Lighthearted-Infant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$130

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

41.3%

Resolved

138

Trades

26,576

lifetime

Volume

$337.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 06-30 12:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 47% $-128

Politics

37% — —

Other

17% 0% $-7

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% 33% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 775 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes		+417	$10	0¢	$1	$-9	06-24 13:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 10	50	$25.2K	281,124	280,351	+773	open	—	03-14 12:45
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	42	$19.6K	188,672	188,672	+0	open	—	04-15 00:58
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	11	$11.2K	125,327	105,727	+19,600	open	—	03-31 18:06
will iran strike israel on march 6	16	$10.1K	932,445	156,454	+775,990	open	—	03-11 18:42
will bitcoin reach 74k on march 15	18	$9.8K	9,900	9,883	+17	open	—	03-16 03:38
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	19	$7.9K	113,727	113,727	+0	open	—	04-08 01:26
will bitcoin reach 72k on march 12	5	$7.7K	7,045	7,033	+12	open	—	03-13 01:45
will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	111	$6.8K	362,099	0	+362,099	open	—	03-18 23:11
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	93	$6.0K	21,272	0	+21,272	open	—	03-08 17:16
will bitcoin dip to 64k february 16 22	2	$5.8K	1,000	8,500	-7,500	open	—	02-23 02:00
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	23	$5.5K	22,038	18,954	+3,083	open	—	04-15 17:56
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	10	$5.5K	21,631	21,631	+0	open	—	02-28 06:44
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	5	$5.4K	28,798	28,798	+0	open	—	03-10 06:01
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	6	$5.2K	16,600	15,442	+1,157	open	—	03-30 16:58
will bitcoin dip to 64k march 2 8	39	$5.1K	32,151	18,814	+13,337	open	—	03-08 19:21
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	14	$4.2K	47,700	47,700	+0	open	—	04-06 16:27
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	9	$4.2K	7,643	0	+7,643	open	—	03-04 09:30
will bitcoin dip to 67k on march 19	8	$4.1K	11,644	3,905	+7,739	open	—	03-19 22:56
bitcoin above 70k on march 14	31	$3.5K	14,316	14,299	+17	open	—	03-13 18:13
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?	27	$3.3K	5,077	1,766	+3,311	open	—	03-03 22:04
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	9	$3.3K	83,190	18,312	+64,878	open	—	03-31 17:43
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	4	$3.3K	39,846	11,477	+28,369	open	—	03-30 13:24
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	23	$3.3K	59,286	59,286	+0	open	—	02-28 06:35
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	8	$3.1K	415,295	43,295	+372,000	open	—	03-13 05:15
will bitcoin dip to 70k on march 13	10	$3.0K	7,377	7,327	+50	open	—	03-13 22:42
will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	2	$2.2K	8,000	4,000	+4,000	open	—	03-01 22:13
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	20	$2.2K	30,709	30,709	+0	open	—	03-28 16:28
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 7 2026	179	$2.1K	1,131,960	0	+1,131,960	open	—	03-08 02:24
russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	7	$1.8K	966,287	200,021	+766,266	open	—	03-14 13:20
bitcoin above 72k on march 14	4	$1.8K	5,345	5,296	+49	open	—	03-13 22:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 12:56:08	btc updown 15m 1782823500	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x8ef157…
06-30 12:50:41	btc updown 15m 1782823500	Up	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0xb6a0b0…
06-30 12:50:41	btc updown 15m 1782823500	Up	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xac2a01…
06-30 12:50:41	btc updown 15m 1782823500	Up	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0x6009aa…
06-30 12:50:38	btc updown 15m 1782823500	Up	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x70eaff…
06-30 12:45:41	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0xfe2494…
06-30 12:45:29	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	128	1¢	$1	0xdf9c72…
06-30 12:45:01	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xb2d8a1…
06-30 12:45:01	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x945638…
06-30 12:45:01	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x81aa6e…
06-30 12:45:01	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x47d279…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xfb1755…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf3af2b…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xea4dc6…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe50c30…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xa9e9ff…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xa23686…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x98da6f…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x8f7028…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x79926f…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x75de45…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x399fbd…
06-30 12:44:59	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x0373c7…
06-30 12:44:43	btc updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x0cdf93…
06-30 12:25:46	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x1d5968…
06-30 12:25:43	btc updown 15m 1782821700	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x40b795…
06-30 12:24:31	btc updown 15m 1782821700	Up	BUY	31	5¢	$2	0x8e0646…
06-30 12:24:28	btc updown 15m 1782821700	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x5d59b6…
06-30 12:24:28	btc updown 15m 1782821700	Up	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x3bdc75…
06-29 17:29:05	eth updown 5m 1782753900	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3fd779…
06-29 17:28:35	eth updown 5m 1782753900	Down	BUY	36	5¢	$2	0xcff3df…
06-29 17:28:35	eth updown 5m 1782753900	Down	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x7d86c8…
06-29 17:28:35	eth updown 5m 1782753900	Down	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x72f6e3…
06-29 17:28:35	eth updown 5m 1782753900	Down	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x37213c…
06-29 17:28:35	eth updown 5m 1782753900	Down	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x09851d…
06-29 17:28:23	eth updown 5m 1782753900	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x758a0a…
06-29 17:21:46	eth updown 5m 1782753600	Up	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xc30423…
06-29 17:21:31	eth updown 5m 1782753600	Up	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0xd2582d…
06-29 17:21:29	eth updown 5m 1782753600	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xd3f06d…
06-29 17:21:29	eth updown 5m 1782753600	Up	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0x58eab0…
06-29 17:21:29	eth updown 5m 1782753600	Up	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x346ad1…
06-29 17:18:01	eth updown 5m 1782753300	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7ab703…
06-29 17:15:43	eth updown 5m 1782753300	Down	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x3ed30e…
06-29 17:15:26	eth updown 5m 1782753300	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x68670d…
06-24 13:11:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	417	2¢	$10	0xc172ee…
06-20 18:27:59	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0x8561c4…
06-20 18:16:53	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 team total away 0pt5	Over	SELL	18	45¢	$8	0x3db1af…
06-20 18:09:13	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	1	56¢	$0	0x4435fa…
06-20 18:09:11	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0xaa95cd…
06-20 18:09:11	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x32f48f…
06-20 15:00:01	btc updown 5m 1781967300	Down	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xd81951…
06-20 15:00:01	btc updown 5m 1781967300	Down	BUY	46	1¢	$0	0xcc6c68…
06-20 14:59:59	btc updown 5m 1781967300	Down	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x94338a…
06-20 14:54:58	btc updown 5m 1781967000	Up	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x14f85d…
06-20 14:54:50	btc updown 5m 1781967000	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xcea61c…
06-20 14:54:50	btc updown 5m 1781967000	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xb7c1b9…
06-20 14:54:50	btc updown 5m 1781967000	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x8c5c04…
06-20 14:54:50	btc updown 5m 1781967000	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x72e638…
06-20 14:54:50	btc updown 5m 1781967000	Up	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x6f67e4…
06-20 14:41:01	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x8e26ae…
06-20 14:41:01	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x1fb2da…
06-20 14:40:59	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x8359c5…
06-20 14:32:11	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 10am et	Down	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x0afa85…
06-20 14:31:19	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xdadf3c…
06-20 11:34:55	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 7am et	Down	SELL	25	43¢	$11	0x415d5c…
06-20 11:30:16	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x1aaa07…
06-20 11:30:16	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0x113bfd…
06-20 07:44:26	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x3d9890…
06-20 05:52:07	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xe2d61d…
06-20 05:52:05	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xffbc4e…
06-20 05:52:05	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xe6461b…
06-20 05:33:38	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x0cc9c6…
06-20 05:28:22	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	65	24¢	$16	0x7ae1f7…
06-19 16:41:07	bitcoin up or down june 19 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	35	30¢	$10	0x771e71…
06-19 10:46:40	bitcoin up or down june 19 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0xd882d8…
06-19 10:46:38	bitcoin up or down june 19 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xb5c718…
06-14 08:44:34	eth updown 15m 1781425800	Up	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0x953675…
06-14 08:44:34	eth updown 15m 1781425800	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x6506d5…
06-14 08:44:33	eth updown 5m 1781426400	Down	BUY	17	57¢	$10	0x5b4230…
06-14 06:24:52	btc updown 5m 1781418000	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8b6706…
06-14 06:24:52	btc updown 5m 1781418000	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x03efe2…
06-13 21:28:39	btc updown 15m 1781385300	Down	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0x7fd5d4…
06-13 21:28:39	btc updown 5m 1781385900	Up	BUY	14	62¢	$9	0x4dc2aa…
06-12 01:18:57	btc updown 5m 1781226900	Up	BUY	24	54¢	$13	0x92d634…
06-12 01:18:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	352	4¢	$13	0x0d620e…
06-11 14:07:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	352	8¢	$29	0xce4dd1…
06-11 13:02:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	SELL	481	6¢	$29	0x1f0d80…
06-11 11:18:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	481	5¢	$25	0x4449ee…
06-11 05:10:22	btc updown 5m 1781154600	Down	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0xf3bb03…
06-11 05:10:22	btc updown 15m 1781154000	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x046a6e…
06-11 05:10:06	eth updown 15m 1781154000	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x23f7c0…
06-11 05:10:04	eth updown 5m 1781154600	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc7b6e1…
06-11 04:43:27	eth updown 15m 1781152200	Down	BUY	93	2¢	$2	0xfb1401…
06-11 04:43:27	eth updown 5m 1781152800	Up	BUY	65	17¢	$11	0xf379c9…
06-11 04:13:40	eth updown 5m 1781151000	Down	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0x543de1…
06-11 04:13:39	eth updown 15m 1781150400	Up	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0xda949d…
06-11 03:44:13	btc updown 5m 1781149200	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xbb2954…
06-11 03:44:13	btc updown 15m 1781148600	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x4d8979…
06-11 03:28:04	eth updown 15m 1781147700	Down	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xb2d746…
06-11 03:28:04	eth updown 5m 1781148300	Up	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0x1bd7f2…