Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

60.8%

Resolved

124

Trades

139

lifetime

Volume

$189

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-07-28

last 11-05 02:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 55 days

Categories

Other

79% 65% +$17

Politics

19% 65% +$6

Tech

3% 33% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	+11	$2	12¢	$1	-$1	09-03 21:24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	11-03 08:29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	+1	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	11-01 05:12
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+5	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	10-25 22:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 02:59:03	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x192762…
11-04 09:32:24	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 4?	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x59199f…
11-04 01:11:18	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x7a7e06…
11-03 16:55:12	Will AMD say "Debt" during earnings call?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9929ce…
11-03 08:29:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x683ad5…
11-03 00:18:24	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x744400…
11-02 16:17:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x6d601e…
11-02 08:15:15	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x458d8e…
11-02 00:15:03	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x21cad2…
11-01 05:12:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9cf9e0…
10-30 01:53:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x690fca…
10-29 13:56:43	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x18f53e…
10-29 04:01:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x8eb501…
10-28 20:01:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xefafb2…
10-28 20:01:16	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xdf0eae…
10-28 11:58:55	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xe02b95…
10-28 03:58:49	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9c6bbb…
10-28 03:57:44	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4c055a…
10-27 19:47:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x305f16…
10-27 11:46:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x6fd7d8…
10-27 03:36:15	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xf6579f…
10-26 14:59:06	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $276 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xb19a79…
10-26 06:58:15	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb6db3e…
10-25 22:57:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x285be7…
10-25 14:47:50	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x006979…
10-25 06:35:03	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x0f8996…
10-23 12:55:47	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x0d488c…
10-23 04:43:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x213e7b…
10-22 20:32:50	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x32963a…
10-22 12:21:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xa2ba8d…
10-22 11:17:21	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x4259d8…
10-21 21:13:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x65e18b…
10-21 12:18:00	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21?	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xe5ceae…
10-21 04:05:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe30e8f…
10-20 15:50:30	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 20?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x6bb9f4…
10-20 07:50:17	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa82385…
10-19 23:49:57	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xf4b9de…
10-19 15:48:21	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4f47f5…
10-19 07:23:38	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xfe11d4…
10-18 23:21:42	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb19fab…
10-18 12:11:12	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x9a0461…
10-18 00:14:06	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x3c8310…
10-17 15:54:42	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x323fe4…
10-16 12:19:55	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x3b1e1c…
10-16 01:52:10	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe2eb29…
10-15 17:03:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xcc86c5…
10-15 08:57:07	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x34af36…
10-15 00:37:23	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x6c9b48…
10-15 00:09:58	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x64cca4…
10-14 15:37:46	will coin reach 182 50 by october 12 2026 from october 13	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x93e7a8…
10-14 07:34:46	will msft dip to 540 by october 12 2026 from october 13	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x40430a…
10-14 07:34:38	spy up or down on october 14 2026	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xdfcae2…
10-13 23:18:06	will xagusd reach 60 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x5cb8a0…
10-13 14:14:08	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x42744f…
10-13 06:09:27	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x834e92…
10-12 22:09:11	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x211fb8…
10-12 14:08:56	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x43c030…
10-12 06:08:17	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $102.50 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x656f1b…
10-11 22:08:09	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xded578…
10-11 10:54:24	Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x06ce2a…
10-10 21:58:12	Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.8B?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x22a80d…
10-10 06:28:12	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe4a8a9…
10-09 15:27:12	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xdd37dd…
10-09 05:40:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x99f9ab…
10-08 21:39:50	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x0b98f0…
10-08 13:39:29	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 8?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x33417c…
10-08 03:59:37	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 8?	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xab4514…
10-07 19:45:03	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xe0b28c…
10-07 11:25:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6649b7…
10-07 02:48:35	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x0396fd…
10-06 18:47:29	will coin reach 190 by october 5 2026 from october 6	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x2bb706…
10-06 10:45:45	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 6?	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xd9a0e5…
10-06 02:27:55	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x617eb7…
10-05 17:52:10	will pltr reach 192 by october 5 2026 from october 5	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x49a0f9…
10-05 00:53:44	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xac23b7…
10-02 07:33:15	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2?	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6a4175…
10-01 11:31:27	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb5644a…
10-01 03:29:32	trump names ai czar by october 4 2026 20260928	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x4263b2…
09-30 18:51:39	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xa330a1…
09-30 07:39:29	will xagusd reach 62 in september 2026	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x054c86…
09-29 23:35:39	will ewy reach 189 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x700fd6…
09-29 14:04:09	will wti reach 95 by september 28 2026 from september 28	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf7965d…
09-29 05:29:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 29?	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x37f968…
09-29 05:26:45	will msft reach 525 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xb5d711…
09-28 21:24:47	will xagusd reach 64 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xba3025…
09-28 12:33:17	will meta dip to 710 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x50839c…
09-28 04:29:45	will nflx reach 72 50 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa1fa6e…
09-27 20:00:44	will xagusd reach 66 in september 2026 from september 23	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x02d105…
09-27 11:45:24	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd069ce…
09-27 02:36:41	pakistan military action against afghanistan by september 30 2026 20260925	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x3c2288…
09-26 07:41:42	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xbc5531…
09-25 21:52:11	will googl dip to 340 in september 2026 from september 24	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x7e750b…
09-25 13:51:50	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x19b354…
09-25 03:48:26	will xagusd reach 65 by september 21 2026	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x49a14f…
09-24 19:43:05	will mu dip to 1050 by september 21 2026 from september 24	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x42cd62…
09-24 11:11:18	Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4b9485…
09-24 03:08:56	will trump say ballroom during xi jinpings state arrival	No	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x7cfe9e…
09-23 19:08:41	Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xbc8af3…
09-23 11:06:38	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x47f0b1…
09-23 03:00:20	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x07f654…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	2	$5	10	+10	Yes	-$1	09-19 07:51
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 7	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$1	09-08 15:19
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-23 11:06
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-08 01:07
spx up or down on september 16 2026	1	$2	6	+6	Down	+$3	09-16 06:56
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-23 03:00
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	09-08 07:18
will warsh say pandemic during september press conference 20260909	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-15 22:55
Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-23 19:08
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$1	09-17 19:53
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-18 22:45
will warsh say anchor during september press conference 20260909	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	09-16 15:26
will aapl reach 308 by august 17 2026	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	-$2	08-18 03:56
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $110 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-21 06:46
will nflx dip to 75 by august 17 2026	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-17 10:52
ng up or down on august 3 2026	1	$2	6	+6	Down	-$2	08-03 13:05
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 11	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-02 18:26
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-11 20:30
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$1	08-17 19:55
will aapl dip to 300 by august 10 2026	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-12 04:32
Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	09-01 09:57
will trump say barack hussein obama during remarks in new york 20260811183234695	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-13 00:39
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	1	$2	10	+10	Yes	-$2	08-01 16:14
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	1	$2	11	+11	open	—	09-03 21:24
grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-11 12:27
will trump say supreme court during remarks in new york 20260811183234696	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-12 04:32
will aapl dip to 296 by august 17 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-17 01:15
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-02 21:01
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of August 31 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-03 12:33
will the white house call a full lid by 630 pm on august 8 20260730202035444	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-03 05:03