Austere-Scale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

290

Trades

291

lifetime

Volume

$3.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-06 06:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 234 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$5

Politics

3% 80% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on November 6?	No		+8	$8	100¢	$8	+$0	11-06 06:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$24	24	+24	No	-$24	05-15 05:16
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 14?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-14 07:28
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 13?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-13 05:31
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 12?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-12 10:00
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-12 03:47
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-11 07:57
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 10?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-10 05:18
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 9?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-09 06:42
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-08 10:30
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 06:09
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 01:31
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-07 10:20
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 01:38
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-06 12:18
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-06 04:13
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-05 11:22
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-04 05:49
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-05 02:31
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-03 12:26
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-02 04:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$1	04-12 02:19
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-08 10:14
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$22	23	+23	No	+$0	04-07 06:53
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 6 2026 29c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-06 09:40
highest temperature in beijing on april 5 2026 21c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-05 08:53
highest temperature in lucknow on april 4 2026 35c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-04 13:38
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 3 2026 29c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-03 12:27
highest temperature in los angeles on april 2 2026 70 71f	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-03 02:14
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 2 2026 27c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 14:40
highest temperature in wellington on april 2 2026 20c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 06:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 06:33:06	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on November 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe0ad70…
11-04 13:04:28	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2a0266…
11-03 17:17:09	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x96ca31…
11-02 06:24:52	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc994a0…
10-31 15:55:57	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc5307f…
10-30 14:56:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe53b9d…
10-29 17:52:56	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd9102e…
10-29 09:28:56	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3c77ab…
10-28 07:55:01	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe463e7…
10-27 09:20:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x137d05…
10-26 09:33:47	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb663a6…
10-24 11:49:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x239549…
10-22 10:28:05	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x04a2e4…
10-20 07:43:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x85b560…
10-19 09:28:11	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3bedd7…
10-18 10:16:03	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x32cd00…
10-17 15:41:18	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb12c95…
10-16 10:05:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7f9d7d…
10-15 13:35:56	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd9de7a…
10-14 09:45:59	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x20e010…
10-13 09:25:32	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd13883…
10-12 09:33:35	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc9b946…
10-11 09:14:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x10c93c…
10-08 12:29:17	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe4f6c7…
10-07 15:42:43	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x328fcc…
10-06 15:07:00	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0f56cf…
10-05 06:26:38	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or below on October 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1f1f84…
10-03 09:09:35	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7b9740…
10-02 13:28:06	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6db8bd…
10-01 09:24:29	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa05aa0…
09-30 02:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9c1863…
09-28 09:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdd82b0…
09-27 09:06:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4443fb…
09-25 16:18:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7c16ee…
09-24 08:43:56	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x335dd2…
09-23 08:50:17	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9f0091…
09-22 08:35:42	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8f0858…
09-21 09:41:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbae01c…
09-20 05:56:00	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x94fcd7…
09-19 08:59:01	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1a5a11…
09-18 07:46:43	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x78562c…
09-17 04:13:03	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6ebf25…
09-16 08:56:28	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc1bc90…
09-15 10:21:10	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x96a40d…
09-14 09:16:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x38f175…
09-13 03:35:57	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6b676a…
09-11 09:24:18	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x466981…
09-10 08:43:24	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1af1dc…
09-09 02:39:42	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x78bf55…
09-08 06:15:49	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7113a8…
09-07 08:46:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcbda7b…
09-06 16:04:49	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2cb574…
09-06 10:43:57	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6e0241…
09-05 01:22:06	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x66f720…
09-04 01:01:12	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x339deb…
09-02 07:56:10	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa3396b…
08-30 09:30:45	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9b8cb0…
08-29 09:44:21	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x06ae43…
08-28 08:52:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x63ec9a…
08-27 09:08:51	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x644932…
08-26 08:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x59da2d…
08-25 09:43:09	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe29133…
08-24 14:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x71e8d2…
08-23 15:06:49	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9a6064…
08-22 09:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xccd576…
08-21 08:30:46	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7c3728…
08-20 09:12:42	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0ba361…
08-18 08:31:31	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf2d4a6…
08-17 08:20:54	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0ea859…
08-16 14:24:31	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xac4d0f…
08-15 10:06:25	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9fc1ba…
08-14 06:58:09	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc848f9…
08-13 09:03:45	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0a6527…
08-12 09:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a957f…
08-11 07:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xef8193…
08-10 08:14:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xded918…
08-09 06:16:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x17c243…
08-08 07:46:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x250ebf…
08-07 08:19:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xee384a…
08-06 07:41:39	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x40f93c…
08-05 08:04:18	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3cc764…
08-04 08:27:35	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd16df3…
08-03 07:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5ef52f…
08-02 06:34:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb12925…
08-01 07:16:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x21fa4b…
07-31 14:11:20	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5ec675…
07-30 07:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3d3f17…
07-29 07:15:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbbff61…
07-28 07:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x05c42f…
07-27 09:38:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb2304a…
07-26 07:26:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x56f4ca…
07-25 09:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc661e1…
07-24 13:34:57	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x333a24…
07-23 08:28:06	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x17c08d…
07-22 02:10:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc4ddbc…
07-21 09:21:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0a494a…
07-21 00:22:42	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x54dec3…
07-20 08:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9394a2…
07-18 23:28:06	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x97f4e5…
07-18 05:13:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xccf647…