Bowed-Pigeon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$280

Unrealized P&L

+$20

Hit rate

85.9%

Resolved

Trades

236

lifetime

Volume

$25.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$107

Open exposure

$212

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-03 17:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 60% +$280

Other

31% — —

Politics

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		-400	$-232	53¢	$-212	+$20	05-29 19:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US strike Somalia next?	4	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	02-19 16:41
OneFootball FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$1.0K	530	528	+2	No	+$17	04-10 14:55
Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?	5	$972	600	600	+0	Yes	+$12	04-08 17:26
P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?	2	$921	570	557	+13	No	+$159	04-02 14:02
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	4	$915	500	500	+0	open	—	04-07 17:16
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$816	500	496	+4	open	—	04-22 17:34
will vertiv holdings vrt be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	5	$786	600	600	+0	open	—	02-15 17:24
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	5	$755	500	500	+0	open	—	04-21 08:50
Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale?	5	$735	517	505	+11	open	—	04-11 06:22
Unitas Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?	5	$734	450	450	+0	Yes	+$76	03-14 07:01
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	5	$686	700	700	+0	Yes	$-42	03-21 07:52
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	5	$672	890	400	+490	Yes	+$42	04-16 17:25
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch?	6	$650	500	500	+0	open	—	01-20 20:07
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?	5	$608	450	450	+0	open	—	01-19 19:58
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	5	$580	500	500	+0	open	—	03-24 17:42
Will Marvell Q1 Data Center revenue be above $1.85B?	3	$578	470	470	+0	open	—	05-18 18:05
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$545	470	470	+0	open	—	02-07 18:37
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$497	350	350	+0	Yes	+$21	04-25 20:19
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	5	$480	400	400	+0	open	—	01-18 20:53
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$464	400	400	+0	open	—	02-08 08:17
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$452	380	380	+0	open	—	04-13 16:02
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	5	$433	500	470	+30	open	—	03-13 18:37
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?	2	$425	500	500	+0	open	—	03-18 16:19
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	2	$410	500	500	+0	open	—	03-11 15:07
tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	4	$399	300	300	+0	open	—	06-18 15:27
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch?	2	$378	390	390	+0	open	—	06-03 14:45
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	4	$360	400	400	+0	open	—	06-07 07:39
will the percentage change in the sp 500 in q1 2026 be less than 0	2	$359	520	520	+0	open	—	03-04 16:45
will google gemini be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 23	7	$356	269	270	-1	open	—	01-18 07:20
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 13 19	4	$348	200	200	+0	open	—	01-12 20:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 17:08:10	ethereum above 1500 on july 4 2026	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x01dfb3…
06-18 15:27:19	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x47711d…
06-18 15:27:11	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	200	70¢	$140	0x60bee9…
06-17 16:08:28	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x54f90c…
06-17 16:08:19	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x591e8d…
06-16 15:02:17	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	150	46¢	$69	0xd20c2f…
06-16 15:02:10	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	229	46¢	$105	0xb9645a…
06-15 14:49:27	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	150	41¢	$61	0x72d92b…
06-15 14:49:16	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	229	41¢	$94	0xb4d708…
06-11 17:00:39	ostium fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	SELL	397	43¢	$171	0x295eea…
06-09 15:51:10	ostium fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	BUY	397	42¢	$167	0x200b9c…
06-07 07:39:25	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	40¢	$64	0xa73f8e…
06-07 07:38:40	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	240	40¢	$96	0xe75da8…
06-05 16:51:18	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	50¢	$80	0x23cd6a…
06-05 16:51:09	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	50¢	$120	0x35961a…
06-03 14:45:30	Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	SELL	390	47¢	$183	0x36357f…
05-30 11:57:01	Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	390	50¢	$195	0x9d5558…
05-29 19:32:49	Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xc08681…
05-29 19:32:47	Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0xbc8b39…
05-28 18:28:29	Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	130	60¢	$78	0xd94d80…
05-28 18:28:06	Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	190	60¢	$114	0x5e5456…
05-18 18:05:54	Will Marvell Q1 Data Center revenue be above $1.85B?	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x9eb732…
05-18 18:04:37	Will Marvell Q1 Data Center revenue be above $1.85B?	No	SELL	467	62¢	$290	0x03759e…
05-17 15:50:31	Will Marvell Q1 Data Center revenue be above $1.85B?	No	BUY	470	61¢	$287	0x7640f0…
05-10 19:59:31	Will the price of Solana be above $30 on May 11?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x1327f6…
04-25 20:19:04	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	350	74¢	$259	0x3c6884…
04-24 16:09:32	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	350	68¢	$238	0x8e8e2b…
04-22 17:34:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	496	82¢	$406	0xd71558…
04-21 19:27:26	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0xbb4cb0…
04-21 08:50:24	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	27	74¢	$20	0x23010c…
04-21 08:49:00	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	170	75¢	$128	0xaa4e7d…
04-21 08:48:48	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	302	75¢	$227	0xb7b292…
04-20 19:29:08	xrp above 1pt1 on april 21	No	BUY	805	0¢	$1	0x9bbf9d…
04-20 19:14:16	xrp above 1pt1 on april 21	No	BUY	53	0¢	$0	0x9367de…
04-20 19:09:32	xrp above 1pt1 on april 21	No	BUY	1,142	0¢	$1	0x8dfc9b…
04-20 18:24:18	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	180	76¢	$137	0x90c988…
04-20 18:24:08	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	320	76¢	$243	0x24074a…
04-16 17:25:54	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	265	89¢	$236	0x4e58e3…
04-16 17:25:48	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	89¢	$22	0x55316b…
04-16 17:25:40	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x3bb557…
04-13 16:02:51	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	380	60¢	$228	0x32e10a…
04-11 17:24:15	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	380	59¢	$224	0x8158c2…
04-11 06:22:09	Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale?	No	SELL	499	75¢	$374	0x91d951…
04-10 21:47:11	OneFootball FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,485	0¢	$1	0x1411c9…
04-10 18:10:31	Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x2598fc…
04-10 18:09:55	Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale?	Yes	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0x66904f…
04-10 18:09:11	Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale?	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x38ac90…
04-10 18:07:19	Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale?	No	BUY	500	70¢	$350	0x0813b3…
04-10 14:55:35	OneFootball FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	528	99¢	$524	0xcf8c56…
04-09 18:56:23	OneFootball FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,600	0¢	$3	0x127902…
04-08 17:26:27	Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	35	82¢	$28	0x11db8a…
04-08 16:29:03	OneFootball FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	330	96¢	$317	0x9b1b7a…
04-08 16:28:05	OneFootball FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xae5d20…
04-08 14:54:43	Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	424	82¢	$348	0xbc7f3a…
04-08 14:54:31	Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	141	82¢	$116	0x788c3c…
04-07 18:26:07	Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0x28247d…
04-07 18:25:57	Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	450	80¢	$360	0x21f507…
04-07 17:16:41	Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x07893d…
04-07 17:16:29	Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	91¢	$273	0xd7e282…
04-06 16:35:19	Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x4e6b81…
04-06 16:35:09	Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	92¢	$276	0x083b00…
04-02 14:02:53	P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?	No	SELL	557	96¢	$533	0xc27f06…
04-01 14:38:43	P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?	No	BUY	570	68¢	$388	0xd80d16…
03-29 08:11:22	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	400	28¢	$112	0x171b60…
03-26 16:08:45	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	400	31¢	$124	0x32a6d1…
03-26 09:47:13	Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x3d62cd…
03-26 09:46:43	Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xbe1b12…
03-26 09:46:15	Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x02a2b1…
03-26 09:46:09	Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x391589…
03-24 17:42:13	Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	SELL	7	52¢	$4	0x51cd2e…
03-24 17:41:07	Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	SELL	197	55¢	$108	0x5a90ce…
03-24 17:40:55	Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	SELL	296	55¢	$163	0xbba300…
03-21 12:53:27	Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x015457…
03-21 12:53:15	Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	BUY	300	61¢	$183	0xc92e1a…
03-21 07:52:21	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	250	46¢	$115	0x5d90c1…
03-21 07:52:07	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	450	46¢	$207	0x2d143f…
03-19 19:45:49	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	150	52¢	$78	0xec5622…
03-19 19:37:15	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	250	52¢	$130	0x40fb82…
03-19 19:37:07	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	300	52¢	$156	0xe47fd5…
03-18 16:19:33	Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	500	42¢	$210	0xe2dcd5…
03-16 17:34:01	Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	500	43¢	$215	0xa36716…
03-14 07:01:29	Unitas Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0x4cfdc2…
03-14 07:01:05	Unitas Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	250	90¢	$225	0x885081…
03-13 19:59:07	Unitas Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0xc8d148…
03-13 19:58:39	Unitas Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0xc6acac…
03-13 19:58:15	Unitas Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	239	73¢	$174	0xa8129a…
03-13 18:37:25	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0x1e8e5a…
03-13 17:58:53	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	170	41¢	$70	0xc0099d…
03-13 17:57:35	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	270	41¢	$111	0xe34369…
03-12 20:09:03	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0x0ab3d3…
03-12 20:08:53	Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	300	48¢	$144	0x118326…
03-11 15:07:47	EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	SELL	500	37¢	$185	0xdb5821…
03-09 17:57:57	EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	500	45¢	$225	0x74be19…
03-09 17:05:47	will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	Yes	SELL	200	47¢	$94	0xe22b1c…
03-09 17:05:35	will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	Yes	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0x54ff36…
03-05 16:21:29	will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x963a9e…
03-05 16:21:13	will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	Yes	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x70ef50…
03-04 18:55:31	btc updown 5m 1772650500	Down	BUY	136	74¢	$100	0xf8f597…
03-04 18:50:13	btc updown 5m 1772649900	Down	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0xd01fa3…
03-04 18:48:57	btc updown 5m 1772649900	Down	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x895d01…