Ajar-Alarm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$489

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.1%

Resolved

Trades

900

lifetime

Volume

$20.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 06-30 13:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 96% $-493

Politics

24% 100% +$4

Other

12% — —

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 209 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.2K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-19 19:19
btc updown 15m 1776486600	2	$1.0K	1,009	2,000	-991	open	—	04-18 04:44
grok 4pt4 released by june 15	21	$988	624	470	+154	open	—	06-15 14:20
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	10	$898	0	1,811	-1,811	open	—	05-19 23:04
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	5	$759	500	500	+0	open	—	05-14 18:08
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$725	400	400	+0	open	—	05-19 03:35
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	3	$618	313	313	+0	No	+$4	05-08 20:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	5	$604	605	505	+100	open	—	05-01 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	9	$598	600	451	+149	open	—	05-01 21:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	1	$594	600	0	+600	open	—	05-01 17:41
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	1	$553	560	0	+560	open	—	05-22 03:13
btc updown 15m 1776625200	3	$500	500	500	+0	open	—	04-19 19:13
btc updown 15m 1776590100	8	$500	500	500	+0	open	—	04-19 09:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$454	648	278	+370	open	—	05-08 10:40
grok 4pt4 released by june 30	7	$434	1,146	264	+881	open	—	06-29 01:00
will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	2	$409	238	238	+0	open	—	06-27 18:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	11	$403	0	818	-818	open	—	05-19 23:04
btc updown 15m 1776499200	2	$302	302	300	+2	open	—	04-18 08:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$273	248	248	+0	open	—	05-08 16:35
btc updown 15m 1776578400	5	$259	257	500	-243	open	—	04-19 06:13
btc updown 15m 1776573000	4	$255	253	500	-247	open	—	04-19 04:42
btc updown 15m 1776619800	4	$255	255	500	-245	open	—	04-19 17:43
btc updown 15m 1776513600	2	$254	252	250	+2	open	—	04-18 12:13
btc updown 15m 1776603600	2	$254	252	500	-248	open	—	04-19 13:13
btc updown 15m 1776617100	9	$254	252	493	-241	open	—	04-19 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	4	$252	253	250	+3	Up	$-497	05-06 18:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	2	$252	252	250	+2	Up	+$5	05-06 16:13
btc updown 15m 1776615300	5	$251	252	184	+68	open	—	04-19 16:29
btc updown 15m 1776614400	1	$249	252	0	+252	open	—	04-19 16:12
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	2	$224	274	0	+274	open	—	06-27 18:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 13:19:17	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	27	57¢	$15	0x9d4bba…
06-29 01:00:04	grok 4pt4 released by june 30	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x4573f9…
06-27 18:07:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x29f40a…
06-27 18:07:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	270	82¢	$221	0xf13794…
06-27 18:06:17	will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	No	SELL	238	95¢	$226	0xc94915…
06-25 18:17:35	will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	No	BUY	238	77¢	$183	0x7b4c49…
06-25 18:16:53	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x275230…
06-25 18:16:46	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xc2d80d…
06-20 21:18:05	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	147	87¢	$128	0x64d7b2…
06-19 23:12:43	grok 4pt4 released by june 30	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x5cc247…
06-19 09:21:02	will donald trump attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204740	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x80ca21…
06-19 09:20:29	grok 4pt4 released by june 30	No	BUY	101	94¢	$95	0x07cc1a…
06-19 09:18:31	will donald trump publicly insult elon musk by june 30 2026	No	SELL	66	96¢	$63	0xdb130d…
06-19 09:18:22	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xbc3f55…
06-18 21:47:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	BUY	55	90¢	$49	0xedd328…
06-17 19:19:47	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xb67da4…
06-17 12:45:53	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x60e155…
06-17 12:42:25	will donald trump attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204740	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xdf60c6…
06-16 20:38:55	will spacex acquire cursor by september 30 2026	No	SELL	3,000	1¢	$30	0x3ad48c…
06-16 20:37:05	will spacex acquire cursor by september 30 2026	No	SELL	500	1¢	$5	0x58dc29…
06-16 19:44:16	will spacex acquire cursor by september 30 2026	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x717740…
06-16 19:22:19	will spacex acquire cursor by september 30 2026	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xc816eb…
06-16 19:03:35	will spacex acquire cursor by september 30 2026	No	BUY	10,225	1¢	$82	0x852692…
06-15 21:10:49	grok 4pt4 released by june 30	No	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0xbcfc3c…
06-15 21:09:16	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xed3b07…
06-15 21:08:57	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x0796c2…
06-15 21:08:31	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x3e3a61…
06-15 21:05:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xc7e745…
06-15 21:04:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	210	5¢	$10	0x1dc7a7…
06-15 14:20:03	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0xb5d546…
06-12 17:17:31	will luke nosek be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212488	Yes	BUY	152	100¢	$151	0x0ea2e0…
06-12 17:16:52	will brian bjelde be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212485	Yes	BUY	157	84¢	$132	0x46aa34…
06-12 11:10:34	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x2447d1…
06-12 11:10:33	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xdb4319…
06-12 11:10:31	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x5c91ec…
06-12 11:10:31	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x5a07b2…
06-12 11:10:28	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x0cef7a…
06-12 11:10:27	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x97891e…
06-12 11:10:25	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x66b36c…
06-12 11:10:24	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x3a817e…
06-12 11:10:22	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xd70d61…
06-12 11:09:46	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x029d40…
06-12 11:09:45	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xe0d953…
06-12 11:09:42	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x771e58…
06-12 11:09:40	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x57c34a…
06-12 11:09:36	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x7f8b09…
06-12 11:09:36	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x2fc474…
06-12 11:09:34	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x7d66f1…
06-12 11:09:33	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xab74a9…
06-12 11:09:33	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x6c832a…
06-12 11:09:30	grok 4pt4 released by june 15	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xa861fb…
06-11 00:57:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0x64979b…
06-08 22:37:28	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x147741…
06-07 22:08:48	grok 4pt4 released by june 30	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x4fe19d…
06-07 19:45:45	grok 4pt4 released by june 30	No	SELL	245	43¢	$105	0xc33ae5…
06-07 00:31:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	210	94¢	$197	0x50831e…
06-05 09:19:39	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x4c6978…
06-01 22:06:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	66	87¢	$58	0x987589…
06-01 22:06:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$21	0x1c948d…
06-01 22:06:01	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xabef1e…
06-01 12:40:11	Grok 4.4 released by June 15?	No	BUY	470	78¢	$367	0xfe8509…
06-01 12:39:46	Grok 4.4 released by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	17¢	$172	0xc4f307…
05-22 03:13:58	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xe1c9cc…
05-22 03:13:14	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	No	BUY	560	99¢	$553	0x4bdfec…
05-22 03:12:34	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x68838f…
05-22 03:11:59	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0x1f386d…
05-22 03:11:55	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x7a29f2…
05-22 03:11:22	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	54	51¢	$28	0xc87453…
05-22 03:10:52	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x711de8…
05-22 00:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4add1e…
05-22 00:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x49d4e0…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x896819…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	79	98¢	$77	0x779fbb…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x46c768…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x3bd5b0…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3a38b6…
05-22 00:19:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xc3bc39…
05-19 23:04:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0x500e6d…
05-19 23:04:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0x0e4946…
05-19 23:04:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	39	17¢	$7	0x3be181…
05-19 23:04:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	39	83¢	$32	0x37ec50…
05-19 22:48:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	2	64¢	$2	0x87e208…
05-19 22:47:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xe9129e…
05-19 22:47:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xd9e43e…
05-19 22:46:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xb76e6f…
05-19 22:46:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	1	65¢	$0	0x39e223…
05-19 22:23:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	200	35¢	$70	0x46a09c…
05-19 22:23:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x75f3ee…
05-19 22:20:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	300	82¢	$246	0xb37b9a…
05-19 22:20:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	300	17¢	$51	0xca2379…
05-19 22:18:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	191	14¢	$27	0xda29e4…
05-19 22:18:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	191	83¢	$158	0x1078a3…
05-19 22:17:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	76	18¢	$14	0xcd03e9…
05-19 22:17:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	76	82¢	$62	0xa24b5c…
05-19 21:37:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	300	79¢	$238	0xe4e319…
05-19 21:37:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	300	21¢	$63	0x4384a6…
05-19 21:00:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0x95c30f…
05-19 21:00:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0x39688b…
05-19 19:19:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0xc81748…
05-19 13:34:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xb56f83…