Impressionable-Bias — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$69

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

Trades

185

lifetime

Volume

$3.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$56

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-05

last 08-01 21:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

45% 77% -$49

Politics

25% 80% +$19

Sports

18% 83% -$4

Crypto

10% 67% -$48

Tech

1% 100% +$13

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-01).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		-48	-$47	99¢	$-47	$0	06-08 03:24
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No		-42	-$15	21¢	$-9	+$6	05-16 17:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	2	$163	151	151	+0	No	-$93	07-31 00:06
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$153	79	79	+0	Yes	+$3	06-17 22:04
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	4	$110	59	59	+0	No	+$8	06-22 21:33
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$103	55	55	+0	No	+$3	06-21 02:42
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli?	1	$100	102	0	+102	Yes	+$2	06-22 21:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$98	129	0	+129	Yes	+$31	07-29 14:34
us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	2	$86	44	44	+0	No	+$0	06-22 21:33
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	3	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-04 13:37
bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	2	$66	33	33	+0	Yes	+$0	04-19 17:26
nor kbk ffk 2026 04 19 kbk	2	$63	32	32	+0	Yes	+$1	04-19 16:58
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$62	32	32	+0	No	+$2	04-15 22:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	9	$59	47	25	+23	Down	+$2	08-01 20:38
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	3	$53	31	31	+0	Max Holloway	+$9	07-12 04:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:40 UTC	5	$50	33	33	+0	Up	+$10	08-01 20:44
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	2	$48	24	24	+0	Houston Astros	+$0	04-21 00:26
Will Rodri join Barcelona?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	07-12 04:17
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	1	$47	0	48	-48	open	—	06-08 03:24
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics	2	$46	24	24	+0	Chicago White Sox	+$2	04-20 00:27
will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$45	26	26	+0	Yes	+$7	04-07 03:38
bun uni wol 2026 04 18 wol	2	$43	24	23	+0	Yes	+$4	04-18 15:58
nba phx okc 2026 04 19	2	$42	22	22	+0	Thunder	+$2	04-19 22:08
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	05-02 05:22
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	07-16 19:08
nba phi bos 2026 04 19	2	$41	21	21	+0	Celtics	+$1	04-19 19:19
nba por den 2026 04 06	2	$40	20	20	+0	Nuggets	+$0	04-07 03:50
iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	07-13 05:17
world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	2	$40	21	21	+0	Yes	+$0	07-06 19:27
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$40	23	23	+0	No	+$0	04-07 04:09
Trump goes to space in 2026?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	07-10 22:13
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	-$1	08-01 20:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 21:13:00	will marco rubio say venezuela or maduro during fox news my view appearance 20260731183534170	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xd19a0e…
08-01 21:12:38	will marco rubio say nato during fox news my view appearance 20260731183534172	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x63b0b8…
08-01 21:09:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 21:05 UTC	Up	SELL	29	33¢	$10	0xd2c14c…
08-01 21:07:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x309b84…
08-01 21:07:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc61929…
08-01 21:07:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x16d7fa…
08-01 21:00:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xa49c2d…
08-01 21:00:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x19c9ca…
08-01 21:00:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:55 UTC	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x5d3d23…
08-01 20:56:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:55 UTC	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xa1086b…
08-01 20:53:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x5d6a86…
08-01 20:52:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:50 UTC	Up	SELL	9	70¢	$6	0x30dcc6…
08-01 20:51:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x1491d3…
08-01 20:48:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:45 UTC	Down	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x8e4ce4…
08-01 20:46:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xff2971…
08-01 20:46:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xc24032…
08-01 20:44:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:40 UTC	Up	SELL	33	92¢	$30	0xc67783…
08-01 20:42:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xe4d913…
08-01 20:42:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x14f339…
08-01 20:42:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x0cad1d…
08-01 20:42:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x28c508…
08-01 20:38:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xf98068…
08-01 20:38:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xcf7b90…
08-01 20:38:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xacc7b5…
08-01 20:38:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x690378…
08-01 20:37:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	Up	SELL	25	77¢	$19	0xfe4483…
08-01 20:36:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x862176…
08-01 20:36:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xdd21e6…
08-01 20:36:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x4d8f3b…
08-01 20:36:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x335c0d…
08-01 20:34:00	Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x98c586…
08-01 20:27:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:25 UTC	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x395737…
08-01 20:22:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xd7fcdd…
08-01 20:16:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x86bfbf…
08-01 20:16:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x5421c4…
08-01 20:16:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x2b0322…
08-01 20:16:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x8003cf…
08-01 20:12:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:10 UTC	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x051657…
08-01 20:12:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:10 UTC	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xe58ae4…
08-01 20:12:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:10 UTC	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x09a9fe…
08-01 20:08:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xe32f88…
07-31 00:07:26	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	44	75¢	$33	0x438eb1…
07-31 00:06:35	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	151	23¢	$35	0xc8e0f2…
07-30 18:10:24	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	151	85¢	$128	0x07286b…
07-29 14:34:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	129	76¢	$98	0xbfba4c…
07-16 19:08:46	Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x99ca6b…
07-16 19:08:02	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0x766111…
07-13 05:17:53	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xdb32cd…
07-13 05:16:58	Will "Little Brother" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x4c061b…
07-12 04:26:41	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4cf2f2…
07-12 04:20:16	Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x7437d7…
07-12 04:17:20	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xc3aea4…
07-12 04:17:08	Will Rodri join Barcelona?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x8a9d0d…
07-12 04:16:29	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0xff99a8…
07-10 22:14:20	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	28	70¢	$20	0xafefb3…
07-10 22:13:31	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x494029…
07-10 22:13:11	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x8a50b8…
07-10 22:09:41	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd4adab…
07-10 21:35:17	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x57a81d…
07-10 20:59:02	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6aee4c…
07-09 22:03:41	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xae65c5…
07-09 18:35:02	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x4dc2fb…
07-09 16:03:25	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xf3dbc4…
07-08 17:35:20	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xcd0d8a…
07-06 19:27:38	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0x9db3f6…
07-06 03:51:11	Will Rodri join Barcelona?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x73452b…
07-06 03:41:43	mlb bos laa 2026 07 05	Boston Red Sox	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x653511…
07-06 03:25:58	mlb bos laa 2026 07 05	Boston Red Sox	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xae9d56…
07-05 20:47:05	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x6b9b08…
07-04 19:31:25	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x350225…
07-04 19:26:53	Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x295071…
07-04 19:24:14	Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xc81a90…
07-03 02:47:41	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x832941…
07-01 20:27:34	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x9b0d21…
06-22 21:40:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x5b0f39…
06-22 21:34:43	Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xa6aa33…
06-22 21:33:37	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0x3be4e3…
06-22 21:33:32	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	59	99¢	$59	0x6ccf22…
06-21 03:14:59	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	23	84¢	$19	0x819397…
06-21 03:09:55	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0x18ebb9…
06-21 03:04:58	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	BUY	44	97¢	$43	0x36f89b…
06-21 02:42:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0xe06293…
06-21 02:41:46	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x84a337…
06-17 22:21:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0x6f6d57…
06-17 22:16:43	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x63f1f9…
06-17 22:12:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x03ade6…
06-17 22:11:13	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x527e82…
06-17 22:04:14	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	79	98¢	$78	0xf6dfd3…
06-10 20:12:27	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	79	94¢	$75	0x4bc121…
06-08 03:24:51	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x87935a…
06-08 03:24:18	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	21	67¢	$14	0xff3911…
06-08 03:24:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x5b08b7…
06-05 02:01:09	mlb oak chc 2026 06 04	Athletics	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x69a6f0…
06-03 02:53:14	Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2b8163…
06-02 18:07:27	Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet	Coleman Wong	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x5e6147…
06-02 17:56:11	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x1a6843…
06-02 17:51:23	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x34f666…
06-01 18:16:35	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x0ca516…
06-01 14:32:37	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x06945d…
05-31 22:00:26	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2e1e03…