Naive-Muffin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$70

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.7%

Resolved

804

Trades

1,324

lifetime

Volume

$32.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-02

last 10-27 13:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Crypto

85% 98% +$78

Other

14% 57% -$147

Politics

2% 55% -$1

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 111 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 5AM ET	2	$377	190	190	+0	Up	+$2	10-17 10:02
bitcoin up or down september 30 2026 3pm et	3	$222	6,148	0	+6,148	Down	-$99	09-30 19:53
ethereum up or down october 17 2026 7am et	1	$220	222	0	+222	Down	+$2	10-17 11:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9PM ET	1	$209	211	0	+211	Down	+$3	10-26 01:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5PM ET	1	$208	210	0	+210	Down	+$2	10-25 21:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10AM ET	1	$207	209	0	+209	Up	+$2	10-25 14:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3PM ET	1	$207	209	0	+209	Down	+$2	10-25 19:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2PM ET	1	$207	209	0	+209	Down	+$2	10-25 18:57
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET	1	$205	207	0	+207	Down	+$2	10-25 03:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET	1	$204	207	0	+207	Up	+$3	10-24 22:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET	1	$202	204	0	+204	Down	+$2	10-23 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5PM ET	1	$201	203	0	+203	Up	+$2	10-22 21:54
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 7PM ET	1	$198	201	0	+201	Down	+$3	10-20 23:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5PM ET	1	$197	199	0	+199	Up	+$2	10-20 21:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6PM ET	1	$197	199	0	+199	Up	+$2	10-20 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4PM ET	1	$196	198	0	+198	Up	+$2	10-19 20:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 11PM ET	1	$191	193	0	+193	Up	+$2	10-18 03:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12AM ET	1	$191	195	0	+195	Down	+$4	10-18 04:50
Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 4PM ET	1	$190	192	0	+192	Up	+$2	10-17 20:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 3PM ET	1	$190	192	0	+192	Up	+$2	10-17 19:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2PM ET	1	$189	191	0	+191	Up	+$2	10-17 18:50
bitcoin up or down october 17 2026 11am et	1	$188	190	0	+190	Down	+$2	10-17 15:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4PM ET	1	$187	189	0	+189	Up	+$2	10-20 20:52
bitcoin up or down october 17 2026 12pm et	1	$187	189	0	+189	Down	+$2	10-17 16:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 11PM ET	1	$186	188	0	+188	Up	+$2	10-17 03:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 6PM ET	1	$185	187	0	+187	Up	+$2	10-16 22:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6AM ET	1	$185	188	0	+188	Down	+$3	10-15 10:50
bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 8pm et	1	$184	186	0	+186	Down	+$2	10-15 00:52
bitcoin up or down october 17 2026 10am et	1	$183	185	0	+185	Up	+$2	10-17 14:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9AM ET	1	$180	184	0	+184	Down	+$4	10-27 13:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	184	98¢	$180	0xb2ab69…
10-27 13:51:53	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x82ef57…
10-27 06:50:23	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x194e03…
10-26 11:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x97ab21…
10-26 11:53:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	145	99¢	$144	0xefb77f…
10-26 11:53:27	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xef391f…
10-26 07:54:12	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x3a15de…
10-26 01:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	211	99¢	$209	0xcf7dae…
10-25 21:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	210	99¢	$208	0x21059c…
10-25 19:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	209	99¢	$207	0xdbaba2…
10-25 18:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	209	99¢	$207	0x6570e3…
10-25 16:55:39	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xa9b81b…
10-25 16:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x919dc7…
10-25 16:55:15	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x3e76f8…
10-25 14:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	209	99¢	$207	0x2d33ca…
10-25 12:55:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x1715d3…
10-25 08:52:30	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	56	99¢	$56	0xfdef12…
10-25 06:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	164	99¢	$162	0xe94771…
10-25 06:50:35	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x5dfec0…
10-25 04:50:09	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xdb1a61…
10-25 04:50:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	174	99¢	$172	0x4b6da3…
10-25 03:56:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	207	99¢	$205	0x2c5d46…
10-25 02:50:47	HYPE Up or Down - October 24, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x83daa8…
10-25 01:56:08	BNB Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xe3f7db…
10-24 22:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	207	98¢	$204	0xeae494…
10-24 21:53:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe7d6cc…
10-24 11:56:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	156	99¢	$154	0x36adc6…
10-24 11:50:41	Solana Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x8eda85…
10-24 09:55:12	XRP Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xcabf1b…
10-24 08:52:11	HYPE Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x4c0770…
10-24 07:56:44	Solana Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x526d57…
10-24 06:55:33	Solana Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x19b4f5…
10-24 06:53:18	HYPE Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xeebd56…
10-24 05:54:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	118	99¢	$117	0xb7d0cc…
10-24 05:50:03	Solana Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	86	99¢	$86	0x75c52e…
10-24 03:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	174	99¢	$172	0x771951…
10-24 03:50:38	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x77d7a4…
10-23 22:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x184fd8…
10-23 19:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	204	99¢	$202	0x0205bb…
10-23 09:56:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x843f7f…
10-23 09:50:03	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xe34ffb…
10-23 04:56:20	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0xb59ba4…
10-22 21:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	203	99¢	$201	0x7157fe…
10-22 11:55:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x39f9ea…
10-22 11:50:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	147	99¢	$146	0x0eebc1…
10-22 07:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x4a685e…
10-21 23:51:11	HYPE Up or Down - October 21, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2913ee…
10-21 21:54:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	167	99¢	$165	0x304d56…
10-21 21:52:38	BNB Up or Down - October 21, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x32d6b4…
10-21 21:51:42	HYPE Up or Down - October 21, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4cece6…
10-21 18:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0xe3cffb…
10-21 18:52:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0xc426af…
10-21 03:53:51	HYPE Up or Down - October 20, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0f9524…
10-21 03:53:48	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x50a3d4…
10-21 00:52:24	BNB Up or Down - October 20, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x3a995b…
10-21 00:50:03	HYPE Up or Down - October 20, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x268f0e…
10-20 23:54:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	201	99¢	$198	0x1b4ae5…
10-20 22:54:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	199	99¢	$197	0x1fbbe9…
10-20 21:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	199	99¢	$197	0x48bf83…
10-20 20:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	189	99¢	$187	0xd2760a…
10-20 20:50:03	HYPE Up or Down - October 20, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x101cd1…
10-20 19:54:14	HYPE Up or Down - October 20, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbf8a52…
10-20 12:51:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x94b205…
10-20 00:53:02	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x950caa…
10-19 21:55:00	BNB Up or Down - October 19, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x8c985a…
10-19 20:56:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	198	99¢	$196	0xa21ecf…
10-19 13:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0xb9f584…
10-19 13:51:30	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xa49e28…
10-19 06:54:09	HYPE Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x569897…
10-19 04:50:03	HYPE Up or Down - October 19, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0xddc47d…
10-19 04:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	142	99¢	$141	0xabd878…
10-19 03:54:12	BNB Up or Down - October 18, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xcff3a3…
10-19 02:52:11	HYPE Up or Down - October 18, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x59f4ec…
10-19 02:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x03abc5…
10-18 22:50:32	HYPE Up or Down - October 18, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x59c1a5…
10-18 21:54:27	HYPE Up or Down - October 18, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x6f9e30…
10-18 17:54:50	HYPE Up or Down - October 18, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0xd3cc23…
10-18 16:55:05	HYPE Up or Down - October 18, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x40a5b9…
10-18 14:53:05	HYPE Up or Down - October 18, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x9ed2bb…
10-18 14:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	46	99¢	$45	0x9b2c0a…
10-18 12:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	163	99¢	$161	0xceaf34…
10-18 12:53:00	HYPE Up or Down - October 18, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	32	99¢	$31	0xff094c…
10-18 09:53:20	HYPE Up or Down - October 18, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x671147…
10-18 08:54:51	HYPE Up or Down - October 18, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x0a1b3b…
10-18 05:56:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xfd184e…
10-18 05:50:03	XRP Up or Down - October 18, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xa34c4f…
10-18 04:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	195	98¢	$191	0xb8a010…
10-18 03:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	193	99¢	$191	0xb09998…
10-18 01:50:03	HYPE Up or Down - October 17, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x26ce9a…
10-17 20:55:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	192	99¢	$190	0x5f8e29…
10-17 19:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	192	99¢	$190	0x6b0959…
10-17 18:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	191	99¢	$189	0x253ce9…
10-17 17:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	148	99¢	$147	0xa80bed…
10-17 16:55:41	bitcoin up or down october 17 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	189	99¢	$187	0xb196dc…
10-17 15:50:05	bitcoin up or down october 17 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	190	99¢	$188	0x9527b5…
10-17 14:55:32	bitcoin up or down october 17 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	185	99¢	$183	0xb1289d…
10-17 14:54:05	solana up or down october 17 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x294671…
10-17 11:55:17	solana up or down october 17 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x8c83e4…
10-17 11:50:56	ethereum up or down october 17 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	222	99¢	$220	0xac7fe8…
10-17 10:54:42	xrp up or down october 17 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x337a18…