Common-Contagion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$55

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

312

lifetime

Volume

$346.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.11K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-05 13:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

70% 100% +$55

Politics

28% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	12	$101.4K	51,766	61,452	-9,686	open	—	02-02 17:54
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	27	$83.0K	41,785	41,785	+0	open	—	02-03 05:09
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	7	$42.4K	21,297	21,297	+0	open	—	01-30 13:03
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	10	$21.0K	10,750	10,750	+0	open	—	05-17 14:40
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 6	2	$10.0K	5,005	5,005	+0	open	—	02-08 11:31
over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	8	$9.6K	15,007	1,441	+13,566	open	—	06-30 21:08
odds of gov shutdown over 90 on friday night	11	$9.3K	4,897	4,897	+0	open	—	01-31 05:07
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	4	$7.1K	3,703	3,703	+0	open	—	05-31 22:20
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$5.1K	4,200	4,200	+0	open	—	02-08 17:30
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	20	$4.4K	2,710	2,689	+21	open	—	05-16 08:18
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$4.4K	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	05-17 14:10
over 50m committed to the ranger public sale nd7b 655	11	$3.8K	2,992	2,992	+0	open	—	01-10 15:12
will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	7	$3.7K	2,215	2,215	+0	open	—	03-15 21:27
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$3.3K	2,248	2,248	+0	open	—	06-01 17:00
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	14	$3.1K	1,888	1,888	+0	open	—	03-15 21:28
laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	11	$2.7K	6,405	6,186	+220	open	—	07-05 13:16
over 3m committed to the laso finance public sale	3	$2.4K	1,401	1,401	+0	open	—	06-30 20:37
over 800k committed to the cambria public sale	2	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	03-04 14:24
over 70m committed to the ranger public sale rwrn 523	15	$2.4K	2,213	2,213	+0	open	—	01-10 13:04
over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale	5	$2.3K	1,535	1,535	+0	open	—	06-30 21:11
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	12	$2.2K	1,607	1,607	+0	open	—	05-16 08:17
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026	3	$1.9K	1,881	0	+1,881	open	—	05-02 17:32
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$1.6K	1,851	699	+1,153	open	—	03-02 00:27
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$1.6K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-17 14:16
will sarah knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	11	$1.5K	1,108	1,108	+0	open	—	03-15 21:48
will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	15	$1.4K	1,309	1,409	-100	open	—	02-27 20:58
Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	7	$1.4K	1,028	383	+645	open	—	01-30 15:28
Will Loopscale launch a token by March 31, 2026?	19	$1.3K	682	682	+0	open	—	03-13 14:29
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	2	$1.3K	739	739	+0	open	—	05-15 17:50
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8?	3	$1.0K	595	595	+0	Up	+$12	05-08 12:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 13:16:56	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	SELL	300	1¢	$4	0xe27456…
07-05 11:36:37	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	SELL	181	2¢	$3	0x8d7d9d…
07-05 10:54:47	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	SELL	5,500	4¢	$209	0x88a142…
07-05 04:40:40	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x34a271…
07-04 20:36:14	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	SELL	105	36¢	$38	0x9e1e98…
07-04 19:42:26	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	BUY	1,189	40¢	$475	0xbe6c09…
07-04 19:27:59	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	BUY	48	37¢	$18	0x92a174…
07-04 19:26:10	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	BUY	4,803	40¢	$1,901	0x098323…
07-04 19:21:19	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x1dbe83…
07-04 19:20:25	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	BUY	84	23¢	$19	0x35cb9a…
07-04 19:19:40	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	BUY	251	25¢	$64	0x3b3f7a…
06-30 21:11:17	over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	1,535	85¢	$1,307	0x48330f…
06-30 21:08:28	over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	186	97¢	$180	0x1fc3f0…
06-30 21:07:34	over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	1,255	97¢	$1,218	0xe732bd…
06-30 20:43:22	over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	228	72¢	$164	0x58c977…
06-30 20:41:40	over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	677	69¢	$466	0x69651c…
06-30 20:38:52	over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	34	52¢	$17	0x4c3a4e…
06-30 20:38:44	over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	597	52¢	$310	0x60c7b5…
06-30 20:37:08	over 3m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	1,401	94¢	$1,317	0x5de5ee…
06-27 17:35:17	over 3m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	801	80¢	$641	0x8d3d1c…
06-27 17:21:40	over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	283	70¢	$198	0xf858b0…
06-27 15:07:35	over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	176	68¢	$120	0x6b1de2…
06-27 15:03:28	over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	2,957	68¢	$2,000	0x231969…
06-27 14:49:50	over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	1,176	64¢	$750	0xbf8310…
06-27 14:36:19	over 3m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	600	75¢	$450	0x7ab06f…
06-26 22:18:17	over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	415	47¢	$195	0xe5045c…
06-26 16:53:01	over 5m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	10,000	49¢	$4,900	0x8c677e…
06-01 17:00:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,248	99¢	$2,226	0xb1a763…
06-01 16:59:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,248	49¢	$1,099	0x965670…
05-31 22:20:05	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	3,703	99¢	$3,662	0xae2e52…
05-31 12:20:27	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x75ecf4…
05-31 12:11:59	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	176	93¢	$163	0x63ce47…
05-31 09:02:03	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	3,500	93¢	$3,255	0x9e9188…
05-17 14:40:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	8,750	98¢	$8,549	0x9bdb8f…
05-17 14:16:59	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	793	97¢	$771	0xe0858f…
05-17 14:11:49	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$2	0x3be3d8…
05-17 14:11:48	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x72dee7…
05-17 14:11:48	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x389146…
05-17 14:10:53	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2,250	97¢	$2,185	0x82c22d…
05-17 13:58:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2,000	97¢	$1,938	0x093821…
05-17 13:56:41	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	800	97¢	$773	0x6eefb8…
05-17 13:55:49	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2,000	97¢	$1,934	0xaf0e3a…
05-17 13:51:30	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,750	97¢	$1,694	0x05ec02…
05-17 13:51:02	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$482	0xa929b6…
05-17 13:09:10	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,267	98¢	$1,236	0x3cf6e3…
05-17 13:05:46	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,208	98¢	$1,179	0x635885…
05-17 13:02:05	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x6259d0…
05-17 13:01:51	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x712ae4…
05-17 13:00:34	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0xa79df8…
05-17 12:59:45	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	900	98¢	$879	0xcb5972…
05-17 12:55:49	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5,250	98¢	$5,140	0x89768f…
05-16 08:18:31	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	253	79¢	$200	0xc7b93d…
05-16 08:18:22	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	400	79¢	$316	0xcbc867…
05-16 08:18:11	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0xfa3a88…
05-16 08:17:12	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	211	76¢	$160	0xca229a…
05-16 07:56:42	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	334	76¢	$254	0xd5a451…
05-16 07:56:05	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	220	81¢	$178	0xba6adf…
05-16 06:39:31	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xcc7ce5…
05-16 02:52:10	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	265	81¢	$215	0x271b77…
05-16 02:24:13	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0x7a0195…
05-16 01:51:32	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	31	81¢	$25	0x9193ee…
05-15 21:51:31	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	455	76¢	$346	0x79ce0b…
05-15 21:37:47	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	607	74¢	$449	0x316a24…
05-15 17:50:11	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	739	84¢	$621	0x24df79…
05-15 17:42:19	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	739	86¢	$636	0x3e260d…
05-15 15:17:20	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	214	67¢	$143	0xaafa8f…
05-15 15:16:57	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	260	67¢	$175	0x4e66ad…
05-15 13:10:45	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x7ffa8b…
05-15 12:43:21	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	75	64¢	$48	0x9add28…
05-15 12:43:09	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	175	64¢	$112	0x8b4c2c…
05-15 12:34:40	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0x318268…
05-15 12:33:44	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	277	63¢	$175	0x581e0a…
05-15 09:27:20	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	380	60¢	$228	0xfb869e…
05-15 09:26:52	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	344	78¢	$268	0xbfb105…
05-14 14:32:04	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	118	81¢	$96	0xc9a649…
05-14 14:27:38	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	99	81¢	$80	0xadeeca…
05-14 14:23:23	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x247720…
05-14 13:41:30	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x76272c…
05-14 13:22:31	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0xbf325c…
05-14 13:17:47	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	90	81¢	$73	0x7bbc40…
05-14 12:51:30	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	159	84¢	$133	0xf2d060…
05-14 12:38:05	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	66	84¢	$56	0x53154e…
05-14 11:11:17	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	1,000	84¢	$840	0xc526eb…
05-14 10:57:35	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	866	84¢	$727	0x27cb9a…
05-14 10:47:24	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	866	83¢	$719	0xc6c352…
05-08 13:24:00	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	410	70¢	$285	0x5a3500…
05-08 13:08:03	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	160	75¢	$120	0x3a9be0…
05-08 12:44:04	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x59b41e…
05-08 12:42:44	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xae42d1…
05-08 12:42:35	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x7efac1…
05-08 12:41:14	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	215	77¢	$165	0x0ab98a…
05-08 12:40:31	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x5fd97a…
05-08 12:37:36	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	35	54¢	$19	0xfad9e7…
05-08 12:36:52	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	350	55¢	$193	0xb32264…
05-08 12:36:29	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	385	52¢	$200	0x6f3c33…
05-08 12:33:45	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	595	86¢	$512	0xd7624d…
05-08 12:31:11	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	595	84¢	$500	0x309bf0…
05-08 12:25:52	Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0x0e33a9…
05-08 12:23:06	Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x7db6b7…
05-08 12:22:57	Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	211	100¢	$211	0xc5af1b…