Mild-Unibody — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$37.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$116

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved

Trades

220

lifetime

Volume

$118.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$539

Open exposure

$84

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-11

last 11-04 13:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Politics

87% 58% -$39,768

Other

13% 61% +$2,331

Sports

0% 0% -$229

Crypto

0% 20% +$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes		+909	$100	6¢	$57	-$43	08-25 20:42
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes		+769	$100	3¢	$27	-$73	08-25 20:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	53	$44.5K	58,021	58,021	+0	No	-$26,046	10-25 23:26
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	17	$29.7K	16,121	16,121	+0	No	+$2,274	09-29 10:21
Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$6.1K	6,769	0	+6,769	No	+$669	09-21 20:50
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	5	$5.5K	6,597	0	+6,597	Yes	+$1,111	06-11 18:38
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$4.9K	6,530	0	+6,530	No	-$4,900	10-01 11:36
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	6	$3.5K	4,646	0	+4,646	No	-$3,471	10-16 11:28
Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	3	$2.5K	2,987	0	+2,987	Yes	+$524	09-24 17:11
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$1.9K	0	11,122	-11,122	Yes	-$9,231	10-05 19:40
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	10	$1.8K	3,064	0	+3,064	Yes	+$1,256	10-03 22:25
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	2	$1.4K	1,524	0	+1,524	Yes	+$122	06-25 21:36
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	4	$1.4K	1,916	653	+1,264	Yes	+$198	10-08 14:46
Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$1.3K	1,718	0	+1,718	No	+$456	10-03 14:06
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	5	$1.0K	1,353	0	+1,353	Yes	+$327	09-24 20:01
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	1	$710	977	0	+977	No	-$710	08-17 22:34
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	5	$672	516	414	+102	Yes	+$147	09-14 14:11
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	2	$604	661	661	+0	No	-$271	04-21 14:28
Will Rafael Fonteles win the 2026 Piauí gubernatorial election?	2	$601	328	328	+0	Yes	+$51	10-01 11:43
Will Renan Santos win between 6% and 8% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$600	694	0	+694	No	+$94	09-23 19:03
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	2	$579	1,607	1,607	+0	Yes	+$129	10-01 11:42
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	2	$463	661	0	+661	No	-$463	10-01 13:28
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	2	$460	571	0	+571	Yes	+$111	09-17 13:34
Will Grüne win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	2	$459	266	266	+0	Yes	+$59	09-20 22:17
Will Salles win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	2	$438	238	238	+0	No	+$38	09-29 10:24
Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	1	$380	533	0	+533	No	-$380	09-17 18:58
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	2	$307	691	0	+691	Yes	+$384	09-29 16:41
Will Ciro Nogueira win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?	1	$300	419	0	+419	No	+$119	09-29 21:14
Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes?	1	$300	330	0	+330	Yes	+$30	09-18 14:58
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$300	669	0	+669	No	+$369	10-02 11:45
Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	1	$300	414	0	+414	Yes	+$114	09-25 02:14
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$300	349	0	+349	Yes	+$49	09-17 13:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 13:20:46	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	18¢	$8	0x8a0a86…
11-04 01:27:58	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	680	1¢	$9	0xae228b…
10-25 23:26:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	21,360	7¢	$1,495	0x47c44d…
10-25 23:09:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10,000	13¢	$1,260	0xda7d47…
10-25 22:59:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xfd49de…
10-25 22:59:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,867	21¢	$608	0x5c1aa0…
10-25 22:59:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xce5f25…
10-25 22:59:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	24	21¢	$5	0xc149ee…
10-25 22:59:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	600	21¢	$127	0x20c4f1…
10-25 22:59:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	190	21¢	$40	0x1a8e2e…
10-25 22:59:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	38	21¢	$8	0xb4e5f9…
10-25 22:59:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	236	21¢	$50	0x06ace1…
10-25 22:59:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3,342	21¢	$709	0xe1e446…
10-25 22:59:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,689	21¢	$570	0x93e6a4…
10-25 22:58:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	545	20¢	$110	0x89367b…
10-25 22:58:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	9,455	21¢	$1,967	0x50c8ae…
10-23 17:35:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	663	76¢	$505	0x76ab22…
10-23 15:25:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6,505	77¢	$5,000	0xe2228a…
10-21 14:40:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	773	78¢	$601	0x5ec05a…
10-20 21:27:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	508	79¢	$400	0x60ed18…
10-20 17:16:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,946	77¢	$1,500	0xc826f8…
10-20 13:52:11	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x193f7a…
10-20 13:51:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,305	77¢	$1,000	0x8995f9…
10-19 12:43:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,238	77¢	$952	0x6dcb25…
10-16 19:20:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	650	77¢	$500	0x2cc667…
10-16 11:28:07	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	677	74¢	$500	0x67db9b…
10-15 22:33:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	513	78¢	$400	0xd6ea88…
10-15 12:44:47	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	1,585	68¢	$1,071	0xbda99a…
10-11 01:20:36	Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	Yes	SELL	99	9¢	$9	0xe9865d…
10-09 00:07:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,167	86¢	$1,000	0xd54ae1…
10-08 21:21:42	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	377	80¢	$300	0x4c765e…
10-08 21:21:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,334	86¢	$2,000	0x49a19f…
10-08 14:47:21	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	1,263	79¢	$1,000	0x78b2f0…
10-08 14:46:05	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	BUY	1,033	97¢	$1,000	0xf22734…
10-08 13:45:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,571	84¢	$3,000	0x7ea546…
10-07 20:14:04	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	371	81¢	$300	0xc392e0…
10-07 14:09:13	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	373	80¢	$300	0x191dbc…
10-06 20:21:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,558	84¢	$3,000	0x5067ee…
10-05 19:40:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11,122	17¢	$1,891	0xa89335…
10-05 17:24:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,632	83¢	$3,000	0x6175a6…
10-05 13:48:16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8,273	85¢	$7,000	0x0a509c…
10-04 20:30:01	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	BUY	231	26¢	$60	0x946669…
10-04 20:25:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x688199…
10-03 23:46:35	Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?	Yes	BUY	71	51¢	$36	0x53cd24…
10-03 23:45:50	Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	Yes	SELL	368	11¢	$41	0x2bf4ce…
10-03 22:25:29	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	144	69¢	$100	0xe73476…
10-03 22:24:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	65	20¢	$13	0x6a278e…
10-03 22:23:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 39% and 42% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	316	29¢	$93	0xbc6e7e…
10-03 21:37:47	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	SELL	653	22¢	$144	0x724bb4…
10-03 21:19:59	Will Domingos Sávio win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	Yes	BUY	327	53¢	$172	0xd6fc98…
10-03 21:19:28	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Yes	SELL	171	93¢	$160	0x126a26…
10-03 14:06:32	Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	685	73¢	$500	0x3c9e38…
10-03 12:14:26	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	BUY	653	23¢	$150	0x562aef…
10-02 14:13:15	Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?	No	SELL	182	68¢	$124	0x6a8bbd…
10-02 11:45:36	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xa00a98…
10-02 11:44:08	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	426	70¢	$300	0xd4e6e3…
10-01 13:28:12	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	429	70¢	$300	0x6c1820…
10-01 11:50:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 39% and 42% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	316	32¢	$100	0x4a07b9…
10-01 11:49:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	541	37¢	$200	0xd70724…
10-01 11:44:21	Lula participates in debate before first round?	No	SELL	131	99¢	$130	0xa3e0a4…
10-01 11:43:06	Will Rafael Fonteles win the 2026 Piauí gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	328	99¢	$326	0xd87d8c…
10-01 11:42:05	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	SELL	1,607	22¢	$354	0x15cfb8…
10-01 11:36:51	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	644	62¢	$400	0x568a8a…
10-01 11:36:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	972	72¢	$700	0x8e2eb1…
09-30 11:36:41	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	315	64¢	$200	0xd81079…
09-29 22:21:12	Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?	No	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x52f5ca…
09-29 22:17:26	Lula participates in debate before first round?	No	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0x1e6455…
09-29 21:15:29	Will Marcelo Castro win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?	Yes	BUY	354	57¢	$200	0xfda09e…
09-29 21:14:38	Will Ciro Nogueira win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?	No	BUY	419	72¢	$300	0xab9174…
09-29 20:41:44	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	327	61¢	$200	0xf12ada…
09-29 16:45:53	Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x1ec9c6…
09-29 16:44:03	Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?	Yes	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x0864f8…
09-29 16:42:27	Will Marcel Van Hattem win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	Yes	BUY	234	80¢	$187	0x289988…
09-29 16:41:51	Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	Yes	BUY	368	51¢	$187	0x915004…
09-29 16:41:00	Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Yes	BUY	256	73¢	$187	0x87ba3b…
09-29 10:24:08	Will Salles win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	No	SELL	238	100¢	$238	0x1d3410…
09-29 10:21:48	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	2,631	100¢	$2,620	0x1def00…
09-27 16:40:35	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	379	53¢	$200	0xe18efe…
09-25 11:12:26	Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	Yes	BUY	99	51¢	$50	0xc06701…
09-25 02:21:06	Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xc2b743…
09-25 02:14:24	Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Yes	BUY	414	72¢	$300	0x1361cc…
09-24 20:07:11	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	173	58¢	$100	0x55df33…
09-24 20:05:18	Will Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xee0c14…
09-24 20:01:59	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	Yes	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0xfa1acd…
09-24 17:11:11	Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	2,418	83¢	$2,000	0xdb0411…
09-24 17:06:33	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	Yes	BUY	241	83¢	$200	0x8c7dd8…
09-24 17:05:38	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3,000	99¢	$2,982	0x5b995b…
09-23 19:03:28	Will Renan Santos win between 6% and 8% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	694	86¢	$600	0xacf6af…
09-23 19:02:35	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$992	0x6a6f10…
09-23 16:27:25	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	232	70¢	$163	0x0b700d…
09-23 13:38:25	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	351	51¢	$180	0xa405ee…
09-21 20:50:18	Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3,335	90¢	$3,000	0x09979e…
09-21 20:49:43	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3,000	99¢	$2,970	0xb27021…
09-21 16:20:00	Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3,214	90¢	$2,900	0x99ecb2…
09-21 16:18:54	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3,000	99¢	$2,970	0x53f4f8…
09-20 23:10:46	Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x8a5a57…
09-20 23:10:05	Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	392	77¢	$300	0x10b760…
09-20 23:08:58	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	209	38¢	$80	0x5ff7a8…
09-20 22:47:56	Will Salles win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	No	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0x906445…
09-20 22:17:47	Will Grüne win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	266	97¢	$259	0x164b03…