin dip to 64k march 2 8	39	$5.1K	32,151	18,814	+13,337	No	-$1,361	03-08 19:21
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	14	$4.2K	47,700	47,700	+0	No	-$899	04-06 16:27
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	9	$4.2K	7,643	0	+7,643	Yes	-$373	03-04 09:30
will bitcoin dip to 67k on march 19	8	$4.1K	11,644	3,905	+7,739	No	-$205	03-19 22:56
bitcoin above 70k on march 14	31	$3.5K	14,316	14,299	+17	Yes	+$1,393	03-13 18:13
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?	27	$3.3K	5,077	1,766	+3,311	Yes	+$487	03-03 22:04
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	9	$3.3K	83,190	18,312	+64,878	No	-$717	03-31 17:43
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	4	$3.3K	39,846	11,477	+28,369	No	-$1,891	03-30 13:24
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	23	$3.3K	59,286	59,286	+0	No	-$80	02-28 06:35
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	8	$3.1K	415,295	43,295	+372,000	Yes	-$335	03-13 05:15
will bitcoin dip to 70k on march 13	10	$3.0K	7,377	7,327	+50	No	-$33	03-13 22:42
will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	2	$2.2K	8,000	4,000	+4,000	No	+$1,769	03-01 22:13
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	20	$2.2K	30,709	30,709	+0	No	+$124	03-28 16:28
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 7 2026	179	$2.1K	1,131,960	0	+1,131,960	No	-$2,110	03-08 02:24
russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	7	$1.8K	966,287	200,021	+766,266	Yes	-$1,322	03-14 13:20
bitcoin above 72k on march 14	4	$1.8K	5,345	5,296	+49	No	-$988	03-13 22:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 07:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0xb1747b…
11-11 04:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x1fc65c…
11-11 02:59:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0xff0993…
11-10 15:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x6926bc…
11-10 13:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	27	1¢	$0	0x208a8a…
11-10 13:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	73	1¢	$1	0x0a102b…
11-10 13:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x2e6ff7…
11-10 13:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x114fde…
11-10 11:07:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on November 10?	Yes	SELL	148	4¢	$6	0x74ba47…
11-10 10:59:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xea497c…
11-10 10:54:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x5a0514…
11-10 10:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0x99911e…
11-10 10:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	29	49¢	$14	0xadea0b…
11-10 10:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x293150…
11-10 09:03:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on November 10?	Yes	BUY	148	1¢	$2	0x1b1ba1…
11-10 08:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xf9f248…
11-10 06:24:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x725660…
11-10 02:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7096e4…
11-10 00:49:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x7ab3a4…
11-09 23:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xceba12…
11-09 21:24:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	43¢	$14	0xd4481f…
11-09 21:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	29	49¢	$14	0xc9bb1b…
11-09 20:29:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xbb8cff…
11-09 18:41:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0x492878…
11-09 18:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x4ec848…
11-09 15:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	46	66¢	$30	0x91c453…
11-09 15:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	60	10¢	$6	0x3be764…
11-09 15:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x5b230a…
11-09 13:00:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on November 9?	Yes	SELL	224	0¢	$1	0x2dd219…
11-09 12:49:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	64	11¢	$7	0x913c10…
11-09 12:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	70	10¢	$7	0x60a18a…
11-09 11:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0x0a5fe8…
11-09 09:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	90	10¢	$9	0x18aad7…
11-09 09:19:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-09 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x284fa2…
11-09 08:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x82170e…
11-09 08:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0x021352…
11-09 08:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0x7393b8…
11-09 08:33:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0xa234b5…
11-09 08:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	167	3¢	$5	0xe79031…
11-09 08:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x59049b…
11-09 07:58:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	116	2¢	$2	0x05b88b…
11-09 07:58:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on November 9?	Yes	BUY	108	2¢	$2	0x6d816f…
11-09 07:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x893495…
11-09 07:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x0a6449…
11-09 07:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	896	0¢	$1	0x02a872…
11-09 07:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x509626…
11-09 07:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xa3560e…
11-09 07:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xb5d785…
11-09 07:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	74	0¢	$0	0xacbc70…
11-09 07:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	78	1¢	$1	0x4958f7…
11-09 07:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x9edfd4…
11-09 07:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x7bcef3…
11-09 07:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x8adadb…
11-09 07:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xcb4642…
11-09 07:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xb3d5e2…
11-09 07:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x457a98…
11-09 07:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x1cdd8b…
11-09 07:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x0d9113…
11-09 07:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xf87198…
11-09 07:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x8aa0f0…
11-09 07:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x405b16…
11-09 07:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x747134…
11-09 07:43:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	69	5¢	$3	0xead66a…
11-09 07:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xd9c871…
11-09 07:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0x928c09…
11-09 07:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0x6a3932…
11-09 07:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xf0b7c8…
11-09 07:28:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc91a94…
11-09 07:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	17	20¢	$3	0xb95eb5…
11-09 07:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0x4ff4ef…
11-09 07:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x2167b5…
11-09 06:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xebda23…
11-09 06:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x8dde24…
11-09 06:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	300	4¢	$12	0xfa427c…
11-09 06:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xaf2aeb…
11-09 06:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7e3653…
11-09 06:40:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9c0e3b…
11-09 06:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x67bd32…
11-09 06:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xe37c23…
11-09 06:38:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0xcb1a8b…
11-09 06:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0xc42b63…
11-09 06:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x83e2e5…
11-09 06:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x4bb6ea…
11-09 06:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x4135f6…
11-09 06:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x465935…
11-09 06:30:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x986382…
11-09 06:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	930	0¢	$1	0xbe6eab…
11-09 06:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0xf175a0…
11-09 06:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	31	1¢	$0	0x0c7089…
11-09 06:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x000ec3…
11-09 06:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xf09058…
11-09 06:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x290d8b…
11-09 06:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0xb5bece…
11-09 06:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x784adb…
11-09 06:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x0ecb71…
11-09 06:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x938257…
11-09 06:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0xfcece1…
11-09 06:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xc5f44b…
11-09 06:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x5db7b1…
11-09 06:18:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x9165b3…