Ajar-Alarm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$489

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

85.1%

Resolved

Trades

849

lifetime

Volume

$17.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$28

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 06-11 00:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 96% $-493

Politics

24% 100% +$4

Other

8% — —

Tech

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 209 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+40	$34	63¢	$25	$-9	06-11 00:57
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+200	$14	1¢	$3	$-11	06-05 09:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.2K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-19 19:19
btc updown 15m 1776486600	2	$1.0K	1,009	2,000	-991	open	—	04-18 04:44
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	10	$898	0	1,811	-1,811	open	—	05-19 23:04
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	5	$759	500	500	+0	open	—	05-14 18:08
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$725	400	400	+0	open	—	05-19 03:35
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	3	$618	313	313	+0	No	+$4	05-08 20:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	5	$604	605	505	+100	open	—	05-01 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	9	$598	600	451	+149	open	—	05-01 21:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	1	$594	600	0	+600	open	—	05-01 17:41
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	1	$553	560	0	+560	open	—	05-22 03:13
btc updown 15m 1776625200	3	$500	500	500	+0	open	—	04-19 19:13
btc updown 15m 1776590100	8	$500	500	500	+0	open	—	04-19 09:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$454	648	278	+370	open	—	05-08 10:40
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	11	$403	0	818	-818	open	—	05-19 23:04
Grok 4.4 released by June 15?	1	$367	470	0	+470	open	—	06-01 12:40
btc updown 15m 1776499200	2	$302	302	300	+2	open	—	04-18 08:13
grok 4pt4 released by june 30	3	$278	1,000	245	+755	open	—	06-07 22:08
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$273	248	248	+0	open	—	05-08 16:35
btc updown 15m 1776578400	5	$259	257	500	-243	open	—	04-19 06:13
btc updown 15m 1776573000	4	$255	253	500	-247	open	—	04-19 04:42
btc updown 15m 1776619800	4	$255	255	500	-245	open	—	04-19 17:43
btc updown 15m 1776513600	2	$254	252	250	+2	open	—	04-18 12:13
btc updown 15m 1776603600	2	$254	252	500	-248	open	—	04-19 13:13
btc updown 15m 1776617100	9	$254	252	493	-241	open	—	04-19 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	4	$252	253	250	+3	Up	$-497	05-06 18:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	2	$252	252	250	+2	Up	+$5	05-06 16:13
btc updown 15m 1776615300	5	$251	252	184	+68	open	—	04-19 16:29
btc updown 15m 1776614400	1	$249	252	0	+252	open	—	04-19 16:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$197	210	0	+210	open	—	06-07 00:31
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	1	$190	200	0	+200	open	—	05-18 20:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 00:57:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0x64979b…
06-08 22:37:28	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x147741…
06-07 22:08:48	grok 4pt4 released by june 30	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x4fe19d…
06-07 19:45:45	grok 4pt4 released by june 30	No	SELL	245	43¢	$105	0xc33ae5…
06-07 00:31:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	210	94¢	$197	0x50831e…
06-05 09:19:39	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x4c6978…
06-01 22:06:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	66	87¢	$58	0x987589…
06-01 22:06:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$21	0x1c948d…
06-01 22:06:01	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xabef1e…
06-01 12:40:11	Grok 4.4 released by June 15?	No	BUY	470	78¢	$367	0xfe8509…
06-01 12:39:46	Grok 4.4 released by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	17¢	$172	0xc4f307…
05-22 03:13:58	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xe1c9cc…
05-22 03:13:14	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	No	BUY	560	99¢	$553	0x4bdfec…
05-22 03:12:34	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x68838f…
05-22 03:11:59	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0x1f386d…
05-22 03:11:55	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x7a29f2…
05-22 03:11:22	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	54	51¢	$28	0xc87453…
05-22 03:10:52	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x711de8…
05-22 00:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4add1e…
05-22 00:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x49d4e0…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x896819…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	79	98¢	$77	0x779fbb…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x46c768…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x3bd5b0…
05-22 00:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3a38b6…
05-22 00:19:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xc3bc39…
05-19 23:04:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0x500e6d…
05-19 23:04:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0x0e4946…
05-19 23:04:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	39	17¢	$7	0x3be181…
05-19 23:04:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	39	83¢	$32	0x37ec50…
05-19 22:48:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	2	64¢	$2	0x87e208…
05-19 22:47:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xe9129e…
05-19 22:47:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xd9e43e…
05-19 22:46:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xb76e6f…
05-19 22:46:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	1	65¢	$0	0x39e223…
05-19 22:23:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	200	35¢	$70	0x46a09c…
05-19 22:23:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x75f3ee…
05-19 22:20:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	300	82¢	$246	0xb37b9a…
05-19 22:20:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	300	17¢	$51	0xca2379…
05-19 22:18:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	191	14¢	$27	0xda29e4…
05-19 22:18:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	191	83¢	$158	0x1078a3…
05-19 22:17:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	76	18¢	$14	0xcd03e9…
05-19 22:17:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	76	82¢	$62	0xa24b5c…
05-19 21:37:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	300	79¢	$238	0xe4e319…
05-19 21:37:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	300	21¢	$63	0x4384a6…
05-19 21:00:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0x95c30f…
05-19 21:00:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0x39688b…
05-19 19:19:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0xc81748…
05-19 13:34:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xb56f83…
05-19 03:35:07	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	400	91¢	$365	0x155939…
05-18 20:44:06	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	90¢	$360	0x3a00cf…
05-18 20:42:49	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x7a1ee1…
05-14 18:08:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	78¢	$137	0x9d3cb3…
05-14 18:02:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0x93045e…
05-14 17:57:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	288	77¢	$222	0x764515…
05-12 12:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6358be…
05-12 12:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x2013aa…
05-12 12:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3d311c…
05-12 12:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x67485a…
05-12 12:38:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xffa2d9…
05-12 12:37:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x549015…
05-12 12:32:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x42a915…
05-12 11:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x247d80…
05-12 11:18:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xecc4b5…
05-12 11:14:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9f616e…
05-12 11:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x81dd25…
05-12 10:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x34d4ff…
05-12 10:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3a0ff9…
05-12 10:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xceb78a…
05-12 09:49:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x439fd0…
05-12 09:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa4564c…
05-12 09:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x59157b…
05-12 09:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6be1f7…
05-12 09:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9f2642…
05-12 09:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8b2324…
05-12 08:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa86ab1…
05-12 08:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb882af…
05-12 07:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4f12f5…
05-12 07:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x348bc8…
05-12 07:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x84914b…
05-12 07:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfc5d3b…
05-12 07:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8e89ff…
05-12 07:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xec1e8d…
05-12 07:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6c047b…
05-12 07:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb4fb14…
05-12 07:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x76c617…
05-12 07:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x6d37f9…
05-12 07:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0x23cde1…
05-12 07:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x880c39…
05-12 06:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x00ccf6…
05-12 06:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb14049…
05-12 04:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x8f691e…
05-12 04:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf3d642…
05-12 04:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3512f8…
05-12 04:17:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x07aed6…
05-12 03:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xd4b92d…
05-12 03:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xaf083d…
05-12 02:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa6f529…
05-12 02:24:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc8269a…
05-12 02:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5fcbb6…