Weak-Embellishment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.32K

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

50.7%

Resolved

165

Trades

889

lifetime

Volume

$48.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

$100

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 10-29 16:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

77% 57% -$2,676

Politics

11% 75% +$363

Tech

7% 78% +$371

Sports

5% 18% -$332

Crypto

0% 0% -$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes		+100	$66	72¢	$72	+$6	07-03 21:43
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes		+100	$29	29¢	$29	$0	07-03 21:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	58	$5.5K	9,186	6,368	+2,818	No	-$1,437	02-02 03:22
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	14	$3.5K	50,806	1,000	+49,806	Yes	-$3,424	02-02 01:13
will russia enter kupiansk vuzlovyi by february 28	3	$2.0K	1,048	1,048	+0	Yes	-$8	02-01 16:52
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$9	01-31 05:50
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$30	02-01 17:35
will laura virginia fernndez delgado win the 2026 costa rican presidential election	8	$1.8K	955	955	+0	Yes	+$13	01-31 19:46
cs2 9z shin 2026 01 22 game1	9	$1.7K	2,620	725	+1,896	ShindeN	+$50	01-22 17:46
will apple run an ad during super bowl lx	8	$1.6K	1,578	950	+628	Yes	-$167	02-09 02:18
will there be 7 9 inches of snow in dc in january	6	$1.3K	688	688	-0	Yes	+$88	02-01 17:30
will trump meet with keir starmer in january 2026	2	$1.2K	630	630	+0	No	+$35	01-26 19:11
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	14	$1.1K	1,483	0	+1,483	Yes	+$366	06-08 21:49
will there be 10 12 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	16	$1.0K	674	379	+295	Yes	+$35	01-27 04:53
Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	27	$944	1,274	669	+605	No	-$195	07-17 01:09
will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	79	$924	885	434	+450	Yes	+$231	02-15 16:36
will powell say inflation 40 times during january press conference	3	$830	800	200	+600	No	-$498	01-28 05:07
will the uk join the board of peace	2	$729	314	500	-186	No	+$47	01-27 04:01
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$605	500	500	+0	No	-$5	02-01 17:35
another critical cloudflare incident by february 28	10	$602	2,806	0	+2,806	Yes	+$2,204	02-04 17:29
another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 723 844 877 246 427 922	4	$548	1,451	0	+1,451	Yes	+$904	02-02 16:01
will trump meet with king mohammed vi of morocco in january 2026	3	$541	280	280	+0	No	+$13	01-28 04:04
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	4	$531	625	0	+625	Legacy	+$94	05-13 01:09
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	49	$515	582	482	+100	Yes	+$2	10-29 15:27
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?	9	$485	624	0	+624	Yes	+$140	06-08 17:49
another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	13	$475	621	0	+621	Yes	+$145	02-15 01:27
will zelenskyy attend the world economic forum	13	$469	1,072	0	+1,072	Yes	+$67	01-22 06:40
cs2 pcy mars 2026 01 31 game2	3	$465	531	0	+531	Marsborne	+$66	01-31 23:28
will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in january 2026	7	$460	497	0	+497	Yes	+$37	01-22 07:01
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	2	$447	789	0	+789	No	-$447	02-13 03:22
cs2 fal2 aur1 2026 02 01	4	$427	259	259	+0	Aurora Gaming	+$90	02-01 17:31
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	10	$412	510	0	+510	No	-$27	07-22 03:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 16:10:43	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc4fe7a…
10-29 15:27:17	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	39	14¢	$5	0xaaeb59…
10-29 15:26:53	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x194489…
10-29 15:26:44	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0xd29779…
10-29 15:26:43	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	Yes	BUY	95	16¢	$15	0xb9d74f…
10-29 00:35:47	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xea57c4…
10-29 00:35:47	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	44	78¢	$34	0x9967d3…
10-29 00:18:50	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x6e27c6…
10-29 00:15:22	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xc8fa0e…
10-29 00:15:22	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x5860af…
10-29 00:14:29	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xf09396…
10-28 14:33:50	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	63	35¢	$22	0x3d2244…
10-27 13:15:23	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x4a9a56…
10-27 13:15:21	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	No	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0x458209…
10-27 13:15:21	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x0ce126…
10-27 13:15:20	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	67	70¢	$47	0xcefb45…
10-27 10:03:29	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x7ecb5d…
10-27 10:03:24	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x31e5fb…
10-27 10:03:23	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x12de7a…
10-27 10:03:20	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xe4ff36…
10-27 10:03:17	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xffaaee…
10-27 10:03:08	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x23b21b…
10-27 09:49:06	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x07be88…
10-27 03:46:53	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0x2c2ad5…
10-27 02:33:30	Will Seattle have less than 1.75 inches of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xa5d7b5…
10-27 02:26:41	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x011c1a…
10-27 02:26:35	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xd46fb8…
10-27 02:15:51	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xa3c8a6…
10-27 02:05:17	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	11	28¢	$3	0x802276…
10-27 02:05:17	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x4afbca…
10-27 01:58:06	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x1d3ef4…
10-27 00:56:48	Will Seattle have less than 1.75 inches of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	44	37¢	$16	0x6e2451…
10-26 23:39:17	Will Seattle have less than 1.75 inches of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x301421…
10-26 21:22:00	Will Seattle have less than 1.75 inches of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x76279a…
10-26 18:29:35	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x6f49f7…
10-26 18:29:35	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x6ab923…
10-26 18:29:35	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x087283…
10-26 06:44:32	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	41	19¢	$8	0x835aa9…
10-26 06:44:32	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x427e73…
10-26 06:44:21	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	68	79¢	$54	0xd6aa08…
10-25 16:12:48	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	58	75¢	$43	0x7f2ee4…
10-25 11:53:24	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x600ae9…
10-25 07:05:24	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x9c01a8…
10-25 06:26:20	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x75d5df…
10-25 06:23:51	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	18	32¢	$6	0x30ef6e…
10-25 06:14:21	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	35	74¢	$26	0x2b44de…
10-25 00:08:48	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	30	42¢	$12	0x4f667b…
10-24 23:37:36	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xaeb4ec…
10-24 19:44:51	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	Yes	SELL	51	10¢	$5	0x40f5e3…
10-24 12:54:57	Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x042832…
10-24 04:29:15	Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$1	0x020741…
10-24 00:43:14	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x629a82…
10-22 04:26:42	Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	1	57¢	$0	0x3ed5a5…
10-21 20:28:02	Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	43	1¢	$0	0xd716ff…
10-21 11:57:50	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	9	70¢	$6	0x02454f…
10-21 09:23:21	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0xf2cb6a…
10-21 09:15:50	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x1ae6a0…
10-19 02:20:23	Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	68	76¢	$52	0x6d4b5d…
10-19 02:19:48	Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	29	76¢	$22	0x5fa297…
10-19 02:04:44	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	51	59¢	$30	0xb19e0d…
10-16 01:55:37	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x823e94…
10-15 09:29:56	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	0	41¢	$0	0xdfb922…
10-13 16:43:04	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	21	93¢	$20	0x29b050…
10-13 03:35:29	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xf08936…
10-12 18:26:41	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	40	56¢	$22	0x5ffc84…
10-12 17:05:26	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x77cc28…
10-12 17:05:26	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x1e5e33…
10-12 16:18:42	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xa84b6a…
10-12 12:49:47	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x5ba985…
10-12 11:23:53	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xd0fca0…
10-12 11:23:35	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	BUY	148	42¢	$62	0x951940…
10-12 07:15:32	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb8536c…
10-12 07:14:14	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0x9bf69b…
10-11 04:27:41	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x42191e…
10-11 04:03:45	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xf6e7c8…
10-11 02:12:59	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	No	BUY	29	78¢	$23	0xbc4250…
10-10 20:28:06	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0xdb2178…
10-10 09:27:33	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	Yes	SELL	52	22¢	$11	0x4c7f5a…
10-09 20:19:32	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	Yes	SELL	16	22¢	$4	0x6242b1…
10-09 15:58:24	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x48e3ea…
10-07 08:18:18	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0xf1bc4c…
10-06 11:57:10	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	45	57¢	$26	0xe805bb…
10-05 13:15:28	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x077732…
10-05 13:06:55	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x03ae36…
10-04 23:50:11	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0x63a282…
10-04 23:17:13	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x0b9349…
10-04 22:24:37	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	Yes	BUY	28	12¢	$3	0xa4ea90…
10-04 19:03:56	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x68346d…
10-04 16:39:44	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0xe9e1bf…
10-04 16:16:17	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x234c93…
10-04 13:23:40	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x21e83b…
10-04 13:22:41	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x3b8d57…
10-04 11:03:41	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xc30340…
10-04 10:48:40	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0x48006a…
10-04 10:42:16	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x7742d7…
10-04 10:20:40	Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x2b17bc…
10-04 02:45:40	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x48f1ca…
10-04 02:27:08	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	BUY	41	76¢	$31	0x4caa20…
10-04 02:16:08	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xc170a5…
10-04 01:05:11	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x8c7699…